Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Presentation to: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Presentation to: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Presentation to: Arlington Economic Development Commission Mark C. White, Ph.D. Deputy Director Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University June

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June 12, 2018

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook

Mark C. White, Ph.D. Deputy Director Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University

Presentation to: Arlington Economic Development Commission

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Agenda

  • US economic trends
  • The Washington regional economy
  • The continued influence of the federal government
  • Additional ongoing challenges
  • The contributions of foreign-born, non-citizen

workers to the regional workforce

  • Looking ahead

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U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 2009 Dollars )

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $13,000 $13,500 $14,000 $14,500 $15,000 $15,500 $16,000 $16,500 $17,000 $17,500 $18,000

  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) % 2017 +2.3% 2018Q1 +2.2%

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125 130 135 140 145 150 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Month-to-Month Change (000s) Total (Millions)

US Payroll Jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

2016- 2017

2.36M

May

+223K Since 2010 +18.9 M

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The Washington Regional Economy

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GDP Trends since 2001

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Annual Job Change -Washington MSA

2,800 2,850 2,900 2,950 3,000 3,050 3,100 3,150 3,200 3,250 3,300 3,350

  • 10

10 30 50 70 90 110 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

April-18 Total: 3,308 K

000’s 000’s Apr 17- Apr 18

+38.7 K

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15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: April 2017 – April 2018

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Washington +1.2%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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2 4 6 8 10 12 5.0 – DC 3.9 – U.S. 3.5– SMD

3.1– MSA

2.4 – NVA

1.9 – ARL

Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

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Professional & Business Services drive the regional economy – April 2018

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 4.9% 4.9% 6.4% 8.5% 10.2% 10.4% 11.1% 13.7% 22.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activites Construction Other Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality State & Local Government Federal Government Education & Health Services Professional & Business Services

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Job Change by Sector April 2017 – April 2018 Washington MSA

0.0

  • 1.6

4.3 1.1 3.2 2.1 2.1 2.9 8.5 3.7

  • 4.6

9.7 7.3

  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade

  • Transp. & Util.

Information Financial Construction Other Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total = 38,700

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(Ranked by Size in 2017)

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Covered Employment in Washington MSA

Source: EMSI

1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 4.7% 5.0% 5.5% 8.8% 10.5% 13.0% 21.9% 22.6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activites Construction Other Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality Education & Health Services Government Professional & Business Services

2018 2008

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Covered Employment in Arlington

Source: EMSI

0.6% 0.8% 1.2% 3.0% 3.9% 5.1% 5.3% 6.4% 8.3% 10.5% 22.2% 32.6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Construction Information Financial Activites Transportation & Utilities Retail Trade Other Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government Professional & Business Services

2018 2008

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The Economic Influence of the Federal Government

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Federal Government Washington MSA

345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385 390

  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MOTYC Total Jobs (000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

February-18 Total: 362K

(000s) Feb 17- Feb 18

  • 6,600
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Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA 1980-2017 (Fiscal Years)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

75.0

$ Billions

TOTAL = $1,388.5 Billion

79.9 76.3 69.1 71.1

Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov

71.2 82.4 77.6

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Professional & Business Services Washington MSA

620 640 660 680 700 720 740 760 780

  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MOTYC Total Jobs (000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

April-18 Total: 751.5K

Apr 17- Apr 18

+7.3K

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Professional and Business Services Employment and Federal Employment in Washington, DC Metro Area Compared to the Previous Year, 2012-2018

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  • 20.0
  • 15.0
  • 10.0
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Month over the Year Employment Change (000s)

  • Prof. & Business Services

Federal

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

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The DC Metro is a leader in Cyber-security

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1,740 1,970 2,170 2,270 2,360 2,360 2,430 2,460 3,030 3,110 3,200 3,400 3,560 7,380 13,520

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Denver

  • St. Louis

Baltimore SF-Oakland Phoenix Charlotte Atlanta Philadelphia Los Angeles Boston Minneapolis Chicago Dallas New York Washington

Information Security Analysts (SOC 15-1122) by metro area, 2017

Source: U.S BLS Occupational Employment Statistics (May 2017) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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Additional ongoing challenges

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Population and employment trends in the Washington Metro Area

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 21

90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Population/Employment (2000=100)

Population Employment

Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates, US Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

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Population and employment trends in Arlington

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 22

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Arlington is fully immersed within the broader regional workforce

Where Arlington residents work (2015) Where Arlington workers live (2015)

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*19.5 percent of workers living in Arlington, also work in Arlington *15.4 percent of workers working in Arlington, also live in Arlington

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics, OnTheMap

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The region has experienced net domestic out-migration since 2013

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  • This trend started sooner in

places like Arlington- Alexandria and suburban Maryland.

  • People move here for jobs,

then choose a place to live in the region.

  • Many factors cause them to

consider other metro areas

  • Note the continued

importance of Int’l migration to the region’s continued growth

23,864 6,843 3,143

  • 23,209
  • 31,483
  • 31,492
  • 21,543

49,016 49,169 47,790 48,651 47,832 44,882 42,616 37,183 39,715 39,358 41,048 45,410 45,606 44,760

  • 40,000
  • 20,000

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

  • 40,000
  • 20,000

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017

Total Population Change Population Change Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase Net Domestic Migration Total Change

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2017

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Long commutes diminish quality of life

25 Source: US Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, Table S0802

5.5% 7.2% 7.6% 9.1% 9.3% 10.7% 11.2% 11.6% 12.2% 13.3% 13.8% 14.1% 14.5% 17.2% 17.8% 21.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Minneapolis Detroit Phoenix United States Dallas Miami Houston Philadelphia Seattle Los Angeles Boston Chicago Atlanta SF-Oakland Washington New York Proportion of workers with travel time to work of 60 or more minutes

Arlington 7.6%

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Washington MSA Arlington

Median House Sales Price

$560K $442 K May 2018

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s)

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The contributions of foreign-born, non-citizen workers to the Washington region’s workforce

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Source: 2016 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files

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0.7% 1.0% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 23.5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Bangladesh Canada Philippines Bolivia China Ethiopia Honduras Mexico Guatemala India El Salvador

Proportion of Total Foreign-Born, Non-Citizen Workers

Source: US Census Bureau ACS 2016, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Most Foreign Born, Non-Citizens originate from Latin America

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Source: 2016 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files

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Majority of foreign-born, non-citizen workers have been here 10 years or more

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0.2% 0.5% 1.5% 8.4% 22.2% 48.3% 17.2% 1.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

before 1960 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2014 2015 or later

Year of Entry, Non Citizen Foreign Born Workers

MWCOG Region

Source: US Census Bureau ACS 2016, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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Foreign-born, non-citizen workers are about as likely to have a post-secondary degree as all workers nationwide

29.4% 20.9% 16.2% 16.0% 17.5% 8.2% 16.0% 22.7% 27.4% 25.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Less than High School High school diploma/GED Associates degree or Some College Bachelors Degree Graduate or Professional Degree

Percentage of Workers

Non-Citizen, Foreign-Born Workers Greater Washington Region Workforce

Source: US Census Bureau ACS 2016, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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Several occupational groups rely heavily

  • n foreign-born, non-citizen workers

Occupation Group Foreign-Born, Non-Citizen Workers % of Total Occupation Workforce Construction & extraction 65,940 52.4% Cleaning & maintenence 52,750 48.6% Farming, fishing, & forestry 1,150 38.0% Food preparation & serving 43,770 32.6% Production 14,220 28.0% Healthcare support 10,300 21.6% Personal care & service 21,160 21.3% Transportation & material moving 22,870 20.7% Life, physical, & social science 10,890 18.1% Installation, maintenance, & repair 9,190 16.6% Sales 33,990 14.1% Computer & mathematical 21,520 10.1%

Source: 2016 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files

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Looking ahead

  • Now/This Year:
  • On a roll
  • Apple/Amazon
  • Federal Budget (We have one!)
  • Job growth constrained by labor

availability

  • Building permits not booming
  • Lack of housing inventory, lack of

affordable housing

  • Looking Forward
  • Economic Development = Talent Attraction
  • Quality of Life is key
  • Net effects of new tax laws on worker take

home

  • Increasing debate about 1099 work versus

employment

  • Immigration
  • Construction costs
  • AI
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Thank You Questions mwhite34@gmu.edu cra.gmu.edu