Q1 Earnings Presentation April 2020 2 General: This presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q1 Earnings Presentation April 2020 2 General: This presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q1 Earnings Presentation April 2020 2 General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward- historical information, descriptions of current circumstances
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General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains historical information, descriptions
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current circumstances and statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial
- results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its
entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s) management’s discussion and analysis for the annual and interim periods ended December 31, 2019, (Annual MD&A) and for the interim period ended March 31, 2020 (Q1 MD&A), and the company’s annual audited and interim financial statements for such periods available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts of the information contained in this presentation to the exclusion of others. Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward- looking statements” (including those under the headings Supply Conditions and Summary) within the meaning of applicable securities
- laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable
guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward- looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “an
- pportunity
exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”, “intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”, “will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of future events
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circumstances contain forward-looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead represent management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not
- ccur.
Actual
- utcomes
and results
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these statements will depend on a number of factors including those matters described under “Risks and Uncertainties”, in our Annual MD&A and in
- ur Q1 MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or
projected. Reference should be made to the other factors discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities. . Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward- looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or
- ral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required
by applicable securities laws. Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and net debt to capital ratio. Non-IFRS measures do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the “Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the information presented herein is based on or derived from statements by third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf by WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information or any other information
- r opinions contained herein.
Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated. Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm” mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our most recent Annual Report.
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0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% $250 $260 $270 $280 $290 $300 $310 $320 $330 $340
Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Expenditures % change
Demand conditions
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 J F M A M J J A S O N D M Starts
U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)
2018 2019 2020 Seasonally adjusted: 2018: 1,250 2019: 1,298
Leading indicator of Remodeling Activity
$B 4 Qtr Moving Improvements and Repairs 4 Qtr Moving rate of Change Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies Source: Statistics Canada, US Census Source: PPPC
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 J F M A M J J A S O N D MM tonnes
World Chemical Pulp Shipments
2018 2019 2020 2018: 61.1 2019: 63.5 2020: 9.63 YTD 100 200 300 400 500 600 J F M A M J J A S O N D MMfbm
North America Offshore Exports
2018 2019 2020 2018: 5,967 2019: 4,960 2020: 551 YTD
4 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2018 2019 Q12020 North America Curtailments Impact
Announced to date in Q1
Supply conditions
20 40 60 80 BC Canada US South US Total NA Lumber Supply
2018 2019 Down 26% Down 11% Down 1% Down 5% Up 2%
Source: WWPA, SFPA, COFI Source: Analyst reports, public filings, management estimates Billion fbm MMfbm
Volatile supply chain expected in short term
Source: Statistics Canada, US Census, FEA
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20
MMfbm
North America Offshore Imports
2018: 1,548 2019: 1,465
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* Adjusted EBITDA is defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity based compensation, restructuring and impairment charges and export duties.
Consolidated Financial Results
$ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q1-20 Q4-19 Lumber $ 106 $ 69 Panels 8 13 Pulp & Paper 11 (1) Corporate/Other 2 (1) Total $ 127 $ 80 Adjusted EBITDA margin 10.06% 7.09% Q1-20 Q4-19 Sales $ 1,195 $ 1,129 Cost and Expenses 1,182 1,152 Restructure/Impairment
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Operating earnings 13 (31) Finance Expense (16) (13) Other 12 (2) Earnings before Tax $ 9 $ (46) Tax recovery 3 4 Net earnings $ 12 $ (42)
Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment
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Q1 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
Improved pricing and fibre costs
$ millions
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Q1-20 versus Q4-19
$ millions unless
- therwise indicated
Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Change Lumber Production (MMfbm) 1,501 1,423 78 BC operations on full schedule most of the quarter compared to variable operating schedules in Q4 Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,426 1,385 41 Increase SYP shipments, some delays in SPF from rail blockades Adjusted EBITDA $127 $80 $47 Selling prices, favorable Canadian exchange rate movements, improved fiber costs Cash flow from operations ($122) $40 ($162) Seasonal log inventory build consumes working capital Capital Expenditure $59 $87 ($28) Significant projects underway in prior year, carryover spend moderating in second half Net Debt Net Debt to Capital $1,325 33% $1,051 30% $274 3% Net debt increased for working capital build, additional liquidity available, significant financial flexibility and wide margin of safety Cumulative duties on deposit US$ $407 $373 $34 Deposits continue at 23.56% until AR1 finalized
Limited impacts of COVID-19 in the quarter
8 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000
2017 2018 2019 Q119 Q419 Q120
Available liquidity Bank lines Cash Additional Facility
Liquidity
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Term loan Notes Revolvers
Scheduled maturities
Ample financial flexibility
Cash consists of cash and short-term investments less cheques issued in excess of funds on deposit.
0% 20% 40% 60% 2017 2018 2019 Q119 Q419 Q120 Financial Covenants Actual Maximum Additional liquidity levers
- Approximately $125M of income tax refunds pending
- Seasonal log inventory draw down through Q2 and
Q3
- Government payment deferral programs start in Q2
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Summary
✓ Fibre costs continue to improve sequentially ✓ Pulp markets showing signs of improvement compared to second half of 2019 ✕ COVID-19 impacts late in the quarter necessitates downtime across all segments ✕ Uncertain business environment going forward ✓ Operational excellence on variable schedules ✓ Preserve and manage liquidity conservatively, working capital contraction ✓ Complete Dudley and Opelika projects