- Victory Nickel Inc.
Victory Nickel Inc. The Right Product. The Right Place. April 2014 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Victory Nickel Inc. The Right Product. The Right Place. April 2014 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Victory Nickel Inc. The Right Product. The Right Place. April 2014 The Right Time. Company Profile Victory Nickel NI:TSX Share Capital Structure Shares Outstanding ~572
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Company Profile –Victory Nickel
NI:TSX – Share Capital Structure
Shares Outstanding ~572 million Fully Diluted Shares* ~742 million Market Capitalization (Apr. 11, 2014) $34.3 million Cash (as at Dec. 31, 2013) $1.4 million
Major Shareholders
- Nuinsco Resources Ltd.
10.5%
- A&M International
9.7%
- Jien International
9.3%
- Sea Shell Limited
8.5%
- Management & Directors
2.0%
*~32 M options ($0.08 average exercise price); ~113 M warrants ($0.035 exercise price); ~$4 M convertible note ($0.10 conversion price)
Victory Silica Ltd.
(100%)
Victory Nickel Inc.
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Company History
From Nickel to Frac Sand
- 2007: Victory Nickel created with 3 nickel
projects, including Minago in Manitoba
- 2009: Feasibility study for Minago
Significant frac sand by-product value identified
- 2011: Minago permitted for production
- 2011-2012: Meaningful decline in nickel
prices
- 2012: Victory Silica created to help unlock
value of frac sand at Minago
- 2013: A viable, multi-phased frac sand
business emerged, independent of, yet complimentary to Minago
- Very strong market fundamentals for frac sand
- Over 16% annual demand growth forecast for Canada
- New frac sand story with extreme value
- Near-term cash flow: plant commissioning well underway
- Experienced management: frac sand development, operating and
marketing expertise
- Strong peer group valuation & market performance
- Large domestic resource: Minago a strategic asset
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Why Victory Silica?
Potential to become the largest supplier of the highest quality frac sand for delivery in Canada
- Experienced Management
Victory Silica Limited
René R. Galipeau /Chairman
35+ years mining experience with Hudson Bay, Breakwater Resources, Lac Minerals, Rio Algom. Current Vice-Chairman and CEO of Victory Nickel.
Ken Murdock /CEO & Director
Engineer with over 25 years experience in the aggregate/construction & oilfield materials industries. President IM&M Consulting (raw materials acquisition, waste disposal and manufacturing consultant to industrial mineral, glass and oilfield industries). Formerly with Canfrac Sands Ltd. (operations), United Industrial Services Ltd. (design, permitting, construction, operation and marketing of a silica sand project in Peace River) and Lafarge Cement. M.Eng., McGill University
- D. Brent Lock /Vice-President, Marketing
Extensive marketing experience in the frac sand industry. Formerly Vice-President, Operations / Marketing & General Manager with Canfrac Sands Ltd. Prior to that, held a variety of operations and marketing positions in the oil & gas sector over the course of 26 years for companies including Gulf Canada Resources Ltd., Amerada Hess Canada Ltd. and Apache Canada.
Phillip Birmingham /General Manager, Seven Persons Frac Sand Facility
Diverse background, including seven years with the British Army's Royal Mechanical and Electrical Engineers and operations and management positions with Crane Canada, Allwest Compressor Services and most recently as General Manager with 3R Sand Ltd. (the previous operator of the Seven Persons frac sand facility) and Clean Earth Environmental Ltd.
Troy Bergen /Plant Manager, Seven Persons Frac Sand Facility
Operated the Seven Persons frac sand facility between 2008 and 2010 with previous owner 3R Sand Ltd. Prior to that, he was Operations Manager with Clean Earth Environmental Ltd. 5
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Shale Gas / Tight Oil Revolution
Frac Sand Boom
- Unconventional ‘shale gas’ and ‘tight oil’ previously uneconomic to recover at a large
scale
- Efficiency gains in horizontal drilling and the introduction of ‘fracking’ helped unlock
vast natural gas and oil resources
- The rapid implementation of technology changed the North American energy
landscape, with a “sand boom” being a resulting factor
- “Unconventional gas production reached 15% of worldwide production in 2010, and is
expected to rise to 80% by 2040.” (The Globe & Mail, August 21, 2013)
- The Freedonia Group reports that frac sand consumption in North America increased
by 323% between 2007 and 2012, and is expected to increase by 73% by 2017
Frac sand is an effective way to participate in ‘unconventional’ oil and gas production growth
- r ‘fracking’ is a technique used in the development of oil
& gas formations
- . Proppant
(such as frac sand) holds or ‘props’ the formation open, increases porosity, and increases
- il/gas flow to the wellhead
- must meet unique API specifications such as
- ,
and for use in the oil & gas industry as a proppant
What is ‘Fracking’? Frac Sand?
Not all sand makes frac sand!
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Victory Silica’s Frac Sand
30/50 20/40
- North American Proppant Demand (million tons)
% Annual Growth Item 2007 2012 2017 2007-2012 2012-2017 Proppant Demand 6.98 29.55 51.20 33.5 11.6 By Country: U.S. 6.13 26.63 44.97 34.1 11.1 Canada 0.85 2.92 6.23 28.1 16.3 By Type: Sand 6.14 26.78 46.95 34.3 11.9 Ceramic 0.82 2.64 4.02 26.3 8.8 Other 0.02 0.14 0.23 43.9 10.6
Source: The Freedonia Group, Inc.
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Proppant / Frac Sand Market
Historical & Projected Demand
Double digit annual proppant demand growth expected with Canada leading the way
Oh, Canada!
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Cowen & Co. Frac Sand Price Index
Frac sand pricing up 4% in March 2014
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North American Shale Basins
Initial Supply Opportunities for Victory Silica
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, B.C., North Dakota
Winnipeg Minago Wisconsin Mine Medicine Hat (Seven Persons)
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Canadian Market Opportunity
- Double digit demand growth for frac sand in Canada
- Robust natural gas production growth driven by West Coast Liquified Natural Gas (LNG)
terminal build-out over the coming years
- Development of the Duvernay resource play as well as other ‘liquids-rich’ shale plays
- Barriers to Entry
- Established business relationships with energy service companies (i.e. pressure pumpers)
and exploration & production (E&P) companies
- Securing supply of or holding rights to high-quality, permitted sand resources
- Logistics agreements
- Victory Silica Competitive Advantages
- First mover advantage in processing highest quality Wisconsin sand in Canada
- Minimizing handling of finished sand maintains product quality
- Vertical integration to ensure supply of Wisconsin sand for end-users through the cycle
- Superior location close to customers with significant finished product storage capacity
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Victory Silica Business Plan
Phased Approach – Clear Path for Growth
Phase 1: Market Entry
Seven Persons (dry) Plant:
processing infrastructure in Alberta (500 ktpa)
Ship contracted (wet) sand
from Wisconsin
Rapid payback on modest
capital investment
Strategic storage capacity
Phase 2: Vertical Integration
Wisconsin mine Joint Venture Security of highest quality sand
supply
Margin enhancement
Phase 3: Growth
Winnipeg (dry) Plant:
processing infrastructure in Manitoba (1,040 ktpa)
Site identified with favourable
logistics
Initially supplied from
Wisconsin
Minago
Longer-term upside Potential to process at
Winnipeg Plant
Currently looking at smaller
pit configuration to target frac sand only
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- Processing purchased import wet sand
(concentrate) from Wisconsin
- Seven Persons Plant
- Fully-functioning sand plant on 22.4 acres
- 22,000 tons product storage capacity
- $4.0 M capex to take dry plant capacity to
500,000 tpa (complete)
- First sales made: March, 2014
- Commissioning of plant underway
Phase 1: Market Entry
Seven Persons Plant – Medicine Hat, Alberta
Phase 1 (Q1/2014) Working Capital US$4.3 million Annual Sales Capacity 500,000 tons Estimated Margin $25/ton
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Phase 1:
Milestones
- Wisconsin sand purchase
agreement
- Sand washing agreement
- Wisconsin transload agreement
- Rail agreement
- Rail siding agreement
- Railcar leasing agreement
- Seven Persons trucking agreement
- Equipment leasing agreements
- Plant construction completed
- First sand deliveries from Wisconsin
unloaded
- Plant commissioning in progress
- Product sales ongoing
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- Enter into 50:50 JV with current Wisconsin sand
supplier to secure supply and enhance margins
- JV partner’s contribution: Four permitted
properties with highest-quality Wisconsin sand
- Resource estimate: 4 million tons per parcel
- Victory Nickel’s contribution: Finance and build
frac sand wet plant at Wisconsin mine
- Wet plant will be moveable to other mines
Phase 2: Vertical Integration
Wisconsin Mine Joint Venture
Phase 2 Capex US$4.4 million Annual Sales Capacity 500,000 tons Estimated Margin $>25/ton
Source: Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey
- Phase 3: Growth
Winnipeg Processing Site
- Build second processing facility in Winnipeg
- Lease existing rail-supported industrial site
- Construct new dry plant – 18 mos. from start
- Consider logistics company participation
- Supply from Wisconsin and area
- Minago longer-term supply option
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Phase 3 Capex US$26.1 million Working Capital US$15.3 million Annual Sales Capacity 1,040,000 tons Estimated Margin $>25/ton
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Minago Development – 100-year+ frac sand potential Advanced custom processing discussions:
Potential to reach new markets Fixed production cost, contract-based, no capital cost
US processing facility:
Reach active Pennsylvania market
1,000,000 tons annual capacity; ideal location identified with available infrastructure, capital cost of ~ $32 million
Acquire and permit additional well located mines supplying high quality sand from Wisconsin/Minnesota Potential future consolidation of industry
Victory Silica
Future Growth / Consolidation Opportunities
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Victory Silica
Peer Group Performance
- Preferred Sands/Winn Bay
$200 M acquisition Jan. 2012 (private)
- US Silica
IPO: Raised $200 M Feb. 2012 ($1.9 B market cap)
- Hi-Crush
IPO: Raised $225 M Aug. 2012 ($1.4 B market cap)
- Emerge Energy Services
IPO: Raised $140 M May 2013 ($1.3 B market cap)
- Athabasca Minerals
Canadian aggregates supplier ($55 M market cap)
- Calendar Year 2013
($US) Emerge Energy Services (NYSE: EMES) Hi-Crush Partners (NYSE: HCLP) US Silica Holdings (NYSE: SLCA) Victory Silica (Forecast) Phase 1,2
(2014)
Phase 3
(2016)
Phase 1,2,3 Cash Raised on IPO Capex Requirements $140 M $225 M $200 M $ 8.5 M $ 26.1 M $ 34.6 M Frac Sand Tons Sold 2,651,000 1,849,075 2,960,800 500,000 1,040,000 1,540,000
- Adj. EBITDA
- Adj. EBITDA Frac Sand Only
$85 M $69 M $69 M $69 M $161 M $116 M $14.5 M**1 $26 M $40.5 M** Forecast EBITDA / Ton Sold Actual EBITDA / Ton Sold $26.21 $37.41 $39.03 $29.00** $34.22* $25.00 $34.22* $26.30** $34.22* Market Cap (Mar 21, 2014) Enterprise Value (EV) $1,312 M $1,407 M $1,411 M $1,534 M $1,914 M $ 2,137 M $37 M
- EV/EBITDA
16.5x 22.2x 13.3x 17.3x* 17.3x* 17.3x* Implied Enterprise Value @ EBITDA/ton estimated by Victory Silica @ known industry average EBITDA/ton ($34.22) $ 251 M $ 297 M $ 451 M $ 617 M $ 702 M $ 913 M Implied Price/Share @ EBITDA/ton estimated by Victory Silica @ known industry average EBITDA/ton ($34.22)
*average of Emerge, Hi-Crush, and US Silica **includes Phase 2 margin improvement
1 Before Nuinsco debt repayment
$ 0.44 $ 0.51 $ 0.78 $ 1.07 $ 1.22 $ 1.59
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Victory Silica
Relative and Implied Valuation
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Minago
Nickel / Frac Sand Co-Production
One of Canada’s undeveloped sulphide nickel resources Positive completed; for production
a significant value driver: US$2.90/lb Ni in co-product value
based on feasibility study
: Manitoba; road, rail, power access
11.2 million tonne frac sand resource, potential
Potential for smaller, less capital intensive pit configuration to target frac sand only
Valuable “ ” on nickel at $10.00/lb+
- Minago Project
Co-Product: Frac Sand
Feasibility Study Highlights
- 11.2 million tonnes marketable frac
sand in pit footprint alone
- Mined over first three years
- Sales over 10 years
- Mine gate margin per tonne ~$63
- Annual net revenue ~$70 M
- Processing cost/tonne = $6.50
- Co-product value per pound of nickel
= $4.04 (US$3.68); optimized: $3.18 (US$2.90)
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- Minago Project
Frac Sand Potential
Existing resource within current pit shell: 15 Mt Existing & proposed quarry leases: 75 Mt Proposed quarry exploration permits: 475 Mt Entire land package (mineral leases + mining claims): 2 Bt
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- Initial sales made
March 2014, clear path forward
- U.S. peers
U.S. Silica, Hi-Crush and Emerge Energy services; Canadian aggregates peer Athabasca Minerals
- Minago a longer-term strategic asset;
Potential for smaller, less capital intensive pit configuration to target frac sand only
- !"# currently investors have a ‘free call
- ption’ on Minago’s advanced nickel sulphide project
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Victory Silica
Investment Summary
- Building
Canada’s Next Nickel Producer
Victory Nickel Inc.
- Company Profile
Nickel Projects
Four Advanced Sulphide Nickel Projects
Over one billion pounds of nickel in Measured and Indicated resources and 300 million pounds of Inferred resources, NI 43-101 compliant
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- Minago Project
The Property
- Well-located
- Sulphide nickel deposit
- Exceptional metallurgy
- Open pit and underground mining
potential
- Bankable feasibility study on open
pit only
- Exceptional exploration upside
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- Minago Project
Reserves and Production Upside
- Nose Deposit open pit:
8.6-year mine life
- Nose Deposit U/G (inferred
resource)
- North Limb: Exploration target
- Mineralization open to west,
north and at depth
- Combined resources projected
mine life of <20 years
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- Minago Project
Feasibility Study Optimization
Minago Sulphide Nickel Project: Economic Summary Comparison Base Case
- Dec. 14, 20091
($million except % & yrs)
Base Case July 19, 20111,2
($million except % & yrs)
Undiscounted cash flow 917.7 1,418.4 NPV @ 8% 293.8 513.0 NPV @ 6% 402.6 669.3 NPV @ 4% 538.0 864.6 IRR 17.66% 22.4% Pre-Production Capital 593.0 585.1 Breakeven price $5.06 $4.28 Open Pit mine life 7 years 8.6 years
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1. Three-year trailing average US$ metal prices and exchange rate as of market close December 10, 2009: Ni: $11.19/lb; Cu: $2.91/lb; Pd: $322.4/oz; Pt: $1,353.98/oz; Au: $836.25/oz; Co: $27.73/lb; Ag: $14.25/oz; $Can/$US exchange rate: 1.097 2. Updated resource
- Minago Project
Cost Summary
C1 Cash Cost Per lb Nickel Feasibility Study After Optimization Net of Credits * US $1.94 (C$2.12) US $2.20 (C$2.41) Metal By-Product Credits US $0.72 (C$0.79) US $0.77 (C$0.85) Frac Sand By-Product Value US $3.68 (C$4.04) US $2.90 (C$3.18) Cash Cost per lb Nickel Before Credits US $6.34 (C$6.95) US $5.87 (C$6.44)
*Net C1 costs increase when metal production increases without corresponding frac sand increase (same size pit)
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René R. Galipeau /CEO & Director –Victory Nickel Inc.
30+ years mining experience with Hudson Bay, Breakwater Resources, Lac Minerals, Rio Algom
Steve Harapiak /President & COO –Victory Nickel Inc.
Engineer with 30+ years experience, including Hudson Bay, Noranda, Denison and CEO of Potash Corp. (Crown Corp.)
Alison Sutcliffe /VP Finance & CFO –Victory Nickel Inc.
CA with 20+ years experience, most recently with Dundee Corp.
Paul L. Jones /VP Exploration –Victory Nickel Inc.
Geologist and QP with 25+ years experience with more than 20 juniors
Sean Stokes /VP Corporate Affairs & Corporate Secretary –Victory Nickel Inc.
20+ years communications/business development/finance experience, incl. Tiberon Minerals, Liberty Minerals, Scandinavian Minerals
David Mchaina /VP Environment & Sustainable Development –Victory Nickel Inc.
Ph.D. with 20+ years experience, including Boliden, Westmin, Goldcorp
Victory Nickel
Management Team
- Victory Nickel
Qualified Independent Board
Cynthia Thomas /Chair
MBA, 20+ years international mining and project finance, former Director Mining Investment Banking – ScotiaMcLeod
René R. Galipeau /CEO & Director Peter R. Jones
Engineer, former CEO of Hudbay Minerals, 40+ years mining experience with Hudbay, Cominco, Cape Breton Development, Granduc Operating Co. and Adanac Molybdenum
Michael Anderson
Lawyer, nine years as General Counsel and Secretary with Denison Mines, previously a partner with Gowling Lafleur Henderson LLP, in- house counsel with John Labatt, General Counsel for Swift Canadian
Roland Horst
35 years mining experience as a CEO, banker, investment banker and geologist, current CEO of CBay Minerals 31
- Disclaimer
Some of the statements contained in the following material may be "forward-looking statements." All statements, other than statements of historical fact, that address activities, events or developments that Victory Nickel believes, expects or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "seek," "anticipate," "believe," "plan," "estimate," "expect," and "intend" and statements that an event or result "may," "will," "can," "should," "could," or "might" occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. These forward-looking statements reflect the current expectations or beliefs of Victory Nickel based on information currently available to Victory Nickel. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause the actual results of Victory Nickel to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements, and even if such actual results are realized or substantially realized, there can be no assurance that they will have the expected consequences to,
- r effects on Victory Nickel. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from current expectations include, among other
things, failure to successfully complete intended financings, capital and other costs varying significantly from estimates, production rates varying from estimates, changes in world copper and/or gold markets, changes in equity markets, uncertainties relating to the availability and costs of financing needed in the future, equipment failure, unexpected geological conditions, imprecision in resource estimates, success of future development initiatives, competition, operating performance of facilities, environmental and safety risks, delays in obtaining or failure to obtain necessary permits and approvals from government authorities, and other development and operating risks. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made and, except as may be required by applicable securities laws, Victory Nickel disclaims any intent or
- bligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise. Although
Victory Nickel believes that the assumptions inherent in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and accordingly undue reliance should not be put on such statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. Victory Nickel resources are as follows: Minago: Measured: 11.1 million tonnes grading 0.56% Ni, Indicated: 43.1 million tonnes grading 0.51% Ni, Inferred: 14.6 million tonnes grading 0.53% Ni; Lynn Lake: Measured: 1.0 million tonnes grading 0.76% Ni, Indicated: 21.9 million tonnes grading 0.56% Ni, Inferred: 8.1 million tonnes grading 0.51% Ni; Mel: Indicated: 4.3 million tonnes grading 0.88% Ni, Inferred: 1.0 million tonnes grading 0.84% Ni; Lac Rocher: 0.29 million tonnes grading 1.23% Ni, Indicated: 0.51 million tonnes grading 1.05% Ni, inferred: 0.44 million tonnes grading 0.65% Ni. The mineral resources were estimated using the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum (CIM), CIM Standards on Mineral Resources and Reserves, Definitions and Guidelines prepared by the CIM Standing Committee on Reserve Definitions and adopted by CIM Council December 11, 2005.
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