Utahs Demographic Transformation: A View into the Future Utah State - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Utah’s Demographic Transformation: A View into the Future Utah State Board of Regents Utah State Board of Regents Russell C. Taylor Health Sciences Building Dixie State College March 26, 2009 Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. University of Utah

Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah 2

America’s Changing Population America s Changing Population � Confluence of four demographic trends are dramatically transforming the American population transforming the American population 1. Record numbers of immigrants – beginning in the 1980s and continuing for the foreseeable future 2. Aging of the Post WWII Baby Boomers 3. Differential fertility levels and trends 4. Increase in life expectancy I i lif t 3 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

Cumulative Impact � “New Utah” p � Much more diversity along many dimensions � Age � Age � Nativity � Culture � Language � Ethnicity � S � Socioeconomics i i 4 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

Generational Shift Generational Shift � Youth of today are experiencing this increasing diversity, while older generations have not. while older generations have not. � The nation is in the midst of an extraordinary demographic transformation and embarking on a great multicultural experiment. i � Youth of today, as adults, will be asked to carry a greater demographic burden than the generation of their parents demographic burden than the generation of their parents. � Changes are cumulative and irreversible. � Changes are cumulative and irreversible. 5 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

Overview Overview � Utah context U h � Regional growth trends � I � Immigration i ti � Racial / Ethnic diversity � Age structure � Age structure � A view into Utah’s future 6 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

Utah: Signature Demographics Remain – Ut h Si t D hi R i But is Trending Toward the Nation Median Age 2000 2007 40 36.6 35.3 27.1 28.5 28 5 30 30 27 1 20 Utah Utah U.S. U.S. Source: U.S. Bureau of the 7 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah Census, various.

Median Age at First Marriage: Median Age at First Marriage: Utah Trends Towards Nation Source: U.S. Bureau of the 8 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah Census, various.

Utah and U.S. Annual Births: 1940-2008 2008 US Births U.S. Boom U.S. Echo Exceed 1957 Exceed 1957 Peak: 1957 Peak: 1990 4.5 60 60 4 4 3.5 50 ds) 3 3 irths (thousand s) Births (millions 40 Utah 2.5 US 30 2 Utah Bi US B 1.5 20 1 10 10 Ut h B Utah Boom Utah Echo Ut h E h Ut h E h Utah Echo Echo E h 0.5 Peak: 1962 Peak: 1980-2 Peak: 2012?? 0 0 1940 1940 1950 1950 1960 1960 1970 1970 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the National Center for Health Statistics (revised 1/2009). 9 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

Utah & U.S. Annual Births:18 Years Prior U.S. Peak: U S Trough: U.S. Trough: 2008 U.S. Peak: 1975 1993 Birth Year 1957 Birth Year 1973 Birth Year 1990 60 60 4.5 4.5 4 50 3.5 (thousands) 40 3 s (millions) Utah US 2.5 30 30 Utah Births US Births 2 20 1.5 1 10 Utah Peak: 1979 Utah Peak: 2000 0.5 1961 Birth Year 1982 Birth Year 0 0 0 0 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the National Center for Health Statistics (revised 1/2009). 10 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

Utah Population 18-24 Years Old: Historical & Projected Historical & Projected 500,000 18-24: High Economic Growth, High Fertility 18 24 B 18-24: Baseline li 18-24: Low Economic Growth, Low Fertility Cumulative Births 18-24 years prior Bureau of Census 2005 400,000 GOPB 2005 300,000 200,000 Age wave hits college age 2016 - 2025 100,000 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008. 11 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

Utah School Age Population: Historical & Projected Historical & Projected 900,000 High Economic Growth and Fertility High Economic Growth and Fertility 2002 Baseline 800,000 Low Economic Growth and Fertility 2005 GOPB Baseline 700 000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 400 000 300,000 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 Sources: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002; GOPB 2005 Baseline Projections. 12 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

Utah Emerges as Part of a Net In-Migration Region Net In Migration Region � Until about 1970, Utah 9 0 � Remained somewhat geographically isolated, as well as economically specialized (extractive industries, federal government, etc.) � Was vulnerable to booms and busts of these industries and had corresponding periods of in and out migration. � Since 1970, Utah (and the intermountain region) has � Since 1970, Utah (and the intermountain region) has � Generated more rapid economic growth than the nation, � Developed a more diversified economy, � Become more fully integrated into the global economy, and � Has emerged as a consistent net in-migration region . 13 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

U.S. Population by Region: 1900-2030 160 160 • West + South > 50% National Population by 1980. • About 2/3 of the national growth from 1900 to 2000 140 occurred in the South and West. occurred in the South and West. 120 • Nearly 90% of the national growth sons from 2000 to 2030 is projected to occur in the South and West. in the South and West. 100 ns of Pers South 80 West Million Midwest Midwest 60 Northeast 40 20 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005. 14 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

Population in the Intermountain West: 1900 - 2030 12 Arizona and Colorado generated over half (53%) of of growth of the Mountain Division in the 20 th century. 10 10 Between 2000 and 2030, the populations of Arizona and Nevada are projected to double. ons 8 ons of Perso Arizona Colorado 6 Nevada Millio U Utah h New Mexico 4 Idaho Montana M t 2 Wyoming 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 15 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.

Net Migration, Natural Increase, and Population Change: Annual Rates for Utah (1950-2008) 5% Net Migration Population Change 4% Natural Increase Natural Increase 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% -1% -2% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 16 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah Source: BEBR, University of Utah Analysis of UPEC data.

“I m m igrants Turn Utah into Mini-Melting Pot” i t Mi i M lti P t” By Haya El Nasser, USA TODAY 9/ 15/ 2006 SALT LAKE CITY — In the shadow of the the shadow of the Mormon faith's majestic headquarters, the fountain at the center of the Gateway Plaza h G Pl outdoor mall is a popular backdrop for weddings. On a scorching day, g y, Hispanic and Anglo children run side by side through the pulsating sprays of water. f t 17 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah 18

U.S. Foreign Born Population: 1900 U S Foreign Born Population: 1900 – 2007 2007 25% 45 38.1 Undocumented in 2005 = 11.1 million Population n Milli Million 40 40 or 31.1% of the foreign born (Millions) population and 3.8% of the total 20% 35 population 30 30 reign Born ( are of Total 14.7% 15% 12.6% 25 20 20 n Born Sha mber of For 10% 15 10 0 Num 5% 5% Foreig 5 0% 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations. 19 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah

Utah Foreign Born Population: 1900 – 2007 Utah Foreign Born Population: 1900 2007 25% 250 215 757 215,757 U d Undocumented in 2005 = 75,000 to t d i 2005 75 000 t Population housands) 100,000 or 39% to 52% of the foreign 19% 20% 200 born population and 3% to 4% of total 18% Utah population ign Born (Th are of Total 15% 150 13% gn Born Sha 10% 10% mber of Fore 10% 100 8% 7% 6% 3% 4% 4% 5% 50 4% 4% Num Forei 3% 0% 0 1900 1900 1910 1910 1920 1920 1930 1930 1940 1940 1950 1950 1960 1960 1970 1970 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2007 2007 Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations. 20 Perlich, BEBR, University of Utah