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USING SIMULATION TO STUDY SERVICE-RATE CONTROLS TO STABILIZE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

USING SIMULATION TO STUDY SERVICE-RATE CONTROLS TO STABILIZE PERFORMANCE IN A SINGLE-SERVER QUEUE WITH TIME-VARYING ARRIVAL RATE Ni Ma and Ward Whitt Columbia University December 5, 2015 Ni Ma and Ward Whitt (CU) Stabilizing Performance


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USING SIMULATION TO STUDY SERVICE-RATE CONTROLS TO STABILIZE PERFORMANCE IN A SINGLE-SERVER QUEUE WITH TIME-VARYING ARRIVAL RATE

Ni Ma and Ward Whitt

Columbia University

December 5, 2015

Ni Ma and Ward Whitt (CU) Stabilizing Performance December 5, 2015 1 / 31

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Outline

1

Motivation Stabilizing Performance Service-Rate Controls

2

The Model

3

Simulation Methods For Nonstationary Models Generating the Arrival Process Generating the Service Times

4

Simulation Experiments

5

Simulation Results

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Motivation

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Motivation: Stabilizing Performance

Given the time-varying arrival rates, we are interested in an algorithm that can stabilize performance of the queueing system, e.g. expected delay, delay probability, expected queue length.

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Motivation: Stabilizing Performance

Given the time-varying arrival rates, we are interested in an algorithm that can stabilize performance of the queueing system, e.g. expected delay, delay probability, expected queue length. Earlier papers that study server-staffing to stabilize performance in multi-server queues with time-varying arrivals.

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Motivation: Stabilizing Performance

Given the time-varying arrival rates, we are interested in an algorithm that can stabilize performance of the queueing system, e.g. expected delay, delay probability, expected queue length. Earlier papers that study server-staffing to stabilize performance in multi-server queues with time-varying arrivals.

  • M. Defraeye and I. Van Niewenhuyse (2013) Controlling excessive waiting

times in small service systems with time-varying demand: an extension of the ISA algorithm. Decision Support Systems 54(4), 1558 – 1567.

  • Y. Liu and W. Whitt (2012) Stabilizing customer abandonment in

many-server queues with time-varying arrivals. Oper. Res. 60(6), 1551 – 1564. O.B. Jennings, A. Mandelbaum, W.A. Massey and W. Whitt (1996) Server staffing to meet time-varying demand. Manag. Sci. 42(10), 1383 –1394.

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Motivation: Service-Rate Controls

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Motivation: Service-Rate Controls

Problem: systems with only a few servers or with inflexible staffing.

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Motivation: Service-Rate Controls

Problem: systems with only a few servers or with inflexible staffing. In many applications, it is possible to change the processing rate.

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Motivation: Service-Rate Controls

Problem: systems with only a few servers or with inflexible staffing. In many applications, it is possible to change the processing rate.

Example (use a service-rate control)

1 Hospital Surgery Rooms 2 Airport Security Inspection Lines Ni Ma and Ward Whitt (CU) Stabilizing Performance December 5, 2015 5 / 31

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Our Contributions

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Our Contributions

We use simulation to study service-rate controls to stabilize performance in a single-server queue with time-varying arrival rates.

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Our Contributions

We use simulation to study service-rate controls to stabilize performance in a single-server queue with time-varying arrival rates. We conduct simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of alternative service-rate controls.

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Our Contributions

We use simulation to study service-rate controls to stabilize performance in a single-server queue with time-varying arrival rates. We conduct simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of alternative service-rate controls. We develop an efficient algorithm for simulating a time-varying queue with a service-rate control.

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The Model

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The Gt/Gt/1 queue

Gt/Gt/1 Single-Server Queueing Model

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The Gt/Gt/1 queue

Gt/Gt/1 Single-Server Queueing Model Single server

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The Gt/Gt/1 queue

Gt/Gt/1 Single-Server Queueing Model Single server Time-varying arrival rate function

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The Gt/Gt/1 queue

Gt/Gt/1 Single-Server Queueing Model Single server Time-varying arrival rate function First-Come First-Served service policy

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The Gt/Gt/1 queue

Gt/Gt/1 Single-Server Queueing Model Single server Time-varying arrival rate function First-Come First-Served service policy Unlimited waiting space

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The Gt/Gt/1 queue

Gt/Gt/1 Single-Server Queueing Model Single server Time-varying arrival rate function First-Come First-Served service policy Unlimited waiting space Service rate is subject to control

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The Gt/Gt/1 queue

Gt/Gt/1 Single-Server Queueing Model Single server Time-varying arrival rate function First-Come First-Served service policy Unlimited waiting space Service rate is subject to control i.i.d. service requirements separate from the service rate

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The Arrival Process

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The Arrival Process

A time-transformation of a stationary counting process: A(t) ≡ Na(Λ(t)) ≡ Na( t λ(s) ds), t ≥ 0, (1) where Λ is the cumulative arrival rate function: Λ(t) = t

0 λ(s) ds,

t ≥ 0.

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The Arrival Process

A time-transformation of a stationary counting process: A(t) ≡ Na(Λ(t)) ≡ Na( t λ(s) ds), t ≥ 0, (1) where Λ is the cumulative arrival rate function: Λ(t) = t

0 λ(s) ds,

t ≥ 0. Na is a rate-1 counting process with unit jumps.

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The Arrival Process

A time-transformation of a stationary counting process: A(t) ≡ Na(Λ(t)) ≡ Na( t λ(s) ds), t ≥ 0, (1) where Λ is the cumulative arrival rate function: Λ(t) = t

0 λ(s) ds,

t ≥ 0. Na is a rate-1 counting process with unit jumps. check: E[A(t)] = E[Na(Λ(t))] = Λ(t) = t

0 λ(s)ds.

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The Arrival Process

A time-transformation of a stationary counting process: A(t) ≡ Na(Λ(t)) ≡ Na( t λ(s) ds), t ≥ 0, (1) where Λ is the cumulative arrival rate function: Λ(t) = t

0 λ(s) ds,

t ≥ 0. Na is a rate-1 counting process with unit jumps. check: E[A(t)] = E[Na(Λ(t))] = Λ(t) = t

0 λ(s)ds.

All the stochastic variability is separated from the deterministic arrival rate function.

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The Service Process

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The Service Process

Queue Length and Departure Process Q(t) ≡ A(t) − D(t), t ≥ 0, (2) D(t) ≡ Ns( t µ(s)1{Q(s)>0} ds), t ≥ 0, (3)

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The Service Process

Queue Length and Departure Process Q(t) ≡ A(t) − D(t), t ≥ 0, (2) D(t) ≡ Ns( t µ(s)1{Q(s)>0} ds), t ≥ 0, (3) where

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The Service Process

Queue Length and Departure Process Q(t) ≡ A(t) − D(t), t ≥ 0, (2) D(t) ≡ Ns( t µ(s)1{Q(s)>0} ds), t ≥ 0, (3) where Ns is a rate-1 counting process with unit jumps, independent of Na.

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The Service Process

Queue Length and Departure Process Q(t) ≡ A(t) − D(t), t ≥ 0, (2) D(t) ≡ Ns( t µ(s)1{Q(s)>0} ds), t ≥ 0, (3) where Ns is a rate-1 counting process with unit jumps, independent of Na. E[D(t)|Q(s), 0 ≤ s ≤ t] = t

0 µ(s)1{Q(s)>0} ds.

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The Service Process

Queue Length and Departure Process Q(t) ≡ A(t) − D(t), t ≥ 0, (2) D(t) ≡ Ns( t µ(s)1{Q(s)>0} ds), t ≥ 0, (3) where Ns is a rate-1 counting process with unit jumps, independent of Na. E[D(t)|Q(s), 0 ≤ s ≤ t] = t

0 µ(s)1{Q(s)>0} ds.

The service requirement process Ns is separated from the deterministic service-rate function µ(t).

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The Service-Rate Controls

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The Service-Rate Controls

Rate-matching control µ(t) ≡ λ(t) ρ , t ≥ 0. (4)

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The Service-Rate Controls

Rate-matching control µ(t) ≡ λ(t) ρ , t ≥ 0. (4) PSA-based square-root control µ(t) ≡ λ(t) + λ(t) 2

  • 1 +

ζ λ(t) − 1

  • ,

t ≥ 0, (5)

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The Service-Rate Controls

Rate-matching control µ(t) ≡ λ(t) ρ , t ≥ 0. (4) PSA-based square-root control µ(t) ≡ λ(t) + λ(t) 2

  • 1 +

ζ λ(t) − 1

  • ,

t ≥ 0, (5)

based on the PSA approximation: E[W (t)] ≈ ρ(t)V /µ(t)(1 − ρ(t)) = λ(t)V /(µ(t)2 − µ(t)λ(t)).

Supporting treory in Whitt (2015)

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The Service-Rate Controls

Rate-matching control µ(t) ≡ λ(t) ρ , t ≥ 0. (4) PSA-based square-root control µ(t) ≡ λ(t) + λ(t) 2

  • 1 +

ζ λ(t) − 1

  • ,

t ≥ 0, (5)

based on the PSA approximation: E[W (t)] ≈ ρ(t)V /µ(t)(1 − ρ(t)) = λ(t)V /(µ(t)2 − µ(t)λ(t)).

Supporting treory in Whitt (2015)

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Generating the Arrival Process

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Generating the Arrival Process

Let Ak and Tk be arrival times of processes A and Na Ak = Λ−1(Tk). (6)

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Generating the Arrival Process

Let Ak and Tk be arrival times of processes A and Na Ak = Λ−1(Tk). (6) Problem: need to compute Λ−1 for each arrival in each simulation run.

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Generating the Arrival Process

Let Ak and Tk be arrival times of processes A and Na Ak = Λ−1(Tk). (6) Problem: need to compute Λ−1 for each arrival in each simulation run. Compute the inverse function Λ−1 for one cycle outside of simulation and do table lookup when simulating.

Λ−1(kC + t) = kC + Λ−1(t) for 0 ≤ t ≤ C, where C is the length of a cycle.

(See the paper for the details.)

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Generating the Service Times

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Generating the Service Times

Let Ak, Bk and Dk be customer’s arrival time, begin service time and departure time; Vk and Wk be customer’s service time and waiting time in queue.

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Generating the Service Times

Let Ak, Bk and Dk be customer’s arrival time, begin service time and departure time; Vk and Wk be customer’s service time and waiting time in queue. Let sequence of service requirements {Sk : k ≥ 1} be specified as the times between events in the counting process Ns.

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Generating the Service Times

Let Ak, Bk and Dk be customer’s arrival time, begin service time and departure time; Vk and Wk be customer’s service time and waiting time in queue. Let sequence of service requirements {Sk : k ≥ 1} be specified as the times between events in the counting process Ns. We have the basic recursions: Bk = max{Dk−1, Ak}, Dk = Bk + Vk and Wk = Bk − Ak.

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Generating the Service Times

Let Ak, Bk and Dk be customer’s arrival time, begin service time and departure time; Vk and Wk be customer’s service time and waiting time in queue. Let sequence of service requirements {Sk : k ≥ 1} be specified as the times between events in the counting process Ns. We have the basic recursions: Bk = max{Dk−1, Ak}, Dk = Bk + Vk and Wk = Bk − Ak. But Vk is not formulated.

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Generating the Service Times

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Generating the Service Times

Exact service time formula: Sk = Bk+Vk

Bk

µ(s) ds, k ≥ 1. (7) If we let M(t) ≡ t µ(s) ds, t ≥ 0, (8) then Vk = M−1(Sk + M(Bk)) − Bk, k ≥ 1. (9)

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Generating the Service Times

Exact service time formula: Sk = Bk+Vk

Bk

µ(s) ds, k ≥ 1. (7) If we let M(t) ≡ t µ(s) ds, t ≥ 0, (8) then Vk = M−1(Sk + M(Bk)) − Bk, k ≥ 1. (9)

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Simulation Experiments

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Simulation Experiments: Arrival Rates

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Simulation Experiments: Arrival Rates

The arrival process has the sinusoidal arrival rate function λ(t) ≡ 1 + β sin (γt) (10)

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Simulation Experiments: Arrival Rates

The arrival process has the sinusoidal arrival rate function λ(t) ≡ 1 + β sin (γt) (10) with β=0.2, γ=0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1, 10.

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Simulation Experiments: Arrival Rates

The arrival process has the sinusoidal arrival rate function λ(t) ≡ 1 + β sin (γt) (10) with β=0.2, γ=0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1, 10. To cover a range of difference cycle lengths of 2π/γ.

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Simulation Experiments: Stochastic Components

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Simulation Experiments: Stochastic Components

Use renewal processes with mean 1 for the base process Na and Ns, and consider three different i.i.d. interval time distributions. exponential (c2 = 1)

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Simulation Experiments: Stochastic Components

Use renewal processes with mean 1 for the base process Na and Ns, and consider three different i.i.d. interval time distributions. exponential (c2 = 1) hyperexponential (mixture of two exponentials, c2 > 1)

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Simulation Experiments: Stochastic Components

Use renewal processes with mean 1 for the base process Na and Ns, and consider three different i.i.d. interval time distributions. exponential (c2 = 1) hyperexponential (mixture of two exponentials, c2 > 1) Erlang (sum of two i.i.d. exponentials, c2 = 0.5)

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Simulation and Estimation Methods

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Simulation and Estimation Methods

Consider a fixed time interval [0, T] with T= 2 × 104 for γ = 0.001 and T= 2 × 103 for the other values of γ.

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Simulation and Estimation Methods

Consider a fixed time interval [0, T] with T= 2 × 104 for γ = 0.001 and T= 2 × 103 for the other values of γ. For each simulation replication, calculate performance measures at deterministic times dt, 2dt, 3dt,...T.

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Simulation and Estimation Methods

Consider a fixed time interval [0, T] with T= 2 × 104 for γ = 0.001 and T= 2 × 103 for the other values of γ. For each simulation replication, calculate performance measures at deterministic times dt, 2dt, 3dt,...T.

Compute virtual waiting time W(t) and number of customers in system Q(t)

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Simulation and Estimation Methods

Consider a fixed time interval [0, T] with T= 2 × 104 for γ = 0.001 and T= 2 × 103 for the other values of γ. For each simulation replication, calculate performance measures at deterministic times dt, 2dt, 3dt,...T.

Compute virtual waiting time W(t) and number of customers in system Q(t)

Generate 10,000 independent replications to estimate mean values and to construct confidence intervals of performance measures.

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Simulation and Estimation Methods

Consider a fixed time interval [0, T] with T= 2 × 104 for γ = 0.001 and T= 2 × 103 for the other values of γ. For each simulation replication, calculate performance measures at deterministic times dt, 2dt, 3dt,...T.

Compute virtual waiting time W(t) and number of customers in system Q(t)

Generate 10,000 independent replications to estimate mean values and to construct confidence intervals of performance measures.

Take the average over all replications to estimate E(W(t)) and E(Q(t))

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Simulation and Estimation Methods

Consider a fixed time interval [0, T] with T= 2 × 104 for γ = 0.001 and T= 2 × 103 for the other values of γ. For each simulation replication, calculate performance measures at deterministic times dt, 2dt, 3dt,...T.

Compute virtual waiting time W(t) and number of customers in system Q(t)

Generate 10,000 independent replications to estimate mean values and to construct confidence intervals of performance measures.

Take the average over all replications to estimate E(W(t)) and E(Q(t)) Use t statistics to construct 95% confidence intervals for E(W(t)) and E(Q(t))

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Simulation and Estimation Methods

Consider a fixed time interval [0, T] with T= 2 × 104 for γ = 0.001 and T= 2 × 103 for the other values of γ. For each simulation replication, calculate performance measures at deterministic times dt, 2dt, 3dt,...T.

Compute virtual waiting time W(t) and number of customers in system Q(t)

Generate 10,000 independent replications to estimate mean values and to construct confidence intervals of performance measures.

Take the average over all replications to estimate E(W(t)) and E(Q(t)) Use t statistics to construct 95% confidence intervals for E(W(t)) and E(Q(t))

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Simulation Results

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Simulation Results: The Rate-Matching Control

  • 1. γ=0.001

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Simulation Results: The Rate-Matching Control

  • 1. γ=0.001

Cycle length is 6.28 × 103. The left graph is Markovian model; the right graph shows (H2/H2), (H2/E2) and (E2/E2). E(Q(t)) stabilized at target, but E(W(t)) is periodic.

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 1 2 3 4 5 time in units of 104 γ = 0.001, β = 0.2, ρ = 0.8 arrival rate mean number mean wait 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 time in units of 104 γ = 0.001, β = 0.2, ρ = 0.8

arrival rate EQ(t) in H2H2 EQ(t) in H2E2 EQ(t) in E2E2

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Simulation Results: The Rate-Matching Control

  • 2. γ=0.1

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Simulation Results: The Rate-Matching Control

  • 2. γ=0.1

Cycle length is 62.8, only last 3 to 4 cycles are displayed. E(Q(t)) stabilized at target, but E(W(t)) is periodic.

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 1 2 3 4 5 time γ = 0.1, β = 0.2, ρ = 0.8 arrival rate mean number mean wait 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 time γ = 0.1, β = 0.2, ρ = 0.8

arrival rate EQ(t) in H2H2 EQ(t) in H2E2 EQ(t) in E2E2

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Simulation Results: The Rate-Matching Control

  • 3. γ=10

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Simulation Results: The Rate-Matching Control

  • 3. γ=10

Cycle length is 0.63, only last 3 cycles are displayed. By Whitt (1984) the system converges to stationary case.

1999 2000 1 2 3 4 5 time γ = 10, β = 0.2, ρ = 0.8 arrival rate mean number mean wait 1999 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 time γ = 10, β = 0.2, ρ = 0.8

arrival rate EQ(t) in H2H2 EQ(t) in H2E2 EQ(t) in E2E2

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Simulation Results: The Square-Root Control

  • 1. γ=0.001

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Simulation Results: The Square-Root Control

  • 1. γ=0.001

Cycles are long, and arrival rates change slowly, thus PSA is

  • appropriate. [Whitt, 1991]

E(W(t)) is stabilized, while E(Q(t)) is periodic.

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 1 2 3 4 5 6

time in units of 104 γ = 0.001, β = 0.2, ζ = 1 arrival rate mean number mean wait

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 5 10 15 20 25

time in units of 104 γ = 0.001, β = 0.2, ζ = 1

arrival rate EW(t) in H2H2 EW(t) in H2E2 EW(t) in E2E2

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Simulation Results: The Square-Root Control

  • 2. γ=0.1

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Simulation Results: The Square-Root Control

  • 2. γ=0.1

PSA does not hold as cycles are short. Neither E(W(t)) nor E(Q(t)) is stabilized.

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6

time γ = 0.1, β = 0.2, ζ = 1 arrival rate mean number mean wait

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 5 10 15 20 25

time γ = 0.1, β = 0.2, ζ = 1

arrival rate EW(t) in H2H2 EW(t) in H2E2 EW(t) in E2E2

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Thank You!

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Generating the Arrival Process

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Generating the Arrival Process

Construct the table of Λ−1 over an cycle.

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SLIDE 82

Generating the Arrival Process

Construct the table of Λ−1 over an cycle. Calculate Λ value for nx equally spaced points of [0, C], let spacing be η = C/nx.

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SLIDE 83

Generating the Arrival Process

Construct the table of Λ−1 over an cycle. Calculate Λ value for nx equally spaced points of [0, C], let spacing be η = C/nx. Construct approximation J of Λ−1 over ny equally spaced points in [0, Λ(C] = [0, C], let spacing be δ = C/ny.

Using J(jδ) = kη, 1 ≤ j ≤ ny, where 0 ≤ k ≤ nx and kη is closest point greater equal to the true inverse value.

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SLIDE 84

Generating the Arrival Process

Construct the table of Λ−1 over an cycle. Calculate Λ value for nx equally spaced points of [0, C], let spacing be η = C/nx. Construct approximation J of Λ−1 over ny equally spaced points in [0, Λ(C] = [0, C], let spacing be δ = C/ny.

Using J(jδ) = kη, 1 ≤ j ≤ ny, where 0 ≤ k ≤ nx and kη is closest point greater equal to the true inverse value.

Extend J to [0, C] by letting J(t) = J(⌊t/δ⌋δ).

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SLIDE 85

Results From [Whitt, 2015]: The Rate Matching Control

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SLIDE 86

Results From [Whitt, 2015]: The Rate Matching Control

Theorem 2.1 (time transformation of a stationary model)

For (A, D, Q) with the rate-matching service-rate control and the stationary single-server model (A1, D1, Q1), (A(t), D(t), Q(t)) = (A1(Λ(t)), D1(Λ(t)), Q1(Λ(t))), t ≥ 0. (11)

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SLIDE 87

Results From [Whitt, 2015]: The Rate Matching Control

Theorem 2.1 (time transformation of a stationary model)

For (A, D, Q) with the rate-matching service-rate control and the stationary single-server model (A1, D1, Q1), (A(t), D(t), Q(t)) = (A1(Λ(t)), D1(Λ(t)), Q1(Λ(t))), t ≥ 0. (11)

Theorem 3.2 (stabilizing the queue-length distribution and the steady-state delay probability)

Let Q1(t) be the queue length process when λ(t) = 1, t ≥ 0. If Q1(t) ⇒ Q1(∞) as t → ∞, where P(Q1(∞) < ∞) = 1, then also Q(t) ⇒ Q1(∞) in R as t → ∞, (12) and P(W (t) > 0) = P(Q(t) ≥ 1) → ρ as t → ∞. (13)

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SLIDE 88

Results From [Whitt, 2015]: The Square-Root Control

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SLIDE 89

Results From [Whitt, 2015]: The Square-Root Control

Section 6.3 (stabilizing the expected time-varying virtual waiting time)

We assume that the Pointwise Stationary Approximation (PSA) is

  • appropriate. Then the square-root control (14) stabilizes E[W (t)] at the

target w for all t under heavy traffic. µ(t) ≡ λ(t) + λ(t) 2

  • 1 +

ζ λ(t) − 1

  • ,

t ≥ 0, (14) where ζ is inversely proportional to w.

Pointwaise Stationary Approximation (PSA)

Performance at different times can be regarded as approximately the same as the performance of the stationary system with the model parameters

  • perating at those separate times.

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SLIDE 90

Theorem From [Whitt, 2015]

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SLIDE 91

Theorem From [Whitt, 2015]

Theorem 6.1 (impossibility of stabilizing both the waiting time distribution and the mean number in queue)

Consider a Gt/Gt/1 system starting empty in the distant past. Suppose that a service-rate control makes P(W (t) > x) independent of t for all x ≥ 0. Then the only arrival rate functions for which the mean number waiting in queue E[(Q(t) − 1)+] is constant, independent of t, are the constant arrival rate functions.

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SLIDE 92

Theorem From [Whitt, 2015]

Theorem 6.1 (impossibility of stabilizing both the waiting time distribution and the mean number in queue)

Consider a Gt/Gt/1 system starting empty in the distant past. Suppose that a service-rate control makes P(W (t) > x) independent of t for all x ≥ 0. Then the only arrival rate functions for which the mean number waiting in queue E[(Q(t) − 1)+] is constant, independent of t, are the constant arrival rate functions.

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SLIDE 93

Theorem From [Whitt, 1984]

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SLIDE 94

Theorem From [Whitt, 1984]

Theorem 1 (Convergence of point processes)

The point process D(t) has predictable stochastic intensity Λ(t), then it can be represented as the random-time transformation D(t) = Π(C(t)), t ≥ 0, (15) where Π(t) is a Poisson process with unit intensity and C(t) = t

0 Λ(u)du.

If Cn(t) ⇒ ct in R as n → ∞ for each t, then Dn ⇒ Πc in D[0, ∞) as n → ∞, where Πc is a Poisson process with intensity c.

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SLIDE 95

Theorem From [Whitt, 1984]

Theorem 1 (Convergence of point processes)

The point process D(t) has predictable stochastic intensity Λ(t), then it can be represented as the random-time transformation D(t) = Π(C(t)), t ≥ 0, (15) where Π(t) is a Poisson process with unit intensity and C(t) = t

0 Λ(u)du.

If Cn(t) ⇒ ct in R as n → ∞ for each t, then Dn ⇒ Πc in D[0, ∞) as n → ∞, where Πc is a Poisson process with intensity c.

Section 3.2 (Applications to queues)

Apply rescaling Dn(t) = ˆ Dn(t)(t/n) and Cn(t) = ˆ Cn(t)(t/n) (16) for t ≥ 0.

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SLIDE 96

Theorem From [Whitt, 1984]

Theorem 1 (Convergence of point processes)

The point process D(t) has predictable stochastic intensity Λ(t), then it can be represented as the random-time transformation D(t) = Π(C(t)), t ≥ 0, (15) where Π(t) is a Poisson process with unit intensity and C(t) = t

0 Λ(u)du.

If Cn(t) ⇒ ct in R as n → ∞ for each t, then Dn ⇒ Πc in D[0, ∞) as n → ∞, where Πc is a Poisson process with intensity c.

Section 3.2 (Applications to queues)

Apply rescaling Dn(t) = ˆ Dn(t)(t/n) and Cn(t) = ˆ Cn(t)(t/n) (16) for t ≥ 0.

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SLIDE 97

References

  • M. Defraeye and I. Van Niewenhuyse (2013) Controlling excessive waiting times in

small service systems with time-varying demand: an extension of the ISA algorithm. Decision Support Systems 54(4), 1558 – 1567.

  • B. He, Y. Liu and W. Whitt (2015) Staffing a service system with non-Poisson

nonstationary arrivals. Working Paper. O.B. Jennings, A. Mandelbaum, W.A. Massey and W. Whitt (1996) Server staffing to meet time-varying demand. Manag. Sci. 42, 1383 –1394.

  • Y. Liu and W. Whitt (2012) Stabilizing customer abandonment in many-server

queues with time-varying arrivals. Oper. Res. 60(6), 1551 – 1564.

  • W. Whitt (1984) Departures from a queue with many busy servers. Math. Oper.
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  • W. Whitt (1991) The pointwise stationary approximation for Mt/Mt/s queues is

asymptotically correct as the rates increase. Management Science 37(3), 307–314.

  • W. Whitt (2015) Stabilizing performance in a single-server queue with time-varying

arrival rate. Queueing Systems 81, 341–378.

  • G. Yom-Tov and A. Mandelbaum (2014) Erlang-R: A time-varying queue with

reentrant customers, in support of healthcare staffing. Manufacturing and Service

  • Oper. Management 16(2), 283 – 299.

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