Upper North Island Transport Study (UNITS) Outline Where are the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Upper North Island Transport Study (UNITS) Where are the knowledge gaps?

Dr Judith Wang

Research Fellow in Transport Economics The Energy Centre The University of Auckland Business School, New Zealand j.wang@auckland.ac.nz

20 May 2010

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

1 Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

2 Problem diagnosis 3 Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

4 Conclusions 5 Knowledge gaps

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Overview

1 Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

2 Problem diagnosis 3 Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

4 Conclusions 5 Knowledge gaps

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Acknowledgements

John Davies, Manager Transport Analysis, Auckland Regional Council Richard Scott, Senior Consultant, Booz & Company (formerly with ARTA) Dr Ian Longley, Senior Air Quality Scientist, NIWA Stephan Hassold, PhD Candidate, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Auckland Disclaimer The views expressed in this presentation are my own, and should not be regarded as being the opinion or responsibility of The University of Auckland.

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Acknowledgements

John Davies, Manager Transport Analysis, Auckland Regional Council Richard Scott, Senior Consultant, Booz & Company (formerly with ARTA) Dr Ian Longley, Senior Air Quality Scientist, NIWA Stephan Hassold, PhD Candidate, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Auckland Disclaimer The views expressed in this presentation are my own, and should not be regarded as being the opinion or responsibility of The University of Auckland.

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What is the Upper North Island Transport Study (UNITS) about?

A recent study of New Zealand national freight demand suggests an increase of 70–75% in freight volume over the next 25 years Traffic movements centred in the upper North Island, particularly around the Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions are expected to increase Growth in Total Commodities

2006/07 2011 2016 2031 Million Tonnes Lifted 50 100 150 200 250 1.00 1.17 1.34 1.74

Source: Paling (2008)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What is the Upper North Island Transport Study (UNITS) about?

Auckland has a population of about 1.3 million people with over 34 % of New Zealand total employment and is accountable for about 35.6 % of total GDP Auckland Population Projection

Source: NZSTATS, ARTA

Rest of NZ vs Auckland Population Growth

Source: NZSTATS, ARTA

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What is the Upper North Island Transport Study (UNITS) about?

For NZ to remain internationally competitive it is highly dependent on an efficient Auckland transport/freight handling system

Source: NZSTATS, ARTA Source: NZSTATS, ARTA

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Research Questions

1 Is our current transportation system sustainable in the

following three dimensions?

economic environmental social

2 Do we have enough capacity to deal with the expected

growth in transport demand?

3 What would be the best way to invest in transport

infrastructure development in order to support the future demand in a sustainable way?

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

How do we define sustainability?

United Nation World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) (the Brundtland Commission) broadly defined “sustainability” as: “[..]Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable – to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.”

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What is “sustainable growth”?

Pearce et al. (1989) “[..]Economic growth means real GNP per capita is increasing over time. But observation of such a trend does not mean that growth is sustainable.” “[..]Sustainable economic growth means that real GNP per capita is increasing over time and the increase is not threatened by feedback from either biophysical impacts (pollution, resource problems) or from social impacts (social disruption).” Economic growth = Sustainable economic growth

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What is “sustainable growth”?

Pearce et al. (1989) “[..]Economic growth means real GNP per capita is increasing over time. But observation of such a trend does not mean that growth is sustainable.” “[..]Sustainable economic growth means that real GNP per capita is increasing over time and the increase is not threatened by feedback from either biophysical impacts (pollution, resource problems) or from social impacts (social disruption).” Economic growth = Sustainable economic growth

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What is “sustainable growth”?

Pearce et al. (1989) “[..]Economic growth means real GNP per capita is increasing over time. But observation of such a trend does not mean that growth is sustainable.” “[..]Sustainable economic growth means that real GNP per capita is increasing over time and the increase is not threatened by feedback from either biophysical impacts (pollution, resource problems) or from social impacts (social disruption).” Economic growth = Sustainable economic growth

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What is “sustainable development”?

Pearce et al. (1989) “[..]Sustainable development involves devising a social and economic system which ensures that these goals are sustained, i.e. that real incomes rise, that educational standards increase, that the health of the nation improves, that the general quality of life is advanced.”

• r

“[..]Sustainable development means that per capita utility

• r wellbeing is increasing over time.”

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What is “sustainable development”?

Pearce et al. (1989) “[..]Sustainable development involves devising a social and economic system which ensures that these goals are sustained, i.e. that real incomes rise, that educational standards increase, that the health of the nation improves, that the general quality of life is advanced.”

• r

“[..]Sustainable development means that per capita utility

• r wellbeing is increasing over time.”

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What is “sustainability in transport”?

European Commission (2004)’s “three-legged stool”

Environmental sustainability Economic sustainability Social sustainability Comprehensive sustainability

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What are the objectives of sustainable transport policy?

European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2000) Objectives Economic Social Environment Improving transport safety

• Creating wealth
• Improving access
• Reducing congestion
• Reducing traffic severance,
• fear, intimidation

Protecting landscape

• and biodiversity

Reducing noise

• Reducing GHG emissions
• Improving air quality

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

How do we achieve sustainability in transport?

May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a, 2006b):

1 Infrastructure provision and management 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information

provision, and infrastructure)

3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary

agreements)

5 Pricing and taxation

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

How do we achieve sustainability in transport?

May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a, 2006b):

1 Infrastructure provision and management 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information

provision, and infrastructure)

3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary

agreements)

5 Pricing and taxation

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

How do we achieve sustainability in transport?

May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a, 2006b):

1 Infrastructure provision and management 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information

provision, and infrastructure)

3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary

agreements)

5 Pricing and taxation

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

How do we achieve sustainability in transport?

May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a, 2006b):

1 Infrastructure provision and management 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information

provision, and infrastructure)

3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary

agreements)

5 Pricing and taxation

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

How do we achieve sustainability in transport?

May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a, 2006b):

1 Infrastructure provision and management 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information

provision, and infrastructure)

3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary

agreements)

5 Pricing and taxation

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Policy instruments to reduce CO2 emissions

European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006b)

1 Infrastructure provision and management

Freight logistics, improved public transport

2 Technology improvements

More fuel-efficient vehicles, new fuels

3 Regulation

Improved fuel efficiency standards

4 Information, awareness, and education

Eco-driving, product labelling

5 Pricing and taxation

Carbon taxes, fuel taxes, vehicle taxes, road pricing

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Policy instruments to improve urban transport sustainability

European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a)

1 Infrastructure provision and management

Public transport, walking and cycling, capacity reallocation

2 Technology improvements

Better vehicles, new fuels

3 Regulation

Public transport, land use

4 Information, awareness, and education

Awareness campaigns, IT for users, operators

5 Pricing and taxation

Congestion pricing

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Our goal is ...

The goal of the UNITS project is to examine what is required to develop an economically sustainable transport system by investigating traffic congestion in and out of Auckland, the capacity of the current infrastructure to deal with projected growth and the utilisation of public transport.

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

UNITS is conducted in two stages ...

Stage-1 Preliminary analysis aims to scope out what is known about transportation and infrastructure in the upper North Island; including existing projected demand for transport services, population growth and passenger transport, public transport, urban settlement patterns and the environmental impacts of transportation.

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

UNITS is conducted in two stages ...

Stage-2 Detailed large scale project to create a more efficient transport network to increase utilisation of public transportation system in Auckland to gain efficiency in logistics operations to enable expected increase in freight movements efficiently to improve quality of life in the upper North Island

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What is this presentation about?

Stage-1 Preliminary analysis: Where are the knowledge gaps?

1 Background

General Vehicle fleet and usage statistics in NZ Journey-to-Work statistics in NZ Private and public transport costs in Auckland Public transport patronage in Auckland

2 Problem diagnosis 3 Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models Vehicle emission models

4 Conclusions 5 Knowledge gaps

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Our energy use by sector is dominated by transport

Total consumed energy by sector in 2006

Source:MED (2007)

Transport 44% Industrial 30% Residential 12.6% Commercial 9.1% Agriculture 4.3%

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Road is the current major mode in freight transport in terms of both tonnage and tonne-kms

Freight Transport by Mode in NZ

Source: Paling (2008)

Road 92% Rail 6.1% Sea 1.9% Air 0% Freight Tonnage by Mode Road 70.2% Rail 14.6% Sea 14.9% Air 0.3% Freight Tonne−Kms by Mode

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Road has always been the major mode in freight transport

Road and Rail Freight Movements NZ 1993-2007

Source: Paling (2008)

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Net Tonne−kms (millions) 5000 10000 15000 20000 Rail Road

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Light private vehicles (LPV) constitute about 80%

• f the fleet in NZ and made about 78% of VKT

Vehicle Fleet Composition

Source:MoT

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Financial Year Vehicles 500000 1500000 2500000 3500000 BUS HCV MCY LCV LPV

Vehicle-Kilometres Travelled

Source:MoT

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Financial Year Vehicle−Km (billions) 10 20 30 40 50 BUS HCV MCY LCV LPV

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Changes in fleet composition and their usage (VKT) follow very different patterns

Vehicle Fleet per Capita Percentage Increase (vs 2000)

Source:MoT

Time Percentage Increase 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 −10 10 20 30 40 LPV per Capita LCV per Capita MCY per Capita HCV per Capita BUS per Capita

VKT per Capita Percentage Increase (vs 2001)

Source:MoT

Time Percentage Increase 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 10 20 30 40 50 60 VKT.LPV per Capita VKT.LCV per Capita VKT.MCY per Capita VKT.HCV per Capita VKT.BUS per Capita

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

VKT by commercial vehicles (LCV+HCV) have increased while that of LPV has decreased

Percentage change in vehicle-kilometres composition

Source:MoT

LPV 79.6% LCV 13.6% MCY 0.5% HCV 5.8% BUS 0.4% VKT FY 2001 LPV 77.6% LCV 14.4% MCY 0.8% HCV 6.6% BUS 0.6% VKT FY 2008

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Driving is also the current major mode for journey-to-work

1989/90 1997/98 2003−07 2004−08 2005−09 Period Proportion 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.68 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.79

Source:MoT

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

More people are driving to work alone

1989/90 1997/98 2003−07 2004−08 2005−09 Passenger Car Period Proportion 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.81 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.86

Source:MoT

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Public transport modal share has increased in recent years

1989/90 1997/98 2003−07 2004−08 2005−09 PT Car+PT Passenger Car Period Proportion 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.92

Source:MoT

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Less people are walking or cycling to work

1989/90 1997/98 2003−07 2004−08 2005−09 Other Cycle Walk PT Car+PT Passenger Car Period Proportion 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Source:MoT

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Some places are accessible only by car

JTW % By Car

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

JTW % By Bus

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Some places are accessible only by car

Roads with more than 80 buses per day

Source: ARC

JTW % By Bus

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Central Business District (CBD) has lower car use

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

CBD has higher percentage of walk trips

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

CBD also has more people bike to work

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

However not everyone wants to live in CBD!

% Trips by Car

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

% Trips by Bus

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

% Trips by Rail

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Jakob et al. (2006) analysed the total costs of private and public transport in Auckland

1 Internal cost

‘out of pocket’ costs in transport, money which is directly spent by the government to run the transportation system

2 External cost

Accident costs

Medical costs, rehabilitation costs, legal costs Costs due to loss of production Property damage

Air pollution costs

Health damage Damage to vegetation and buildings

Climate change costs

CO2 emission

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Transport costs in Auckland (2001)

Internal costs Accident costs

Source: Jakob et al. (2006)

Air pollution costs Climate change costs

Source: Jakob et al. (2006)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Total transport external costs in Auckland (2001)

Source: Jakob et al. (2006)

Private transport is subsidised 3.5 cents per pax-km more than public transport!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Total transport external costs in Auckland (2001)

Source: Jakob et al. (2006)

Private transport is subsidised 3.5 cents per pax-km more than public transport!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Public transport is a much more efficient mode than private transport!

Source: Jakob et al. (2006)

Public Transport Private Transport NZD per pax−km 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 Internal External

Source: Jakob et al. (2006)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Air pollution cost is the second biggest external cost in transport only after congestion cost

Transport external costs in Auckland(2001)

Source: Jakob et al. (2006)

Air Pollution 58% Accidents 36% Climate Change Costs 6%

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Bus patronage has been increasing since 1999 while rail patronage has been increasing only since 2003

Bus and Rail Patronage per Capita Auckland 1996–2008

Source:ARTA,NZSTAT

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Bus services has been significantly improved in response to the increase in demand since 1999

Bus Patronage and Bus-kilometres per Capita in Auckland 1996–2008

Source:ARTA,NZSTAT

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Deregulation of bus services induced a significant increase in fare

Bus Patronage per Capita and Revenue per Bus Passenger in Auckland 1996–2008

Source:ARTA,NZSTAT

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Rail patronage has been on a steep climb since the

• pening of Britomart in 2003

Rail Patronage and train-kilometres per Capita in Auckland 1996–2008

Source:ARTA,NZSTAT

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Despite significant increase in rail fare, rail patronage has been climbing steeply

Rail Patronage per Capita and Revenue per Rail Passenger in Auckland 1996–2008

Source:ARTA,NZSTAT

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Car ownership has been on the rise with increase in income

Real Disposable Income and Car Ownership per Capita in Auckland 1996–2008

Source:NZTA,NZSTAT

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Car ownership’s increasing trend has flattened while fuel price has been rapidly increasing

Fuel Price and Car Ownership per Capita in Auckland 1996–2008

Source:MED,NZTA,NZSTAT

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

The increase and fluctuations in fuel price in recent years did have a positive impact on PT patronage

Fuel Price versus PT Patronage per Capita 1996–2008

Source:MED,ARTA,NZTA

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Summary of Findings

More people are driving to work alone Public transport modal share has increased in recent years Less people are walking to work And even less people are cycling to work Fuel price fluctuations did have an impact on both VKT by car and PT patronage but the effect on VKT by commercial vehicles is not as significant Is our transportation system becoming more sustainable?? I am not sure!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Summary of Findings

More people are driving to work alone Public transport modal share has increased in recent years Less people are walking to work And even less people are cycling to work Fuel price fluctuations did have an impact on both VKT by car and PT patronage but the effect on VKT by commercial vehicles is not as significant Is our transportation system becoming more sustainable?? I am not sure!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Summary of Findings

More people are driving to work alone Public transport modal share has increased in recent years Less people are walking to work And even less people are cycling to work Fuel price fluctuations did have an impact on both VKT by car and PT patronage but the effect on VKT by commercial vehicles is not as significant Is our transportation system becoming more sustainable?? I am not sure!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Overview

1 Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

2 Problem diagnosis 3 Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

4 Conclusions 5 Knowledge gaps

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Why are we not achieving sustainable development?

Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Why are we not achieving sustainable development?

Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Why are we not achieving sustainable development?

Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Why are we not achieving sustainable development?

Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

I believe the real problem is ...

A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport and road focussed planning policy Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 induced by:

Privatisation of public transport services Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998

Congestion costs the region’s economy approximately $900 million per year (MoT, 2006) Public transport systems need to be improved

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

I believe the real problem is ...

A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport and road focussed planning policy Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 induced by:

Privatisation of public transport services Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998

Congestion costs the region’s economy approximately $900 million per year (MoT, 2006) Public transport systems need to be improved

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

I believe the real problem is ...

A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport and road focussed planning policy Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 induced by:

Privatisation of public transport services Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998

Congestion costs the region’s economy approximately $900 million per year (MoT, 2006) Public transport systems need to be improved

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

I believe the real problem is ...

A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport and road focussed planning policy Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 induced by:

Privatisation of public transport services Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998

Congestion costs the region’s economy approximately $900 million per year (MoT, 2006) Public transport systems need to be improved

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

But I also believe we have hope because ...

Rail patronage had been stagnant for many many years until the opening of the Britomart train station in 2003 The investment and continuous improvement in public transport services did have a positive effect on patronage, e.g. North Shore Busway The fluctuations in fuel price in recent years also had a positive effect on public transport patronage in the recent five years (Wang, 2009)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

But I also believe we have hope because ...

Rail patronage had been stagnant for many many years until the opening of the Britomart train station in 2003 The investment and continuous improvement in public transport services did have a positive effect on patronage, e.g. North Shore Busway The fluctuations in fuel price in recent years also had a positive effect on public transport patronage in the recent five years (Wang, 2009)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

But I also believe we have hope because ...

Rail patronage had been stagnant for many many years until the opening of the Britomart train station in 2003 The investment and continuous improvement in public transport services did have a positive effect on patronage, e.g. North Shore Busway The fluctuations in fuel price in recent years also had a positive effect on public transport patronage in the recent five years (Wang, 2009)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

I believe that the current economic evaluation procedure might not lead to a desirable outcome

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Costs Capital, maintenance and operating costs Property costs Environmental mitigation measures Climate change ($40 per tonne) Induced traffic (not always!) Benefits Travel time costs ($23.85/hr for work travel, $7.8/hr for commuting, $6.9/hr for non-work travel) Vehicle operating costs Accident costs

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

I believe that the current economic evaluation procedure might not lead to a desirable outcome

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Costs Capital, maintenance and operating costs Property costs Environmental mitigation measures Climate change ($40 per tonne) Induced traffic (not always!) Benefits Travel time costs ($23.85/hr for work travel, $7.8/hr for commuting, $6.9/hr for non-work travel) Vehicle operating costs Accident costs

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

The myth of travel time saving is debatable

Average travel time (hours per person per year) in the U.K.

Source:Metz (2008)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Is travel time saving a myth in NZ?

Over 95% of benefits of the Waterview Connection arise from travel time saving In Britain, for example, travel time savings have accounted for around 80% of the monetised benefits within the CBA

• f major road schemes (Metz, 2008)

Metz (2008) “[..]If travel time savings have significant value only in the short run, then it follows that the economic benefit of long-lived interventions has been misspecified”

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

What is missing in CBA?

Opportunity cost/use of land (parking and road infrastructure) Change in urban form and hence the possibility of diminishing travel time saving Other possible environmental performance measures, e.g.

Impact of air pollution from vehicle emission on health Energy efficiency for the transportation system as a whole

Wider welfare benefits, e.g. agglomeration economies

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Overview

1 Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

2 Problem diagnosis 3 Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

4 Conclusions 5 Knowledge gaps

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Transport has a derived demand

In a market economy, transportation demand presumably arises as a result of utility maximisation by individuals/households and profit maximisation by firms Because travel is a means to an end rather than an end itself, transport has a “derived demand” All transport demand forecasts, therefore, must begin with some knowledge of the geographic or spatial distribution

• f economic activities

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Overview of the Transport Planning Process

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Analysis of the Current Situation

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Travel Demand Forecast and Future Scenario Analysis

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Travel demand models for person trips are far more advanced than for freight trips in practice

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model

1 Trip Generation

forecasts the number of trips that will be made

2 Trip Distribution

determines where the trips will go

3 Modal Split

predicts how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel

4 Trip Assignment

predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership forecast for the public transport system

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model

1 Trip Generation

forecasts the number of trips that will be made

2 Trip Distribution

determines where the trips will go

3 Modal Split

predicts how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel

4 Trip Assignment

predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership forecast for the public transport system

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model

1 Trip Generation

forecasts the number of trips that will be made

2 Trip Distribution

determines where the trips will go

3 Modal Split

predicts how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel

4 Trip Assignment

predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership forecast for the public transport system

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model

1 Trip Generation

forecasts the number of trips that will be made

2 Trip Distribution

determines where the trips will go

3 Modal Split

predicts how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel

4 Trip Assignment

predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership forecast for the public transport system

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Auckland Regional Transport Planning Modelling Suite

Source: ARC (2009), Simmonds (1999)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

The Economic Futures Model (EFM) is based on a regional economic input-output table

Source: ARC (2009)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

The Auckland Transport Models (ATM2)

Source: based on Simmonds (1999)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

A schematic model for forecasting persons and freight transport demand

Source:Meyer and Straszheim (1971)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Relationships between transportation and economic activities are modelled with a feedback mechanism

Source:Meyer and Straszheim (1971)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Trip Generation

Models for the Trip Genera- tion: Trend and Time Series Input-Output Model

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Trip Generation

Models for the Trip Genera- tion: Trend and Time Series Input-Output Model

• Trend and time series models predict future trips by ex-

trapolating historical data.

• Included in the ART3 and EFM model.

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Trip Generation

Models for the Trip Genera- tion: Trend and Time Series Input-Output Model

• Input-Output models use detailed I-O tables describing

the monetary flows between sectors.

• Those flows can be factorised with the corresponding

sectoral growth rate and then converted into commodity flows.

• I-O models are used in a variety of models:

Italy, PINGO(Norway) and SCENES(European Union)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Trip Distribution

Models for the Trip Distribu- tion: Gravity Model Input-Output Analysis

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Trip Distribution

Models for the Trip Distribu- tion: Gravity Model Input-Output Analysis

• Gravity model predicts the flow as a function of produc-

tion and attraction measures

• Those act like the masses in gravity theory
• Transportation cost represents the distance between the

masses

• Applied in several models: TEM-II Models, SMILE(both

Netherlands)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Trip Distribution

Models for the Trip Distribu- tion: Gravity Model Input-Output Analysis

• Multiregional input-output tables are analysed
• The distribution of the trips is derived from the spatial

data in the tables

• Implemented in the STREAMS and the SCENES model

(both Europe)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Mode choice

Models for the Mode Choice: Logistics Model Microsimulation Multimodal Network Models

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Mode choice

Models for the Mode Choice: Logistics Model Microsimulation Multimodal Network Models

• Logistics models try to minimise the total logistics cost.
• Not only transportation costs are relevant but also reli-

abilty, flexiblity, etc.

• Use of supply chain management methods during the

decision making process

• Implemented in the SMILE and GOODTRIP models

(both Netherlands)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Mode choice

Models for the Mode Choice: Logistics Model Microsimulation Multimodal Network Models

• Microsimulation models simulate the behaviour of any

entity

• Elements act heterogeneously within the system and fol-

low behavioural rules.

• Adapted in Tokyo model for urban goods delivery

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Mode choice

Models for the Mode Choice: Logistics Model Microsimulation Multimodal Network Models

• Multimodal network models simultaneously predict mode

choice and the route.

• Mode transfers are allowed and considered during the

decision making

• Applied in the SCENES and STREAMS model (both

Europe), as well as in SMILE (Netherlands)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Mode choice

Models for the Mode Choice: Logistics Model Microsimulation Multimodal Network Models

• Those three models not only determine the mode, but

also the route at the same time.

• Simultaneous mode choice and assignment

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Assignment

Models for the Trip Assign- ment: Separate Models Integrated Models

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Assignment

Models for the Trip Assign- ment: Separate Models Integrated Models

• Separate models like random utility models (e.g. logit

and nested logit models) only take one mode into account

• No feedback → no congestion effect is considered
• Other assignments are ignored.

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Assignment

Models for the Trip Assign- ment: Separate Models Integrated Models

• Integrated models are like mode choice models, i.e. tak-

ing feedback into account

• Congestions can be represented and other modes and

routes be chosen

• Logistic decisions can be easily incorporated

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Freight future demand is estimated within the same modelling framework as for person trips

Freight Demand Modelling Framework in ATM2

Source: SKM et al. (2008)

Future freight demand is derived by applying growth factors to the base year HCV matrix Freight logistics and the impact of changes in transport costs are not considered in the model

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Freight future demand is estimated within the same modelling framework as for person trips

Freight Demand Modelling Framework in ATM2

Source: SKM et al. (2008)

Future freight demand is derived by applying growth factors to the base year HCV matrix Freight logistics and the impact of changes in transport costs are not considered in the model

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Recall that ...

A schematic model for forecasting persons and freight transport demand

Source: Meyer and Straszheim (1971)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Recall that the optimisation process of person trips and freight trips are fundamentally different

Description Person trips Freight trips Actors Individuals Firms Decision criteria Time, cost, cost, reliability, reliability, convenience,

• perational

parking availability, constraints comfort, etc. Optimisation Equilibrium multi-modal Multicommodity models route choice models network models

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Freight demand is not modelled as a ‘derived’ demand in the current model ...

Freight logistics are not considered A feedback mechanism is missing

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

ARC’s Vehicle Emissions Predictions Model

Vehicle Emissions Predictions Model (VEPM)

Source: Energy & Fuel Research Unit, The University of Auckland (2008)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Emission levels and energy consumption as a function of average speed

CO2 Emission & Fuel Consumption

Source: ARC

• 20

40 60 80 100 200 250 300 350 400 CO2 Emission vs Speed − LV Speed (km/hr) CO2 Emission (g/km/veh)

• 20

40 60 80 100 600 800 1000 1200 1400 CO2 Emission vs Speed − HV Speed (km/hr) CO2 Emission (g/km/veh)

• 20

40 60 80 100 8 10 12 14 16 Fuel vs Speed − LV Speed (km/hr) Fuel consumption

• 20

40 60 80 100 25 30 35 40 45 50 Fuel vs Speed − HV Speed (km/hr) Fuel consumption

VOC & NOx Emissions

Source: ARC

• 20

40 60 80 100 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 VOC Emission vs Speed − LV Speed (km/hr) VOC Emission (g/km/veh)

• 20

40 60 80 100 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 VOC Emission vs Speed − HV Speed (km/hr) VOC Emission (g/km/veh)

• 20

40 60 80 100 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 NOx vs Speed − LV Speed (km/hr) NOx consumption

• 20

40 60 80 100 3 4 5 6 7 8 NOx vs Speed − HV Speed (km/hr) NOx consumption

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

There is a knowledge gap between air quality modelling and traffic modelling at a strategic level

A Four-Arm Junction With Junction Delay Functions Applying the current vehicle emission model to a transport strategic planning model might not give us a correct estimation

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

There is a knowledge gap between air quality modelling and traffic modelling at a strategic level

A Four-Arm Junction With Junction Delay Functions Applying the current vehicle emission model to a transport strategic planning model might not give us a correct estimation

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

The emission function has different components

TRL (1999) suggests: Etotal = Ehot + Estart + Eevaporative where Etotal is the total emission; Ehot is the emission produced when the engine is hot; Estart is the emission when the engine is cold; and Eevaporative is the emission by evaporation (only for VOC). For example, Estart is associated with each trip and is dependent on the length of the trip as well

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

The emission function has different components

TRL (1999) suggests: Etotal = Ehot + Estart + Eevaporative where Etotal is the total emission; Ehot is the emission produced when the engine is hot; Estart is the emission when the engine is cold; and Eevaporative is the emission by evaporation (only for VOC). For example, Estart is associated with each trip and is dependent on the length of the trip as well

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Overview

1 Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

2 Problem diagnosis 3 Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

4 Conclusions 5 Knowledge gaps

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Recall that ...

Why are we not achieving sustainable development? Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Recall that ...

Why are we not achieving sustainable development? Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving?

Total transport external costs in Auckland (2001)

Source: Jakob et al. (2006)

No! Private transport is subsidised 3.5 cents per pax-km more than public transport!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving?

Total transport external costs in Auckland (2001)

Source: Jakob et al. (2006)

No! Private transport is subsidised 3.5 cents per pax-km more than public transport!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute?

JTW % By Car

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

JTW % By Bus

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

No! Some places are accessible only by car!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute?

JTW % By Car

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

JTW % By Bus

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

No! Some places are accessible only by car!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes?

% Trips by Bus

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

% Trips by Rail

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

Definitely not! The rail system is years and years behind!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes?

% Trips by Bus

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

% Trips by Rail

Source: Census 2006, ARTA

Definitely not! The rail system is years and years behind!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

Population Growth: 2001-2016

Source:ARC

Probably not! Urban sprawl seems to be unavoidable!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

Population Growth: 2001-2016

Source:ARC

Probably not! Urban sprawl seems to be unavoidable!

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Overview

1 Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

2 Problem diagnosis 3 Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

4 Conclusions 5 Knowledge gaps

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Modelling freight demand and its dynamic relationship to economic development

Response to cost changes for modes according to congestion, time of the day, vehicle type, and so on Feedback to the economic model as well as the land use model

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

To incorporate transport logistics into our demand modelling structure

Forecast of vehicle type composition as per supply chain and other logistics considerations Dynamic vehicle routing according to traffic conditions at different times of the day

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

We must understand freight transport logistics by commodity

1 Dairy products

Liquid milk, manufactured dairy products

2 Forestry

Logs, pulp and paper, sawn timber, wood chips

3 Coal 4 Petroleum products 5 Aluminium and steel 6 Animal and animal products

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Integrated environmental, transport and land use planning

How do we incorporate the consideration of energy efficiency and environment impact of vehicle emissions in the transport planning process? How do we assess the change in transport policy on air quality and its subsequent effects on health? How do we integrate transport planning, land use and air quality models to provide information to support decision making?

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Integrated environmental, transport and land use planning

How do we incorporate the consideration of energy efficiency and environment impact of vehicle emissions in the transport planning process? How do we assess the change in transport policy on air quality and its subsequent effects on health? How do we integrate transport planning, land use and air quality models to provide information to support decision making?

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Integrated environmental, transport and land use planning

How do we incorporate the consideration of energy efficiency and environment impact of vehicle emissions in the transport planning process? How do we assess the change in transport policy on air quality and its subsequent effects on health? How do we integrate transport planning, land use and air quality models to provide information to support decision making?

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Air quality scientists are working very hard to model more realistically the impact of vehicle emissions

Source: NIWA Air Quality Modelling Team

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Air quality modelling should be spatial and temporal ...

Impact of pollution has cumulative effect on health An estimation of ‘maximum’ exposure during the peak periods does not capture the cumulative effect on health Traffic levels at different time periods need to be modelled Multiperiod spatial analysis of air pollution dispersion is necessary to assess more accurately the health effect of vehicle emissions

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Air quality modelling should be spatial and temporal ...

Impact of pollution has cumulative effect on health An estimation of ‘maximum’ exposure during the peak periods does not capture the cumulative effect on health Traffic levels at different time periods need to be modelled Multiperiod spatial analysis of air pollution dispersion is necessary to assess more accurately the health effect of vehicle emissions

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Air quality modelling should be spatial and temporal ...

Impact of pollution has cumulative effect on health An estimation of ‘maximum’ exposure during the peak periods does not capture the cumulative effect on health Traffic levels at different time periods need to be modelled Multiperiod spatial analysis of air pollution dispersion is necessary to assess more accurately the health effect of vehicle emissions

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Air quality modelling should be spatial and temporal ...

Impact of pollution has cumulative effect on health An estimation of ‘maximum’ exposure during the peak periods does not capture the cumulative effect on health Traffic levels at different time periods need to be modelled Multiperiod spatial analysis of air pollution dispersion is necessary to assess more accurately the health effect of vehicle emissions

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

A possible framework to integrate air quality, transport and land use planning

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Economic Evaluation Procedure

CBA has to be carried out properly to include the true costs and benefits of transport Introduce Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to support decision making in transport policy, e.g. in (Walker et al. (2006)), sustainability of transport is measured in three dimensions:

Economic Environmental Social

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Economic Evaluation Procedure

CBA has to be carried out properly to include the true costs and benefits of transport Introduce Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to support decision making in transport policy, e.g. in (Walker et al. (2006)), sustainability of transport is measured in three dimensions:

Economic Environmental Social

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Comprehensive sustainability in transport

European Commission (2004)’s “three-legged stool”

Environmental sustainability Economic sustainability Social sustainability Comprehensive sustainability

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

‘Economic’ Indicators

Litman (2007):

1 Per capita mobility (daily or annual person-km or trips) 2 Modal split

personal travel: nonmotorised, automobile and public transport freight: truck, rail, ship and air

3 Average freight transport speed and reliability 4 Per capita congestion costs 5 Total per capita transport expenditure (vehicles, parking,

roads and transit services)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

‘Social’ Indicators

Litman (2007):

1 Per capita traffic crashes and fatalities 2 Quality of transport for disadvantaged people (disabled,

low incomes, children, etc.)

3 Affordability (portion of household budgets devoted to

transport)

4 Overall satisfaction rating of transport system (based on

• bjective user surveys)

5 Universal design (consideration of disabled people’s needs

in transport planning)

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

‘Environmental’ Indicators

Litman (2007):

1 Per capita energy consumption, disaggregated by mode 2 Energy consumption per freight ton km 3 Per capita air pollution emissions (various types),

disaggregated by mode

4 Per capita land devoted to transport facilities (roads,

parking, ports and airports)

5 Air and noise pollution exposure and health damages 6 Impervious surface coverage and stormwater management

practices

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

In summary ...

The following knowledge gaps have been identified:

1 Modelling of freight demand and its dynamic relationship

to economic development

2 Integration of environmental (e.g. air quality modelling)

impact analysis with transport and land use planning

3 A multicriteria economic evaluation procedure to support

policy decision making in order to achieve comprehensive sustainability in transport Thank you! You are welcome to reach me at j.wang@auckland.ac.nz

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

In summary ...

The following knowledge gaps have been identified:

1 Modelling of freight demand and its dynamic relationship

to economic development

2 Integration of environmental (e.g. air quality modelling)

impact analysis with transport and land use planning

3 A multicriteria economic evaluation procedure to support

policy decision making in order to achieve comprehensive sustainability in transport Thank you! You are welcome to reach me at j.wang@auckland.ac.nz

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

In summary ...

The following knowledge gaps have been identified:

1 Modelling of freight demand and its dynamic relationship

to economic development

2 Integration of environmental (e.g. air quality modelling)

impact analysis with transport and land use planning

3 A multicriteria economic evaluation procedure to support

policy decision making in order to achieve comprehensive sustainability in transport Thank you! You are welcome to reach me at j.wang@auckland.ac.nz

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

In summary ...

The following knowledge gaps have been identified:

1 Modelling of freight demand and its dynamic relationship

to economic development

2 Integration of environmental (e.g. air quality modelling)

impact analysis with transport and land use planning

3 A multicriteria economic evaluation procedure to support

policy decision making in order to achieve comprehensive sustainability in transport Thank you! You are welcome to reach me at j.wang@auckland.ac.nz

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

In summary ...

The following knowledge gaps have been identified:

1 Modelling of freight demand and its dynamic relationship

to economic development

2 Integration of environmental (e.g. air quality modelling)

impact analysis with transport and land use planning

3 A multicriteria economic evaluation procedure to support

policy decision making in order to achieve comprehensive sustainability in transport Thank you! You are welcome to reach me at j.wang@auckland.ac.nz

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

ARC (2009). Economic futures for the Auckland region – part 2: Scenarios for scenarios development. Technical report. Energy & Fuel Research Unit, The University of Auckland (2008). Development of a vehicle emission prediction modelVEPM. Technical report, Auckland Regional Council. European Commission (2004). Planning and Research of policies for land use and transport for increasing urban sustainablity PROPOLIS: Final Report to European Commission. European Commission, Brussels, Belgium. European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2000). Sustainable Transport Policies. Available online at www.cemt.org/online/council/2000/CM0001Fe.pdf. European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a). Implementing sustainable urban tranvel policies: Applying the 2001 key messages. Available online at www.cemt.org/online/council/2006/CM200603Fe.pdf. European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006b). Review of

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

CO2 abatement policies for the transport sector. Available online at www.cemt.org/online/council/2006/CM200604Fe.pdf. Jakob, A., Craig, J., and Fisher, G. (2006). Transport cost analysis: a case study of the total costs of private and public transport in

• auckland. Environmental Science & Policy, 9, 55–66.

Litman, T. (2007). Developing indicators for comprehensive and sustainable transport planning. Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2017, 10–15. May, T. and Crass, M. (2007). Sustainability in transport. Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2017, 1–9. MED (2007). New zealand energy strategy to 2050. Available online at http://www.med.govt.nz/. Metz, D. (2008). The myth of travel time saving. Transport Reviews, 28(3), 321–336. Meyer, J. R. and Straszheim, M. (1971). Techniques of transport planning Volume 1: Pricing and project evaluation. Brookings Institute, Washington D.C.

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

MoT (2006). Auckland road pricing evaluation study: Final report. Paling, R. (2008). National freight demands study. Technical report. Prepared for MoT, NZTA and MED. Pearce, D., Markandya, A., and Barbier, E. (1989). Blueprint for a Green Economy. Earthscan Publications Ltd. Simmonds, D. C. (1999). The design of the delta land-use modelling

• package. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 26,

665–685. SKM, BECA, and DSC (2008). Auckland Transport Models project (ATM2) – ART3 commercial vehicle model. Technical report. Prepared for ARC. TRL (1999). Methodology for calculat- ing transport emissions and energy consumption. Available online at http://www.ocs.polito.it/biblioteca/mobilita/MEET.pdf. Transport Research Laboratory Report, Deliverable 22 for the project MEET, Project funded by the European Commission. United Nation World Commission on Environment and Development (1987). Our common future: Report of the World Commission on

UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background

VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland

Problem diagnosis Models in practice

Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM

Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

Environment and Development. Available online at ringofpeace.org/environment/brundtland.html. Walker, W. E., Rahman, S., van Grol, R., and Klautzer, L. (2006). Operationalising the concept of sustainable transport and mobility. Environmental Practice, 8, 24–48. Wang, J. (2009). Appraisal of factors influencing public transport patronage in New Zealand. The 32nd Australasian Transport Research Forum, held in Auckland, New Zealand, 2009.