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UNITS Dr Judith Wang Upper North Island Transport Study (UNITS) Outline Where are the knowledge gaps? Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland Dr Judith Wang PT patronage in Auckland Problem

  1. What is “sustainable development”? UNITS Dr Judith Wang Pearce et al. (1989) Outline “[..] Sustainable development involves devising a social and Background VKT statistics economic system which ensures that these goals are Journey-to-Work statistics sustained, i.e. that real incomes rise, that educational Transport costs in Auckland standards increase, that the health of the nation improves, PT patronage in Auckland that the general quality of life is advanced. ” Problem diagnosis or Models in practice Auckland “[..] Sustainable development means that per capita utility regional models Freight models or wellbeing is increasing over time. ” VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  2. What is “sustainability in transport”? UNITS European Commission (2004)’s “three-legged stool” Dr Judith Wang Outline Environmental Background sustainability VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem Comprehensive diagnosis sustainability Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Economic Social Conclusions sustainability sustainability Knowledge gaps References

  3. What are the objectives of sustainable transport policy? European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2000) UNITS Dr Judith Wang Objectives Economic Social Environment Outline Improving transport safety � � Background VKT statistics Creating wealth � Journey-to-Work statistics Improving access � Transport costs in Auckland Reducing congestion PT patronage in � � Auckland Reducing traffic severance, � Problem diagnosis fear, intimidation Models in Protecting landscape � � practice Auckland and biodiversity regional models Freight models Reducing noise VEPM � Conclusions Reducing GHG emissions � Knowledge Improving air quality � gaps References

  4. How do we achieve sustainability in transport? UNITS Dr Judith Wang May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport Outline (2006a, 2006b): Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work 1 Infrastructure provision and management statistics Transport costs in Auckland 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information PT patronage in Auckland provision, and infrastructure) Problem diagnosis 3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) Models in 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary practice Auckland agreements) regional models Freight models VEPM 5 Pricing and taxation Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  5. How do we achieve sustainability in transport? UNITS Dr Judith Wang May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport Outline (2006a, 2006b): Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work 1 Infrastructure provision and management statistics Transport costs in Auckland 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information PT patronage in Auckland provision, and infrastructure) Problem diagnosis 3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) Models in 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary practice Auckland agreements) regional models Freight models VEPM 5 Pricing and taxation Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  6. How do we achieve sustainability in transport? UNITS Dr Judith Wang May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport Outline (2006a, 2006b): Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work 1 Infrastructure provision and management statistics Transport costs in Auckland 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information PT patronage in Auckland provision, and infrastructure) Problem diagnosis 3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) Models in 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary practice Auckland agreements) regional models Freight models VEPM 5 Pricing and taxation Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  7. How do we achieve sustainability in transport? UNITS Dr Judith Wang May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport Outline (2006a, 2006b): Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work 1 Infrastructure provision and management statistics Transport costs in Auckland 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information PT patronage in Auckland provision, and infrastructure) Problem diagnosis 3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) Models in 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary practice Auckland agreements) regional models Freight models VEPM 5 Pricing and taxation Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  8. How do we achieve sustainability in transport? UNITS Dr Judith Wang May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport Outline (2006a, 2006b): Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work 1 Infrastructure provision and management statistics Transport costs in Auckland 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information PT patronage in Auckland provision, and infrastructure) Problem diagnosis 3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) Models in 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary practice Auckland agreements) regional models Freight models VEPM 5 Pricing and taxation Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  9. Policy instruments to reduce CO 2 emissions UNITS Dr Judith European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006b) Wang 1 Infrastructure provision and management Outline Freight logistics, improved public transport Background VKT statistics 2 Technology improvements Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs More fuel-efficient vehicles, new fuels in Auckland PT patronage in 3 Regulation Auckland Problem Improved fuel efficiency standards diagnosis 4 Information, awareness, and education Models in practice Eco-driving, product labelling Auckland regional models 5 Pricing and taxation Freight models VEPM Carbon taxes, fuel taxes, vehicle taxes, road pricing Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  10. Policy instruments to improve urban transport sustainability UNITS European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a) Dr Judith Wang 1 Infrastructure provision and management Outline Public transport, walking and cycling, capacity Background reallocation VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics 2 Technology improvements Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Better vehicles, new fuels Auckland 3 Regulation Problem diagnosis Public transport, land use Models in practice 4 Information, awareness, and education Auckland regional models Awareness campaigns, IT for users, operators Freight models VEPM 5 Pricing and taxation Conclusions Congestion pricing Knowledge gaps References

  11. Our goal is ... UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background The goal of the UNITS project is to examine what is VKT statistics Journey-to-Work required to develop an economically sustainable transport statistics Transport costs system by investigating traffic congestion in and out of in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland, the capacity of the current infrastructure to Auckland Problem deal with projected growth and the utilisation of public diagnosis transport. Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  12. UNITS is conducted in two stages ... UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Stage-1 Preliminary analysis Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics aims to scope out what is known about transportation and Transport costs in Auckland infrastructure in the upper North Island; including existing PT patronage in Auckland projected demand for transport services, population Problem diagnosis growth and passenger transport, public transport, urban Models in settlement patterns and the environmental impacts of practice Auckland transportation. regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  13. UNITS is conducted in two stages ... UNITS Dr Judith Wang Stage-2 Detailed large scale project Outline Background VKT statistics to create a more efficient transport network Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs to increase utilisation of public transportation system in in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Auckland Problem to gain efficiency in logistics operations diagnosis Models in to enable expected increase in freight movements practice Auckland efficiently regional models Freight models to improve quality of life in the upper North Island VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  14. What is this presentation about? UNITS Stage-1 Preliminary analysis: Dr Judith Where are the knowledge gaps? Wang Outline 1 Background Background General VKT statistics Journey-to-Work Vehicle fleet and usage statistics in NZ statistics Transport costs Journey-to-Work statistics in NZ in Auckland PT patronage in Private and public transport costs in Auckland Auckland Public transport patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis 2 Problem diagnosis Models in 3 Models in practice practice Auckland regional models Auckland regional models Freight models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Vehicle emission models Knowledge 4 Conclusions gaps 5 Knowledge gaps References

  15. Our energy use by sector is dominated by transport UNITS Total consumed energy by sector in 2006 Dr Judith Wang Source:MED (2007) Outline Background VKT statistics Transport 44% Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Agriculture 4.3% Models in practice Auckland Industrial 30% Commercial 9.1% regional models Freight models VEPM Residential 12.6% Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  16. Road is the current major mode in freight transport in terms of both tonnage and tonne-kms UNITS Dr Judith Wang Freight Transport by Mode in NZ Outline Source: Paling (2008) Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Freight Tonnage by Mode Freight Tonne−Kms by Mode Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Road 70.2% Auckland Problem diagnosis Road 92% Air 0% Air 0.3% Sea 1.9% Models in Rail 6.1% practice Sea 14.9% Auckland regional models Freight models Rail 14.6% VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  17. Road has always been the major mode in freight transport UNITS Dr Judith Road and Rail Freight Movements NZ 1993-2007 Wang Source: Paling (2008) Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs Rail in Auckland Road 20000 PT patronage in Auckland Problem 15000 Net Tonne−kms (millions) diagnosis Models in practice 10000 Auckland regional models Freight models 5000 VEPM Conclusions 0 Knowledge 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 gaps References

  18. Light private vehicles (LPV) constitute about 80% of the fleet in NZ and made about 78% of VKT UNITS Dr Judith Wang Vehicle Fleet Composition Vehicle-Kilometres Travelled Outline Source:MoT Source:MoT Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work 50 statistics 3500000 BUS BUS HCV HCV Transport costs MCY MCY LCV LCV in Auckland LPV 40 LPV PT patronage in 2500000 Auckland Vehicle−Km (billions) 30 Problem Vehicles diagnosis 1500000 20 Models in practice 10 500000 Auckland regional models Freight models 0 0 VEPM 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Financial Year Financial Year Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  19. Changes in fleet composition and their usage (VKT) follow very different patterns UNITS Dr Judith Wang Vehicle Fleet per Capita VKT per Capita Outline Percentage Increase (vs 2000) Percentage Increase (vs 2001) Background Source:MoT Source:MoT VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs 40 LPV per Capita VKT.LPV per Capita 60 in Auckland LCV per Capita VKT.LCV per Capita MCY per Capita VKT.MCY per Capita PT patronage in HCV per Capita VKT.HCV per Capita 30 BUS per Capita 50 VKT.BUS per Capita Auckland Problem 40 Percentage Increase Percentage Increase 20 diagnosis 30 Models in 10 20 practice Auckland 10 0 regional models Freight models 0 −10 VEPM 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Conclusions Time Time Knowledge gaps References

  20. VKT by commercial vehicles (LCV+HCV) have increased while that of LPV has decreased UNITS Dr Judith Wang Percentage change in vehicle-kilometres composition Outline Source:MoT Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work VKT FY 2001 VKT FY 2008 statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland LPV 77.6% LPV 79.6% Problem diagnosis BUS 0.4% BUS 0.6% Models in HCV 5.8% HCV 6.6% practice MCY 0.5% MCY 0.8% Auckland regional models LCV 13.6% LCV 14.4% Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  21. Driving is also the current major mode for journey-to-work UNITS Dr Judith 0.68 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.79 Wang 1.0 Outline 0.8 Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics 0.6 Transport costs Proportion in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland 0.4 Problem diagnosis Models in 0.2 practice Auckland regional models Freight models 0.0 VEPM 1989/90 1997/98 2003−07 2004−08 2005−09 Conclusions Period Knowledge gaps Source:MoT References

  22. More people are driving to work alone UNITS Dr Judith 0.81 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.86 Wang 1.0 Passenger Outline Car 0.8 Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics 0.6 Transport costs Proportion in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland 0.4 Problem diagnosis Models in 0.2 practice Auckland regional models Freight models 0.0 VEPM 1989/90 1997/98 2003−07 2004−08 2005−09 Conclusions Period Knowledge gaps Source:MoT References

  23. Public transport modal share has increased in recent years UNITS Dr Judith 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.92 Wang 1.0 PT Outline Car+PT Passenger Car 0.8 Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics 0.6 Transport costs Proportion in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland 0.4 Problem diagnosis Models in 0.2 practice Auckland regional models Freight models 0.0 VEPM 1989/90 1997/98 2003−07 2004−08 2005−09 Conclusions Period Knowledge gaps Source:MoT References

  24. Less people are walking or cycling to work UNITS Dr Judith 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Wang 1.0 Other Outline Cycle Walk PT 0.8 Background Car+PT Passenger VKT statistics Car Journey-to-Work statistics 0.6 Transport costs Proportion in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland 0.4 Problem diagnosis Models in 0.2 practice Auckland regional models Freight models 0.0 VEPM 1989/90 1997/98 2003−07 2004−08 2005−09 Conclusions Period Knowledge gaps Source:MoT References

  25. Some places are accessible only by car UNITS Dr Judith JTW % By Car JTW % By Bus Wang Source: Census 2006, ARTA Source: Census 2006, ARTA Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  26. Some places are accessible only by car UNITS Dr Judith Wang JTW % By Bus Roads with more than 80 buses Source: Census 2006, ARTA Outline per day Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work Source: ARC statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  27. Central Business District (CBD) has lower car use UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps Source: Census 2006, ARTA References

  28. CBD has higher percentage of walk trips UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge Source: Census 2006, ARTA gaps References

  29. CBD also has more people bike to work UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps Source: Census 2006, ARTA References

  30. However not everyone wants to live in CBD! UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline % Trips by Bus % Trips by Car Background % Trips by Rail Source: Census 2006, ARTA VKT statistics Journey-to-Work Source: Census 2006, ARTA statistics Source: Census 2006, ARTA Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  31. Jakob et al. (2006) analysed the total costs of private and public transport in Auckland UNITS Dr Judith 1 Internal cost Wang ‘out of pocket’ costs in transport, money which is directly Outline spent by the government to run the transportation system Background 2 External cost VKT statistics Journey-to-Work Accident costs statistics Transport costs in Auckland Medical costs, rehabilitation costs, legal costs PT patronage in Auckland Costs due to loss of production Problem Property damage diagnosis Air pollution costs Models in practice Health damage Auckland regional models Damage to vegetation and buildings Freight models VEPM Climate change costs Conclusions CO 2 emission Knowledge gaps References

  32. Transport costs in Auckland (2001) UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background Air pollution costs Internal costs VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Climate change costs Accident costs Problem diagnosis Models in practice Source: Jakob et al. (2006) Source: Jakob et al. (2006) Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  33. Total transport external costs in Auckland (2001) UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland Source: Jakob et al. (2006) PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in Private transport is subsidised 3.5 cents per pax-km more practice Auckland than public transport! regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  34. Total transport external costs in Auckland (2001) UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland Source: Jakob et al. (2006) PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in Private transport is subsidised 3.5 cents per pax-km more practice Auckland than public transport! regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  35. Public transport is a much more efficient mode than private transport! UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Internal External Background 0.12 VKT statistics 0.10 Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs NZD per pax−km 0.08 in Auckland PT patronage in 0.06 Auckland Problem 0.04 diagnosis Source: Jakob et al. (2006) 0.02 Models in practice 0.00 Auckland Public Transport Private Transport regional models Freight models VEPM Source: Jakob et al. (2006) Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  36. Air pollution cost is the second biggest external cost in transport only after congestion cost UNITS Transport external costs in Auckland(2001) Dr Judith Wang Source: Jakob et al. (2006) Outline Background VKT statistics Air Pollution 58% Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Climate Change Costs 6% Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Accidents 36% Knowledge gaps References

  37. Bus patronage has been increasing since 1999 while rail patronage has been increasing only since 2003 UNITS Dr Judith Bus and Rail Patronage per Capita Auckland 1996–2008 Wang Source:ARTA,NZSTAT Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  38. Bus services has been significantly improved in response to the increase in demand since 1999 UNITS Dr Judith Wang Bus Patronage and Bus-kilometres per Capita in Auckland 1996–2008 Outline Source:ARTA,NZSTAT Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  39. Deregulation of bus services induced a significant increase in fare UNITS Dr Judith Wang Bus Patronage per Capita and Revenue per Bus Passenger in Auckland 1996–2008 Outline Source:ARTA,NZSTAT Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  40. Rail patronage has been on a steep climb since the opening of Britomart in 2003 UNITS Dr Judith Wang Rail Patronage and train-kilometres per Capita in Auckland 1996–2008 Outline Source:ARTA,NZSTAT Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  41. Despite significant increase in rail fare, rail patronage has been climbing steeply UNITS Dr Judith Wang Rail Patronage per Capita and Revenue per Rail Passenger in Auckland 1996–2008 Outline Source:ARTA,NZSTAT Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  42. Car ownership has been on the rise with increase in income UNITS Dr Judith Real Disposable Income and Car Ownership per Capita in Wang Auckland 1996–2008 Outline Source:NZTA,NZSTAT Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  43. Car ownership’s increasing trend has flattened while fuel price has been rapidly increasing UNITS Dr Judith Wang Fuel Price and Car Ownership per Capita in Auckland 1996–2008 Outline Source:MED,NZTA,NZSTAT Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  44. The increase and fluctuations in fuel price in recent years did have a positive impact on PT patronage UNITS Dr Judith Fuel Price versus PT Patronage per Capita 1996–2008 Wang Source:MED,ARTA,NZTA Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  45. Summary of Findings UNITS Dr Judith More people are driving to work alone Wang Public transport modal share has increased in recent years Outline Background Less people are walking to work VKT statistics Journey-to-Work And even less people are cycling to work statistics Transport costs in Auckland Fuel price fluctuations did have an impact on both VKT PT patronage in Auckland by car and PT patronage but the effect on VKT by Problem commercial vehicles is not as significant diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Is our transportation system becoming more sustainable?? Freight models VEPM I am not sure! Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  46. Summary of Findings UNITS Dr Judith More people are driving to work alone Wang Public transport modal share has increased in recent years Outline Background Less people are walking to work VKT statistics Journey-to-Work And even less people are cycling to work statistics Transport costs in Auckland Fuel price fluctuations did have an impact on both VKT PT patronage in Auckland by car and PT patronage but the effect on VKT by Problem commercial vehicles is not as significant diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Is our transportation system becoming more sustainable?? Freight models VEPM I am not sure! Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  47. Summary of Findings UNITS Dr Judith More people are driving to work alone Wang Public transport modal share has increased in recent years Outline Background Less people are walking to work VKT statistics Journey-to-Work And even less people are cycling to work statistics Transport costs in Auckland Fuel price fluctuations did have an impact on both VKT PT patronage in Auckland by car and PT patronage but the effect on VKT by Problem commercial vehicles is not as significant diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Is our transportation system becoming more sustainable?? Freight models VEPM I am not sure! Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  48. Overview UNITS 1 Background Dr Judith VKT statistics Wang Journey-to-Work statistics Outline Transport costs in Auckland Background VKT statistics PT patronage in Auckland Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs 2 Problem diagnosis in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland 3 Models in practice Problem diagnosis Auckland regional models Models in Freight models practice Auckland VEPM regional models Freight models VEPM 4 Conclusions Conclusions Knowledge 5 Knowledge gaps gaps References

  49. Why are we not achieving sustainable development? UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the Background marginal social cost of driving? VKT statistics Journey-to-Work Do people really have a choice? Are public transport statistics Transport costs services good enough to be a subsitute? in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the Problem diagnosis more sustainable transport modes? Models in Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more practice Auckland sustainable city? regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  50. Why are we not achieving sustainable development? UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the Background marginal social cost of driving? VKT statistics Journey-to-Work Do people really have a choice? Are public transport statistics Transport costs services good enough to be a subsitute? in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the Problem diagnosis more sustainable transport modes? Models in Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more practice Auckland sustainable city? regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  51. Why are we not achieving sustainable development? UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the Background marginal social cost of driving? VKT statistics Journey-to-Work Do people really have a choice? Are public transport statistics Transport costs services good enough to be a subsitute? in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the Problem diagnosis more sustainable transport modes? Models in Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more practice Auckland sustainable city? regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  52. Why are we not achieving sustainable development? UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the Background marginal social cost of driving? VKT statistics Journey-to-Work Do people really have a choice? Are public transport statistics Transport costs services good enough to be a subsitute? in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the Problem diagnosis more sustainable transport modes? Models in Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more practice Auckland sustainable city? regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  53. I believe the real problem is ... UNITS Dr Judith Wang A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport Outline and road focussed planning policy Background Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 VKT statistics Journey-to-Work induced by: statistics Transport costs in Auckland Privatisation of public transport services PT patronage in Auckland Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became Problem available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998 diagnosis Congestion costs the region’s economy approximately $900 Models in practice million per year (MoT, 2006) Auckland regional models Freight models Public transport systems need to be improved VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  54. I believe the real problem is ... UNITS Dr Judith Wang A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport Outline and road focussed planning policy Background Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 VKT statistics Journey-to-Work induced by: statistics Transport costs in Auckland Privatisation of public transport services PT patronage in Auckland Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became Problem available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998 diagnosis Congestion costs the region’s economy approximately $900 Models in practice million per year (MoT, 2006) Auckland regional models Freight models Public transport systems need to be improved VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  55. I believe the real problem is ... UNITS Dr Judith Wang A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport Outline and road focussed planning policy Background Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 VKT statistics Journey-to-Work induced by: statistics Transport costs in Auckland Privatisation of public transport services PT patronage in Auckland Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became Problem available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998 diagnosis Congestion costs the region’s economy approximately $900 Models in practice million per year (MoT, 2006) Auckland regional models Freight models Public transport systems need to be improved VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  56. I believe the real problem is ... UNITS Dr Judith Wang A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport Outline and road focussed planning policy Background Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 VKT statistics Journey-to-Work induced by: statistics Transport costs in Auckland Privatisation of public transport services PT patronage in Auckland Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became Problem available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998 diagnosis Congestion costs the region’s economy approximately $900 Models in practice million per year (MoT, 2006) Auckland regional models Freight models Public transport systems need to be improved VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  57. But I also believe we have hope because ... UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Rail patronage had been stagnant for many many years Background until the opening of the Britomart train station in 2003 VKT statistics Journey-to-Work The investment and continuous improvement in public statistics Transport costs in Auckland transport services did have a positive effect on patronage, PT patronage in Auckland e.g. North Shore Busway Problem diagnosis The fluctuations in fuel price in recent years also had a Models in positive effect on public transport patronage in the recent practice Auckland five years (Wang, 2009) regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  58. But I also believe we have hope because ... UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Rail patronage had been stagnant for many many years Background until the opening of the Britomart train station in 2003 VKT statistics Journey-to-Work The investment and continuous improvement in public statistics Transport costs in Auckland transport services did have a positive effect on patronage, PT patronage in Auckland e.g. North Shore Busway Problem diagnosis The fluctuations in fuel price in recent years also had a Models in positive effect on public transport patronage in the recent practice Auckland five years (Wang, 2009) regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  59. But I also believe we have hope because ... UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Rail patronage had been stagnant for many many years Background until the opening of the Britomart train station in 2003 VKT statistics Journey-to-Work The investment and continuous improvement in public statistics Transport costs in Auckland transport services did have a positive effect on patronage, PT patronage in Auckland e.g. North Shore Busway Problem diagnosis The fluctuations in fuel price in recent years also had a Models in positive effect on public transport patronage in the recent practice Auckland five years (Wang, 2009) regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  60. I believe that the current economic evaluation procedure might not lead to a desirable outcome UNITS Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Dr Judith Wang Costs Outline Capital, maintenance and operating costs Background Property costs VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Environmental mitigation measures Transport costs in Auckland Climate change ($40 per tonne) PT patronage in Auckland Induced traffic (not always!) Problem diagnosis Benefits Models in practice Travel time costs ($23.85/hr for work travel, $7.8/hr for Auckland regional models commuting, $6.9/hr for non-work travel) Freight models VEPM Vehicle operating costs Conclusions Knowledge Accident costs gaps References

  61. I believe that the current economic evaluation procedure might not lead to a desirable outcome UNITS Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Dr Judith Wang Costs Outline Capital, maintenance and operating costs Background Property costs VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Environmental mitigation measures Transport costs in Auckland Climate change ($40 per tonne) PT patronage in Auckland Induced traffic (not always!) Problem diagnosis Benefits Models in practice Travel time costs ($23.85/hr for work travel, $7.8/hr for Auckland regional models commuting, $6.9/hr for non-work travel) Freight models VEPM Vehicle operating costs Conclusions Knowledge Accident costs gaps References

  62. The myth of travel time saving is debatable UNITS Average travel time (hours per person per year) in the Dr Judith U.K. Wang Source:Metz (2008) Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  63. Is travel time saving a myth in NZ? UNITS Dr Judith Wang Over 95% of benefits of the Waterview Connection arise Outline from travel time saving Background VKT statistics In Britain, for example, travel time savings have accounted Journey-to-Work statistics for around 80% of the monetised benefits within the CBA Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in of major road schemes (Metz, 2008) Auckland Problem Metz (2008) diagnosis “[..]If travel time savings have significant value only in the Models in practice short run, then it follows that the economic benefit of Auckland regional models long-lived interventions has been misspecified” Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  64. What is missing in CBA? UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Opportunity cost/use of land (parking and road Background infrastructure) VKT statistics Journey-to-Work Change in urban form and hence the possibility of statistics Transport costs in Auckland diminishing travel time saving PT patronage in Auckland Other possible environmental performance measures, e.g. Problem diagnosis Impact of air pollution from vehicle emission on health Energy efficiency for the transportation system as a whole Models in practice Auckland Wider welfare benefits, e.g. agglomeration economies regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  65. Overview UNITS 1 Background Dr Judith VKT statistics Wang Journey-to-Work statistics Outline Transport costs in Auckland Background VKT statistics PT patronage in Auckland Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs 2 Problem diagnosis in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland 3 Models in practice Problem diagnosis Auckland regional models Models in Freight models practice Auckland VEPM regional models Freight models VEPM 4 Conclusions Conclusions Knowledge 5 Knowledge gaps gaps References

  66. Transport has a derived demand UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline In a market economy, transportation demand presumably Background arises as a result of utility maximisation by VKT statistics Journey-to-Work individuals/households and profit maximisation by firms statistics Transport costs in Auckland Because travel is a means to an end rather than an end PT patronage in Auckland itself , transport has a “derived demand” Problem diagnosis All transport demand forecasts, therefore, must begin with Models in some knowledge of the geographic or spatial distribution practice Auckland of economic activities regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  67. Overview of the Transport Planning Process UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  68. Analysis of the Current Situation UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  69. Travel Demand Forecast and Future Scenario Analysis UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  70. Travel demand models for person trips are far more advanced than for freight trips in practice UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  71. The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model UNITS Dr Judith Wang 1 Trip Generation Outline forecasts the number of trips that will be made Background 2 Trip Distribution VKT statistics Journey-to-Work determines where the trips will go statistics Transport costs 3 Modal Split in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland predicts how the trips will be divided among the available Problem modes of travel diagnosis 4 Trip Assignment Models in practice predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in Auckland regional models traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership Freight models VEPM forecast for the public transport system Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  72. The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model UNITS Dr Judith Wang 1 Trip Generation Outline forecasts the number of trips that will be made Background 2 Trip Distribution VKT statistics Journey-to-Work determines where the trips will go statistics Transport costs 3 Modal Split in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland predicts how the trips will be divided among the available Problem modes of travel diagnosis 4 Trip Assignment Models in practice predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in Auckland regional models traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership Freight models VEPM forecast for the public transport system Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  73. The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model UNITS Dr Judith Wang 1 Trip Generation Outline forecasts the number of trips that will be made Background 2 Trip Distribution VKT statistics Journey-to-Work determines where the trips will go statistics Transport costs 3 Modal Split in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland predicts how the trips will be divided among the available Problem modes of travel diagnosis 4 Trip Assignment Models in practice predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in Auckland regional models traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership Freight models VEPM forecast for the public transport system Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  74. The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model UNITS Dr Judith Wang 1 Trip Generation Outline forecasts the number of trips that will be made Background 2 Trip Distribution VKT statistics Journey-to-Work determines where the trips will go statistics Transport costs 3 Modal Split in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland predicts how the trips will be divided among the available Problem modes of travel diagnosis 4 Trip Assignment Models in practice predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in Auckland regional models traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership Freight models VEPM forecast for the public transport system Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  75. Auckland Regional Transport Planning Modelling Suite UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps Source: ARC (2009), Simmonds (1999) References

  76. The Economic Futures Model (EFM) is based on a regional economic input-output table UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models Source: ARC (2009) VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  77. The Auckland Transport Models (ATM2) UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Source: based on Simmonds (1999) Knowledge gaps References

  78. A schematic model for forecasting persons and freight transport demand UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Source:Meyer and Straszheim (1971) Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  79. Relationships between transportation and economic activities are modelled with a feedback mechanism UNITS Dr Judith Wang Outline Background VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Source:Meyer and Straszheim (1971) Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  80. Trip Generation UNITS Models for the Trip Genera- Dr Judith Wang tion: Outline Trend and Time Series Background Input-Output Model VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  81. Trip Generation UNITS Models for the Trip Genera- Dr Judith tion: Wang Trend and Time Outline Series Background VKT statistics Input-Output Model Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis - Trend and time series models predict future trips by ex- Models in trapolating historical data. practice Auckland - Included in the ART3 and EFM model. regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  82. Trip Generation UNITS Models for the Trip Genera- Dr Judith Wang tion: Outline Trend and Time Series Background Input-Output Model VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem - Input-Output models use detailed I-O tables describing diagnosis the monetary flows between sectors. Models in practice - Those flows can be factorised with the corresponding Auckland regional models sectoral growth rate and then converted into commodity Freight models VEPM flows. Conclusions - I-O models are used in a variety of models: Italy, Knowledge gaps PINGO(Norway) and SCENES(European Union) References

  83. Trip Distribution UNITS Models for the Trip Distribu- Dr Judith Wang tion: Outline Gravity Model Background Input-Output Analysis VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  84. Trip Distribution UNITS Models for the Trip Distribu- Dr Judith Wang tion: Outline Gravity Model Background Input-Output Analysis VKT statistics Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem - Gravity model predicts the flow as a function of produc- diagnosis tion and attraction measures Models in practice - Those act like the masses in gravity theory Auckland regional models - Transportation cost represents the distance between the Freight models VEPM masses Conclusions - Applied in several models: TEM-II Models, SMILE(both Knowledge gaps Netherlands) References

  85. Trip Distribution UNITS Models for the Trip Distribu- Dr Judith tion: Wang Gravity Model Outline Input-Output Background VKT statistics Analysis Journey-to-Work statistics Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis - Multiregional input-output tables are analysed Models in - The distribution of the trips is derived from the spatial practice Auckland data in the tables regional models Freight models - Implemented in the STREAMS and the SCENES model VEPM (both Europe) Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

  86. Mode choice Models for the Mode Choice: UNITS Dr Judith Wang Logistics Model Outline Microsimulation Background VKT statistics Multimodal Network Journey-to-Work statistics Models Transport costs in Auckland PT patronage in Auckland Problem diagnosis Models in practice Auckland regional models Freight models VEPM Conclusions Knowledge gaps References

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