Annual and Special Meeting Joh John Flo loren en, Pres esiden - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Annual and Special Meeting Joh John Flo loren en, Pres esiden - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Annual and Special Meeting Joh John Flo loren en, Pres esiden ent t and CE CEO April 27, 2017 Forward-looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures Information contained in these materials or presented orally at this meeting, either in


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SLIDE 1

Annual and Special Meeting

Joh John Flo loren en, Pres esiden ent t and CE CEO April 27, 2017

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SLIDE 2

Information contained in these materials or presented orally at this meeting, either in prepared remarks or in response to questions, contains forward-looking statements. For more information, please refer to the Forward-looking Statements slide at the end of this presentation. This presentation also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures that do not have any standardized meaning and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. For more information regarding these non-GAAP measures, please see our 2016 annual MD&A and our first quarter 2017 MD&A.

Forward-looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures

2

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SLIDE 3

Methanex Strategy

3

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SLIDE 4

Responsible Care

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (RIFR)

Employees Contractors Blended RIFR Blended Target

4

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SLIDE 5

Environment

5

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SLIDE 6

Social Responsibility

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SLIDE 7

Investing in People

7

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SLIDE 8

Methanol Price

8

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016 Q3 2016 Q1 2017

U.S .S. $/ $/tonne

Meth thanex Average Rea ealiz ized Meth thanol l Pric rice

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SLIDE 9

Methanol Demand Growth

9

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 mill millions of

  • f ton
  • nnes

Traditional Other E Energy MTO

2012 – 2016 CAGR: 8%

Source: Methanex

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SLIDE 10

Growing Energy Applications

10

Fue Fuel Bl Blendin ing Meth thanol Ind Industrial Bo Boile ilers Mar arine Fue Fuels

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SLIDE 11

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Tradit itio ional Other E Energy MTO MTO

Forecast Demand Growth

Millions of tonnes of methanol

11

2016 – 2020 CAGR: 5%

Source: IHS Chemical

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SLIDE 12

Capital Projects 2011-16

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$100 mill illion Medicine Hat

  • Restart
  • Refurbishment
  • Expansion

$1.4 .4 billio illion Geismar Relocation $200 mill illion New Zealand

  • Restart (2 plants)
  • Refurbishment
  • Expansion
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SLIDE 13

Chile Growth Opportunity

13

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SLIDE 14

Capital Investments

  • 100

200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 FCST millions of dollars Potential Chile Investment Growth Capital Expenditures Maintenance Capital Expenditures

14

  • $2.1

.1 billio illion invested 2011-2016

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SLIDE 15

3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.9 5.2 7.0 7.7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Run- rate

Production Volume – Methanex Share

(millions of tonnes)

Methanex Production Doubled Versus 2010

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SLIDE 16

Financial Summary

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U.S .S. $m $mil illions except t as as ind ndicated

Q1 Q1-17 17 2016 2016 2015 2015

Sales les volu

  • lume

e (0 (000s ton

  • nnes)

2,5 2,572 9,4 9,478 8,4 8,471

Production (0 (000s ton

  • nnes)

1,8 1,866 7,0 7,017 5,1 5,193

Adjusted EBI BITDA

267 267 287 287 401 401

Adjusted net t in income e (los (loss)

140 140 (15 (15) 110 110

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SLIDE 17
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

  • $1.00

$0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1-1

  • 17

Modified ROCE Adjusted EPS

A Adjusted EPS M Modif ifie ied R ROCE

  • Average Modified ROCE of 12% from 2007-2016

Financial Results

17

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SLIDE 18

Run-rate EBITDA and Free Cash Flow Capability

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8% 13 13% 18 18% 22 22%

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 300 350 400 450 millions of dollars

Methanol price (dollars per tonne)

EBITDA Free Cash Flow Free cash flow yield at $50 share price

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SLIDE 19

Returning Excess Cash to Shareholders

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EST 2017 millions of dollars Dividends Estimated remaining 2017 dividend Share Repurchases Potential purchases under 10% NCIB

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$1 billio illion returned to shareholders January 1, 2011 to April 26, 2017

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SLIDE 20

Dividend Growth and Shares Outstanding

80 100 120 140 160 180

$0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 E Shares Outstanding (millions) Regular Annual Dividend (US$) Regular Dividends per Share Weighted Avg Shares Outstanding

20

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SLIDE 21

Total Annual Shareholder Return – last 15 Years

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15.1 .1% 10.4 .4% 7.4 .4%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Methanex S&P 5 500 Chemic icals ls I Index S&P T TSX SX I Index

Source: RBC Capital Markets

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SLIDE 22
  • Strong market leadership position
  • Continued investment in people, reliability, safety and the environment
  • Continuing to foster new energy applications for methanol
  • Low capital cost growth potential in Chile
  • Limited near-term financial commitments
  • Expect strong cash generation at a range of methanol prices
  • Excess cash to be allocated to dividends and share repurchases

Summary

Com

  • mmitted to
  • Return Exce

cess Cas ash to

  • Sh

Shar areholders

22

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SLIDE 23

Thank You

www.methanex.com linkedin.com/company/methanex- corporation @Methanex

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SLIDE 24

APPENDIX

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Sli Slide Ass Assumptions

11 11 Demand forecast excludes demand from integrated coal-to-olefins plants (CTO) 14 14 Capital expenditures shown include Methanex’s propionate share of capital for Egypt (50%) and Atlas (63.1%) Maintenance expenditures include expenditures on catalyst, plants turnarounds, sustaining capital and other expenditures required to maintain the condition of plant assets. Growth and other capital expenditures include all other expenditures to grow the business. 15 15 Production shown includes Methanex’s proportionate for Egypt (50%) and Atlas (63.1%). Run-rate operating rate assumptions are: Geismar / Medicine Hat – 100%; NZ 92% (2.2MM tonnes); Trinidad 85%; Egypt 50%; Chile I 100%; Chile IV 0% 16 16 Production volume shown is Methanex’s proportionate share 17 17 1. Adjusted EPS = Adjusted net income per common share attributable to Methanex shareholders (excludes the after-tax mark-to-market impact of share-based compensation and the impact of certain items associated with specific identified events) 2. Modified ROCE = Adjusted net income before finance costs (after-tax) divided by average productive capital employed. Average productive capital employed is the sum of average total assets (excluding plants under construction) less the average of current non-interest-bearing liabilities. 3. Adjusted net income, Adjusted EPS and Modified ROCE are non-GAAP measures - for more information regarding this non-GAAP measure, please see our 2016 annual MD&A 18 18 Run-rate operating rate assumptions are described in the notes to slide 15 above. EBITDA reflects Methanex's proportionate ownership interest. Free cash flow is calculated after cash interest, maintenance capital of approximately $80 million, cash taxes, debt service and other cash payments. Free cash flow yield is calculated based on 90 million weighted average diluted shares for Q1, 2017 and share price of US$50/share 19 19 The potential purchases under a 10% NCIB are calculated assuming a total of 6.2 million shares are purchased. The first 1,580,000 shares are purchased for US$73 million, and the remaining approximately 4,620,000 shares are purchased at an average price of US$50 per share. The remaining dividend payable assumes that a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share is approved for 3 quarters by the Methanex Board of Directors and paid to an average number of shares outstanding of 86 million shares. 21 21 Source: RBC Capital Markets, based on Bloomberg information as at April 21, 2017. Assumes dividends are reinvested

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SLIDE 25

Forward-looking information warning

This Presentation, our Fourth Quarter 2016 Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) and comments made during the Fourth Quarter 2016 investor conference call contain forward-looking statements with respect to us and our industry. These statements relate to future events or our future performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. Statements that include the words “believes,” “expects,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “potential,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “aim,” “goal” or other comparable terminology and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature identify forward-looking

  • statements. More particularly and without limitation, any statements regarding the following are forward-looking statements: expected demand for methanol and its derivatives; expected new methanol supply or restart of

idled capacity and timing for start-up of the same; expected shutdowns (either temporary or permanent) or restarts of existing methanol supply (including our own facilities), including, without limitation, the timing and length of planned maintenance outages; expected methanol and energy prices; expected levels of methanol purchases from traders or other third parties; expected levels, timing and availability of economically priced natural gas supply to each of our plants; capital committed by third parties towards future natural gas exploration and development in the vicinity of our plants; our expected capital expenditures, anticipated operating rates

  • f our plants, expected operating costs, including natural gas feedstock costs and logistics costs; expected tax rates or resolutions to tax disputes; expected cash flows, earnings capability and share price; availability of

committed credit facilities and other financing; our ability to meet covenants or obtain or continue to obtain waivers associated with our long-term debt obligations, including, without limitation, the Egypt limited recourse debt facilities that have conditions associated with the payment of cash or other distributions and the finalization of certain land title registrations and related mortgages which require actions by Egyptian governmental entities; expected impact on our results of operations in Egypt or our financial condition as a consequence of civil unrest or actions taken or inaction by the Government of Egypt and its agencies; our shareholder distribution strategy and anticipated distributions to shareholders; commercial viability and timing of, or our ability to execute, future projects, plant restarts, capacity expansions, plant relocations, or other business initiatives or

  • pportunities; our financial strength and ability to meet future financial commitments; expected global or regional economic activity (including industrial production levels); expected outcomes of litigation or other disputes,

claims and assessments; and expected actions of governments, government agencies, gas suppliers, courts, tribunals or other third parties. We believe that we have a reasonable basis for making such forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this document are based on our experience, our perception of trends, current conditions and expected future developments as well as other factors. Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts or projections that are included in these forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, future expectations and assumptions concerning the following: the supply of, demand for and price of methanol, methanol derivatives, natural gas, coal, oil and oil derivatives; our ability to procure natural gas feedstock on commercially acceptable terms; operating rates of our facilities; receipt or issuance of third-party consents or approvals, including, without limitation, governmental registrations of land title and related mortgages in Egypt and governmental approvals related to rights to purchase natural gas; the establishment of new fuel standards; operating costs, including natural gas feedstock and logistics costs, capital costs, tax rates, cash flows, foreign exchange rates and interest rates; the availability of committed credit facilities and other financing; global and regional economic activity (including industrial production levels); absence of a material negative impact from major natural disasters; absence of a material negative impact from changes in laws or regulations; absence of a material negative impact from political instability in the countries in which we operate; and enforcement of contractual arrangements and ability to perform contractual obligations by customers, natural gas and other suppliers and other third parties. However, forward-looking statements, by their nature, involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements. The risks and uncertainties primarily include those attendant with producing and marketing methanol and successfully carrying out major capital expenditure projects in various jurisdictions, including, without limitation: conditions in the methanol and other industries including fluctuations in the supply, demand and price for methanol and its derivatives, including demand for methanol for energy uses, the price of natural gas, coal, oil and oil derivatives; our ability to obtain natural gas feedstock on commercially acceptable terms to underpin current operations and future production growth opportunities; the ability to carry out corporate initiatives and strategies; actions of competitors, suppliers and financial institutions; conditions within the natural gas delivery systems that may prevent delivery of our natural gas supply requirements; competing demand for natural gas, especially with respect to domestic needs for gas and electricity in Chile and Egypt; actions of governments and governmental authorities, including, without limitation, the implementation of policies or other measures that could impact the supply

  • f or demand for methanol or its derivatives; changes in laws or regulations, import or export restrictions, anti-dumping measures, increases in duties, taxes and government royalties, and other actions by governments that

may adversely affect our operations or existing contractual arrangements; world-wide economic conditions; and other risks described in our annual 2016 Management’s Discussion and Analysis and our First Quarter 2017 Management’s Discussion and Analysis. Having in mind these and other factors, investors and other readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. They are not a substitute for the exercise of one’s own due diligence and

  • judgment. The outcomes implied by forward-looking statements may not occur and we do not undertake to update forward-looking statements except as required by applicable securities laws.