United Nations Department of Political Affairs: Conflict Assessments - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

united nations department of political affairs
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

United Nations Department of Political Affairs: Conflict Assessments - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

United Nations Department of Political Affairs: Conflict Assessments and Strategies Advisor: Ambassador Rafat Mahdi Conflicting Methodologies: A Comparison of Major Conflict Analyses and Lessons for the UN System By Joanna (Jojo) Da-Sylva,


slide-1
SLIDE 1

United Nations Department of Political Affairs: Conflict Assessments and Strategies

Advisor: Ambassador Rafat Mahdi

Conflicting Methodologies: A Comparison of Major Conflict Analyses and Lessons for the UN System By Joanna (Jojo) Da-Sylva, Jenny Hughes, and Bijal Patel

  • Preventive Diplomacy and Combustibles with Regard to Electoral

Violence: Case Studies and Literature Review By Otilia Mirambeaux and Elizabeth Buckley

  • Afghanistan Elections: Lessons Learned and Recommendations for

Electoral Reform By Anthony B. Lopez and Anna Novick

Practicum Presentation The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Conflicting Methodologies: A Comparison of Major Conflict Analyses and their Lessons for the UN System

Advisor: Ambassador Rafat Mahdi By Bijal Patel, Jenny Hughes and Joanna (Jojo) Da-Sylva

slide-3
SLIDE 3

The challenge:

  • Many Conflict Analysis methodologies available
  • Lack of guidance on how to translate findings into effective

strategy and practice

Our objective:

  • The key objective is to make recommendations to strengthen

the Strategic Assessment’s process and product

  • We review the methodologies, processes, and tactics of CAs

and the UN’s Strategic Assessment

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Our Methodology

  • Studied conflict assessment methodologies
  • Developed matrix to compare and contrast

methodologies

  • Conducted interviews
  • In depth study of Somali conflict

assessments

  • Recommendations
slide-5
SLIDE 5

Matrix: Comparison of Methodologies

DFID: Conducting conflict Assessments Guidance Notes, 2002 Alleviate Poverty Development Oriented. Multi-stakeholder, focusing on donors. Mainly international and regional orgs., but also national and local. To predict and assess the potential or actual impact of development assistance on the dynamics of peace and conflict. The World Bank: The Conflict Analysis Framework, 2005 Poverty Alleviation and Resiliency Host governments and potentially civil society; local and international partners;

  • ther development actors.

To help bank teams consider factors affecting conflict and ensure support to poverty reduction strategy papers and reinforce resilience to violent conflict. UNDP: Framework for Conflict Analysis, 2004 Development focused Multi-stakeholder, high involvement and participation from national government Analyzing causes of conflict to plan a common framework that will identify key elements of peace-building, defined as structures, mechanisms, processes, and institutions. FEWER ( Network for Peace-Building, Center for Conflict Research): Conflict Analysis and Response Definition-- Methodology, 2001 Prevention of conflict Diplomatic and development actors, mainly desk officers and policy makers in foreign policy and development

  • department. Indigenous and international

NGOs engaged in early warning. Conflict analysis is the center of this

  • methodology. It provides an analytical and

action framework, which will help plan preliminary responses to early warning. CPR Network (Conflict Prevention and Post-Conflict Reconstruction Network): Early Warning and Early Response Handbook Development oriented guide for those working in Conflict Prevention and Post- Conflict Reconstruction. International Donors and agencies, local actors Development of practical tools, development of lessons learned and applying them in the field, and bridging between policy research and operations. USAID: Conflict Vulnerability Analysis (CVA) Conflict prevention, resiliency agencies on the ground, other stakeholders Incorporates medium and long term analysis to evaluate the likelihood that a country will descend into violent conflict. Focuses on identifying possible USAID program initiatives that may strengthen the country’s capacity to deal with conflict risk factors.

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Case Study: Somalia

  • Compare UK Department
  • f International

Development (DFID) and UN Strategic Assessment processes to distinguish best practices

  • Results of the UN

Strategic Assessment in Somalia

  • Assess the UN Strategic

Assessment

slide-7
SLIDE 7

UNDPA Process

  • Inclusive conflict

assessment

  • Process: desk review,

fieldwork and consultations with stakeholders, civil society, NGOs, etc.

  • Priorities identified
slide-8
SLIDE 8

Results of Strategic Assessment in Somalia

  • Unsuccessful because of no

common expectations

  • Strengthened cooperation

among UN agencies

  • Received funds
  • Directed senior level

attention

  • Lost support of Special

Representative of the Secretary General

  • Two-page version of report

circulated

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Problems Specific to the UN Strategic Assessment in Somalia

  • No buy-in from Special

Representative of the Secretary General

  • Lack of security
  • Location of the agency
  • Lack of cooperation between

DPKO and UNDPA

  • No security expertise on the

UN team

  • Disagreements between the

development arm and the humanitarian arm

  • Lack of senior level staff
slide-10
SLIDE 10

Strengths of Conflict Assessments

  • Knowledge at local level
  • Team composition
  • Bring actors together
slide-11
SLIDE 11

Difficulties of Conflict Assessments

  • Shortage of staff
  • Junior level staff
  • Political interest
  • Buy-in and cooperation
  • Lack of communication and coherence
  • Accountability and follow-up
  • Implementation
slide-12
SLIDE 12

Recommendations for Effective Conflict Assessments

  • Communication
  • Competitive advantage
  • Support of Special Representative
  • f Secretary General and Policy

Committee

  • Frequent field visits
  • Goals, long term objectives
  • Rapid Response strategy
  • Increased time to write and discuss
  • Dissemination strategy
  • Follow-up mechanisms
  • Plan into policy
slide-13
SLIDE 13

Preventive Diplomacy and Combustibles with Regard to Electoral Violence: Case Studies and a Literature Review

ELIZABETH BUCKLEY OTILIA MIRAMBEAUX Advisor: AMBASSADOR RAFAT MAHDI

Case Studies from: Burundi Kenya Nigeria Rwanda Sierra Leone Sri Lanka Literature Reviews from: AAI Arend Lijphart GPPAC Jack Snyder Timothy Sisk

Photo from: http://www.flickr.com/photos/oaxacania/3211279323/in/pool-kenyaelections2008

slide-14
SLIDE 14

ASSIGNMENT The Project:

  • Explore CAUSES &

DYNAMICS around electoral violence and TOOLS to prevent such violence

  • Conduct A

THOROUGH REVIEW of academic and policy literature on preventive diplomacy and electoral violence ROADMAP

  • Coherent definition of terms
  • Literature Review
  • The Findings:

Issue Areas

  • Media
  • Constitution & Power-sharing
  • Prosecution of perpetrators
  • Incumbency & Postponement
  • Military Expenditure
slide-15
SLIDE 15

COHERENT DEFINITION OF TERMS

The period surrounding national elections is always a time of HEIGHTENED TENSION: ELECTORAL VIOLENCE exploits this tension with the purpose of influencing electoral outcomes.

  • This phenomenon differs from POLITICAL VIOLENCE in that it
  • ccurs only in the period immediately before, during and after

elections.

  • Certain conditions, or COMBUSTIBLES, create a favorable

environment for electoral violence as a means of achieving political goals.

  • PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY refers to the methods employed by

actors attempting to defuse the heightened tension before it is exploited.

slide-16
SLIDE 16

LITERATURE REVIEW

  • Sisk, Timothy. Elections in Fragile States: Between Voice

and Violence. 2008.

  • Bratic, Vladimir and Lisa Schrich. How and When to Use

the Media for Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding. 2007.

  • Ajayeoba, Ayodeji. Avoiding Electoral Violence: a

comparative overview. 2009.

  • Lijphart, Arend. Constitutional Design for Divided
  • Societies. 2004.
  • Snyder, Jack. From Voting to Violence: Democratization

and Nationalist Conflict. 2000.

slide-17
SLIDE 17

MEDIA

  • Seven Roles of Media
  • Electoral Violence and

Media intersect at:

– INFORMATION PROVIDER AND INTERPRETER – WATCHDOG – GATEKEEPER

  • ABCs of change
  • Destructive aspects:

– IMMEDIACY – DRAMA – SIMPLICITY – ETHNOCENTRISM

  • Positive Aspects:

– DEPICTING – SHARING – CONDEMNING

Relevant Case Studies: Burundi, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka Relevant Literature Reviews: GPAAC

slide-18
SLIDE 18

CONSTITUTION & POWER-SHARING

Relevant Case Studies: Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya Relevant Literature Reviews: Lijphart, Sisk

  • Implementation of EXISTING

CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS regarding election commissions, oversight and land issues

  • PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION,

parliaments, strong constitution writing, method of selection of the head of state, nonterritorial autonomy

  • Weak constitutions as a HAVEN FOR

DICTATORIAL POWERS

slide-19
SLIDE 19

PROSECUTION OF PERPETRATORS

  • Prosecution of perpetrators of electoral

violence domestically as a means of BUILDING CONFIDENCE in the government

  • Full COOPERATION with international

initiatives to prosecute perpetrators

  • ZERO TOLERANCE policy for violence

surrounding elections

Relevant Case Studies: Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Rwanda, Kenya, Burundi Relevant Literature Reviews: Snyder

slide-20
SLIDE 20

INCUMBENCY & POSTPONEMENT

INCUMBENCY

  • High PERSONAL

STAKE

  • Term allows DIVISION

to grow, deepen

  • Electoral Bodies often

seen as EXTENDED BRANCHES of Presidential powers POSTPONEMENT

  • Justified vs.

Manipulation

  • Both cases present more

time for FRUSTRATION

  • SUSPICION especially

if lack of confidence is already an issue

Relevant Case Studies: (Prev elect) Nigeria, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Kenya, (next elect) Burundi, Sierra Leone Relevant Literature Reviews: AAI, Sisk

slide-21
SLIDE 21

MILITARY EXPENDITURES

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Burundi US Kenya Sri Lanka

Military Expenditure of GDP

Military Expenditure of GDP

  • Army as an integral part to previous conflict,

MILITARY EXPENDITURES must be observed Relevant Case Studies: Burundi, Sierra Leone Relevant Literature Reviews: AAI, Snyder

slide-22
SLIDE 22

AFGHANISTAN ELECTIONS: LESSONS LEARNED & RECOMMENDATIONS FOR REFORM

By Anthony B. Lopez and Anna Novick Advisor: Ambassador Rafat Mahdi

slide-23
SLIDE 23

REFORM AREAS

  • Legislation
  • Administration
  • International Assistance
  • Security
  • Civic Education
slide-24
SLIDE 24

ELECTORAL LEGISLATION

  • Adapt the Single Non-

Transferable Voting (SNTV) system

  • Modify the electoral

calendar

  • Ensure independence and

impartiality of Electoral Complaints Commission

slide-25
SLIDE 25

ELECTION ADMINISTRATION

  • Create a sustainable voter

registry with photo IDs

  • Investigate and prosecute

malpractices

  • Consistently vet and train

staff

  • Increase recruitment of

female staff

slide-26
SLIDE 26

INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE

  • Increase coordination

between U.N. and partner

  • rganizations
  • Delegate responsibilities

based on organizational capacity

  • Prioritize skills transfer to

domestic organizations

slide-27
SLIDE 27

SECURITY

  • Ensure protection for

both voters and candidates

  • Mitigate voter

intimidation

  • Increase capacity of

domestic security forces

slide-28
SLIDE 28

CIVIC ENGAGEMENT

  • Educate citizens on

voting and election process

  • Emphasize female and

minority participation

  • Build a sustainable and

credible media commission

slide-29
SLIDE 29

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Ambassador Rafat Mahdi Mark Johnson UNDPA Eiko Ikegaya Vincent Pasquini Alexandra Sascha Pichler Andrew Bruce Isabelle De Ruyt