Unequality Peter Rupert Professor of Economics Chairman, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Unequality Peter Rupert Professor of Economics Chairman, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 27, 2022 129 likes •845 views

Unequality Peter Rupert Professor of Economics Chairman, Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project Associate Director, LAEF Economic Summit Cinco de Mayo, 2016 unequality | un equal i ty | \ @

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Unequality

Peter Rupert Professor of Economics Chairman, Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project Associate Director, LAEF Economic Summit Cinco de Mayo, 2016

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unequality

noun | un·equal·i·ty | \ @-ni-’kwä-l@-t¯ e\ 1 : the quality of being unequal or uneven 2 : the condition of being variable 3 : things that get affected differently by things

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big picture

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1929 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0

Real GDP

Logged Billions of 2009$, Seasonally Adjusted

Linear Trend

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FOMC, April 27 statement

removed global and financial concerns consumption spending has moderated painted a slightly weaker picture

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FOMC, April 27 statement

removed global and financial concerns consumption spending has moderated painted a slightly weaker picture result: no change in the federal funds rate

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1954 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 5 10 15

Source: FRB St. Louis

Effective Federal Funds Rate

Percent

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 2 3 4 5

Source: FRB St. Louis

Effective Federal Funds Rate

Percent

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2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 2013 2014 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15

Real GDP

Index, 2010=1, Quarterly, SA

US UK Germany France Japan Ireland Spain Italy Portugal Greece

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2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 2013 2014 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15

Real GDP

Index, 2010=1, Quarterly, SA

US

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data since the April 27 FOMC meeting

GDP: weak, 0.5% non-residential fixed investment: weak, -5.9% residential fixed investment: strong, 14.8% real personal income: strong-ish, 3.8%

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Percent −10 −5 5 2.9 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Real GDP

quarterly change at an annual rate year−over−year change 2016 Q3 annualized growth rate

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1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 −30 −20 −10 10 20

Non−residential Residential

Fixed investment

Percent change at annual rate

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2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 2013 2014 2016 −4 −2 2 4 6 Real Personal Income

Percent change from a year ago

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1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 −6 −4 −2 2 4

Real AHE using CPI Real AHE using PCE

Real Average Hourly Earnings

Percent change from a year ago, production and nonsupervisory workers

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 −2 2 4

CPI AHE

Inflation and Average Hourly Earnings

Percent change from a year ago, all private workers

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 4 6 8 10 12

Santa Barbara County [ 4.92% ] California [ 5.43% ] United States [ 4.93% ]

Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted

Percent (%)

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unequality

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breaking down national averages

unemployment earnings housing

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1969 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18

US California

Gini Coefficient

Real per capita personal income across counties

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Fresno Oakland Redding San Jose San Diego Sacramento Long Beach Santa Rosa Los Angeles Bakersfield San Francisco Santa Barbara

0.26–0.28 0.28–0.29 0.29–0.30 0.30–0.32 0.32–0.35 Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) California Regions

Estimated Gini Coefficient, 2015

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2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 −2 −1 1 2 3

Santa Barbara County California United States

Real Hourly Mean Wages, by Area

Annual Growth Rate (%)

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2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 −6 −4 −2 2 4 6 8

90th Percentile 75th Percentile 50th Percentile 25th Percentile 10th Percentile

Cumulative percent change in real hourly wages

United States

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2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 −5 5 10

90th Percentile 75th Percentile 50th Percentile 25th Percentile 10th Percentile

Cumulative percent change in real hourly wages

California

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2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 −4 −2 2 4 6 8

90th Percentile 75th Percentile 50th Percentile 25th Percentile 10th Percentile

Cumulative percent change in real hourly wages

Santa Barbara County

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minimum wages

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a looming labor market issue

current minimum wage $10 $15 minimum wage by 2022 let’s start by examining the data

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1947 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 5 10 15

California Federal

Nominal Minimum Wage

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1947 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 4 6 8 10 12

California Federal

Real Minimum Wage

(2009 dollars)

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1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2 4 6 8 10 12 Wage & Salary @ Fed Min

Percent of Workers at Minimum Wage

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1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2 4 6 8 10 12 Wage & Salary @ Fed Min Wage @ Fed Min

Percent of Workers at Minimum Wage

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1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2 4 6 8 10 12 Wage & Salary @ Fed Min Wage @ Fed Min Wage & Salary @ Binding Min

Percent of Workers at Minimum Wage

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1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2 4 6 8 10 12 Wage & Salary @ Fed Min Wage @ Binding Min

Percent of Workers at Minimum Wage

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1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2 4 6 8 10 12 US: Wage @ Binding Min CA: Wage @ Binding Min

Percent of Workers at Minimum Wage

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Fresno Oakland Redding San Jose San Diego Sacramento Long Beach Santa Rosa Los Angeles Bakersfield San Francisco Santa Barbara

6.74%–15% 15%–20% 20%–25% 25%–30% 30%–39.80% Occupational Employment Statistical Regions

Estimated Share of Employment at

  • r Below $10.50 per hour, 2015
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4.9 % 65 % 17.8 % 3.2 % 9.1 %

Management/Professional Service Occupations Sales Natural Resources/Construction/Maintenance Transportation

Percent Making Minimum Wage by Occupation

United States, 2015

Source: BLS

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Government Leisure & Hospitality

  • Educ. & Health Services
  • Prof. & Bus. Services

Goods Producing Total Farm Retail Trade Financial Activites Other Services Wholesale Trade Trans., Ware. & Util.* Information

16.9 13.6 13 11.4 11.2 10.7 9.9 3.3 3 2.5 2.3 2.2

−5 5 10 15 25 50 75 100 Percent of Total Employment, 2015 2014−2015 Growth Rate (%)

Employment by Industry Santa Barbara County

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housing

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Santa Barbara, CA [ $ 554,100 ] California [ $ 462,100 ] United States [ $ 186,200 ]

Zillow Home Value Index

Index (100 = Pre−Recession Maximum Value)

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 −20 −10 10 20

Santa Barbara, CA [ 3.86 % ] California [ 6.3 % ] United States [ 4.84 % ]

Zillow Home Value Index

YoY Growth Rate (%)

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 60 80 100 120

Santa Barbara [ 874 ] California [ 70,713 ] United States [ 1,436,856 ]

For−Sale Inventories, Seasonally Adjusted

Index (Jan 2010 = 100)

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1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 40 60 80 100

San Francisco, CA[ $806,600 ] Los Angeles, CA[ $565,400 ] San Diego, CA[ $506,100 ] Santa Barbara, CA[ $554,100 ] Sacramento, CA[ $339,700 ] Riverside, CA[ $304,200 ] California [ $462,100 ]

Zillow Home Value Index, by MSA

Index (100 = Pre−Recession Max Value)

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2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2016 20 40 60 80 100

Santa Barbara[ $1,076,600] Carpinteria[ $839,000] Montecito[ $3,131,500] Goleta[ $768,800] Buellton[ $510,800] Santa Maria[ $334,300] Lompoc[ $287,100] Guadalupe[ $238,700]

Zillow Home Value Index

Index (100 = Pre−Recession Max Value)

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2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2016 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Santa Barbara City [ $1,076,600 ] Oak Park[ $785,000 ] Westside[ $752,100 ] Eastside[ $895,400 ] Laguna[ $989,900 ] Upper East[ $1,449,300 ]

Zillow Home Value Index: Downtown

Index (100 = Pre−Recession Max Value)

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2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2016 40 60 80 100 120

Santa Barbara City [ $1,076,600 ] Alta Mesa[ $1,162,800 ] East Mesa[ $1,413,200 ] West Mesa[ $1,214,600 ] Hope[ $926,900 ]

Zillow Home Value Index: Coastal

Index (100 = Pre−Recession Max Value)

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2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2016 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Santa Barbara City [ $1,076,600 ] Samarkand[ $970,000 ] Bel Air[ $1,211,800 ] Hitchcock[ $837,400 ] Hidden Valley[ $882,700 ]

Zillow Home Value Index: Other

Index (100 = Pre−Recession Max Value)

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2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2016 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Santa Barbara City [ $1,076,600 ] Cielito[ $1,906,900 ] Eucalyptus Hill[ $1,784,600 ] Riviera[ $2,061,800 ] Lower Riviera[ $1,387,300 ] San Roque[ $1,119,400 ] East San Roque[ $952,900 ]

Zillow Home Value Index: Riviera

Index (100 = Pre−Recession Max Value)

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94% 94% 97% 98% 93% 100% 99% 94% 98% 96% 1 2 3 4 5 Hope Ranch Montecito SB/East of State Carpinteria−Summerland SB/West of State Santa Ynez SB/ Gol North SB/Gol South Lompoc Santa Maria

List Price (Millions) Sales Price as Percent of List Price

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affordable housing and Section 8

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20 40

Kings County San Bernardino Kern (Bakersfield) Merced Madera Fresno Tulare Stanislaus Placer County Solano Sacramento San Joaquin Riverside County Contra−Costa Los Angeles Ventura San Luis Obispo Sonoma San Diego Napa Monterey Orange County Alameda Santa Barbara Santa Clara Marin Santa Cruz San Mateo San Francisco

CA Average: 31% US Average: 57%

Affordability 2016Q2

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Santa Barbara Santa Maria Lompoc Goleta Solvang Carpinteria Buellton Guadalupe 93252 93454 93436 93117 93254 93460 93455 93105 93013 93427 93441 93440 93437 93434 93458 93463 93105 93108 93067 93110 93111 93429 93109 93101 93463 93103

SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY VENTURA COUNTY KERN COUNTY

10 miles 10 kilometers

N

Number of Property Addresses with Restrictive Covenants

1 address 10 100

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rental comparison

rent per square foot

Type County South North S/C S/N 1 br 2.22 2.83 1.76 1.27 1.60 2 br 1.97 2.28 1.56 1.16 1.47 All 2.10 2.53 1.68 1.21 1.51

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rental comparison

rent per square foot

Type County South North S/C S/N 1 br 2.22 2.83 1.76 1.27 1.60 2 br 1.97 2.28 1.56 1.16 1.47 All 2.10 2.53 1.68 1.21 1.51

HUD response: increase south county subsidy by 41%

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final thoughts

Santa Barbara employment strong wages are up housing market has stabilized

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final thoughts

Santa Barbara employment strong wages are up housing market has stabilized fed funds future??? ask Jim!

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final thoughts

Santa Barbara employment strong wages are up housing market has stabilized unequality is a constant reality

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thank you

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