TYLER LER IS ISD AUGUST 2 2019
Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris Pool President Data Manager Grant Guseman Demographer Matthew Vatthauer GIS Analyst WHO W O WE E ARE Large D La Demograph phic F Firm Lo Located i d in Co College St Station, TX TX ► 39+ Y 39+ Year H History ► Clients a are a almost E Exclu lusiv ively ly S School D l Distric icts ► Over 1 100 Years Co Combi bined D d Demographic E Expe perience ►
Economic D Data Housing ing P Proje jectio ions Employment Projections • Recent Employment Trends for • District Ten-Year Projections for • Single-Family and Multi- Family Developments Projections for Vacant • Parcels Current nt S Student nts WHAT W WE E D DO Geocode population • Count by grade and/or special • population Mapping ing Aerial Imagery • Existing and Future • Residential Development Long ng R Range P Planni nning ng Factors Affecting or • Limiting Development Attendance Zone Projections • Site Selection • Long Range Facilities Plan •
Annual Population Change Smith County 5,000 4,470 4,500 4,000 3,170 2,761 3,076 3,500 POPULATION CHANGE 2,172 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YEAR Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Change Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Change
Total School District Enrollment Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Enrollment 1 Tyl yler I ISD 18,130 2 Hallsville ISD* 9,486 3 Longview ISD 8,621 4 Marshall ISD 5,341 5 Jacksonville ISD 4,857 6 Whitehouse ISD 4,831 7 Pine Tree ISD 4,500 8 Lindale ISD 4,115 9 Kilgore ISD 4,086 10 Mabank ISD 3,566 11 Chapel Hill ISD (Smith) 3,536 12 Henderson ISD 3,417 13 Athens ISD 3,011 14 Brownsboro ISD 2,734 15 Bullard ISD 2,587 Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018
Numeric Change in Enrollment Fall 2017 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 4,409 2 Tyl yler I ISD 127 127 3 Wills Point ISD 105 4 Whitehouse ISD 93 5 Mabank ISD 53 6 Spring Hill ISD 53 7 Gilmer ISD 52 8 Longview ISD 50 9 Lindale ISD 40 10 Elysian Fields ISD 31 11 Hawkins ISD 29 12 Bullard ISD 27 13 Winona ISD 24 14 Mineola ISD 23 15 Sabine ISD 22 Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018
Percent Change in Enrollment Fall 2017 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 86.8% 2 Murchison ISD 8.4% 3 Wills Point ISD 4.3% 4 Hawkins ISD 4.2% 5 Wells ISD 4.2% 6 Lapoynor ISD 3.8% 7 Elysian Fields ISD 3.5% 8 Spring Hill ISD 2.7% 9 Cross Roads ISD 2.4% 10 Winona ISD 2.2% 11 Gilmer ISD 2.1% 12 Harmony ISD 2.0% 13 Grand Saline ISD 2.0% 14 Whitehouse ISD 2.0% 29 Tyl yler I ISD 0.7% Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018
Numeric Change in Enrollment Fall 2013 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 4,726 2 Lindale ISD 292 3 Bullard ISD 274 4 Whitehouse ISD 245 5 Mabank ISD 172 6 Spring Hill ISD 159 7 Sabine ISD 135 8 New Diana ISD 126 9 Ore City ISD 113 10 Canton ISD 108 11 Malakoff ISD 105 12 12 Tyl yler I ISD 101 101 13 Eustace ISD 98 14 Van ISD 97 15 White Oak ISD 81 Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018
Percent Change in Enrollment Fall 2013 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 99.3% 2 Ore City ISD 13.4% 3 Mount Enterprise ISD 13.1% 4 New Diana ISD 12.7% 5 Bullard ISD 11.8% 6 Sabine ISD 9.9% 7 Union Hill ISD 9.9% 8 Spring Hill ISD 8.5% 9 Malakoff ISD 8.2% 10 Lindale ISD 7.6% 11 Winona ISD 7.5% 12 Edgewood ISD 7.0% 13 Martins Mill ISD 6.9% 14 Alba-Golden ISD 6.8% 35 Tyl yler I ISD 0.6% Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018
Percent Economically Disadvantaged Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Econ. Dis. 1 Karnack ISD 2.4% 2 Bullard ISD 33.9% 3 Canton ISD 38.8% 4 White Oak ISD 39.0% 5 Hallsville ISD 39.5% 6 New Diana ISD 42.8% 7 Lindale ISD 44.3% 8 Harleton ISD 45.1% 9 Whitehouse ISD 45.4% 10 Spring Hill ISD 45.5% 11 Union Grove ISD 46.7% 12 Martins Mill ISD 47.0% 13 Sabine ISD 48.6% 14 Harmony ISD 48.9% 55 Tyl yler I ISD 75.0% 0% Source: Texas Education Agency
2017 17 Demo mogr graphi hic c Upd Update
-300 -200 -10 Total Student Gain or Loss 300 200 10 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 100 0 199 1991-92 92 1992 1992-93 93 1993-94 1993 94 1994 1994-95 95 1995 1995-96 96 1996 1996-97 97 199 1997-98 98 1998 1998-99 99 1999 1999-00 00 2000 2000-01 01 200 2001-02 02 2002-03 2002 03 2003 2003-04 04 2004 2004-05 05 2005 2005-06 06 2006 2006-07 07 200 2007-08 08 2008 2008-09 09 2009 2009-10 10 201 010-11 11 20 2011 11-12 12 201 012-13 13 201 013-14 14 201 014-15 15 20 2015 15-16 16 201 016-17 17 2017 17-18 18 201 018-19 19
Demographic Characteristics 35.7 Population Median Age 18% Ages 5–17 State of Texas 34.7 State of Texas 19% Mean Travel $51,426 Median 21.1 Time to Work Household State of Texas $59,206 Income State of Texas 26.5 minutes 66.9% Bachelor’s Degree STAAR Passage Rate 25% State of Texas 73.1% State of Texas 30% 75.0% Economically Disadvantaged Student Population State of Texas 60.6% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimate; Texas Education Agency
Kindergarten vs. Births Bi Births (Adj djusted F ed Five Y e Yea ears) Kinder Ki dergarten en E Enrollmen ment 2,200 2,2 00 2,000 2,0 00 1,8 1,800 00 STUDENTS 1,6 1,600 00 1,400 1,4 00 1,200 1,2 00 1,000 1,0 00 SCHOOL YEAR Sources: Texas Department of State Health Services; Texas Education Agency
PK-12 Enrollment Share Tyler I.S.D. Residents R Resident S Students: 21,885 Attending T.I.S.D. 18,130 Transfers into the District 214 Attending and Residing in T.I.S.D. 17,916 (81.9%) Attending Charter Schools 1 2,029 (9.3%) Attending Private Schools 2 1,491 (6.8%) Attending Nearby Districts 1 449 (2.1%) 1 Source: Texas Education Agency, Transfer Reports 2018-19 2 Source: PASA interviews
CHARTER SCHOOLS
Projected Katy I.S.D. Students Demographics 2017 17 Students Demo mogr graphi hi Employ- per c Upd Update ment Home Housing
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Tyler Metro, Seasonally Adjusted Six-Month Change in Employment Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Employment Change (Non-Farm) Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 MONTH Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Source: Texas Workforce Commission Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19
Employment by Sector District Residents in the Workforce, 2017 Estimate Public Resource Other Construction Admin. Collection Services 8% 3% 2% 6% Entertainment & Manufacturing Food Service 8% 11% Wholesale Trade 2% Education & Retail Trade Healthcare 15% 26% Resource Distribution 4% Information Finance & Professional & 3% Real Estate Administrative 4% 8% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
Ma May 2019 U 2019 Une nemploymen ent o of 2. 2.8% 8% i in T n Tyler er Distribu bution on a and nd F Food Pr Proces cessing GG D Distr tributi tion – 180 j 180 job obs John ohn Sou oules F Food oods e expansion San Sanderson F Far arms Re Rece cently op opened a and ha have 1, 1,000 000 w wor orkers 500 500 additional j job obs e expected by late 2019 2019 Most workers l liv ive in in Tyler
Med Medica cal a and nd H Hea ealthca care Larges est empl employers in Smi mith C County UT UT H Health h East T TX X – 4, 4,439 439 CHR HRIST STUS T S Trin init ity M Mother Fran ances - 4, 4,095 095 Freseniu ius Medic ical C Car are o opened in in 2018 nea early 3 300 empl employees w with pl plans for expand anding ing a and a adding ng 2 200 more positio ions ns Centen tene C e Corp. p. 50,000 50, 000-sq. ft ft. fa faci cility (op (opened 2013) 2013) Site p pro rocesse sses M s Medicaid/Me Medicare re cla laims s and ser erves 1 19 states; ex expa pansion ex expe pected
Housing Projections Methodology ► Analysis by Planning Unit
Housing Projections Methodology ► New Housing Plans by City ► Special Districts (Utilties)
Housing Projections Methodology ► Land Ownership Changes ► (2016 to Present) ► Land for Sale (May 2019)
Rose se Cit City y Munic icipal Ut Util ility Dist istrict Approved by Texas Legislature in 2019 Overlay district in south T.I.S.D. Bonds would be issued to provide utilities Competition with current private utility provider Development likely to increase Cou ounty R Roa oad 1 168 Rehabilitation on Toll 49 49 Ex Extens ension on ea east o of T.I.S.D.
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