TYLER LER IS ISD AUGUST 2 2019 Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris Pool - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TYLER LER IS ISD AUGUST 2 2019 Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris Pool - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TYLER LER IS ISD AUGUST 2 2019 Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris Pool President Data Manager Grant Guseman Demographer Matthew Vatthauer GIS Analyst WHO W O WE E ARE Large D La Demograph phic F Firm Lo Located i d in Co College St

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SLIDE 1

TYLER LER IS ISD

AUGUST 2 2019

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SLIDE 2

►

La Large D Demograph phic F Firm Lo Located i d in Co College St Station, TX TX

►

39+ Y 39+ Year H History

►

Clients a are a almost E Exclu lusiv ively ly S School D l Distric icts

►

Over 1 100 Years Co Combi bined D d Demographic E Expe perience

WHO W O WE E ARE

Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. President Kris Pool Data Manager Grant Guseman Demographer Matthew Vatthauer GIS Analyst

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SLIDE 3

Economic D Data

  • Employment Projections
  • Recent Employment Trends for

District

Current nt S Student nts

  • Geocode population
  • Count by grade and/or special

population

Long ng R Range P Planni nning ng

  • Attendance Zone Projections
  • Site Selection
  • Long Range Facilities Plan

WHAT W WE E D DO

Housing ing P Proje jectio ions

  • Ten-Year Projections for

Single-Family and Multi- Family Developments

  • Projections for Vacant

Parcels

Mapping ing

  • Aerial Imagery
  • Existing and Future

Residential Development

  • Factors Affecting or

Limiting Development

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SLIDE 4

Annual Population Change

Smith County

3,076 4,470 3,170 2,172 2,761

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

POPULATION CHANGE YEAR

Population Change Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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SLIDE 5

Total School District Enrollment

Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

0 School District Enrollment

1 Tyl yler I ISD 18,130

2 Hallsville ISD* 9,486 3 Longview ISD 8,621 4 Marshall ISD 5,341 5 Jacksonville ISD 4,857 6 Whitehouse ISD 4,831 7 Pine Tree ISD 4,500 8 Lindale ISD 4,115 9 Kilgore ISD 4,086 10 Mabank ISD 3,566 11 Chapel Hill ISD (Smith) 3,536 12 Henderson ISD 3,417 13 Athens ISD 3,011 14 Brownsboro ISD 2,734 15 Bullard ISD 2,587

Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

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SLIDE 6

Numeric Change in Enrollment

Fall 2017 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

0 School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 4,409

2 Tyl yler I ISD 127 127

3 Wills Point ISD 105 4 Whitehouse ISD 93 5 Mabank ISD 53 6 Spring Hill ISD 53 7 Gilmer ISD 52 8 Longview ISD 50 9 Lindale ISD 40 10 Elysian Fields ISD 31 11 Hawkins ISD 29 12 Bullard ISD 27 13 Winona ISD 24 14 Mineola ISD 23 15 Sabine ISD 22

Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

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SLIDE 7

Percent Change in Enrollment

Fall 2017 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 86.8% 2 Murchison ISD 8.4% 3 Wills Point ISD 4.3% 4 Hawkins ISD 4.2% 5 Wells ISD 4.2% 6 Lapoynor ISD 3.8% 7 Elysian Fields ISD 3.5% 8 Spring Hill ISD 2.7% 9 Cross Roads ISD 2.4% 10 Winona ISD 2.2% 11 Gilmer ISD 2.1% 12 Harmony ISD 2.0% 13 Grand Saline ISD 2.0% 14 Whitehouse ISD 2.0%

29 Tyl yler I ISD 0.7%

Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

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SLIDE 8

Numeric Change in Enrollment

Fall 2013 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 4,726 2 Lindale ISD 292 3 Bullard ISD 274 4 Whitehouse ISD 245 5 Mabank ISD 172 6 Spring Hill ISD 159 7 Sabine ISD 135 8 New Diana ISD 126 9 Ore City ISD 113 10 Canton ISD 108 11 Malakoff ISD 105

12 12 Tyl yler I ISD 101 101

13 Eustace ISD 98 14 Van ISD 97 15 White Oak ISD 81

Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

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SLIDE 9

Percent Change in Enrollment

Fall 2013 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 99.3% 2 Ore City ISD 13.4% 3 Mount Enterprise ISD 13.1% 4 New Diana ISD 12.7% 5 Bullard ISD 11.8% 6 Sabine ISD 9.9% 7 Union Hill ISD 9.9% 8 Spring Hill ISD 8.5% 9 Malakoff ISD 8.2% 10 Lindale ISD 7.6% 11 Winona ISD 7.5% 12 Edgewood ISD 7.0% 13 Martins Mill ISD 6.9% 14 Alba-Golden ISD 6.8%

35 Tyl yler I ISD 0.6%

Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

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SLIDE 10

Percent Economically Disadvantaged

Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

School District

  • Econ. Dis.

1 Karnack ISD 2.4% 2 Bullard ISD 33.9% 3 Canton ISD 38.8% 4 White Oak ISD 39.0% 5 Hallsville ISD 39.5% 6 New Diana ISD 42.8% 7 Lindale ISD 44.3% 8 Harleton ISD 45.1% 9 Whitehouse ISD 45.4% 10 Spring Hill ISD 45.5% 11 Union Grove ISD 46.7% 12 Martins Mill ISD 47.0% 13 Sabine ISD 48.6% 14 Harmony ISD 48.9%

55 Tyl yler I ISD 75.0% 0%

Source: Texas Education Agency

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SLIDE 11

2017 17 Demo mogr graphi hic c Upd Update

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SLIDE 12

Total Student Gain or Loss

  • 300

300

  • 200

200

  • 10

100 10 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 199 1991-92 92 1992 1992-93 93 1993 1993-94 94 1994 1994-95 95 1995 1995-96 96 1996 1996-97 97 199 1997-98 98 1998 1998-99 99 1999 1999-00 00 2000 2000-01 01 200 2001-02 02 2002 2002-03 03 2003 2003-04 04 2004 2004-05 05 2005 2005-06 06 2006 2006-07 07 200 2007-08 08 2008 2008-09 09 2009 2009-10 10 201 010-11 11 20 2011 11-12 12 201 012-13 13 201 013-14 14 201 014-15 15 20 2015 15-16 16 201 016-17 17 2017 17-18 18 201 018-19 19

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SLIDE 13

35.7

Median Age

State of Texas 34.7

75.0%

Economically Disadvantaged Student Population

State of Texas 60.6%

Median Household Income

$51,426

State of Texas $59,206

18%

Population Ages 5–17

State of Texas 19%

21.1

Mean Travel Time to Work

State of Texas 26.5 minutes

STAAR Passage Rate

State of Texas 73.1%

66.9% 25%

State of Texas 30%

Demographic Characteristics

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimate; Texas Education Agency

Bachelor’s Degree

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SLIDE 14

Kindergarten vs. Births

Sources: Texas Department of State Health Services; Texas Education Agency

1,0 1,000 00 1,2 1,200 00 1,4 1,400 00 1,6 1,600 00 1,8 1,800 00 2,0 2,000 00 2,2 2,200 00

STUDENTS SCHOOL YEAR

Bi Births (Adj djusted F ed Five Y e Yea ears) Ki Kinder dergarten en E Enrollmen ment

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SLIDE 15

PK-12 Enrollment Share

Tyler I.S.D. Residents

R Resident S Students: 21,885 Attending T.I.S.D. 18,130 Transfers into the District 214 Attending and Residing in T.I.S.D. 17,916

(81.9%)

Attending Charter Schools1 2,029

(9.3%)

Attending Private Schools2 1,491

(6.8%)

Attending Nearby Districts1 449

(2.1%)

2 Source: PASA interviews 1 Source: Texas Education Agency, Transfer Reports 2018-19

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SLIDE 16

CHARTER SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 17

2017 17 Demo mogr graphi hi c Upd Update

Katy I.S.D.

Demographics

Employ- ment Housing Students per Home Projected Students

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SLIDE 18

Six-Month Change in Employment

Tyler Metro, Seasonally Adjusted

  • 2.0%
  • 1.5%
  • 1.0%
  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 EMPLOYMENT CHANGE MONTH

Employment Change (Non-Farm)

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

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SLIDE 19

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Employment by Sector

District Residents in the Workforce, 2017 Estimate

Resource Collection 2% Construction 8% Manufacturing 8% Wholesale Trade 2% Retail Trade 15% Resource Distribution 4% Information 3% Finance & Real Estate 4% Professional & Administrative 8% Education & Healthcare 26% Entertainment & Food Service 11% Other Services 6% Public Admin. 3%

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SLIDE 20
  • Ma

May 2019 U 2019 Une nemploymen ent o

  • f 2.

2.8% 8% i in T n Tyler er

  • Distribu

bution

  • n a

and nd F Food Pr Proces cessing

  • GG D

Distr tributi tion – 180 j 180 job

  • bs
  • John
  • hn Sou
  • ules F

Food

  • ods e

expansion

  • San

Sanderson F Far arms

  • Re

Rece cently op

  • pened a

and ha have 1, 1,000 000 w wor

  • rkers
  • 500

500 additional j job

  • bs e

expected by late 2019 2019

  • Most workers l

liv ive in in Tyler

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SLIDE 21
  • Med

Medica cal a and nd H Hea ealthca care

  • Larges

est empl employers in Smi mith C County

  • UT

UT H Health h East T TX X – 4, 4,439 439

  • CHR

HRIST STUS T S Trin init ity M Mother Fran ances - 4, 4,095 095

  • Freseniu

ius Medic ical C Car are o

  • pened in

in 2018

  • nea

early 3 300 empl employees w with pl plans for expand anding ing a and a adding ng 2 200 more positio ions ns

  • Centen

tene C e Corp. p.

  • 50,

50,000 000-sq. ft

  • ft. fa

faci cility (op (opened 2013) 2013)

  • Site p

pro rocesse sses M s Medicaid/Me Medicare re cla laims s and ser erves 1 19 states; ex expa pansion ex expe pected

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SLIDE 22
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SLIDE 23

Housing Projections Methodology

► Analysis by Planning Unit

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SLIDE 24

► New Housing Plans by City ► Special Districts (Utilties)

Housing Projections Methodology

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SLIDE 25

► Land Ownership Changes ► (2016 to Present) ► Land for Sale (May 2019)

Housing Projections Methodology

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SLIDE 26
  • Rose

se Cit City y Munic icipal Ut Util ility Dist istrict

  • Approved by Texas Legislature in 2019
  • Overlay district in south T.I.S.D.
  • Bonds would be issued to provide utilities
  • Competition with current private utility provider
  • Development likely to increase
  • Cou
  • unty R

Roa

  • ad 1

168 Rehabilitation

  • n
  • Toll 49

49 Ex Extens ension

  • n ea

east o

  • f T.I.S.D.
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SLIDE 27

► Old Jack

ckson

  • nville (

e (FM M 2493) 2493) C Corridor

►

Oak Creek: 36 now occupied; near build out by 2023

►

Oak Springs: recently planned for ~200 lots on ~100 acres just south of The Crossing

►

Genecov/W. Cumberland Tract: both owners recently received zoning approval for SF/THs; 440-ac. tract;

► Lindsey C

Crossing: 150 l 150 lots total a along ng G Greenbr eenbriar

► Cum

umber berland Pa Park W Wes est: mixed ed us use e (86 86 acr cres es) approv

  • ved

ed by by City o

  • f Tyler

er; MF MF ex expect ected ed long ng-term

► No

North T T.I.S.D: sca catter ered ed l large-lot devel evelopmen ent

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SLIDE 28

Projected New Housing Occupancies

2019–2023 SHORT-TERM

Lindsey Crossing Cascades Oak Creek Cumberland Gap Genecov/West Cumberland (440 ac.) Whitetail Hollow The Crossing

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SLIDE 29

Projected New Housing Occupancies

2019–2028 10-YEAR

Lindsey Crossing “Bellwood Tract” Oak Springs Rose City MUD vicinity Genecov/West Cumberland (440 ac.) Northchase

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SLIDE 30

Projected New Housing Occupancies

2019–2028 10-YEAR

Lower/Later Impact Greater/Sooner Impact Cumberland Park West Mixed Use Auberge of Tyler

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SLIDE 31

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Single-Family Multi-Family Mixed Use Senior Manufactured

2,037 789 153 298 61 2,903 1,824 660 66 157

2019-2023 2023-2028

4,940 40 2,613 13 813 364 218

8, 8,948 948

M Mixed ed U Use e

T Tot

  • tal

S Sin ingle-Famil ily H Housin ing M Multi- i-Famil ily H Housin ing S Senio ior M Manufacture red

Projected New Housing Occupancies

2019–2028

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SLIDE 32
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SLIDE 33

Students per Occupied Home

Districtwide

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SLIDE 34

Katy I.S.D.

Demographics

Employ- ment

Housing Students per Home Projected Students

2017 2017 Demo Demographic Updat ate

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SLIDE 35

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Enro rollme ment

18,28 287 18,45 459 18,54 546 18,59 596 18,61 619

% G Growt wth 0.87% 0.94% 0.47% 0.27% 0.12% Growt wth 157 172 87 50 23 2024.00 2025.00 2026.00 2027.00 2028.00

Enro rollme ment

18,65 653 18,63 639 18,66 666 18,76 764 18,89 890

% G Growt wth 0.18%

  • 0.08%

0.14% 0.53% 0.67% Growt wth 34

  • 14

27 98 126

Moderate Growth Scenario

Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot Date

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SLIDE 36

Three Scenarios of Growth

18, 18,890 890 18, 18,130 130 18, 18,619 19

18,147 18,723 17,986 19,195 17,500 17,750 18,000 18,250 18,500 18,750 19,000 19,250 19,500

2016 2018 2023 2028 Enrollment Year

Low/High Range Actual Projected

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SLIDE 37

Katy I.S.D.

Demographics

Employ- ment

Housing Students per Home Projected Students

2017 2017 Demo Demographic Updat ate

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SLIDE 38

Projected Elementary Student Growth

2018-19 to 2028-29

Cumberland Park West Mixed Use Auberge of Tyler Lindsey Crossing Cascades Oak Creek Whitetail Hollow The Crossing “Bellwood Tract” Oak Springs Northchase Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 39

Projected Elementary Student Growth

2018-19 to 2028-29

Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 40

Projected Elementary Student Growth

2018-19 to 2028-29

Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 41

Percent Utilization 2018-19

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 42

Percent Utilization 2028-29

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 43

Curre rrent 2019- 2019-20 20 2020- 2020-21 21 2021- 2021-22 22 2022- 2022-23 23 2023- 2023-24 24 2024- 2024-25 25 2025- 2025-26 26 2026- 2026-27 27 2027- 2027-28 28 2028- 2028-29 29

Austin 397 397 391 391 392 392 403 403 399 399 406 406 401 401 394 394 387 387 382 382 376 376 Bell ll 382 382 379 379 373 373 348 348 348 348 331 331 332 332 328 328 323 323 323 323 319 319 Bir irdwell ll 357 357 345 345 334 334 321 321 312 312 302 302 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 Bonner 467 467 481 481 487 487 491 491 499 499 494 494 493 493 489 489 486 486 482 482 477 477 Clarkston 482 482 493 493 513 513 517 517 502 502 513 513 505 505 501 501 498 498 495 495 489 489 Dix ixie ie 668 668 690 690 733 733 755 755 777 777 799 799 805 805 807 807 809 809 813 813 817 817 Doug uglas 589 589 623 623 625 625 641 641 643 643 648 648 644 644 638 638 632 632 628 628 621 621 Grif iffin in 760 760 802 802 823 823 816 816 815 815 818 818 824 824 827 827 831 831 839 839 839 839 Jack 711 711 724 724 733 733 764 764 778 778 812 812 846 846 874 874 906 906 946 946 988 988 Jones 394 394 390 390 403 403 410 410 427 427 455 455 466 466 477 477 492 492 512 512 530 530 Orr rr 837 837 845 845 868 868 880 880 873 873 857 857 865 865 868 868 871 871 877 877 879 879 Owens 726 726 716 716 720 720 713 713 715 715 721 721 719 719 719 719 720 720 723 723 729 729 Peet eete 459 459 478 478 494 494 504 504 493 493 495 495 493 493 492 492 490 490 491 491 489 489 Ramey 640 640 654 654 667 667 647 647 652 652 675 675 681 681 686 686 686 686 689 689 687 687 Ric ice 676 676 660 660 644 644 631 631 628 628 655 655 658 658 662 662 666 666 672 672 676 676 Woods 646 646 671 671 697 697 726 726 778 778 801 801 796 796 794 794 792 792 793 793 790 790

> 9 90% 0% c capa pacity > 1 100 00% c capa pacity > 1 110 10% c capa pacity

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SLIDE 44

Percent Utilization 2028-29

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Proposed Long-Range Plan:

Build New Elementary in West

**Planning Document Only: Board of Trustees has made no decisions regarding new schools, sites, or attendance zones.

Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 45

Projected Middle School Student Growth

2018-19 to 2028-29

Middle School Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 46

Percent Utilization 2018-19

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Middle School Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 47

Percent Utilization 2028-29

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Middle School Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 48

Curre rrent 2019- 2019-20 20 2020- 2020-21 21 2021- 2021-22 22 2022- 2022-23 23 2023- 2023-24 24 2024- 2024-25 25 2025- 2025-26 26 2026- 2026-27 27 2027- 2027-28 28 2028- 2028-29 29

Boulte ter

1,037 37 1,022 22 1,009 09 965 927 935 938 958 978 974 978

Ho Hogg

437 477 516 486 445 438 425 420 408 410 409

Hubbard

786 794 805 785 775 706 722 740 803 800 796

Moore

921 898 839 835 839 835 827 835 832 820 819

Three L ee Lakes es

935 916 924 914 913 881 901 910 965 982 1,008 08 > 9 90% 0% c capa pacity > 1 100 00% c capa pacity > 1 110 10% c capa pacity

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SLIDE 49

Percent Utilization 2028-29

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Proposed Long-Range Plan:

Build New MS in West and Repurpose Hogg

**Planning Document Only: Board of Trustees has made no decisions regarding new schools, sites, or attendance zones.

Middle School Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 50

High School Long-Range Planning

Percent Utilization 2018 – 2029

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

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SLIDE 51

► New

New El Elem ement entary on

  • n Wes

est S Side

► New

New Mi Middle S Sch chool o

  • n

n Wes est S Side

► Rep

Repur urpose Hogg MS MS

► Timing d

dependent o

  • n loc

local l tole

  • lerance of
  • f
  • ver

ercr crowding, p programmatic d deci ecisions, et etc. c.

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SLIDE 52

Katy I.S.D.

Demographics

Employ- ment

Housing Students per Home Projected Students

2017 2017 Demo Demographic Updat ate

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SLIDE 53

TYLER LER IS ISD

AUGUST 2 2019