KA KATY ISD Y ISD Dem Demog ographi raphic c Upd pdat ate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

KA KATY ISD Y ISD Dem Demog

• graphi

raphic c Upd pdat ate

Dec ecem ember ber 20 2019

Numeric Change in Enrollment

Fall 2013 to Fall 2018, Houston Metro

Source: Texas Education Agency

MONTGOMERY FORT BEND GALVESTON BRAZORIA WALLER HARRIS

Numeric Percent

1 HALLSVILLE ISD 5,077 9,486

4,409

86.8%

2 KATY ISD 77,522 79,913

2,391

3.1%

3 PROSPER ISD 12,133 14,348

2,215

18.3% 4 FRISCO ISD 58,450 60,182

1,732

3.0% 5 ROUND ROCK ISD 49,086 50,387

1,301

2.7% 6 LAMAR CISD 32,146 33,444

1,298

4.0% 7 CONROE ISD 61,580 62,837

1,257

2.0% 8 HUMBLE ISD 42,391 43,553

1,162

2.7% 9 ALVIN ISD 24,852 25,945

1,093

4.4% 10 TOMBALL ISD 15,933 16,962

1,029

6.5% 11 CLEVELAND ISD 5,574 6,584

1,010

18.1% 12 LEANDER ISD 39,028 40,031

1,003

2.6% 13 ECTOR COUNTY ISD 32,267 33,268

1,001

3.1% 14 NORTHWEST ISD 23,141 24,141

1,000

4.3% 15 FORNEY ISD 10,196 11,133

937

9.2%

Rank District Name Enrollment 2017-18 Enrollment 2018-19 Growth

Fastest Growth School Districts in Texas

2017-18 to 2018-19 Numeric Gain in Students

Source: Texas Education Agency

2017 17 Demog mographic raphic Update date

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Added Students by Grade Group

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Elem Int HS

Annual Growth Rates

4.2% 2.9% 2.6% 3.4% 4.1% 4.6% 3.7% 3.4% 2.8% 3.1% 4.4% 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Enrollment

District Name 1 FRISCO ISD 7,543 60,182 12.5% 2 LEANDER ISD 8,116 40,031 20.3% 3 KELLER ISD 9,725 35,088 27.7% 4 ROUND ROCK ISD 13,993 50,387 27.8% 5 CLEAR CREEK ISD 12,112 42,205 28.7%

6 KATY ISD 25,168 79,913 31.5%

7 PLANO ISD 16,847 53,057 31.8% 8 LEWISVILLE ISD 18,155 52,218 34.8% 9 HUMBLE ISD 16,510 43,553 37.9% 10 10 CONROE ISD 25,396 62,837 40.4% State of Texas: 60.6% Disadvantaged Students Total Enrollment Percent of Enrollment

Percent Economically Disadvantaged

Texas School Districts with 30,000+ Students, 2018-19

2018-19 2017-18 2016-17 2015-16

1 FRISCO ISD 60,182 90.2%

90.2% 89.8% 90.6%

2 KATY ISD 79,913 87.3%

87.2% 86.0% 87.6%

3 LEANDER ISD 40,031 85.2%

84.7% 83.3% 84.4%

4 MANSFIELD ISD 35,293 84.9%

83.6% 81.3% 81.9%

5 KELLER ISD 35,088 84.4%

83.7% 83.2% 83.4%

6 ROUND ROCK ISD 50,387 84.0%

84.3% 83.7% 87.0%

7 PLANO ISD 53,057 83.1%

82.4% 81.9% 87.8%

8 CONROE ISD 62,837 82.6%

82.6% 81.7% 84.5%

9 LAMAR CISD 33,444 82.6%

81.5% 80.2% 82.6%

10 10 CLEAR CREEK ISD 42,205 81.2%

80.2% 80.7% 82.9%

74.3%

73.1% 71.3% 73.3%

State of Texas:

STAAR Passage Rate Rank District Name

2018-19 Enrollment

2018-19 STAAR Passage Rates

For Districts with More than 30,000 Students

Percent of Students in Charters

Fall 2018, Houston Metro, All Public Schools

Source: Texas Education Agency

HARRIS MONTGOMERY FORT BEND GALVESTON BRAZORIA

2017 17 Demog mographic raphic Update date

EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

September March September 6-Month Annual 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019

• Pct. Change
• Pct. Change

Houston

Employment

1,107,905 1,136,240 1,129,012

• 0.64%

1.91%

Unemployment Rate

4.1 3.5 3.7

Fort Bend County

Employment

367,178 374,014 376,594 0.69% 2.56%

Unemployment Rate

3.8 3.5 3.3

Harris County

Employment

2,204,433 2,246,447 2,260,812 0.64% 2.56%

Unemployment Rate

4.2 3.8 3.6

Waller County

Employment

21,816 22,242 22,354 0.50% 2.47%

Unemployment Rate

4.1 3.8 3.6

Annual Employment Trends

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

► New

ew Empl ploymen

• yment

t Epi picen enter ters Evolv lvin ing

► Comme

mmerci rcial al Expa pans nsio ion n in in Ka Katy

► E-Comme

• mmerce/Di

rce/Distri tribution bution Hubs --

• - In &

& Nea ear KI KISD

► More

e Jobs s Ins nsid ide the e Dis istrict ict

[10:32 AM] Justin Silhavy the new one will be called Empire West. Saving the article in Katy and Lamar

2017 17 Demog mographic raphic Update date

HOUSING TRENDS

► Analyze by Land Use Zones

(see map)

► Assess Impacts of Local

Ordinances

► Study Future Infrastructure ► Assess Inhibitors to Growth ► Project New Housing by Yr. for

Every Subdivision & Apt.

HOUSING PROJECTIONS METHODOLOGY

Density of Development

55% - Developed or developing 21% - Planned or likely to develop 24% - Not developable

Square Miles Left to Develop NE – 3.4 SE – 0.6 SW – 2.4 NW – 29.3

Roadway Improvements

Future Improvements/Widening

► 3Q1

Q19 annual ual housing sing starts ts totaled d 2,589 89

► KISD now 4th th biggest

t produce ucer r of homes out of 61 school distr tric icts ts in Houston ton area

► KISD was 1st st in starts

ts throug ugh h 2014 – but lost top rank

► Large

gest t assemb mblag age, e, at 1,600 0 acres, , is now owned d by Xu Qi Qing

► No specific

ific development ment plans ns

► Will dampen near-term

term projections ections in large ge sector tor

► Thir

ird d res eser ervoir

• ir now unlik

ikel ely y to occ ccur

► More

e im impr prov

• vemen

ements ts on ex n exis istin ing g dr drai aina nage ge channel els s and d for r stormw rmwater ater stora rage ge

► New

ew lot t pa pads ds bei eing ng bui uilt-up, up, wit ith req equi uire- men ents in in flood

• od pl

plain in rais isin ing c g costs sts pe per lot

► Significantly higher % of new lots are 40’

to 55’ wide

• Housing projections lost in “Northwest Katy”/Xu Qing

parcel being replaced by nearby smaller tracts developing

– 5 parcels that are 50 to 100 acres each - putting in infrastructure or have homes already underway

New, smaller subdivisions include:

• Grand Parkway at West Little York – 711 lots
• West Katy Lakes – 700 acres
• Lake House – in 3 LUZs
• Katy Crossing – 689 lots
• Katy Manor South – 700 lots
• Mission Prairie – 220 lots
• Bergama Vista and Raven Meadows – both under 100 acres

Assessing New Development – Part I

Grand Parkwa y @ West Little York 186 413 Katy Crossing 527 44 "Katy Investm ents/Bo b Rob" 69 470 Cross Creek 520 2 Tamarr

• n

437 78 Lin Family & Sweene y Estate 64 440

• 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Elyson Cane Island Bridgeland Camillo Lakes Morton Crk. Ran. Katy Lakes "Dollins" Jasmine "W. Katy Lks."

2024-2029 2019-2024

619 Total

} } } } } } } Fastest Growing Single-Family Developments

660Total 660 Total 755 Total 770 Total 1,314Total 4,027 Total

} 709 Total

920Total

}

PROJECTED SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING OCCUPANCIES

202 020–2029 2029

Ka Katy y Crossi rossing

571Total SF

Cross ross Creek 522 lots Camillo llo Lakes 770 lots Morton

• n Cree

eek k Ranch 755 lots Cane Isla land 1,314 lots Ka Katy y Lakes & West 1,328 lots Ely lyso son 4,027 lots Bridg dgeland 920 lots Dol

• llins

660 lots Jasmine ine 660 lots Gr. . Pkwy y @ W Lit ittle tle York rk 599 lots

► 133%

% increase crease in 65+ resid idents ents in 10 years ears

► Compa

mpared red to a 56% increa rease se in Katy I.S.D. S.D. total tal pop.

► Now 14% are

re millenn nnia ials ages 25-34 4 – up fro rom 11% in 2008 2008

► Millennials

lennials will l stru rugg ggle le to buy y most

• st homes
• mes in

K. K.I.S.D. S.D.

► Regenera

generation tion is occur curri ring ng in a few w older der subdiv bdivisi ision

• ns

s especially pecially those hose affe fected cted by Ha Harve vey

► 35%

% of all future ture housin sing g unit its = MF un F unit its

► 11.1%

.1% of curre rrent t stude dents s liv ive in e in MF un F unit its

► 15,108

,108 total al MF u F uni nits ten entat ative ively ly pr projecte jected, ,

but t under der-projected projected in latt tter er years s because ause of unknown “pop-up” locations

► Almost

• st cer

erta tain in to be e more e un unit its as as KI KISD buil ilds ds out and d MF dem F demand d in increa eases es

Multi-Family Housing

Multi-Family Complexes Now Being Occupied

LUZ Name Units 17 Pine Forest 34 18 Brighton 7 29B Abbey at Barker Cypress 3 29B Broadstone at Barker Cypress 60 29B Enclave at Cypress Park 6 29B Paramount 14 34 San Remo 88 37A Inkwell on Greenhouse 275 42A Eleva 5 47B Amberjack Estates 15 47B Kingsland West 27 47B Vue Kingsland 4 48 Broadstone Energy Park 63 48 H6 2 49 Grand on Memorial 70 49 Marquis on Memorial 3 49 Parkside at Memorial 32 61E Broadstone Falcon Landing 5 78D Grand Fountains 9 79B Marquis at Grand Lakes 6 79F Marquis at Cinco Ranch 10

Total: 738

LUZ Name Units 12A Davis Dev. 320 23C Crawford at Grand Morton 330 12B Seville at Clay Crossing 310 24A Elation 320 37A Orion Group 280 37A Territory at Greenhouse 345 37B The Vic at Park Ten 350 42B Lenox Crossing 330 42B Tessa Katy 250 42C Grand Reserve 380 53 Boardwalk Lofts 620 73I ParkLane Fulshear 290

Total: 4,125

Multi-Family Complexes Under Construction

NW NE SW

Future Multi-Family Complexes

LUZ Name Units LUZ Name Units 1C Friendswood/AVEX 420 7C BMG/Sowell 350 1C NW Katy 270 7C Westfield Village 310 1C Unnamed 280 13B MCI Grand Pkwy 260 2A Unnamed 630 34 Gross Land Fund 320 4G Odonoghue et. al. 310 34 Sueba/Williamsburg 320 6C Ventana Lakes East 500 34 Westside 420 6D Katy Pointe 310 37A Radius West 350 7A Unnamed 320 39 Blackhaw 145 11C Unnamed 645 42A RNTX Realty 180 33 Crest at Park West 330 42B Encore Enterprises 320 33 Park West Green 280 50A Unnamed 320 33 Park West/Katy's Pr. 315 51A Unnamed 320 33 SP Partners Holdings 210 51C Tamarron MF 280 16A Prima Terra 280 78D Enclave at Westpark Mds. 160 24C Apartments 280 49 Unnamed 150 25B Morton Lake Invest. 320 79A Cinco at FM 1093 340

Total: 10,245

NW NE SW SE

Future Multi- Family Complexes

• 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Single-Family Multi-Family

12,483 10,368 14,653 4,740

2019-2024 2024-2029

TOTAL

27,136 15,108 428 428 80 80 137 137

42,889

Townhomes + Condos

Total

Single-Family Housing Multi-Family Housing Senior Living Mixed Use

Projected New Housing Occupancies

2019–2029

STUDENTS per HOUSING UNIT

0.40 0.40 0.73 0.73

Sing Single le-Famil amily Multi Multi-Famil amily

Students per Occupied Unit

Districtwide

Student dent Gr Growth wth by by Type pe of f Housi using ng

# % Subdivisions - Built-out

64,388 65,205

817 817 1% 1%

23% 23%

Subdivisions - Actively Building

4,257 6,265

2,008 47% 47%

57% 57%

Apartments

8,595 9,300

705 705 8% 8%

20% 20%

Townhomes

67 67 65 65

• 2
• 2
• 3%
• MHPs

1,209 1,132

• 77
• 6%
• 3,530
• Pct. of

Growth

Added Students 2018 to 2019 2019

Resident Students in 2019 Resident Students in 2018

Recent Change in Existing Subdivisions

• 40
• 400
• 20
• 200

20 200 40 400 60 600 80 800 10 1000 00 20 2015-16 15-16 20 2016-17 16-17 20 2017-18 17-18 20 2018-19 18-19 20 2019-20 19-20

• 9
• 297
• 234
• 374

183 239 355 320 442 634 230 58 86 68 817 EE-5

• 5th

th 6th 6th-12th

• 12th

Total G

• tal Gai

ain/L n/Loss

• ss

► ~78.5

78.5% % of al all KI KISD stud uden ents ts ar are e in in ex exis istin ing g subdi divisi isions

• ns

► Fr

From m 2015 015 throug

• ugh

h 2018, 018, el elem emen enta tary ry stude dents ts wer ere e bei eing LO g LOST in in ol

• lde

der, buil ilt-out

• ut

subdi divisi isions

• ns

► In 2

n 2019 019, , 817 7 el elem emen enta tary ry stud uden ents ts wer ere e ADDED ED in in ex exis istin ing g subdi divi vision ions

► 2018 to 2019 saw an

n inc ncrease ease in n bo both h elementar mentary and secondary ndary students dents

► Up to 50% of this

is 2019 increase rease was due to the resa sale le of Harv rvey ey-aff ffected ected homes es

Students Living in Existing, Built-out Subdivisions

► Re

Re-occupi upied d flooded d homes are regenerating ating with h younge ger homeowners ners and more KISD students ents

► 2018

2018-2019 2019 increas rease e in stude dent nts was from the largest t and last wave of rehabbed d apart rtme ment nts and d homes

► ~600 to ~1,00

,000 0 stude dent nts were added d back to these rehabbed d homes & apart rtme ment nts: : Fall 2018 to Fall 2019

Impacts of Harvey in K.I.S.D.

STUDENT PROJECTIONS

2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2024

Enrollment

85,917 88,273 90,327 92,386 94,579

% Growth 2.98% 2.74% 2.33% 2.28% 2.37% Growth 2,490 2,356 2,054 2,058 2,193 2025 2025 2026 2026 2027 2027 2028 2028 2029 2029

Enrollment

96,634 98,629 100,468 102,470 104,575

% Growth 2.17% 2.06% 1.86% 1.99% 2.05% Growth 2,055 1,995 1,839 2,003 2,105

Moderate Growth Scenario

Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot Date

Three Scenarios of Growth

83,427 94,579

93,172 96,410 101,428 108,235

104,575

75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 105,000

2015 2017 2019 2024 Enrollment Year

Low/High Range Actual Projected

2029

LONG RANGE PLANNING

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

=

+

Pro rojectio jections ns by Land Use Zone

► By Grade Group, by Year ► Can by Joined into Current

Attendance Zones

► Can be Joined into “Catchment

Areas” for New Attendance Zone Planning

Econo nomy Project cted ed Housing ing Studen ents ts per Home Geocoded coded Studen ents ts Recen ent t Trends ds

The Process

Projections by LUZ do not account for transfers

Projections by Attendance Zone

White stars denote bilingual campuses

Capacity and Geocoded Students Shown

Projections by Attendance Zone

White stars denote bilingual campuses

Capacity and Geocoded Students Shown

Geocoded Projections by Attendance Zone

White stars denote bilingual campuses

Capacity and Geocoded Students Shown

Projections by Attendance Zone

Capacity and Geocoded Students Shown

White stars denote bilingual campuses

Projected Added Geocoded Students by Elementary AZ: 2019-2029

► Add

ddit itio ional l schools hools in in C Cane I e Island d and d the e far ar no north

► Al

All of these se new ew schools hools will requ quire ire bond nd fun unds ds for constructi nstruction

• n

► Addi

dditio iona nal l rez ezoni

• ning

ng el elsew ewhere here in in the e Dis istri rict ct – NE, wit ith some me agi ging ex g expe pecte ted d in in SW in W in t the fu e future ture

Geocoded Projections by Attendance Zone

Capacity Shown No Transfers Included

Projected Added Geocoded Students by JH AZ: 2019-2029

► SW wi

W will ultim imate tely ly age ge

► Nex

ext 2 ju junio ior r hig igh school hool ex expe pected ted in in t the e Northe thern rn po portion ion of the e Dis istric rict t – LUZ UZ 10B in in 2 2021 21 and L d LUZ 6 Z 6B in in future ture

► Dist

strict rict owns s land, , but constr truction ction of the 2nd

nd will

l requi uire e bo bond nd fun unds

Geocoded Projections by Attendance Zone

No Grandfathering Included

Capacity for all HS: 3000

Projected Added Geocoded Students by HS AZ: 2019-2029

► High

gh School

• ol 10 in 6B to relieve KHS and

d PHS

► Dist

strict rict owns s land, , but constr truction ction will l require uire bo bond nd fun unds

► May still

l need a d add dditional high school hool space by build-out

• ut

Katy I.S.D.

Demographics

Employ- ment

Housing Students per Home Projected Students

2017 2017 Demo mogr graphic phic Updat pdate

KA KATY Y IS ISD