The Long Island Hispanic Population—Mapping Nativity and Voter-Eligibility Center for Urban Research Steve Romalewski, Director, CUNY Mapping Service Lee Hachadoorian, Spatial Analyst
Background � Horace Hagedorn Foundation sought a better understanding of the demographics of Hispanics on Long Island � Improve grantmaking � Assist voter mobilization � Previous work by Rob Paral allocating large- area population to smaller geographical units Center for Urban Research City University of New York
Background (cont.) � Long Island’s largest sources of legal Hispanic immigration are (a/o 2005) � El Salvador � Dominican Republic � Colombia � Ecuador � Perú � Guatemala Source: Dept of Homeland Security Profiles on Legal Permanent Residents Center for Urban Research City University of New York
Data Challenges � Small-area data is now eight years old (US Census 2000) � American Community Survey provides data from 2006 for ~100,000 person units called Public Use Microdata Areas � Statistical variation in PUMA-level ACS data makes it unreliable for narrowly defined subpopulations (e.g. specific racial/ethnic categories) � PUMAs do not correlate to geographies of interest such as legislative districts Center for Urban Research City University of New York
Conflicting Geographies Center for Urban Research City University of New York
Census Tables of Interest Table Smallest Source Year Number Table Name Geography SF1 2000 P11 Hispanic or Latino Block SF1 2000 PCT11 Hispanic or Latino by Specific Origin Tract Place of Birth by Citizenship Status SF3 2000 PCT63H (Hispanic or Latino) Tract Hispanic or Latino Origin by Specific ACS 2005/06 B/C03001 Origin PUMA Sex by Age by Citizenship Status ACS 2005/06 B05003I (Hispanic or Latino) PUMA Place of Birth by Race (Hispanic or ACS 2005/06 B06004I Latino) PUMA Center for Urban Research City University of New York
Voter Eligibility at the Tract Level Age Age Under 18 Under 18 18 and Over 18 and Over Citizenship Citizenship 30% 30% 70% 70% Citizen Citizen 60% 60% 18% 42% Non- Non- 40% 40% 12% 28% Citizen Citizen Center for Urban Research City University of New York
Dealing with Statistical Anomalies North Hempstead Pop Est 4201 ACS Total Pop 4204 ACS Total Pop 4201 Hisp Pop 4204 Hisp Pop 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Center for Urban Research City University of New York
Allocating Population to Census Tracts � Assume 2005/06 follows 2000 patterns within each PUMA � Thus, if the number of foreign-born Hispanics in the PUMA grows by 50%, every tract within it also grows by 50% 150 100 10% 1000 1500 Center for Urban Research City University of New York
Allocating Population to Census Blocks � Legislative boundaries cross Census Tracts � Assume foreign/native-born pattern follows pattern of total Hispanic population within each Tract � Not a bad assumption because many Census Blocks have zero population (parks, transportation rights-of-way) Center for Urban Research City University of New York
Aggregate to Legislative Geography � Legislative Geographies � New York State Assembly Districts � New York State Senate Districts � Nassau and Suffolk County Legislative Districts Center for Urban Research City University of New York
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