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Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts
- Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E.
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Overview
- Research Goals
- Overview of program
- Available products
Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts Dr. Annie Kammerer, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts Dr. Annie Kammerer, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E. NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research RIC 2009 1 Overview Research Goals Overview of program Available products 2 Research Goals Better understanding
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Research Goals
- Better understanding for all US coasts
- Development of a source database
- Integration of landslide modeling
- Input for probable maximum tsunami
(PMT) hazard levels
- PTHA (probabilistic) where appropriate
- Incorporation into regulatory guidance
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NRC RESEARCH
Pacific Coast East Coast Gulf Coast Hawaii
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Damage comes from…
- Wave inundation
- Drawdown (important for plants)
- Floating debris
- Scour
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Size of Tsunami (m) Recurrence Interval (yr)
≡(annual probability of exceedence)-1
1 10 100 1000 10000 1 10 100 1000
Distant Earthquakes Local Earthquakes Landslides Asteroid Impact Volcanoes
Idealization of size-frequency relationship of tsunami sources
Power et al., 2005
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Sources Addressed
- Near-field seismic
- Far-field seismic
- Near-field landslide
- Far-field landslide
- NOT:
– Asteroid Impacts – Volcanic
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Research Plan
- 1. Data collection, review of current state of
knowledge, interpretation of data, basic modeling (completed - first USGS report)
- 2. Targeted field work, additional analyses,
additional modeling (second USGS report)
- 3. Updating NOAA models for landslide
sources, global modeling
- 4. Hazard map development
- 5. PTHA
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Data collection, review of current state of knowledge, interpretation of data, basic modeling (2008)
ML082960196 (IJMG special
publication)
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Near Field Landslides
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Currituck Landslide
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Currituck Landslide
0 100 200 300 KM
- 40 -20 0 20 40
Meters
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Existing Data
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Far-Field Landslide Sources EUS
- Cumbre Vieja, Canary Islands
- Glaciated margins of northern
Europe and Canada
– Storegga landslide, Norway – Eastern Scotian margin (0.15 MYA) – 1929 Grand Banks landslide
- The mid-Atlantic ridge
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Canary and Hawaiian Islands
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Lituya Bay
1,700 feet
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- West of Gibraltar
– 1755 Lisbon – 1761 Earthquake and Tsunami
- The Northeast
Caribbean
– Puerto Rico Trench – Hispaniola Trench – Northern Panama
Far-Field Seismic Sources
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Caribbean Plate Far-Field Seismic Sources
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Modeling Sources
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Southern Caribbean Subduction Zone
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Global Modeling & Mapping
- NOAA to use UGSG source information to add
landslide capability that works with global (MOST) model
- NOAA modeling addresses “linear” part of analyses
- Site-specific inundation modeling performed
separately
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Advanced Methods
- PTHA = Probabilistic tsunami hazard
assessments
- Focus of significant US research efforts
- Techniques analogous to probabilistic
seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which are the basis of US NRC seismic hazard guidance
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Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard
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