Tropical Deforestation: 50 Years Ago, Today and 50 Years in the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Tropical Deforestation: 50 Years Ago, Today and 50 Years in the Future

Doug Boucher, Pipa Elias, Calen May-Tobin, Sarah Roquemore and Lael Goodman

Union of Concerned Scientists 1825 K Street, NW Washington, DC 20006 USA

dboucher@ucsusa.org

Goal of this presentation:

• To look at past, current and future

deforestation, and the forces driving it: – 50 years ago, when the ATBC/OTS was founded – Today – Possible changes in the next 50 years

The 1960s – the postwar peak in global population growth

Source: U.N. Population Division (2009) World Population Prospects. Estimates based on data for 1950-2010, projections for 2010- 2050 Red dashed line (TFR 2.1) indicates zero long-term growth rate

Main drivers of deforestation in the 1960s and 1970s

• Small-scale farmers and ranchers moving

into humid tropical forest regions, e.g.: –The eastern side of Central America –Amazonia –The outer islands of Indonesia

Government policies concerning humid tropical forests

• Large-scale colonization and resettlement

programs –Related to the Cold War and pressure for land reform –Tropical forests as “safety valves” –National sovereignty issues

Greenhouse gas emissions

In the late twentieth century, there was a fairly high and consistent rate of emissions from land use change, most of which was due to tropical deforestation

Data from Global Carbon Budget, 2011

Important changes in the 21st Century

• New drivers of deforestation
• Changes in demography
• Recognition of the importance of deforestation

in relation to climate and GHG emissions

New global drivers

• Commercial agriculture and forestry, not

small-scale farmers

• Export markets and urban demand
• Main commodities involved:

– Soy – Beef – Palm oil – Timber – Pulp and paper

Rudel 2007, Rudel et al. 2009, DeFries et al. 2010, Lambin & Meyfroidt 2011

Changes in demography

• Population growth

rates much lower, including in tropical forest nations:

• Rural populations

no longer growing in Brazil, Indonesia, etc.

• Global population

expected to level

• ff in later 21st-

century

• Rapid urbanization

Awareness of the relation between deforestation and global warming

• About 15% of global

emissions in the 1990s

• A lower percentage now,

although much of the change is due to an increased denominator (continued increase in fossil fuel emissions)

• Reducing deforestation

came to be seen as an inexpensive way to mitigate climate change

Recent success in reducing deforestation

• 75% drop in the

Amazon of Brazil in six years

• With continued growth

and profitability of the soy and beef industries, previously the main drivers

Boucher et al. 2011, Root of the Problem; Data from INPE and FAO

An example: Costa Rica

• Deforestation and

then forest restoration in the Chorotega region of northwestern Costa Rica

• Calvo-Alvorado et
• al. 2009, Forest

Ecology and Management

Reductions in deforestation in other tropical countries as well

Examples:

• Mexico
• Peru
• Gambia
• Dominican Republic
• Vietnam
• Indonesia (according to official data)

Result: a substantial drop in emissions from land use change

From a mean

• f 5.25 Gt

CO2/year from 1960 to 1999, emissions have fallen to 3.25 Gt CO2/year in 2010

Data from Global Carbon Budget, 2011

Fifty years in the future what might be possible?

Goal of zero net deforestation by 2020

• Deforestation rate

reduced to a level matched by natural forest restoration

• Emissions due to

deforestation balanced by sequestration due to revegetation

Figure from Aide et al. 2013 Biotropica

Important issues 50 years in the future

• Forest degradation becoming increasingly important

(Morton et al. 2013)

• Restoration not only of carbon, but also of biodiversity
• Comprehensive land use policies could/should become

a standard development pathway for tropical countries

• Research by ATBC members can help address these

issues

Thanks to: ClimateWorks Foundation Climate and Land Use Alliance European Federation for Transport and Environment Linden Trust for Conservation Packard Foundation Liz Clark, Estrellita Fitzhugh, Katherine Lininger, Earl Saxon and Stu Sheppard

This UCS report and others can be downloaded at: www.ucsusa.org/whatsdrivingdeforestation and at www.ucsusa.org/forests