Assessing potential biodiversity impacts of policies that address - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Assessing potential biodiversity impacts of policies that address drivers of deforestation to achieve REDD+ objectives

Dr Valerie Kapos Dr Rebecca Mant

REDD+ and drivers of deforestation

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REDD +

(a) Reducing emissions from deforestation; (b) Reducing emissions from forest degradation; (c) Conservation of forest carbon stocks; (d) Sustainable management of forests; (e) Enhancement of forest carbon stocks.

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REDD+ activities

e.g. reduced deforestation

Risks

e.g. Displacement of land- use change to ecosystems important for biodiversity

Opportunities

e.g. Slowed loss & fragmentation of habitat

REDD+ and biodiversity conservation

REDD+ and biodiversity

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CBD Strategic Plan Aichi Biodiversity Targets

• Target 5 “By 2020, the rate of loss of all natural

habitats, including forests, is at least halved . . .”

• Target 15 “By 2020, ... the contribution of

biodiversity to carbon stocks has been enhanced, . . . including restoration of at least 15 per cent of degraded ecosystems, . . .

UNFCCC Cancun Safeguards Safeguard (e)

“That actions are consistent with the conservation of natural forests and biological diversity, ensuring that [actions] are not used for the conversion of natural forests, but are instead used to incentivize the protection and conservation of natural forests and their ecosystem services, and to enhance other social and environmental benefits;”

REDD-PAC project

“REDD-PAC aims to support the design of national and regional REDD+ policies that safeguard and enhance ecosystem services, in particular those services distinguished by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity”

• Integrated land-use modelling (GLOBIOM)

to assess impacts of REDD+ policy options

• member countries of the Central African Forests

Commission (COMIFAC)

• Brazil
• Spatial analysis of potential benefits from

REDD+ in 5additional countries

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Using land use models to asses impacts

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CO2

Changes in trade

Change in Land use & Land cover Production

Emissions Biodiversity Growing Populations Changing diets

Policy & Context

(moderators)

Drivers of land use change

. . .

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CO2

Changes in trade

Change in Land use & Land cover Production

Emissions Biodiversity Growing Populations Changing diets

Policy & Context

(moderators)

Drivers of land use change

. . .

1

• Identifying nationally

relevant and realistic policy options

• Expressing them in

terms suitable for modelling

2

• Reconciling model

land use categories & changes with actual land uses and associated land cover

3

• Assessing

impacts on biodiversity

• f different

policy

• ptions

Challenges

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Challenges: 1. Policy Options

Preliminary results on levels

• f deforestation with

different levels of enforcement of the reforestation requirements within the forest code.

• Many countries are still developing REDD+ strategies
• Brazil is likely to focus on increasing enforcement of the

current forest code and related policies

• REDD-PAC is first exploring:
• Impact of protected areas

(by comparing land use change with and without them).

• Impacts of enforcing forest code re-forestation requirements.

Challenges: 2. Reconciling land uses/covers and understanding changes

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Increase in productive area Decreases in:

• forest
• ‘other natural land’
• Secondary vegetation
• Remnants primary veg.

Preliminary results – change in productive area 2000-2010

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Increase in productive area Decreases in forest and ‘other natural land’

Preliminary results – change in productive area 2000-2010 Ancillary data used to assess minimum decrease in primary vegetation remnants due to increases in productive use

Challenges: 2. Reconciling land uses/covers and understanding changes

Challenges: 3. Assessing impacts on biodiversity

Projected land use/cover change under different policy options explored in terms of:

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• Changes in “important” places
• areas identified as important for

biodiversity conservation

• ecosystems of concern
• Changes within species ranges
• Different types of species
• All species combined

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Change in biodiversity priority areas – e.g. preliminary results for Brazil

National priority areas for biodiversity conservation (MMA, Brazil 2007)

Assessing land use change in biodiversity priority areas

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Land use change in biodiversity priority areas:

Amount of converted land within priority areas in each cell

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Initial draft results from Brazil Minimum Maximum

Change within species ranges

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IUCN distribution data

• n mammal, bird,

amphibian species (total 1637 in DRC)

+

Species habitat preferences Change in suitable habitat within extent of

• ccurrence of each

species

Chimpanzee extent

• f occurrence in

DRC overlaid on modelling units

e.g. Chimpanzee range in DRC

e.g. Preliminary results: Combined impact on threatened species in DRC

Change within species ranges: all species or key subsets

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Change in suitable habitat within extent

• f occurrence of each

species can be weighted in relation to total available habitat and combined with results other species for an overview of biodiversity impact

Spatial distribution

• f impact across

species

Next steps

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• Modelling specific policy options
• Brazil: how do biodiversity impacts differ if efforts to

enhance implementation are concentrated on forests in biodiversity priority areas

• Congo Basin: identifying & modelling options

common to emerging REDD+ strategies in several countries

• e.g. increase in protected areas; improved

agricultural management/production

• Using national biodiversity data including

species range data.

Thank you for listening, Any Questions?

Valerie.Kapos@unep-wcmc.org

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