Trends and Opportunities City Manager Presentation December 4, 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Trends and Opportunities

City Manager Presentation December 4, 2018

1

Multiple Planning Efforts Have Updated and Informed the Adopted Master Plan

2

2

Major Planning Efforts in Grand Rapids

• 2002 City Comprehensive Master Plan (2,500 + people)
• 2012 Green Grand Rapids (1,800 + people)
• 2015 GR Forward and River Corridor Plan (4,400 + people)

3

Broad Themes of Envisioning Grand Rapids as:

• Growing, vibrant, livable and welcoming
• Healthy, safe, talented and educated
• Diverse economic industries with wealth creation
• Equitable and affordable
• Arts, culture, recreation and entertainment
• Environmentally sustainable
• Mobile, connected and compacted
• Public/Private partnerships (Ecosystem and not “Ego” system)
• Excellent public service that is fiscally responsible
• Innovation and technology leader

4

Trends

5

Year Population Growth Rate 2011 189,008 2012 190,617 0.85% 2013 192,725 1.11% 2014 194,054 0.69% 2015 194,847 0.41% 2016 196,251 0.72% 6 Year Average Growth Rate 2017 198,829 1.31% 0.85%

• Est. 2018

200,516 0.85%

• Est. 2019

202,217 0.85%

• Est. 2020

203,932 0.85%

• Est. 2025

212,581 0.85%

• Est. 2030

221,598 0.85%

• Est. 2040

240,395 0.85%

Grand Rapids Estimated Population Growth

Source – World Population Review with staff estimates for 2018 and beyond

6

Tax Year Number of W-2's Growth Rate 2011 279,818 2012 229,901

• 18%

2013 241,487 5% 2014 258,441 7% 2015 264,037 2% 2016 265,932 1% 2017 283,360 7% *Est 2018 285,087 0.61% 6 Year Average Growth Rate of 0.61%

Grand Rapids W-2 Growth

*Source- Estimate for 2018 is based on the 2011-2017 growth rate in W-2 filings.

7

Grand Rapids Estimated Housing Growth

Grand Rapids Housing Unit Projections Year Housing Units Growth Rate 2011 81,575 2012 81,678 0.13% 2013 82,000 0.39% 2014 82,318 0.39% 2015 82,779 0.56% 2016 82,936 0.19% 2017 83,745 0.98% Est 2018 85,121 1.64% Est 2019 86,177 1.24% Est 2020 86,539 0.42% Est 2021 86,900 0.42% Est 2022 87,262 0.42% Est 2023 87,624 0.41% Est 2024 87,985 0.41% Est 2025 88,347 0.41%

6 Year Average Growth Rate

• f 0.41%

Source- Grand Rapids Planning Department

8

Comparative 6 Year Average Growth Rates

Population growth .85% Housing growth .41% W-2 growth .61%

9

Development Center

Grand Rapids Housing Unit Projections

The graph below illustrates the trend in total City housing units since the 2010 U.S. Census. The Census Bureau’s estimate is based upon data collected through City reporting, the American Community Survey, and other sources. The red line shows the Zimmerman/Volk “Housing Demand” report from 2015 which indicated that the City should add 5,705 to 7,615 new housing units in the next five years and that demand for affordable/workforce units could be between 1,575 and 2,080 of that amount. The middle line depicts 81,595 housing units (2010 Census) plus the annual net addition of housing units constructed and demolished from 2011 through 2018. Trends beyond 2018 are based on consistent growth of 362 units per year (average for 2012-16 period).

81,595 86,539 82,779 89,439

74,000 76,000 78,000 80,000 82,000 84,000 86,000 88,000 90,000 92,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Housing Units

Grand Rapids Housing Unit Projections

Census-Est (through 2016) Census (2011) plus GR-Net Completed (2011-2018) Census (2011) plus GR-Net Projected (2019-2025) GR-Construction (2015) plus Z-V Avg. Estimate (2016-2020)

10

P3 S3

Modeling Supply and Demand

Q3

11

Fund Balance- Reserve Level

11.70% 12.50% 7.20% 10.60% 11.60% 12.20% 16.90% 20.50% 22.50% 3.10% 5.00% 7.20% 10.10% 9.70% 10.70% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018

Fund Balance as a % of GOF Expenditures

General Fund Unassigned FB% Budget Stabilization FB%

12

Unemployment Rate- October 2018

National 3.7% Michigan 3.9% Grand Rapids 3.2%

13

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

City of Grand Rapids Internal Workforce Turnover Rate

Percentage Turnover

14

Source: American Community Survey 5-year tables (2012-2016)

15

An Equity Profile of Grand Rapids

Insert Map

Supported by:

16

Economic Vitality People of color have higher unemployment rates regardless of education level

40 25% 16% 12% 6% 13% 8% 5% 26% 21% 18% 3.3% 3.2% 3.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Less than a HS Diploma HS Diploma, no College Some College, no Degree AA Degree, no BA BA Degree

• r higher

In general, unemployment decreases as educational attainment increases. But people

• f color face higher rates of joblessness at all

education levels compared to their White counterparts. The largest gaps are among those with some college, but no degree: people of color are more than twice as likely to be unemployed than their White peers.

30%

Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. Universe includes the civilian noninstitutional labor force ages 25 through 64. Note: Data represent a 2010 through 2014 average. Data for some racial/ethnic groups are excluded due to small samplesize.

People of color have higher unemployment rates than Whites Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity, 2014 All White People of Color

17

PolicyLink andPERE 35 30% 34% 40% 38% 30% 29% 1979 1989 1999 2014 Lower Middle Upper $29,299 $71,494 $64,712 $26,519

Although the city’s middle class has stayed relatively stable since 1979, it is beginningto

• shrink. Since 1999, the share of both upper-

and middle-income households has declined. The share of lower-income households in Grand Rapids has grown to 34 percent. In this analysis, middle-income households are defined as having incomes in the middle 40 percent of household income distribution. In 1979, those household incomes ranged from $29,299 to $71,494. To assess change in the middle class and the other income ranges, we calculated what the income range would be today if incomes had increased at the same rate as average household income growth. Today’s middle-class incomes would be $26,519 to $64,712, and 38 percent of households fall within that range.

An Equity Profile of Grand Rapids

Economic Vitality The middle class is beginning to shrink

The share of middle-class households is beginning to shrink Households by Income Level, 1979 and 2014

Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. Universe includes all households (no group quarters). Note: Data for 2014 represents a 2010 through 2014 average. Dollar values are in 2014 dollars.

18

An Equity Profile of Grand Rapids PolicyLink andPERE 38 12% 8% 15% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 27% 15% 5% 47.3% 46.5% 45% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Latino, Black, and mixed/other race residents

• f Grand Rapids experience poverty at rates

that are about three times as high as their White peers. The same is true for working poverty. Latinos have the highest rate of working poverty, at 26 percent, followed by African American residents at 15 percent.

Economic Vitality High rates of poverty and working poor among Black residents

Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. Universe includes the civilian noninstitutional population ages 25 through 64 not in groupquarters. Note: Data represent a 2010 through 2014 average.

Working poverty is highest for Latinos Poverty is highest for African Americans, Latinos, and those of Mixed/other race Poverty Rate by Race/Ethnicity, 2014

All White Black Latino Asian or Pacific Islander Mixed/other

Working Poverty Rate by Race/Ethnicity, 2014

All White Black Latino

Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. Universe includes all persons not in group quarters. Note: Data represent a 2010 through 2014 average.

19

Opportunities

20

• How might we maintain a resilient and vibrant economy for business?
• How might we break the cycle of poverty and address the disparities in social
• utcomes so all residents experience economic mobility and affordability?
• How might we ensure the safety of all residents in partnership with

community and other organizations?

• How might we have an effective multimodal transportation system and other

infrastructure that can meet the demands of the region in an environmentally responsible and sustainable way?

• How might we promote diverse art, civic, cultural venues, and events that

add to the quality of life and vibrancy of the community?

• How might we ensure government services are appropriately equipped with

talent, technology and resources to deliver reliable and innovative outcomes?

As We Consider Strategy and Budget Development:

21

• Describe aspirational vision
• Set broad policy priorities but be clear on outcomes
• Data-driven evaluation/metrics to determine

effectiveness and accountability

Strategic Considerations

22

Next Steps

• Dec. 4, 2018

Initial discussion on Strategic Planning and priorities

• Dec. 7 2018 - Jan. 2019

Top Management begins work in shaping vision and priorities into a Strategic Plan January 2019 City Manager Update #1 to City Commission and community on Strategic Plan development (on-site and online) February 12, 2019 Update #2 to City Commisison on Strategic Plan March 5, 2019 Update #3 to City Commisison on Strategic Plan March 26, 2019 Adopt and publish FY2020-2024 Strategic Plan April 23, 2019 City Manager's Preliminary FY20 Budget presented to City Commission May 21, 2019 Commission adopts FY20 Budget March 2019 - June 2021 Citywide Master Plan process (anticipated schedule)

23

Discussion

24