Transportation Electrification: Recent Developments and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Transportation Electrification: Recent Developments and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Transportation Electrification: Recent Developments and Implications for the Grid MADRI Meeting March 11, 2019 Nancy E. Ryan, Ph.D. Partner About Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) Founded in 1989, E3 is an industry leading

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Transportation Electrification: Recent Developments and Implications for the Grid

MADRI Meeting March 11, 2019

Nancy E. Ryan, Ph.D. Partner

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About Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3)

Consumer Advocates Environmental Interests Energy Consumers State Agencies Regulatory Authorities State Executive Branches Legislators Utilities System Operators Financial Institutions Project Developers Technology Companies Asset Owners Financiers/Investors

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Founded in 1989, E3 is an industry leading consultancy in North America with a growing international presence E3’s 50+ consultants operate at the nexus of energy and environmental economics, regulation and public policy Our team employs a unique combination of economic analysis, modeling acumen, and deep institutional insight to solve complex problems and provide thought leadership for a diverse client base

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Update on state of EV technology and key trends Characteristics of EV charging loads and implications for the grid Results from selected studies on distribution grid upgrade costs What’s next? Outline of presentation

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Automakers are committing to EVs on a global basis

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The purchase price premium for EVs is declining with battery costs

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Source: https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

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EV Vehicle Models Available (2010-22)

Source: https://www.epri.com/#/pages/summary/000000003002013754/?lang=en

Vehicle buyers will soon have many ZEV options

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Medium and Heavy Duty segments are transforming also

Here Today Coming Tomorrow

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Timing of battery electric vehicle cost parity with diesel counterparts

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*Source: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/whats-sparking-electric-vehicle-adoption-in-the-truck-industry

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Technologies and policies are developing to support vehicle-grid integration (VGI)

V2G capability allows PEV to discharge to grid, receive payment for services V2H/V2B/V2X capability can enhance PEV value proposition ‘Smart’ charging (or ‘V1G’) through targeted utility tariffs

  • r communication from grid operator to aggregator / vehicle

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Grid integration measures: Smart Charging (V1G)

Rate design:

  • Time of use (TOU) rates vary on a

fixed schedule and are higher during periods of peak demand on the bulk power system.

  • Dynamic rates vary from hour to

hour with conditions on the bulk system or local grid (SDG&E’s Charge Ready Pilot) Demand response:

  • The utility or a third party directly controls

when and even where a vehicle charges: PG&E/BMW pilot

  • Customer is paid for performance and can
  • ver-ride if desired.
  • Aggregator may employ stationary battery

backup to assure performance. Washington DC

(No Time Varying Rates)

San Diego

(TOU Rates)

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Distribution grid impacts of EV Adoption in the SF Bay Area

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2010 2020 2030

Feeder and substation utilization with “ZEV most likely” vehicle adoption and TOU rates

http://caletc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/CalETC_TEA_Phase_2_Final_10-23-14.pdf

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NYSERDA Cost Benefit Analysis of LDV Electrification in New York

12 1,921 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Costs Benefits

NPV $/Vehicle

Avoided Gasoline 72% Gasoline Security Value 11% Avoided Vehicle O&M 17% Energy 69% T&D Capacity 19% Gen. Capacity 7% Losses 4% AS 1% Tax Credits

eVMT Savings Emissions ng Infrastructure Net Benefi

  • Incr. Vehic

Electricity Charging I Net Benefit

  • Incr. Vehicle Cost

Electricity Supply

Societal Benefits on Long Island, Base Case

eVMT Savings Electricity Supply Costs

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Avoided T&D costs drive savings from smart charging in New York study

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Three transportation revolutions present new challenges

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Coming soon: Ultrafast DCFC Charging Plazas

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A load as big as a Walmart in the footprint of a 7-11

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Three Revolutions: Dream Scenario

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DREAM

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Three Revolutions: Nightmare Scenario

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NIGHTMARE

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THANK YOU

Nancy E. Ryan, Ph.D. Partner nancy.ryan@ethree.com 415-391-5100 www.ethree.com

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Specs: Electric Delivery Vans (Class 5)

Charging: conductive, plug-in

  • Level 2 (J1772) and DC fast charging capable
  • Level 2: overnight charge
  • DC fast charging: 80% charge in ~1 hour
  • Battery packs: 60-100 kWh

Manufacturers: Workhorse, Chanje

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Specs: Parcel Trucks (Class 6)

Charging: conductive, plug-in

  • Level 2 (J1772) and DC fast charging capable
  • Battery packs: 70-120 kWh

Manufacturers: Workhorse, Boulder Electric, Thor

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Electric Bus Specs

Charging options:

  • Conductive (plug-in): Level 2, DC fast charging, and

pantographs

  • Inductive (wireless): limited commercial availability; most

expensive option and remains largely in pilot phase

  • Battery packs: ~60 – 600 kWh (current best in class is 400

– 600 kWh depending on manufacturer)

Many manufacturers:

  • Transit: BYD, Proterra, Solaris, VDL, Optare, Volvo, Van

Hool, and many high-volume manufacturers supplying the Chinese market

  • Transit bus manufacturing volume is dominated by Chinese firms, but

competition from US and European manufacturers is growing.

  • School: Lion, Blue Bird, Green Power, Starcraft, Trans Tech

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E-bus Charging Technologies

Source and Image: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Slow charger: 15-22 kW, full charge in ~10h

  • 2:1 bus-to-charger ratio

Fast (22-50 kW) and Rapid (50-120 kW) chargers: full charge in 2-6h

  • 20:1 bus-to-charger ratio

Most common for

  • vernight or layover

charging Direct electrical connection, without plug

  • 20:1 bus-to-charger

ratio

150-300 kW power

  • utput

Offered by many e- bus providers (e.g., Proterra, Solaris, VDL, Volvo, Van Hool) Coils under road surface transfer energy to coils beneath bus floor Power output up to 200 kW Stationary systems (bus positioned over coils) commercially available today

  • 20:1 bus-to-charger ratio

Dynamic systems (bus charged while in motion) remain in pilot / demo stage

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Challenges and Opportunities

Challenges

  • Including charges, electric buses have upfront premium of

~$300,000 over diesel buses (which typically cost $450,000 – 750,000)

  • Existing commercial and industrial rates may not currently

be suitable for early state deployment of electric buses, which can significantly impact customer bills

  • Bus loads can be 100 kW – 500 kW, depending on charger

type

Opportunities

  • School buses provide a unique opportunity to create a day-

time load

  • Large batteries of ~200kWh are also potential sources of

ancillary services

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