Recent Economic Developments Recent Economic Developments January, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Recent Economic Developments Recent Economic Developments January, 2 0 0 9 Published by Investors Relations Unit Republic Indonesia Address Bank Indonesia International Directorate / Division of Foreign Debt Analysis
Published by Investors Relations Unit – Republic Indonesia Address Bank Indonesia International Directorate / Division of Foreign Debt Analysis and Investor Relations Sjafruddin Prawiranegara Building 5th floor Sjafruddin Prawiranegara Building, 5th floor
Jakarta, 10110 Indonesia Tel +6221 3818316 +6221 3818298 Facsimile +62213501950 E-mail elsya_chani@bi.go.id dyah_mw@bi.go.id Website www.bi.go.id/iru 2
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manufacturing sector remain the largest contributors to economic growth
communication sectors
GDP C ti I t t
, y g g g p , p p government spending. Due to the US and global slowdown, GDP growth outlook was revised downward from 6.4% to a range of 6.0–6.3% due to lower exports
5.9% 5.8% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1% 6.4% 6.5% 6.3% 6.1% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 14.9% 15.4% 12 8% 16.7% 5 0% 6.0% 7.0% GDP Y-o-Y 15 0% 18.0% 21.0% GDP Consumption Investment 6.7% 3 8% 5.6% 3 5% 4.6% 4.6% 5.3% 5.1% 5.6% 4.9% 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 6.9% 10.4% 12.1% 12.8% 12.0% 5.5% 10.4% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% 2.0% 2.6% 3.8% 2.8% 3.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.8% 2.7% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 0.0% 3.0% 6.0%
6
Source: Bank Indonesia, BPS.
2005 FY: 5.69% 2006 FY: 5.51% 2007 FY: 6.32% 2008
Trade Balance ($bn) ($bn)
4
7
Source: Bank Indonesia.
IDR bn %y-o-y
208 235 32 40 Outstanding Investment Credit
24.1 24.9 26.8
154 181 16 24 Growth (RHS ) Investment Credit
22.4 23.6 24.1
100 127
Q1 2006 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 Q2 Q3
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19.4 19.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
remained strong in the first quarters of 2008
Investment credit grew by 36% (Y-o-Y) in July 2008, from 23% in 2007
2006 2007 2008
J an- Sep to 26.8% in the first three quarters of 2008
8
Source: Bank Indonesia.
In May 2008 BI started to raise the BI rate as a timely response to contain high inflationary pressures and then resolved to hold the BI Rate at
In May 2008 BI started to raise the BI rate, as a timely response to contain high inflationary pressures and then resolved to hold the BI Rate at 9.5%. November’s Board of Governors’ Meeting, Having considered current domestic and international condition and 2009 outlook, BI decided to lower the BI Rate to 8.75%. It is expected to sustain business momentum amid the global economic slowdown while safeguarding macroeconomic stability. Falling prices for oil and various other commodities have eased domestic inflationary pressure, as reflected in the recent decline in the monthly inflation figure The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation underwent 0 04% deflation in December 2008 (m t m) which if measured annually
inflation figure. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation underwent 0.04% deflation in December 2008 (m-t-m) which if measured annually, inflation came to 11.06% (y-o-y), down from 11.68% in the preceding month. The easing of inflationary pressure is predicted to carry forward into 2009.
11.06 8 10 12 14 8.75 2 4 6 8 jan dec nov
sep aug july jun may apr mar feb jan dec nov
sep aug july jun may apr mar feb jan 2009 2008 2007 9
Source: Bank Indonesia, BPS.
CPI (%) (y-o-y) BI rate (%)
apr 120 apr 100 110 PHP MYR IDR SGD KRW THB THB : 96,26 MYR : 91,74 80 90 PHP : 82,54 SGD : 94,21 IDR : 78 60 60 70 KRW : 64,47 IDR : 78,60 depr Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 10
Source: Bank Indonesia, Bloomberg.
100 80 90 100 PHP MYR IDR % 50 60 70 SGD KRW THB IDR : 21.80 KRW : 18.45 20 30 40 PHP : 7.44 MYR :5.95 SGD : 7.44 THB : 1.44 10 20 Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08
11
Source: Bank Indonesia, Bloomberg.
300 60
US $ billion US $ billion
65000
US $ billion
200 250 300 40 50 60 Indonesia Philippines Korea (RHS) Thailand (RHS) Malaysia (RHS) 51,639 55000 60000 100 150 20 30
*
40000 45000 50000 50 ‐ 10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 30000 35000 40000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 25000 Jan Mar Mei Juli Sep Nov Jan Mar Mei Juli Sep Nov Jan Mar Mei Juli Sep Nov Jan Mar Mei Juli Sep Nov 2005 2006 2007 2008 12 12
Source: Bank Indonesia. *As of 31 December 2008.
and corporates by 2% and further 5% for listed companies
regions and relax tax tariffs for several sectors
import activities
expenditure if needed
f di i St t B d t g such as crude palm oil
trillion as counter-cyclical fiscal measure
(APBN) Law 2009 based on emergency conditions (GDP and other macroeconomic assumptions), SBN funding costs and banking systemic risk
f f industrial sectors which have greater impact on employment creation and poverty reduction
multilateral organizations
increase in fiscal risk due to deviation of the macroeconomic assumptions
reliance on financing from the capital markets
through private placement with sovereign wealth funds, international financial institutions and ASEAN+3 reliance on financing from the capital markets
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imports while increasing investment in exploration, production and refining
until 2025
and gas). On the regulatory front, BP Migas has putting effort into bringing a more transparent and efficient rules aimed to increase exploration and production
15
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources. Note: Coal for 10,000 MW + 3 million ton/year.
1) Exemption of import tariff of goods that will be used in upstream oil and gas or geothermal operation 2) Government coverage for Value Added Tax of imported goods that will be used in upstream oil and gas or geothermal operation 3) Reducing import tariff of drilling platform, floating production facilities or under water operation
1) Exemption from import duty and excise on the importation of capital goods and equipment including raw materials for the production process 2) Income tax incentives for investment in priority business lines and/or designated regions i.e. loss carry forward, accelerated depreciation 3) Import tariff reduction in the framework of ASEAN-KOREA FTA and EPA Indonesia-Japan ) p p
1) (Trans Java and JORR) – Government investment fund to finance land clearing through Toll Road Management Agency – Ministry of Public Works – Guarantee fund to anticipate risk of land’s price increase (above government price limit) 2) Power Plant Project 10.000 MW – Guarantee of PLN (State Electricity Coy) debt service obligations to creditors providing export credits with subject to certain conditions that has been stated in the Ministry of Finance regulation
– These policies are aimed at mitigating the impact of spiraling prices and bringing price stability. The staple goods covered by these policies are rice, cooking oil, soybeans, sugar and kerosene. A range of policy instruments are used: fiscal instruments, trading schemes and collaboration with the business community. The medium-term focus of these policies are increased crop production, unhampered distribution
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Government Securities Management
E h i k i f i l di d l f i d di l i d l
– Project loans will mainly come from multilateral and bilateral institutions (World Bank, ADB, IDB, JBIC, KfW) to finance certain project/activities (infrastructure’s rehabilitation and development) carried out by line ministries, and to on-lend them to state own enterprises and regional governments
Loan Management
( p ) y p g g – Program loans from World Bank, ADB, and JBIC to support the improvement of quality of policy reform
g p g , g – conversion of currency pool loan (CPL) and single currency pool debt (SCPD) into LIBOR based/fixed rate loan, while considering the market condition; – Focusing on fixed spread loan/FSL (for the World bank loan) with an option conversion into IDR loan; – Conducting debt restructuring debt swap
19
Source: Ministry of Finance.
6.3% p.a., mainly supported by rising household consumption and exports. The economy continued to generate a relatively high growth rate in Q3 2008, grew by 6.1% (Y-o-Y) mainly supported by non-tradable sectors (construction, utilities and trade). In line with weaker global economic outlook, the economic growth in
the forthcoming quarters is predicted to slow down. Domestic demand will become the main driver of economic growth amid weaker export performance
been facing a strong inflationary pressures caused by higher energy, food, and other commodity prices in both the world and domestic markets as well as increase in domestic demand. Starting the end of June 2008, the National Statistic Bureau changed the baseline from 2002 to 2007 for CPI calculation. The annual rate of inflation as of December 2008 reached 11.06% (Y-o-Y).
2008, even though the financial market turmoil had begun since end of 2007. High international commodity prices support strong balance of payments reinforces Indonesia’s external balances and stability of the rupiah. In the second half of 2008, concern on USD liquidity problems due to the global financial crises has lead the rupiah depreciated because of foreign investor deleveraging from domestic market. During the period, rupiah depreciated 21.6% against the USD, to Rp11,975 per USD at November 18, 2008
FINANCIAL SYSTEM: Stability remained sound during 2007. Banks intermediary function and NPL showed considerable improvement. Credit expansion for the year increased to 25.5%, well ahead of the 22% target. During the three quarters of 2008, the overall CAR is well maintained at 16.5% per September 2008, and credit risk is mitigated as NPL eased to 3.9% (gross) by end of September 2008. Bank intermediary function has been steadily flourishing as reflected in LDR which reached 80.4% in September 2008. Banking industry continues to perform well
During the first three quarters of 2008, strong economic growth and the onset of decline in world commodity prices led to changes in performance of the balance
The current account began to record a deficit as a result of continued strength of imports In a similar
vein, the capital and financial account sustained pressure from the shift in investor interest in response to the turbulence on global financial markets. As such, in preliminary figures, the capital and financial account recorded yet another surplus in Q3/2008. In the final outcome, international reserves reached USD50.6 billion, equivalent to 4 months of imports and servicing of official debt (31 Oct 2008) 21
Source: Bank Indonesia.
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Source: Bank Indonesia.
1) Adjustment of Bank Reserve Requirements – The Reserve Requirement (RR) was loosened to provide flexibility for banks to manage their liquidity and thus avoiding liquidity to
A reduction of effective Rupiah RR rate from 9,01% to 7,5% comprising of
y y y 2) Extension of swap transactions period (from 7 days to 1 month) – The transaction period is extended to increase effectiveness of open market operations in the foreign exchange market and anticipate shocks in the global financial market 3) New regulations on foreign exchange transactions 3) New regulations on foreign exchange transactions – The regulation aims to lessen pressures on the rupiah by providing certainty in availability of foreign exchange for domestic corporations in need of foreign exchange for productive and non-speculative purposes 4) Adjustment to existing regulation on short-term foreign loans – To help bank’s manage their liquidity banks no longer are to limit their short-term foreign loan daily balances to 30% of To help bank s manage their liquidity, banks no longer are to limit their short term foreign loan daily balances to 30% of their capital 5) Adjustments to current regulation on Bank Indonesia short-term Funding Facility (FPJP) – BI increases access to banks in utilizing BI’s short-term Funding Facility (FPJP) for banks encountering liquidity problems
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Source: Bank Indonesia.
I II III IV Total I II III IV Total I II III 2007** 2006* 2008*** Consumption 3.8 5.6 2.8 3.5 3.9 4.6 4.6 5.3 5.1 4.9 5.5 5.5 6.7 Private 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.8 3.2 4.7 4.7 5.1 5.6 5.0 5.7 5.5 5.3 Government 11.5 28.8 1.7 2.2 9.6 3.7 3.8 6.5 2.0 3.9 3.6 5.5 16.9 Investment 1.4 0.9 0.8 6.8 2.5 7.0 6.9 10.4 12.1 9.2 15.6 13.1 12.0 Domestic demand 4 3 1 9 2 2 4 5 3 2 0 8 3 4 4 4 9 6 4 2 8 5 8 4 7 6 Domestic demand 4.3 1.9 2.2 4.5 3.2
3.4 4.4 9.6 4.2 8.5 8.4 7.6 Export of goods and services 11.8 11.4 8.3 6.6 9.4 8.1 9.8 6.9 7.3 8.0 15.5 15.9 14.3 Import of goods and services 4.8 9.3 10.9 9.2 8.6 8.5 6.5 7.0 13.6 8.9 17.8 16.7 11.9 Gross Domestic Product 5.1 5.0 5.9 6.0 5.5 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.1
– In 2007, Indonesian economy achieved strong economic expansion; the economy grew at the level of 6.3% supported by rising consumption and export. Specifically in Q4 2007, private consumption growth outpaces the 2001–06 average of 3.9%. During Q1-Q3/2008 the economy was able to maintain a strong growth on the back of exports, investment, and consumption Growth of household consumption in Q1 Q3/2008 reached 5 5%(Y o Y) Household consumption growth remains strong on the – Growth of household consumption in Q1-Q3/2008 reached 5,5%(Y-o-Y). Household consumption growth remains strong on the back of high purchasing power and lower interest rate – Investment (gross fixed capital formation) saw more vigorous growth compared to last year. The high investment growth was due to high export and consumption growth, lower interest rate, and stability of the rupiah – Export of goods and services showed outstanding performance in response to rising commodities prices
24 24
Source: Bank Indonesia.
pressures, the yearly inflation beginning to decline in November 2008.
5 1 8 2 0 M t m ( S B H 2 0 0 7 )
% , m t m % , y o y
2.46
3 4 5 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 t ( S 0 0 ) Y o Y ( R H S )
T e r u t a m a b e r s u m b e r d a r i d m p k 1 s t r o u n d p e n u r u n a n h a r g a B B M
2 4 M e i, H a r g a B B M b e r s u b s id i r a t a 2 m e n in g k a t
S b g n b e s a r d m p k f ir s t & s e c o n d r o u n d k e n a ik a n h a r g a B B M b b id i r a t a 2
1.21 .55 9 8 8 47 5 0.76 1.04 1.22 43 0.59 0.56 0.71 0.78 .52 1.65 0.71 0.85 1.24 2 1.37 .51 0.97 45
1 1 .0 6 2 3 6 8 1 0
P a n e n
P e r g e s e r a n P a n e n
r a t a 2 m e n in g k a t 2 8 ,7 % 0.09 0.12 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.35 0.30 0.4 0.18
0.11 0.19 0.21 0. 0.26 0. 0.4 0.12
1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2 4
25 25
Source: Bank Indonesia.
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8
26 26
Source: Bank Indonesia.
20
14 16 18
8 10 12
2 4 6
jan nov sep july may mar jan nov sep july may mar jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 CPI (%) (y-o-y) BI rate (%) 27
Source: Bank Indonesia, BPS.
28
Source: Bank Indonesia.
2 0
% , m t m % , y o y
46
4 5 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 M t m ( S B H 2 0 0 7 ) Y o Y ( R H S )
T e r u t a m a b e r s u m b e r d a r i d m p k 1 s t r o u n d p e n u r u n a n h a r g a B B M
2 4 M e i , H a r g a B B M b e r s u b s i d i
S b g n b e s a r d m p k f ir s t & s e c o n d r o u n d k e n a ik a n h a r g a B B M b b id i r a t a 2
1.21 55 9 8 8 47 5 0.76 1.04 1.22 3 .59 .56 0.71 0.78 52 1.65 0.71 0.85 1.24 2.4 1.37 51 0.97 45
1 1 . 0 6 2 3 6 8 1 0
P a n e n
P e r g e s e r a n P a n e n
r a t a 2 m e n i n g k a t 2 8 , 7 % 0. 0.09 0.12 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.4 0.35 0.30 0.4 0.18
0.11 0.19 0. 0.21 0.5 0.26 0.5 0.4 0.12
1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2 4
P a n e n
29
Source: Bank Indonesia.
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8
21 22 23 8 9 10
45 50 Working Capital
15 16 17 18 19 20 3 4 5 6 7 CAR NPL Gross (RHS)
30 35 40 Working Capital Investment Consumption
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 60 65 70 75 80 85 NIM LDR (RHS)
10 15 20 25
0.3 0.4 Jan- 05 May- 05 Sep- 05 Jan- 06 May- 06 Sep- 06 Jan- 07 May- 07 Sep- 07 Jan- 08 May- 08 Sep- 08 45 50 55 60
5 2005 jul 2006 jul 2007 jul 2008 jul
improve as shown by high credit growth (34.6%, Y-o-Y) accompanied by low NPL ratio (gross NPL ratio reached 3.9%). High credit growth combined with lower deposits growth lead to LDR of 80.4%
NPL ti h li htl d li d f 3 4% (J l ) t 3 3% (A t) NPL ratio has slightly declined from 3.4% (July) to 3.3% (August)
30
Source: Bank Indonesia.
31
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Total Assets (T Rp) 1,272.3 1,469.8 1,693.5 1,986.5 1,940.3 1,940.7 1,944.7 1,949.3 1,972.5 2,040.9 2,057.1 2,066.6 2,122.6 Deposits (T Rp) 963.1 1,127.9 1,287.0 1,510.7 1,471.2 1,474.5 1,466.2 1,481.8 1,505.6 1,553.4 1,532.9 1,528.1 1,601.4
245.7 281.4 338.0 405.5 379.7 374.6 379.7 378.0 392.4 409.0 404.5 386.4 395.4 Main Indicator Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Total Assets (T Rp) 1,272.3 1,469.8 1,693.5 1,986.5 1,940.3 1,940.7 1,944.7 1,949.3 1,972.5 2,040.9 2,057.1 2,066.6 2,122.6 Deposits (T Rp) 963.1 1,127.9 1,287.0 1,510.7 1,471.2 1,474.5 1,466.2 1,481.8 1,505.6 1,553.4 1,532.9 1,528.1 1,601.4
245.7 281.4 338.0 405.5 379.7 374.6 379.7 378.0 392.4 409.0 404.5 386.4 395.4 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Total Assets (T Rp) 1,272.3 1,469.8 1,693.5 1,986.5 1,940.3 1,940.7 1,944.7 1,949.3 1,972.5 2,040.9 2,057.1 2,066.6 2,122.6 Deposits (T Rp) 963.1 1,127.9 1,287.0 1,510.7 1,471.2 1,474.5 1,466.2 1,481.8 1,505.6 1,553.4 1,532.9 1,528.1 1,601.4
245.7 281.4 338.0 405.5 379.7 374.6 379.7 378.0 392.4 409.0 404.5 386.4 395.4 Main Indicator Main Indicator
296.4 281.5 333.9 438.5 429.3 430.1 428.0 434.1 440.5 457.4 453.6 450.9 459.1
421.0 565.0 615.1 666.7 662.2 669.7 658.5 669.7 672.7 687.0 674.7 690.9 746.8 Earning Assets (T Rp) 1,146.8 1,353.2 1,556.2 1,792.0 1,776.6 1,784.0 1,786.0 1,794.2 1,816.0 1,875.6 1,856.9 1,867.1 1,950.3
595.1 730.2 832.9 1,045.7 1,031.1 1,045.9 1,080.1 1,103.1 1,137.7 1,190.0 1,210.9 1,246.6 1,287.4
94.1 54.3 179.0 203.9 231.4 211.2 162.1 169.35 148.73 113.66 95.51 84.53 87.70
36.8 53.1 38.6 46.8 9.6 6.7 21.0 25.5 27.6 39.0 21.8 13.5 55.1
296.4 281.5 333.9 438.5 429.3 430.1 428.0 434.1 440.5 457.4 453.6 450.9 459.1
421.0 565.0 615.1 666.7 662.2 669.7 658.5 669.7 672.7 687.0 674.7 690.9 746.8 Earning Assets (T Rp)
296.4 281.5 333.9 438.5 429.3 430.1 428.0 434.1 440.5 457.4 453.6 450.9 459.1
421.0 565.0 615.1 666.7 662.2 669.7 658.5 669.7 672.7 687.0 674.7 690.9 746.8 Earning Assets (T Rp) 1,146.8 1,353.2 1,556.2 1,792.0 1,776.6 1,784.0 1,786.0 1,794.2 1,816.0 1,875.6 1,856.9 1,867.1 1,950.3
595.1 730.2 832.9 1,045.7 1,031.1 1,045.9 1,080.1 1,103.1 1,137.7 1,190.0 1,210.9 1,246.6 1,287.4
94.1 54.3 179.0 203.9 231.4 211.2 162.1 169.35 148.73 113.66 95.51 84.53 87.70
36.8 53.1 38.6 46.8 9.6 6.7 21.0 25.5 27.6 39.0 21.8 13.5 55.1 1,146.8 1,353.2 1,556.2 1,792.0 1,776.6 1,784.0 1,786.0 1,794.2 1,816.0 1,875.6 1,856.9 1,867.1 1,950.3
595.1 730.2 832.9 1,045.7 1,031.1 1,045.9 1,080.1 1,103.1 1,137.7 1,190.0 1,210.9 1,246.6 1,287.4
94.1 54.3 179.0 203.9 231.4 211.2 162.1 169.35 148.73 113.66 95.51 84.53 87.70
36.8 53.1 38.6 46.8 9.6 6.7 21.0 25.5 27.6 39.0 21.8 13.5 55.1 ( p)
348.1 350.5 342.9 350.2 347.0 348.7 353.9 347.9 351.3 352.4 348.3 349.7 350.3
103.5 159.1 156.8 139.8 151.7 165.6 162.9 142.6 144.7 174.5 174.3 166.5 163.5
6.2 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 NII (T Rp) 6.3 6.2 7.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 9.0 8.6 8.9 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.3 CAR (%) 19.36 19.5 20.5 19.3 20.1 19.2 18.6 18.4 17.1 16.4 16.2 16.0 16.5 Loans/Earning Assets (%) 51 89 54 0 53 5 58 4 58 0 58 6 60 5 61 5 62 6 63 4 65 2 66 8 66 0 ( p)
348.1 350.5 342.9 350.2 347.0 348.7 353.9 347.9 351.3 352.4 348.3 349.7 350.3
103.5 159.1 156.8 139.8 151.7 165.6 162.9 142.6 144.7 174.5 174.3 166.5 163.5
6.2 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 NII (T Rp) 6.3 6.2 7.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 9.0 8.6 8.9 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.3 CAR (%) 19.36 19.5 20.5 19.3 20.1 19.2 18.6 18.4 17.1 16.4 ( p)
348.1 350.5 342.9 350.2 347.0 348.7 353.9 347.9 351.3 352.4 348.3 349.7 350.3
103.5 159.1 156.8 139.8 151.7 165.6 162.9 142.6 144.7 174.5 174.3 166.5 163.5
6.2 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 NII (T Rp) 6.3 6.2 7.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 9.0 8.6 8.9 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.3 CAR (%) 19.36 19.5 20.5 19.3 20.1 19.2 18.6 18.4 17.1 16.4 16.2 16.0 16.5 Loans/Earning Assets (%) 51 89 54 0 53 5 58 4 58 0 58 6 60 5 61 5 62 6 63 4 65 2 66 8 66 0 16.2 16.0 16.5 Loans/Earning Assets (%) 51 89 54 0 53 5 58 4 58 0 58 6 60 5 61 5 62 6 63 4 65 2 66 8 66 0 Loans/Earning Assets (%) 51.89 54.0 53.5 58.4 58.0 58.6 60.5 61.5 62.6 63.4 65.2 66.8 66.0 NPLs Gross (%) 5.75 8.3 7.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 NPLs net (%) 1.72 4.8 3.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 ROA (%) 3.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 NIM (NII/AP) (%) 0.55 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Op.Cost/Op.Income (%) 76.69 87.7 86.4 78.8 79.4 78.7 79.7 81.3 80.7 80.9 79.5 79.3 79.7 LDR (%) 61 8 64 7 64 7 69 2 70 1 70 9 73 7 74 4 75 6 76 6 79 0 81 6 80 4 Loans/Earning Assets (%) 51.89 54.0 53.5 58.4 58.0 58.6 60.5 61.5 62.6 63.4 65.2 66.8 66.0 NPLs Gross (%) 5.75 8.3 7.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 NPLs net (%) 1.72 4.8 3.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 ROA (%) 3.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 NIM (NII/AP) (%) 0.55 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Loans/Earning Assets (%) 51.89 54.0 53.5 58.4 58.0 58.6 60.5 61.5 62.6 63.4 65.2 66.8 66.0 NPLs Gross (%) 5.75 8.3 7.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 NPLs net (%) 1.72 4.8 3.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 ROA (%) 3.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 NIM (NII/AP) (%) 0.55 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Op.Cost/Op.Income (%) 76.69 87.7 86.4 78.8 79.4 78.7 79.7 81.3 80.7 80.9 79.5 79.3 79.7 LDR (%) 61 8 64 7 64 7 69 2 70 1 70 9 73 7 74 4 75 6 76 6 79 0 81 6 80 4 0.5 Op.Cost/Op.Income (%) 76.69 87.7 86.4 78.8 79.4 78.7 79.7 81.3 80.7 80.9 79.5 79.3 79.7 LDR (%) 61 8 64 7 64 7 69 2 70 1 70 9 73 7 74 4 75 6 76 6 79 0 81 6 80 4 LDR (%) 61.8 64.7 64.7 69.2 70.1 70.9 73.7 74.4 75.6 76.6 79.0 81.6 80.4 Liquid Assets/TA (%) 14.95 15.8 22.0 23.0 21.5 19.9 18.3 18.5 17.4 16.0 14.1 12.7 15.3 Core Deposits/TA (%) 0.53 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Number of Banks 133 131 130 130 128 128 128 128 128 127 127 125 126 Number of Banks Branches 7,939 8,236 9,110 9,680 9,726 9,888 9,926 10,072 10,060 10,153 10,290 10,432 10,556 LDR (%) 61.8 64.7 64.7 69.2 70.1 70.9 73.7 74.4 75.6 76.6 79.0 81.6 80.4 Liquid Assets/TA (%) 14.95 15.8 22.0 23.0 21.5 19.9 18.3 18.5 17.4 16.0 14.1 12.7 15.3 Core Deposits/TA (%) 0.53 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Number of Banks 133 131 130 130 128 128 128 128 128 127 127 125 126 Number of Banks Branches 7,939 8,236 9,110 9,680 9,726 9,888 9,926 10,072 10,060 10,153 10,290 10,432 10,556 LDR (%) 61.8 64.7 64.7 69.2 70.1 70.9 73.7 74.4 75.6 76.6 79.0 81.6 80.4 Liquid Assets/TA (%) 14.95 15.8 22.0 23.0 21.5 19.9 18.3 18.5 17.4 16.0 14.1 12.7 15.3 Core Deposits/TA (%) 0.53 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Number of Banks 133 131 130 130 128 128 128 128 128 127 127 125 126 Number of Banks Branches 7,939 8,236 9,110 9,680 9,726 9,888 9,926 10,072 10,060 10,153 10,290 10,432 10,556 32 32
Source: Bank Indonesia.
33
Source: Bank Indonesia.
34
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Current Developm ents in Q3 2 0 0 8
Indonesia's BOP
45 000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 1 000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Million USD Million USD
20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
1,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008**
Current Acc. Cap & Fin Acc.
36
Source: Bank Indonesia
T ade Balance Non Oil & Gas Trade Balance: Non-Oil & Gas
Trade Balance Non Oil & Gas
30,000 40,000
Milllion USD
10 000 10,000 20,000 ,
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008**
Export Non Oil & Gas Import non Oil & Gas
37
Source: Bank Indonesia
Trade Balance Non Oil & Gas
T ade Balance Oil & Gas Trade Balance: Oil & Gas
3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Trade Balance Oil & Gas
Million USD
1,000 2,000
3,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008**
Trade Balance Oil Trade Balance Gas
38
Source: Bank Indonesia
Services I ncom e and Current Transfers
Services, I ncom e, and Current Transfers
Million USD
Services, Incomes & Current Transfers
1,000 2,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008**
39
Source: Bank Indonesia Services, Net Income, Net Current Transfer, Net
Fi i l A t
Financial Account
2000 3000 4000 Million USD
Financial Account
1000
Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investment Financial Account
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008**
40
Source: Bank Indonesia
5,000
Foreign Portfolio Investment
Million
8 000
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Million USD
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 , 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008**
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008**
Equity, net Debt Securities, net Total
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Inflow (Equity & Loan Disb) Outflow (Debt Repayment) Total
41
Source: Bank Indonesia
No. Purpose Policy 1 Maintain sustainability of Balance of Payment Mandate all State Owned Enterprise (SoE) to place all foreign currency reserves in domestic bank. Foreign i d ti b k I l i h S E i bli d t t i f ti f i
10 Policies by the Government to Bolster Balance of Payment
currency reserves in domestic bank. In one clearing house, SoE is obliged to report information on foreign currency income and needs to Ministry of SoE which transaction will be processed through SoE banks weekly and updated daily 2 Maintain sustainability of Balance of Payment and accelerate infrastructure developments Speed up implementation of projects with financing commitments from bilateral or multilateral cooperation 3 M i t i li idit t bilit d id i I t t S E t t f d b k 3 Maintain liquidity stability and avoid price war Instruct SoE to not move funds among banks 4 Maintain trust of market players on SUN by stabilizing SUN market Government together with BI to purchase SUN from secondary market. Buyback SUN will be done periodically with measured amount 5 Maintain sustainability of Balance of Payment Exercise bilateral swaps arrangement from Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea, and Bank of China, if necessary 6 Maintain sustainability of export by providing Issuance of re-discount export L/C with recourse y p y p g post-shipment guarantees p 7 Maintain sustainability of economy (real sector) Eliminate CPO export duty to 0% 8 Maintain sustainability for Fiscal 2009 Steps to maintain sustainability of State Budget 2009 will be announce upon DPR approval in the next 2 days. 9 Pre ent Illegal Imports a P blish a pro ision on partic lar commodit import garment electronics food and be erage to s shoes 9 Prevent Illegal Imports
can only be imported by registered importer and obliged to be verified at shipping dock/harbor;
Perak, Belawan, Bandara Sukarno-Hatta and specified commodity: garment, electronics, food and beverage, toys, shoes) 10 I i i fl f d S t i t t d i t i i t i l t k f 42 10 Increase supervision on flow of goods Set up integrated inter-ministerial task force
Source: Bank Indonesia.
44
1 0% 1 0% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Revised 2008 Budget 2008 Outlook 2009 Budget
1 0% 1 0% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Revised 2008 Budget 2008 Outlook 2009 Budget
0.5%
0.5%
Source: Ministry of Finance.
45
2008 Revised B d t O tl k 2009 B d t I R t illi Revised B d t O tl k 2009 B d t
Budget Outlook 2009 Budget GDP Growth (%) 6.4 6.3 6.0 Inflation (%) 6.5 12.5 6.2 Exchange Rate (US$/IDR) 9,100 9,606 9,400 3 Month SBI Rate (%) 7.5 9.1 7.5 In Rp trillion Budget Outlook 2009 Budget
895.0 950.1 985.7
892.0 948.0 984.8 (i) Tax Revenue 609.2 642.8 725.8 (ii) Non-tax Revenue 282.8 305.2 258.9 B Total Expenditures 989 5 1 001 5 1 037 1 Crude Oil Price (US$/Bbl) 927 933 960 Crude Oil Production (000 Bbl/day) 95 100.5 80 Fuel Consumption (mm KL) 38.0 39.3 36.8
989.5 1,001.5 1,037.1
697.1 706.9 716.5 (i) Ministry / Agency 290.0 261.0 322.3 (ii) Non-Ministry / Agency 407.0 446.9 394.2 Interest Payments 94.8 93.1 101.7 Subsidies 234 4 268 2 166 7 Subsidies 234.4 268.2 166.7 – Energy 187.1 213.2 103.6 – Non-Energy 47.3 55.0 63.1
292.4 294.6 320.5
(94.5) (51.4) (51.3) % of GDP (2 1%) (1 1%) (1 0%)
% of GDP (2.1%) (1.1%) (1.0%)
94.5 61.6 51.3
107.6 73.4 60.8
117.8 86.4 54.7
(13.1) (11.8) (9.4)
26 4 31 3 26 4
26.4 31.3 26.4
Source: Ministry of Finance.
46
Description (IDR tn) 2008 Revised Budget Realized Oct 29 % to Revised Budget
894.9 762.4 85.2
892.0 761.4 85.4
609.2 536.7 88.1
282.8 224.7 79.4
2.9 1.0 35.1
989.4 697.0 70.4
697.0 479.3 68.8
290.0 169.0 68.3 B N Mi i /I i i E di 40 310 3 6 2
407.0 310.3 76.2 a.1 – Interest payment 94.8 71.3 75.3 – Subsidies 234.4 183.6 78.3 – Oil (Pertamina) 126.8 106.0 83.6 – Electricity (PLN) 60.3 49.1 81.5 N b idi 47 3 28 5 60 2 – Non-energy subsidies 47.3 28.5 60.2 – Other expenditures 32.1 21.3 66.5
292.4 217.8 74.5
278.4 209.3 75.2
77.7 49.2 63.3 b General Allocation Fund 179 5 149 6 83 3
179.5 149.6 83.3
21.2 10.5 49.6
14.0 8.5 60.6
(94.5) 65.4 (69.2) % deficit to GDP (2.1) D Financing 94 5 91 3 96 6
94.5 91.3 96.6
107.6 113.7 105.6
(13.1) (22.4) 170.7
Source: Ministry of Finance.
47
Net Issuance Realization as of November 13, 2008
2008 Iss ance Program IDR tn
2008 Issuance Program IDR tn Original Budget 2008 Government Securities Net Financing 91.6 Revised Budget 2008 G S
Government Securities Net Financing 117.8 Redemption + Buyback (1) (40.2) Net Realization (13 November 2008) 102.2 Gross Issuance: 126.2
Coupon GDS(2) 46.5 Retail bonds 16.2 Zero coupon GDS(2) 19.5 Domestic Sukuk 4.7
International bonds 39.3 Redemption + Buyback (24.0) Target up to end of FY2008, net 15.6 Source: Ministry of Finance.
Source: Ministry of Finance. 1. Redemption and buyback amount is subject to change. 2. GDS stands for Government Debt Securities (SUN).
48
Source: Ministry of Finance. (1) Very Preliminary. (2) Preliminary. (3) Based on State Budget 2009.
50
with the following key measures: – Overall Balance (deficit) should be less than 3% of GDP, and – Total Debt to GDP ratio should be less than 60%.
88 77 80 90 100
80% 90% 100%
67 61 56 47 39 33 35 40 50 60 70 80 53% 52% 54% 53% 50% 50% 53% 53% 52%
% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
10 20 30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
(1) (2) (3)
47% 48% 46% 47% 50% 50% 47% 47% 48%
0% 10% 20% 30%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007** 2008***
(1) (2) (3)
(1) Preliminary. (2) Very Preliminary. (3) Projection based on State Budget 2007 Preliminary Realization. (4) Projection based on State Budget 2008. Notes: (1) Preliminary. (2) Very preliminary, as of December 2007.
External Debt Domestic Debt
51
Source: Ministry of Finance.
10 12
billions $
10 12
billions $
10 12
billions $
10 12
billions $
8 10 8 10 8 10 8 10 6 2 4 2 4 2 4 2 4 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 4 2 3 5 2 3 6 2 3 7 2 3 8 2 3 9 4
5 5 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 4 2 3 5 2 3 6 2 3 7 2 3 8 2 3 9 4
5 5 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 4 2 3 5 2 3 6 2 3 7 2 3 8 2 3 9 4
5 5 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 4 2 3 5 2 3 6 2 3 7 2 3 8 2 3 9 4
5 5
52
Source: Ministry of Finance.
2 4 LOAN SECURITIES 2 4 LOAN SECURITIES 2 4 LOAN SECURITIES 2 4 LOAN SECURITIES
IDR tn % of GDP
117.8 2.1 150 2 0 2.5 6.9 22.6 36.0 57.2 54.7 (10 3) (9 4) 42.0 (1.2) 20.0 9.1 (10 2) 6.1 1.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.0 50 100 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
D d f t b d ill b d d d t d i i t i t t
(28.1) (10.3) (26.6) (23.9) (13.1) (9.4) (10.2) (50) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0.0 Gov't Securities - net (LHS) External Loan, net (LHS) Others/Non-Debt, net (LHS) Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
(1) (2)
– A decline in investor interest from the US and Europe, which are the largest buyers (65%) of Indonesian global bonds – Foreign investors will also reduce the purchase of rupiah bonds – Banks, the primary buyer of government bonds, needs to maintain sufficient liquidity
Obtain alternative financing from bilateral and multilateral organizations and institutional investors – The availability of loan programs (such as from IMF) to finance the deficit – The demand of the issuance of Sukuk remains strong – Private placement with bilateral agencies, international Financial Institutions and sovereign wealth fund – Standby financing facilities amounting to USD5 billion are arranged with bilateral and multilateral organizations for the next two years
(1) Projection based on revised budget 2008. (2) Projection based on 2009 state budget, Others/Non-Debt include privatization and other sources.
53
60.77 58.79 63.76 68.91 68.10 63.09 62.02 62.25 42.2% 2003 2004 2000 2001 2002 2005 2007
+
% to Total 2006
In billion USD
Bilateral *) 36.23 35.06 40.40 46.23 46.01 42.16 41.07 41.03 27.8% Multilateral **) 20.65 20.69 20.61 19.96 19.46 18.78 18.84 19.05 12.9% Commercial ***) 3.05 2.40 2.20 2.19 2.17 1.82 2.01 2.08 1.4% Suppliers ***) 0.69 0.48 0.39 0.37 0.29 0.17 0.11 0.08 0.1% Suppliers ) 0.69 0.48 0.39 0.37 0.29 0.17 0.11 0.08 0.1% Bonds/Notes ***) 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
67.27 63.16 73.64 76.80 71.28 70.89 82.34 85.26 57.8% FX Denominated
3.50 5.50 7.00 4.7%
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Rupiah Denominated 67.27 63.16 73.64 76.80 70.28 67.39 76.84 78.26 53.1% Total Government Debt 128.04 121.95 137.41 145.71 139.38 133.98 144.36 147.51
Notes: + Preliminary numbers. ++ Very preliminary numbers, as of December 2007. * Some of them are semi commercial. ** Most of them are semi concessional. *** All of them are commercial.
54
In billion USD
Source: Ministry of Finance. Notes: + Preliminary numbers. ++ Very preliminary numbers.
55
* Some of them are semi commercial. ** Most of them are semi concessional. *** All of them are commercial.
100% 47% 50% 50% 47% 46% 75% 50% 53% 50% 50% 53% 54% 25% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Domestic Debt External Debt
56
Source: Ministry of Finance. Note: Exchange rate of Rp.9,034 per US$ used for 2007.
Holders of Tradable Domestic Government Securities
60
Developments in the Domestic Market
3% 13% 16% 18% 50
25% 17% 21% 24% 26% 3% 8% 30 40
72% 75% 66% 59% 56% 10 20
10 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 May-08
57
Banks Non-Banks Foreign Holders Source: Ministry of Finance. New Syariah instruments expected to be launched in 2008 in the form of Sukuk.
75
76
77
78
79
80 g
81
82 9 Ownership of Foreign Holder 83
83
84
85
86
87
88
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Domestic Market Fixed Coupon Tenor 8 years 7–9 years 7–10 years 2–15 years 2–20 years 3–30 years 2–30 years (1) Auction Method Bookbuilding √ – – – – – – Open Auction – √ √ √ √ √ √ Issuance Method New Issuance √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Reopening – √ √ √ √ √ √ Frequency 1 time/year 4 times/year 9 times/year 10 times/year 10 times/year 17 times 12 times (1) Frequency 1 time/year 4 times/year 9 times/year 10 times/year 10 times/year 17 times 12 times Primary Market Weighted Average Yield (WAY) [%] 14.67 12.42 11.24 11.14 11.45 9.73 11.17 Retail Bonds(ORI) – – – – √ √ √ Treasury Bills (SPN) – – – – – √ √ Z C (ZC) √ √ Zero Coupon (ZC) – – – – – √ √ Sukuk (SBSN) – – – – – –
(2)
International Market Tenor – – 10 years 10 & 30 years 10 & 30 years 30 years 10&30 years A i M h d Auction Method Bookbuilding – – √ √ √ √ √ Open Auction – – – – – – – Issuance Method New Issuance – – √ √ √ √ √ Reopening – – – – √ – √
60
(1) up to 26 June 2008. (2) will be issue on August 2008.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
GOVERNMENT DEBT SECURITIES (GDS) Des'06 Dec '07 Jun '08 Sep '08 Oct '08 10 Nov '08
IDR - IDR 14,669 IDR 24,273 IDR 27,280 IDR 27,280 IDR 27,280
IDR - IDR 4,169 IDR 5,250 IDR 10,012 IDR 10,012 IDR 10,012
IDR - IDR 10,500 IDR 19,023 IDR 17,268 IDR 17,268 IDR 17,268 Government Domestic Bonds
IDR 238,565 IDR 294,453 IDR 330,338 IDR 354,948 IDR 354,948 IDR 354,907
IDR 180,187 IDR 168,625 IDR 165,617 IDR 154,772 IDR 154,772 IDR 154,772
IDR 418,751 IDR 477,747 IDR 520,228 IDR 537,000 IDR 537,000 IDR 536,959
IDR 274,367 IDR 259,404 IDR 258,208 IDR 258,208 IDR 258,208 IDR 258,208
IDR 693,118 IDR 737,151 IDR 778,436 IDR 795,209 IDR 795,209 IDR 795,168
USD 5,500 USD 7,000 USD 11,200 USD 11,200 USD 11,200 USD 11,200
IDR 742,728 IDR 803,084 IDR 881,756 IDR 900,242 IDR 918,353 IDR 918,312 GOVERNMENT ISLAMIC DEBT SECURITIES (GIDS) GOVERNMENT ISLAMIC DEBT SECURITIES (GIDS) Government Domestic Islamic Bonds
IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700
IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700
IDR 742,728 IDR 803,084 IDR 881,756 IDR 904,942 IDR 923,052 IDR 923,011 ( ) Notes:
IDR 3,284 IDR 18,885 IDR 32,070 IDR 34,699 IDR 34,699 IDR 34,699
( D 2006) ( D 2007) (30 J '08) (26 S '08) (31 O t '08) (10 N '08)
61
(e.o Dec 2006) (e.o Dec 2007) (30 Jun '08) (26 Sep '08) (31 Oct '08) (10 Nov '08)
IDR 9,020 IDR 9,419 IDR 9,225 IDR 9,378 IDR 10,995 IDR 10,995
debt securities has been issued is reaching to IDR 86,93 trillion
Auction Date Series Settlement Date Maturity Coupon WAY/ WAP Target Total Bids Total Accepted Bids to Accepted
Total 2007 47,000,000 205,057,495 86,379,695 2.3 22-Jan-08 FR0046 (Reopening) 24-Jan-08 15-Jul-23 9.50% 10.55% 2,218,000 1,100,000 2.02 FR0050 24-Jan-08 15-Jul-38 10.50% 10.81% 1,448,000 1,200,000 1.21 5,000,000 FR0050 24 Jan 08 15 Jul 38 10.50% 10.81% 1,448,000 1,200,000 1.21 29-Jan-08 ZC0004 31-Jan-08 20-Feb-10
6,081,000 2,750,000 2.21 ZC0005 31-Jan-08 20-Feb-13
2,671,000 950,000 2.81 12-Feb-08 FR0048 (Reopening1) 14-Feb-08 15-Sep-18 9.00% 10.10% 1,175,000 300,000 3.92 FR0049 14-Feb-08 15-Sep-13 9.00% 9.25% 4,742,000 750,000 6.32 19-Feb-08 ZC0004 (Reopening) 21-Feb-08 20-Feb-10
3,825,000 3,650,000 1.05 ZC0005 (Reopening) 21-Feb-08 20-Feb-13
2,705,000 2,200,000 1.23 4-Mar-08 FR0027 (Reopening 1) 6-Mar-08 15-Jun-15 9.50% 9.77% 3,930,400 1,800,000 2.18 FR0048 (Reopening 2) 6-Mar-08 15-Sep-18 9.00% 10.37% 1,168,600 200,000 5.84 12-Mar-08 ORI004 (Retail Bonds) 12-Mar-08 12-Mar-12 9.50% 9.50%
13,455,765 1.00 25-Mar-08 ZC0004 (Reopening 2) 27-Mar-08 20-Feb-10
1,839,000
FR0049 (Reopening 1) 17-Apr-08 15-Sep-13 9.00%
3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 15 Apr 08 FR0049 (Reopening 1) 17 Apr 08 15 Sep 13 9.00% 2,778,300 VR0032 17-Apr-08 25-Apr-11 7.83% 100.00 3,671,000 3,000,000 1.22 29-Apr-08 SPN20090430 2-May-08 30-Apr-09
1,000,000 1,000,000 1.00 ZC0004 2-May-08 20-Feb-10
FR0049 (Reopening 2) 15-May-08 15-Sep-13 9.00% 12.30% 6,347,000 4,500,000 1.41 VR0032 (Reopening 1) 15-May-08 25-Apr-11 8.04% 100.00 2,365,000 2,000,000 1.18 27-May-08 SPN20090430 29-May-08 30-Apr-09
3,195,000 1,900,000 1.68 ZC0004 29-May-08 20-Feb-10
29-May-08 15-Jul-23 9.50% 12.87% 8,652,000 7,050,000 1.23 10-Jun-08 FR0049 (Reopening 3) 12-Jun-08 15-Sep-13 9.00%
12-Jun-08 15-Sep-18 9.00% 13.41% 2,101,000 1,000,000 2.10 FR0047 (Reopening 3) 12-Jun-08 15-Feb-28 10.00% 13.59% 4,107,000 2,000,000 2.05 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 ( p g ) % % , , , , 24-Jun-08 SPN20090430 26-Jun-08 30-Apr-09
4,820,000 2,350,000 2.05 FR0027 (Reopening 2) 26-Jun-08 15-Jun-15 9.50%
26-Jun-08 15-Jul-23 9.50% 13.62% 5,533,000 3,200,000 1.73 15-Jul-08 ZC0004 (Reopening 1) 17-Jul-08 20-Feb-10
17-Jul-08 15-Jun-21 12.80% 12.81% 5,264,000 4,350,000 1.21 FR0047 (Reopening 4) 17-Jul-08 15-Feb-28 10.00% 13.20% 2,824,000 2,100,000 1.34 29-Jul-08 SPN20090731 31-Jul-08 31-Jul-09
4,434,000 3,050,000 1.45 FR0027 (Reopening 3) 31-Jul-08 15-Jun-15 9.50% 11.63% 4,701,000 2,250,000 2.09 FR0034 (Reopening 3) 31-Jul-08 15-Jun-21 12.80% 12.24% 6,900,500 2,000,000 3.45 12-Aug-08 FR0026 (Reopening 5) 14-Aug-08 15-Oct-14 11.00% 11.51% 6,274,000 2,250,000 2.79 FR0036 (Reopening 2) 14-Aug-08 15-Sep-19 11.50% 11.81% 2,377,000 1,300,000 1.83 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 ( p g ) g p , , , , FR0047 (Reopening 5) 14-Aug-08 15-Feb-28 10.00% 12.20% 2,681,000 1,900,000 1.41 22-Aug-08 IFR 0001 26-Aug-08 15-Aug-15 11.80%
2,714,000 1.78 IFR0002 26-Aug-08 15-Aug-18 11.95%
1,985,000 1.63 26-Aug-08 SPN20090731 (Reopening) 28-Aug-08 31-Jul-09
2,056,000 1,712,000 1.20 FR0036 (Reopening 3) 28-Aug-08 15-Sep-19 11.50% 12.24% 2,680,000 1,500,000 1.79 FR0050 (Reopening 1) 28-Aug-08 15-Jul-38 10.50% 12.51% 949,000 750,000 1.27 1-Sep-08 ORI005 (Retail Bonds) 3-Sep-08 15-Sep-13 11.45% 11.45%
2,714,875 1.00 9-Sep-08 ZC0006 11-Sep-08 20-Sep-11
11-Sep-08 15-Jun-15 9.50%
11-Sep-08 15-Jul-38 10.50%
SPN20090731 18-Sep-08 31-Jul-09
,
3,000,000
62
Source: Ministry of Finance.
p p , , FR0026 (Reopening 6) 18-Sep-08 15-Oct-14 11.00%
18-Sep-08 14-Sep-15 9.00%
54 000 000 158 483 440 86 931 640 1 8 2,000,000
63
Source: Bloomberg, modified.
60
50 60 30 40 n rupiah 20 trillio 10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 … 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 Total 15.64 39.05 37.12 39.98 42.68 43.00 39.47 44.41 33.64 38.02 51.35 29.23 36.79 16.73 23.68 21.03 5.59 12.91 2.45 14.43 13.84
IFR
ZC 5.78 2.71 5.89
SPN
IB
16.65 22.20 124.3 ORI
VR 8 76 8 56 7 12 0 39 11 41 17 45 18 32 16 82 17 92 22 72 25 32 154 7
64
Source: Ministry of Finance. VR 8.76 8.56
FR 1.10 14.84 25.00 23.50 27.34 38.89 13.63 13.15 5.33 10.10 10.35 6.51 11.47 16.73 23.68 21.03 5.59 12.91 2.45 14.43 13.84 -
matured in 2008, Rp6.1 trillion matured in 2009, Rp1.5 trillion matured in 2010 and Rp2.3 trillion matured in 2011
p g y p , g g g 2022–2023
1)
1)
1) 1)
Source: Ministry of Finance. (1) Volume in billion rupiah. (2) WAY = Weighted Average Yield.
65
Diversified bondholders Ever-increasing daily transaction
8,091 7,864 6,865 7 000 8,000 9,000 280 320 360
80 00% 100.00%
4,6294,731 5,4345,584 4,728 6,382 5,791 5,163 5,462 4,940 4,6054,6944,844 3,999 4,561 4,136 5,608 4,225 3 918 5,000 6,000 7,000 200 240 280
40 00% 60.00% 80.00%
1,395 2,122 2,549 3,307 3,271 , 3,918 2,000 3,000 4,000 80 120 160
20.00% 40.00%
522
2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 J a n ' 7 F e b M a r A p r M e i J u n J u l A g s S e p t O k t N
D e s ' 7 J a n ' 8 F e b M a r A p r M e i J u n i J u l i A g s S e p O k t s . d 7 N
Volume (miliar rupiah) - LHS Frekuensi - RHS
0.00% Dec-04 Dec-05 Des'06 Dec-07 Oct-08 10-Nov- 08 BANK NON BANK ASING
66
Volume (miliar rupiah) LHS Frekuensi RHS
Note: Offshore include banks, financial institutions, etc. Source: Ministry of Finance.
Dec'04 Dec'05 Des'06 Dec'07 Jan'08 Mar-08 May-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 10-Nov-08
BANKS
287.56 289.65
269.11 268.65 266.74 273.12 271.16 272.18 263.00 261.04 274.13 273.54
State Banks - Recap 158.84 154.50 152.76 154.67 152.13 155.22 148.59 153.69 145.07 146.08 144.90 Private Banks - Recap 95.14 85.38 80.79 72.63 70.15 73.15 73.21 73.00 67.73 65.58 67.84 Non Recap Banks 32.40 45.79 32.78 35.37 38.65 38.40 42.79 38.63 43.09 42.02 53.09 p 3 5 9 3 8 35 3 38 65 38 0 9 38 63 3 09 53 09 Regional Banks - Recap 1.18 3.96 2.78 5.97 5.80 6.34 6.57 6.85 7.11 6.64 7.57 Syariah Banks 0.73 0.73 0.73
Government Institutions
0.00 10.52
7.54 14.86 14.86 14.87 15.30 16.04 17.75 21.93 18.08 20.08
Bank Indonesia
7.54 14.86 14.86 14.87 15.30 16.04 17.75 21.93 18.08 20.08
NON BANKS
111 74 99 67 142 10 194 24 194 46 210 41 225 22 232 01 253 54 258 72
249 49 248 05 NON-BANKS
111.74 99.67 142.10 194.24 194.46 210.41 225.22 232.01 253.54 258.72
249.49 248.05
Mutual Funds 53.98 9.12 21.43 26.33 25.69 27.69 29.91 30.98 35.63 35.18 34.64 34.68 Insurance Company 27.08 32.30 35.04 43.47 43.44 44.47 45.58 47.40 50.37 53.09 54.41 54.64 Foreign Holders 10.74 31.09 54.92 78.16 79.07 80.74 91.66 94.10 106.66 105.49 92.81 90.66 Pension Fund 16.42 22.02 23.08 25.50 25.68 26.41 27.62 28.55 29.68 30.40 32.49 32.74 Securities Company 0.43 0.46 1.00 0.28 0.57 0.64 1.07 0.78 0.52 0.71 0.60 0.77 Oth 3 08 4 68 6 63 20 50 20 01 30 47 29 39 30 21 30 67 33 86 34 54 34 56 Others 3.08 4.68 6.63 20.50 20.01 30.47 29.39 30.21 30.67 33.86 34.54 34.56
TOTAL
399.30 399.84 418.75 477.75 476.05 498.40 511.68 520.23 534.29 541.70 541.70 541.66
Source: Ministry of Finance.
67
[Rp miliar]
80,000 100,000 40,000 60,000
48.41% 47.13%
20,000 ,
9 33% 23.67% 18.59% 20.13% 23.45%
Total 76,683 78,156 79,074 83,382 80,742 86,192 91,656 94,099 100,010 106,656 105,488 92,809 90,655 >10 32,117 32,451 31,039 29,528 27,323 27,987 34,182 37,642 45,178 49,007 46,833 43,741 43,887 5-10 21,132 19,843 20,424 19,996 20,362 18,600 20,635 18,133 18,882 23,075 20,995 18,685 16,852 2 5 14 144 17 243 19 623 22 045 21 902 25 862 24 102 26 508 23 633 22 483 24 693 21 767 21 461 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 10-Nov-08
9.33% 9.28%
2-5 14,144 17,243 19,623 22,045 21,902 25,862 24,102 26,508 23,633 22,483 24,693 21,767 21,461 0-2 9,290 8,619 7,989 11,814 11,155 13,743 12,738 11,815 12,317 12,091 12,966 8,616 8,456
68
Source: Ministry of Finance.
20 00 22,00 [in percentage] 29 Okt'08 18,00 20,00 30 Okt'08 16,00 14,00 11 Nop '08 3 Nop '08 31 Okt 08 30 Okt '08
Tenor 11-Nop-08 03-Nop-08 31-Okt-08 30-Okt-08 29-Okt-08 07-Okt-08 1Y 13,54 14,80 16,63 16,59 18,73 12,45 2Y 13,55 16,34 16,36 16,71 20,07 13,22 3Y 14,53 16,43 17,43 17,49 20,05 13,73 4Y 14,59 16,63 17,38 17,44 19,99 14,06 5Y 14,69 16,65 16,61 16,53 19,95 14,43
10 00 12,00 31-Okt-08 30 Okt '08 29 Okt '08 7 Okt '08
, , , , , , 6Y 14,75 16,86 17,05 16,59 20,47 14,38 7Y 14,84 16,35 16,87 16,55 17,10 14,41 10Y 15,01 17,21 17,26 18,99 19,30 12,95 15Y 14,91 16,28 16,56 16,59 19,45 15,12 20Y 14,96 16,76 16,76 16,80 20,14 14,90 30Y 15,71 17,86 18,60 18,61 20,32 15,40
10,00 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y
Sumber: IDMA, Bloomberg.
69
TOTAL 2003 2 Auctions 8,127,000 TOTAL 2004 1 A ti 1 962 000
TOTAL 2004 1 Auction 1,962,000 TOTAL 2005 4 Auctions 5,158,000 TOTAL 2007 2 Auctions 2,859,000 2008 07 April 2,007,000 30 Oct. 41,000 12 Nov 327 000 12 Nov. 327,000 TOTAL 2008 3 Auctions 2,375,000
Source: Ministry of Finance.
70
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT AND CENTRAL BANK EXTERNAL DEBT BY CREDITOR TYPE AND COUNTRY Thousand of USD rate at end of period ITEMS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 31-Mar-08 31-Jun-08 31-Sep-08 (1) 1.Outstanding External Debt of Central Government a. Bilateral 24,638,224 22,712,737 26,067,339 29,876,838 30,333,174 66,109,494 28,101,458 28,603,434 31,924,210 29,714,580 29,458,395 Japan 18,144,085 16,269,301 18,901,835 21,646,164 22,060,685 20,954,829 20,347,552 20,833,056 23,766,579 21,752,429 22,000,513 France 1,227,209 1,142,311 1,377,045 1,656,530 1,697,788 1,494,557 1,557,988 1,585,814 1,708,840 1,646,485 1,524,924 United States 1,546,305 1,547,201 1,583,891 1,603,714 1,521,462 1,573,227 1,470,145 1,345,441 1,335,106 1,297,080 1,280,989 Germany, Fed.Rep. Of 861,180 911,167 1,083,451 1,384,151 1,425,003 1,350,004 1,433,441 1,493,315 1,652,309 1,589,880 1,476,147 Other 2,859,445 2,842,757 3,121,117 3,586,279 3,628,236 40,736,877 3,292,332 3,345,808 3,461,376 3,428,706 3,175,822 b. Multilateral 20,524,383 19,924,626 20,282,873 19,738,670 19,250,788 18,779,410 18,836,735 19,054,556 19,102,073 18,846,958 18,425,935 International Organization - IMF International Organization - I.B.R.D. 11,773,717 11,577,025 10,802,360 9,776,102 8,942,985 8,106,523 7,420,807 6,821,789 6,519,681 6,444,384 6,255,773 International Organization - A D B 7 543 701 7 179 379 8 309 718 8 582 146 8 868 914 9 157 712 9 409 209 10 177 028 10 369 494 10 098 445 9 928 703 International Organization A.D.B. 7,543,701 7,179,379 8,309,718 8,582,146 8,868,914 9,157,712 9,409,209 10,177,028 10,369,494 10,098,445 9,928,703 Other 1,206,965 1,168,222 1,170,795 1,380,422 1,438,889 1,515,175 2,006,719 2,055,739 2,212,898 2,304,129 2,241,459 c. Export Credit Facilities 15,740,675 14,887,888 16,605,092 18,397,278 18,022,489 15,327,146 14,938,846 14,512,572 15,292,760 14,513,727 13,844,114 d. Leasing 601,543 439,235 368,740 301,906 224,873 135,216 69,521 15,754 14,466 3,438 3,450 e. Commercial 77,952 95,880 98,525 102,528 85,482 79,178 74,702 66,199 63,881 61,454 55,801 f. Bond 167,196 167,196 167,196 167,196 1,087,196 3,182,196 4,945,000 6,370,000 8,321,500 10,450,000 10,450,000 g. Total ( a + b + c + d + e + f ) 61,749,973 58,227,562 63,589,765 68,584,416 69,004,002 103,612,640 66,966,262 68,622,515 74,718,890 73,590,157 72,237,695 2.Outstanding External Debt of Bank Indonesia a Bilateral 6 477 6 477 6 706 6 117 5 757 5 397 5 037 4 678 4 678 4 498 4 498 a. Bilateral 6,477 6,477 6,706 6,117 5,757 5,397 5,037 4,678 4,678 4,498 4,498 Japan France United States Germany, Fed.Rep. Of Other 6,477 6,477 6,706 6,117 5,757 5,397 5,037 4,678 4,678 4,498 4,498 b. Multilateral 10,982,544 9,105,256 8,829,290 10,238,606 9,653,885 7,806,028 – – – – – International Organization - IMF 10,982,544 9,105,256 8,829,290 10,238,606 9,653,885 7,806,028 – – – International Organization - I.B.R.D. International Organization - A.D.B. Other c. Syndicated Credit 1,918,926 1,831,446 1,838,497 1,847,839 1,837,368 1,280,001 750,477 712,814 705,269 693,230 658,310 d. Bond 232,804 232,804 232,804 232,804 232,804 232,804 – e. Total ( a + b + c + d ) 13,140,751 11,175,983 10,907,297 12,325,366 11,729,814 9,324,230 755,514 717,492 709,947 697,728 662,808
71
Source: Bank Indonesia. (1) Preliminary.
(In millions of U. S. dollars)
Period Government Debt Private Debt Total 2002 5,009 11,941 16,950 2003 4,000 11,669 15,669 2004 6,197 12,571 18,768 2005 5,448 15,722 21,170 2006 14,091 21,271 35,362 2007 6,367 25,082 31,450 , , , Q1 1,081 6,048 7,129 Q2 2,059 5,204 7,263 Q3 1,012 5,744 6,757 Q4 2 215 8 086 10 302 Q4 2,215 8,086 10,302 2008 4,132 24,762 28,894 Q1 1,012 8,030 9,043 Q2 2,088 8,419 10,507
(1)
Source: Bank Indonesia. (1) Preliminary Figures.
Q3 (1) 1,031 8,313 9,344
72
(in Million USD) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul (1) Aug (1) Sep (1)
64,606 60,058 55,212 51,942 52,929 48,601 50,983 53,909 54,552 54,890 55,801 55,497 55,520 56,020 56,785 58,379 58,796
8,867 7,713 7,642 7,537 8,211 6,371 6,560 7,465 7,611 7,699 8,136 8,191 7,529 7,947 8,032 8,709 9,097 1.1.Bank 7,718 6,649 4,870 4,316 3,906 4,042 4,544 5,351 5,509 5,542 5,969 5,987 5,174 5,516 5,502 6,101 6,029 State owned – bank 4,150 3,695 2,767 2,874 2,356 1,665 1,859 479 2,076 1,852 1,948 1,797 1,078 1,113 1,131 1,254 1,117 – Domestic prvt. Bank 2,326 2,268 1,537 779 810 491 904 2,369 894 937 656 640 692 693 591 608 790 – Joint venture b k 944 656 534 630 702 1 419 1 226 1 380 1 383 1 477 1 926 1 954 1 845 1 913 1 966 2 081 2 167 – bank 944 656 534 630 702 1,419 1,226 1,380 1,383 1,477 1,926 1,954 1,845 1,913 1,966 2,081 2,167 – Foreign bank 298 30 31 32 38 467 554 1,123 1,155 1,276 1,439 1,595 1,559 1,797 1,813 2,157 1,955 1.2.Non Bank Financial Institution 1,150 1,064 2,772 3,221 4,306 2,329 2,017 2,114 2,103 2,158 2,167 2,204 2,355 2,431 2,531 2,608 3,068 2. Non Financial Institution 55,738 52,345 47,570 44,405 44,718 42,229 44,423 46,444 46,941 47,191 47,665 47,306 47,991 48,073 48,753 49,670 49,699
2,197 3,624 1,634 2,550 3,361 6,646 10,031 13,391 13,514 16,692 14,290 14,559 13,770 15,918 19,812 19,153 15,374 Domestic securities owned by non-resident 2,197 3,624 1,634 2,550 3,361 6,646 10,031 13,391 13,514 16,692 14,290 14,559 13,770 15,918 19,812 19,153 15,374
26 1,972 164 756 1,991 4,666 8,087 11,269 11,321 14,467 12,090 12,387 11,620 13,843 17,762 16,986 13,194 B k 2 1 4 15 30 50 50 52 48 48 83 46 28 12 35
Source: Bank Indonesia. Note: Year 2000 in DEM, year 2001 onward original currencies (DEM,ATS,FRF,NLG,ESP,ITL,FNM) had been converted into EUR. Including loan from IMF. Consist of SBIs USD3.052,35 milion and Government Bonds USD9.334,22 million. (1) Preliminary Figures.
2
4 15 30 50 50 52 48 48 83 46 28 12 35
2,169 1,651 1,470 1,793 1,367 1,965 1,914 2,073 2,143 2,173 2,152 2,124 2,067 2,029 2,022 2,155 2,144
73
BBB Baa1 BBB+ Baa2 BB+ BB BBB- Ba2 Baa3 Ba1 Economic Crisis in 1998 Banks Recapitalization Continuous fiscal adjustment, improving liquidity and structural improvements in real economy Sound record of fiscal management on the success of Government efforts to improve the investment climate B BB- B- B+ B3 B1 B2 Ba3 Dec 08: Moody’s CCC- CCC+ CC CCC C Caa2 Caa3 Caa1
Current Ratings: M d ’ B 3
Diminished likelihood that the Government will seek additional Gradually improving external liquidity, macroeconomic stability and improved political conditions Feb 08: Fitch upgrade to BB (stable) y affirms ratings Nov 08: S&P affirms ratings SD/DDD R/C CC Ca C
Moody’s: Ba3 S&P: BB- Fitch BB
debt rescheduling
75
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Scale Up Government Budget for Infrastructure Development
Infrastructure Pre Summit 22 Desember 2004 Infrastructure Summit 17 Januari 2005 Indonesia Infrastructure Conference & Exhibition November 2006
Good Governance
Improvement Of Cross-sectoral Coordination Private Sector Participation Regulatory Framework Regulatory Framework
Regulatory Reform (crosssectoral & sectoral) ; Risk allocation, Government Support, Land Procurement, Asset Management, Tariff & Subsidy Policy, etc
Sectoral Restructuring Sectoral Blue Print O ti R h bilit ti & D l t (INVESTMENT) Assessment of Model Project Execution of Model Projects 77 Operation, Rehabilitation & Development (INVESTMENT)
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Road & Toll Road Water & Sanitation
New Road Law Law
Law on Water Resources Law No.7/2004
Telecommunication
Interconnection Regulation MCI regulation No. 8/2006 GR on Toll Road GR No.15/2005 GR on Supply GR No.16/2005 8/2006 Regulation on Non- Tax State Revenue GR
Law on ITE Law
Energy & Power Transportation Land & Government Investment
GR on Electricity Procurement and Utilization GR No.3/2005 Establishment New Submitted to New Rail Transport Law Law No 23/2007 New Sea Transport Law Law No 17/2008 New Land Acquisition Regulation Presidential Regulation No.36/2005 & No.65/2006, Head of Electricity Law parliament New Energy Law Law
Draft New Laws
Land Transport Submitted to parliament National Land Agency Regulation 3/2007 New Government Investment Regulation GR No 1/2008 Land Transport Investment Regulation No.1/2008
78
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
2007
Regulation of Head of National Land Agency No. 3/2007 on Land Acquisition Guidelines Law on Information & Electronic Transaction (Law No. 11/2008)
2008
the users of information technology Law No. 17/2008 on Shipping
– Reduce the monopoly paradigm in sea transport sector – Describe the multi operator for ports in Indonesia – Describe the scope of services for ports in Indonesia
79
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
– business entities. It can be done individually or by joint venture – IN the case of none business entities will execute the railway development, the Central
Law no 23/2007 on Railway Sector Covers
Government or Local Governments will be responsible
– Business license – Development license Operational license – Operational license
– Central Government for the railways that go across more than 1 province – Provincial Government for the railways that go across the border of districts within a province after receiving approval from the Central Government – District/Municipal Government for the railways that go within the district/city after receiving a recommendation from its Provincial Government and approval from the Central Government
80
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
land acquisition (BLU Tanah)
Land Acquisition Fund
Government has allocated Land Acquisition Fund for about Rp. 600 billion (2006) which is mostly disbursed in 2007
(MPW) budget
be disbursed up to 2009
land capping for 28 toll roads
Land Capping
APBN 2010
Land Working Group
Consists of 2 Technical Teams: Land Acquisition and Land Banking Team
Land Banking
81
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
p p y
82
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
(US$ 14 Mio) in various infrastructure sectors
Project Development Facility g g y
Guarantee Fund
following best commercial practice
hi l id tifi ti f t bt i i t h i l i t d i
Guarantee Fund vehicle, identification of assets, obtaining technical assistance, and procuring management fund
(b d G t R l ti 66/2007)
Infrastructure Fund (based on Government Regulation 66/2007)
sector or multilateral financial institution
83
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Project Development Facility
Power Plant
Guarantee Fund g j ( ) g g pp y y g g Commuter Railway, Kertajati Airport, Sleman Water Supply, Sleman Terminal
Guarantee Fund Infrastructure Fund
84
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
In million rupiah
Source: Nota Keuangan dan APBN 2008. (1) Nota Keuangan dan RAPBN 2009.
85
1. Finalization of 4 lanes highway development Jakarta-Surabaya, development of Trans Sumatera, Trans Kalimantan, Trans Sulawesi 2. Development of 641 km toll road in Java and South Sulawesi 3. Finalization of Suramadu (Surabaya to Madura) bridge development 4. Spin off railway management for JABODETABEK and South Sumatera p y g 5. Finalization of airport development in Makassar (Hassanuddin airport) 6. New Law on Sea Transportation 7. Finalization of expansion of port facility Tanjung Priok 8 Flagship program of DeTIKNas (e education e procurement Palapa Ring free internet services for SMU student Telecommunication and 8. Flagship program of DeTIKNas (e-education, e-procurement, Palapa Ring, free internet services for SMU student, Telecommunication and Informatics Blue Print) 9. Development of rural telephone for the agenda of Desa Berdering and Desa Pintar
11 Improvement of Management Performance of Local Water Enterprises (PDAMs)
15 C il ti d i f PPP b k
86
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Project Name/Location Capacity/COD Status PLTU 1 Banten, Suralaya PLTU 2 Banten, Pandeglang 1 x 600 MW (03/2010) 2 x 300 MW (06/2009) Kons CNTIC Zhejiang Electr, Rekayasa Industry Kons Chengda, Truba Jurong Kons Dongfang Electr, Dalle Energy , g g PLTU 3 Banten, Tangerang PLTU 1 Jabar, Indramayu PLTU 2 Jabar Sukabumi ( ) 3 x 300 MW (02/2010) 3 x 300 MW (09/2009) 3 x 300 MW (02/2010) g g , gy Kons Sinomach, CNEEC, Penta Adi Samudra Kons Shanghay Electr, Maxima Infrastructure Kons Zelan, Tronoh, Priamanaya Tender process PLTU 2 Jabar, Sukabumi PLTU 1 Jateng, Rembang PLTU 2 Jateng, Cilacap 3 x 300 MW (02/2010) 2 x 300 MW (09/2009) 1 x 600 MW ( ) Tender process Kons Dongfang Electr, Dalle Energy Kons Harbin Power, Mitra Selaras Hutama Energy Kons Sinomach, CNEEC, Penta Adi Samudra PLTU 1 Jatim, Pacitan PLTU 2 Jatim, Probolinggo PLTU 3 Jatim, Tuban 2 x 300 MW (02/2010) 1 x 600 MW (03/2010) 2 x 300 MW ( ) 87
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Project Name/Location Capacity/COD Status PLTU NAD PLTU 2 Sumut PLTU Sumbar PLTU 1 Riau 2 x 100 -150 MW 2 x 200 MW (04/2010) 2 x 100 -150 MW 2 x 10 MW – Kons Guangdong Power, Bagus Karya – – PLTU 1 Riau PLTU 2 Riau PLTU Kep. Riau PLTU 3 Bangka Belitung PLTU 4 Bangka Belitung PLTU Lampung 2 x 10 MW 2 x 7 MW 2 x 7 MW (01/2010) 2 x 25 MW 2 x 15 MW 2 x 100 -150 MW (04/2010) – – Kons Shangdong Mach, Rekadaya Elektrika – – Adhi Karya, Jiangxi Electrical Power PLTU Lampung PLTU 1 Kalbar PLTU 2 Kalbar PLTU 1 Kalteng PLTU Kalsel PLTU Sulsel 2 x 100 150 MW (04/2010) 2 x 50 MW (01/2010) 2 x 25 MW 2 x 60 MW (01/2010) 2 x 65 MW 2 x 50 MW Adhi Karya, Jiangxi Electrical Power Shanghai Golden Concord, Truba Alam Manunggal Eng. – China Nat Heavy Mach, Shangdong, Mega Pwr Mandiri PLTU Sultra PLTU 2 Sulut PLTU Gorontalo PLTU 1 NTB PLTU 2 NTB 2 x 10 MW (01/2010) 2 x 25 MW (10/2009) 2 x 25 MW (10/2009) 2 x 10 MW 2 x 25 MW (10/2009) – – Kons Shangdong Mach, Rekadaya Elektrika Wijaya Karya Meta Epsi PLTU 1 NTT PLTU 2 NTT PLTU Maluku PLTU Maluku Utara PLTU 1 Papua 2 x 7 MW (02/2010) 2 x 15 MW 2 x 15 MW 2 x 7 MW 2 x 7 MW – Barata Indonesia Kons Shangdong Mach, Rekadaya Elektrika – – – PLTU 2 Papua 2 x 10 MW – 88
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Sector Planning Preparation to Prequalification Request for PQ, PQ & Request for Proposal Award & Concession Agreement Construction Operation Total Electricity/Power Plant 1 5 4 2 – – 12 Gas Pipeline 3 3 6 Gas Pipeline – 3 – 3 – – 6 Transportation 2 3 – 2 3 – 10 Drinking Water 17 2 1 1 1 2 24 Toll Road 4 3 7 20 4 – 38 Telecommunication 1 – – – – – 1 Total 25 16 12 28 8 2 91
89
Project Specification (Length/Capacity) Location Time Frame (Progress/Concession Period Granted) Value (Million USD) Medan-Binjai Toll Road 15.80 km North Sumatera PQ starts at end of May’08; Cons. 35 yrs 118,81 Palembang-Indralaya Toll Road 22.00 km South Sumatera PQ starts at end of May’08; Cons. 35 yrs 114,45 Sumatera Tegineneng-Babatan Toll Road 50.00 km Lampung - South Sumatera PQ starts at end of May’08; Cons. 35 yrs 296,39 Pandaan-Malang Toll Road 37.00 km East Java PQ starts at end of May’08; Cons. 35 yrs 279,97 Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan Toll Road 58 50 km Sumedang Under tender preparation; Cons 35 yrs 428 86 Cileunyi Sumedang Dawuan Toll Road 58.50 km Sumedang, West Java Under tender preparation; Cons. 35 yrs 428,86 Medan-Kualanamu-Tebing Tinggi Toll Road 60.00 km North Sumatera Under tender preparation; Cons. 35 yrs 477,37 Pasirkoja-Soreang Toll Road 8.30 km South Bandung, West Java Under tender preparation; Cons. 35 yrs 111,03 West Java Sukabumi-Ciranjang Toll Road 31.00 km West Java Under tender preparation; Cons. 35 yrs 201,72 Menado-Bitung Toll Road 53.80 km North Sulawesi Under tender preparation; Cons. 35 yrs 610,01 Pekanbaru-Dumai Toll Road 135.00 km Riau Under tender preparation; Cons. 35 yrs 918,06 Serangan-Tanjung Benoa Toll Road 9.10 km Bali Under tender preparation; Cons. 35 yrs 161,89 Central Java Coal-Fired Power Plant 2 x 600 MW Central Java Tender expected to start by end of Nov 2008; Concession 30 yrs 1.200 Bandung Bulk Water Supply 1100 lt/sec Bandung, West Java Tender expected to start on Jan 2009; Concession 20 - 25 yrs 18
90
Total 4.817,75
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
as of end September 2008
1. Regulation of the Minister of Law and Human Rights No. M.HH.01.GR.01.06 of 2008 dated 9 July 2008 concerning Third Amendment to Decree of the Minister of Justice Number M.02-IZ.01.10 of 1995 concerning Transit Visas, Visitor Visas, Limited Residence Visas, Entry Permits and Immigration Permits (July 2008). 2. Government Regulation No. 62 of 2008 concerning Amendment to Government Regulation No. 1 of 2008 concerning Income Tax Relief for Investment in Designated Business Lines and/or Designated Regions (June 2008). 3 Draft Law concerning Special Economic Zones tabled with the Indonesian Parliament in Letter of the President of Indonesia No R 54/Pres/8/2008 dated 29 August 2008 3. Draft Law concerning Special Economic Zones tabled with the Indonesian Parliament in Letter of the President of Indonesia No. R-54/Pres/8/2008 dated 29 August 2008 (June 2008). 4. Initial investment database set up by the Investment Coordinating Board, to be upgraded (June 2008 and ongoing). 5. Importer Profile available on-line in import services system (July 2008). 6. Upgrading and widening of 2 kilometres of Jalan Raya Cibarusah (Lemahabang-Mekamukti) completed, road in operation (December 2008). 6. Upgrading and widening of 2 kilometres of Jalan Raya Cibarusah (Lemahabang Mekamukti) completed, road in operation (December 2008). 7. Construction of 248.5 metre Cikarang Flyover with road length 283 metres completed and in operation (December 2008) 8. Technical design and system model for Export National Single Window (NSW) completed (June 2008). 9. Trial integration of Seaport NSW System into NSW portal at Tanjung Priok completed in August 2008 (June 2008).
92
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
1. Government Regulation in Lieu of Parliamentary Act No. 4 of 2008 dated 15 October 2008 concerning the Financial Sector Safety Net (August 2008). 2. Initial draft of the Crisis Management Protocol (CMP) completed under FSSK coordination at financial sub-sector level in July 2008. The FSSK, assisted by a consultant team (Crisis Management Analytics), is conducting a crisis simulation (fire drill), for which preparations commenced in September 2008. Testing of simulation results is planned for 16 December 2008 (July 2008). 3. Issuance of Capital Market and Financial Institutions Supervisory Agency (Bapepam-LK) Regulation Number PER-04/BL/2008 dated 7 August 2008 concerning Oversight f Ri k B d P i F d (S t b 2008)
4. Review completed by State Ministry for SOEs, recommending application of policy bank concept by the Indonesian Export Financing Agency (LPEI) (December 2008). 5. Main Dealer Quotation System application in operation with progressive upgrading (October 2008). 6. Government Regulation Number 27 of 2008 dated 4 April 2008 concerning Income Tax on Discount on Treasury Notes, one form of debt securities. Bilateral meeting held between the Bureau of Securities Transactions and Institutions and Directorate General of Taxation on 8 August 2008. Study conducted on implementation of Government Regulation No 6 of 2002 concerning Income Tax on Interest and Discounts from Bonds Traded on Stock Exchanges (August 2008) Government Regulation No. 6 of 2002 concerning Income Tax on Interest and Discounts from Bonds Traded on Stock Exchanges (August 2008). 7. Minister of Finance Regulation No. 118/PMK08/2008 dated 28 August 2008 concerning Issuance of Sharia Government Securities on Domestic Primary Market by Bookbuilding (July 2008). 8. IFR_0001 issued in Rp 2.7 trillion sale at 11.8% fixed coupon rate, 7-year tenor and IFR_0002 in Rp 1.9 trillion sale at 11.95% fixed coupon rate, 10-year tenor (July 2008). 9 Four fatwas issued by National Sharia Council Indonesian Council of Islamic Scholars (DSN-MUI) 26 June 2008: (1) Fatwa No 69 of 2008 concerning Sharia 9. Four fatwas issued by National Sharia Council, Indonesian Council of Islamic Scholars (DSN-MUI), 26 June 2008: (1) Fatwa No. 69 of 2008 concerning Sharia Government Securities; (2) Fatwa No. 70 of 2008 concerning Method for Issuance of Sharia Government Securities; (3) Fatwa No. 71 concerning the Ijarah-Sale & Lease Back Agreement; and (4) Fatwa No. 72 of 2008 concerning Sharia Government Securities - Sale and Lease Back (June 2008). 10. Training and dissemination for the banking community in Pekanbaru, 4-6 June 2008, and Solo, 19-21 July 2008. Training activities will continued in other cities.
93
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
94
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
95
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
96
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
97
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
98
Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
100
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
2007 2008 (1)
176955.86 257186.98
43547.69 53649.89
124783.67 182946.86
8624.5 9204.56
646.01
10739.66
35963.3 36808.24
27266.23 27498.79
8697.07 9309.45
1233.12 1081.83 TOTAL 214152.28 295077.04 N ti l I f EMR 708494 4 894990 5 National Income from EMR 708494.4 894990.5 EMR Sector Contribution 30.20% 33.00% Rate (IDR per USD) 9125 9100 ICP (US$ per barel) 72.31 95 Lifti (th d f b h) 898 927 Lifting (thousands of bph) 898 927
Note: (1) The Revenue is not included: Dividend from State-Owned Companies in the EMR sector. Taxes from EMR sector business comprising PPN (value added tax), PBBKB (tax of vehicle fuel) and PBB (tax of land and building). Mining Authority Business License Issued by Regents and still under auditing process.
101
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
102
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
PRODUCTION
103
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
104
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
105
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
106
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
(1) Assumed: no new reserves found. (2) Including Cepu Block.
( ) g p
(2)Only at Kalan – West Kalimantan.
107
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
108
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
109
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
110
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
111
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
12,000 14,000 8,000 10,000
4,000 6,000
4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
112
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
113
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
114
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
TWh 500 400 200 300 100 J M d B li O t id J M d B li I d i 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Year
115
Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.
Jawa Madura Bali Outside Jawa Madura Bali Indonesia