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Electrification Futures Study Paige Jadun Electrify Colorado! Beneficial Electrification In the 21st Century! Denver, CO, June 12, 2019 Material includes unpublished preliminary data and analysis that has not been peer- nrel.gov/EFS reviewed

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nrel.gov/EFS

Material includes unpublished preliminary data and analysis that has not been peer- reviewed and is subject to change - not for distribution, quotation, or citation

Electrification Futures Study

Paige Jadun

Electrify Colorado! Beneficial Electrification In the 21st Century! Denver, CO, June 12, 2019

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NREL | 2

NREL-led collaboration, multi-year study

Study sponsored by U.S. DOE-EERE Office of Strategic Programs

Technology cost and performance (December 2017) Demand-side adoption scenarios (June 2018) dsgrid model documentation (August 2018) Supply-side evolution scenarios (~2019) Methodological approaches (~2019) Impacts of electrification (~2020) Electricity system operations (~2020)

Published Ongoing Under Review

+ Planned research on distribution system and utility business model impacts (2020-21)

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NREL | 3

2050 U.S. electricity consumption increases relative to Reference

Medium +932 TWh (20%)
High +1,782 TWh (38%)

1.6%/year CAGR (2016-2050) 1.2%/year 0.6%/year

Mai et al. (2018). Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States. “Demand-side Scenarios”

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NREL | 4

Mai et al. (2018). Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States. “Demand-side Scenarios”

Penetration of electric technologies based on expert judgement and consumer choice modeling

State-level data with end-use sales shares, stock, service demand, and electricity demand available at www.nrel.gov/efs

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NREL | 5

Planning for electrification requires considering the impacts to annual consumption and load shapes

Note: Summer = June-August, Fall = September-November, Winter = December-February, Spring = March-May Peak Load (GW)

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NREL | 6

Meeting new system needs from electrification could require a scaling-up of U.S. electricity infrastructure development

Solar: ~40 GW/yr Natural gas: ~30 GW/yr Wind: ~20 GW/yr

+Even higher rates in some scenarios

Preliminary Results—Do Not Distribute, Quote or Cite

The future generation mix depends on uncertain technology, market, and policy conditions.

Historical

Data Source: U.S. EIA

Modeled

High Electrification Mid Case

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NREL | 7

Key Takeaways

Under scenarios with increased electrification:

– growth in electricity demand could outstrip historical rates – electrified demands could re-shape load profiles

Meeting these electrification-driven changes in demand could result in unprecedented

capacity development in the U.S., with impacts on: – electric system expenditures – electricity prices – energy system costs – emissions – fuel and energy consumption

Ongoing research in the Electrification Futures Study will examine power systems
perations in greater detail, including production cost simulations and distribution

system modeling

Preliminary Results—Do Not Distribute, Quote or Cite

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www.nrel.gov

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Thank you paige.jadun@nrel.gov

/efs

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Additional Slides

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NREL | 10

Scenarios for end-use electric technology advancement

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70485.pdf

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 100 200 300 Batte

BNEF 2016 Moawad et al. 2016 DOE-VTO Interpolated Slow Advancement Moderate Advancement Rapid Advancement

Technology data is foundational to cost-benefit assessments

3 trajectories (slow, moderate, rapid) for buildings and

transportation

Literature-based summary of industrial

electrotechnologies

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NREL | 11

Developing demand-side scenarios

OBJECTIVES

Characterize changes to end-use sectors under increasing levels of electrification Quantify how electrification impacts total electricity demand and consumption profiles

APPROACH

Expert judgment adoption projections and consumer choice modeling Bottom-up stock and energy accounting model (EnergyPATHWAYS)

SCENARIOS

Reference: Least incremental change (~AEO2017) Medium: Widespread electrification among low(er)-hanging fruit opportunities High: Transformational electrification

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NREL | 12

Method in brief:

Electrification follows a similar trend

Example for light-duty vehicles

Sales shares determined from a combination of expert judgment based on current trends & consumer choice models (e.g., NREL ADOPT model for LDVs) EnergyPATHWAYS model used for stock rollover and detailed energy accounting Principles: technology-rich assessment, bottom-up accounting, cross-sectoral breadth, national scope with state-level detail

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NREL | 13

Transportation Sector Details

2050 U.S. transportation fleet

(High scenario):

240 million light-duty plug-in

electric vehicles

7 million medium- and heavy-

duty plug-in electric trucks

80 thousand battery electric

transit buses

Together these deliver up to

76% of miles traveled from electricity in 2050

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NREL | 14

Buildings Sector Details

In the combined buildings sector

(residential + commercial) in 2050, electric equipment provides up to:

61% of space heating
52% of water heating
94% of cooking services

(High scenario; right column)

Appliance lifetimes limit total

penetration

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NREL | 15

Modeling Methods

Regional Ener

ergy D Dep eploymen ent S System em ( (ReE eEDS) – Long-term capacity expansion model of the electricity system in the contiguous United States

Base

se m model = = 2018 2018 Final R Release se V Versi sion – Consistent with 2018 Standard Scenarios report – Key assumptions from ATB 2018 and AEO2018

New e

electrif ific icatio ion-speci cific m c method

dol
log
gical i

improvements

Sun, Yinong, Trieu Mai, Paige Jadun, Caitlin Murphy, Jeffrey Logan, Brent Nelson. Forthcoming. Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-term Power System Impacts of End-use Electrification.

Model Improvements

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NREL | 16

Report Topics and Structure

How might the U.S. power system evolve, how could electrification impact this evolution, and what are the possible implications?

Infrastructure needs ds Dispa patch a h and gene neration n mixe xes Natural g l gas cons nsum umption n and pr nd pric ices Elec ectric s system em cost m metric ics Emissio ions Im Impacts o

flexib xible l load

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NREL | 17

The required capacity development and operating needs lead to corresponding increases in electric system expenditures*

However, when levelized by incremental electrification-driven demand, costs are similar ($40-$43/MWh) under both Medium and High scenarios, suggesting that the U.S. is rich in low-cost resources.

Ranges reflect end-use technology advancement cases

Preliminary Results—Do Not Distribute, Quote or Cite

*Bulk power system only; distribution system costs not included

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NREL | 18

Doubling (or more) current installed capacity to meet High electrification requires sustained development of multiple technologies; technology mix depends on future conditions

Electrification 2018 2030 2040 2050 % Change: 2018-2050 Reference 1,100 1,200 1,400 1,600-1,700 50%-55% Medium 1,300-1,400 1,700-1,800 2,000-2,300 100%-105% High 1,800-2,000 2,300-2,600 105%-140%

Preliminary Results—Do Not Distribute, Quote or Cite