Transforming to a Clean Energy Economy UNU-WIDER 30 th Anniversary - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Transforming to a Clean Energy Economy

UNU-WIDER 30th Anniversary Douglas Arent, Ph.D. Executive Director, JISEA September 2015

2

Global GHG Footprint

Source: WRI

3

Profound Transformation is Underway

>2x

Growth of U.S. electricity generation from wind and solar since 2008

~ 50%

Percentage of net additions to global electric generating capacity from renewables since 2012 Of the $9.7 trillion

• f global investment in

Power Generation through 2035, 71% will be in renewables or clean

• technologies. (Citibank 2013)

Electric Cars LED Lights Solar Photovoltaics Modules Land-Based Wind

4

Much More is Possible

Many studies show one consistent conclusion: We can affordably, securely meet our energy needs with a much higher portion of renewables.

5

More than

• Possible. It’s

Happening.

Around the world, countries and localities are successfully integrating high penetrations of renewables, and many more are laying the groundwork to follow suit. Percentages of electricity from renewables, present and planned

DENMARK

40% in 2012 70% by 2030 100% by 2035

GERMANY

25% in 2013 30% by 2030 80% by 2035

HAWAII

10% in 2013 70% by 2030 100% by 2045

SPAIN

21% in 2013

(wind only)

40% by 2020

SOUTH AFRICA

4% in 2013 13% by 2020

6

Pervasive Innovation

Technology Policy Finance Business Models

7

The Evolving Power System …

How Soon? How Fast? What Business Models?

8

2010 2050

Renewable Electricity Futures Study

RE generation from technologies that are commercially available today, in combination with a portfolio of flexible electric system supply- and demand-side

• ptions, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in

2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the country

8

9

Renewables Could Supply A Majority of Power

Today’s commercially available technologies, in combination with flexible electric system supply- and demand-side options, can supply 30-90% of total U.S. electricity generation (with nearly 50% from variable wind and solar PV) by 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Baseline 30% RE 40% RE 50% RE 60% RE 70% RE 80% RE 90% RE % of Total Generated Electricity Percent RE Wind PV CSP Hydropower Geothermal Biomass Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Variable Generation

9

10

All regions of the country could contribute substantial renewable electricity supply in 2050

80% RE-ITI scenario

11

A more flexible electric power system is needed to enable electricity supply- demand balance with high levels of RE generation

• Flexible generators (particularly natural gas)
• Dispatchable renewables (e.g., biopower, geothermal, CSP with storage

and hydropower)

• Demand response (e.g., interruptible load)
• Controlled charging of electric vehicles
• Storage
• Curtailment
• Transmission
• Geospatial diversity of the variable resources to smooth output
• Coordinating bulk power system operations across wider areas

System flexibility can be increased using a broad portfolio of supply- and demand-side

• ptions, including:

13

High renewable electricity futures can result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use

80% RE scenarios lead to:

• ~80% reduction in 2050 generation from both coal-fired and natural gas-fired sources
• ~80% reduction in 2050 GHG emissions (combustion-only and life cycle)
• ~50% reduction in electric sector water use
• Gross land use totaling <3% of contiguous U.S. area; other related impacts include visual,

landscape, noise, habitat, and ecosystem concerns.

14

LCOE Projections Through 2030

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 Land-based Wind Offshore Wind Solar - UPV Solar - CSP 12TES Geothermal Hydropower Coal Coal - CCS Gas - CC Gas - CCS Biopower Nuclear LCOE (2013$/MWh)

2013

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 Land-based Wind Offshore Wind Solar - UPV Solar - CSP 12TES Geothermal Hydropower Coal Coal - CCS Gas - CC Gas - CCS Biopower Nuclear LCOE (2013$/MWh)

2030 - Mid

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 Land-based Wind Offshore Wind Solar - UPV Solar - CSP 12TES Geothermal Hydropower Coal Coal - CCS Gas - CC Gas - CCS Biopower Nuclear LCOE (2013$/MWh)

2030 - High

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 Land-based Wind Offshore Wind Solar - UPV Solar - CSP 12TES Geothermal Hydropower Coal Coal - CCS Gas - CC Gas - CCS Biopower Nuclear LCOE (2013$/MWh)

2030 - Low

Cost reductions for wind and solar technologies result in lower magnitude LCOE and tighter range across resources by 2030. No cost reduction is modeled for geothermal, hydropower, fossil, nuclear or biopower technologies. NREL ATB, 2015

15

Energy Policy Dynamics Increasingly Complex

15

16

Notes: The funds raised by green bonds are neither entirely inclusive nor exclusive of figures for clean energy asset finance. Bloomberg New Energy Finance will release additional further details on green bond investment activity in a future press release. ‘Sovereign, supranational & agency’ includes bonds issued by issued by international financial institutions, agencies and provinces to finance green projects. ‘Labelled corporate’ includes bonds issued by companies and explicitly labelled as green. ‘US municipal’ refers to bonds issued by US municipalities to finance green projects. ‘Project’ refers to project bonds backed by renewable energy projects. ‘ABS’ refers to asset-backed securities whose cashflows come from a portfolio of underlying receivables such as loans, leases and PPAs associated with green projects. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Finance Innovation: Annual historical Green bond issuance, by type, 2007-14 ($bn)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ABS Project US municipal Labelled corporate Supranational, sovereign & agency

17

Energy-Water-Food- Climate Interactions

18

Aristotle

Choice, not chance, determines your destiny.” “

Value-based Markets Policy Evolution Reliability Integrated Solutions

19

It is not the essential nature of a technology that matters but its capacity to fit into the social, political, and economic conditions of the day.

The Economist, March 12, 2012 “The Dream that Failed”

19