TransAlta Renewables Inc. Peters & Co. Limited Energy Conference - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TransAlta Renewables Inc. Peters & Co. Limited Energy Conference - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TransAlta Renewables Inc. Peters & Co. Limited Energy Conference September 14, 2017 1 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward- looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as forward -looking


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TransAlta Renewables Inc.

Peters & Co. Limited Energy Conference September 14, 2017

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This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on TransAlta Renewables Inc.’s (the “Company”) beliefs as well as assumptions based

  • n information available at the time the assumptions were made and on management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, and

expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts, but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as “may”, “will”, “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “project”, “foresee”, “potential”, “enable”, “continue”, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not guarantees of the Company’s future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause our actual performance to be materially different from that projected. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements pertaining to, without limitation, the following: guidance on 2017 earnings, before interest, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”) and 2017 cash available for distribution; the Kent Hills expansion, including the costs and timing of completion; the ability for Kent Hills wind farm to support $240 million to $275 million in project financing; the continued support and commitment of TransAlta Corporation; realizing drivers of future growth, including as it pertains to government policies and regulations, customer requirements and diversified system; the Company’s strategic focus and sources of capital, including the amount of internally generated cash flow; development of potential wind and solar projects; and the Brazeau pumped hydro

  • pportunity, including the size, cost and timing thereof.

These forward-looking statements are not historical facts but reflect current expectations concerning future plans, actions and results. These statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual plans, actions and results to differ materially from current expectations including, but not limited to: changes in tax, environmental, and other laws and regulations; the regulatory and political environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate; adverse regulatory developments, including unanticipated impacts on existing generation; environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission and distribution of electricity; disputes with counterparties, including as it pertains to the commercial operation at South Hedland; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels, water, or wind required to operate our facilities; risks pertaining to our relationship with TransAlta Corporation; competitive factors in the power industry; operational breakdowns, failures, or other disruptions; changes in economic and market conditions; potential delay in construction and commissioning of the Kent Hills expansion; and other risks and uncertainties discussed in the Company's materials filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities from time to time and as also set forth in the Company’s MD&A and the Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2016. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which reflect the Company's expectations only as of the date of this presentation. The purpose of the financial outlooks contained herein is to give the reader information about management's current expectations and plans and readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law The Company evaluates its performance and the performance of our business segments using a variety of measures. Certain of the financial measures discussed in this presentation are not defined under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and, therefore, should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to IFRS measures when assessing the financial performance or liquidity of the Company. These non-IFRS measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. Refer to the Company’s MD&A, which is available on the Company’s website or under the Company’s profile on www.sedar.com for further discussion of these Items, including, where applicable, reconciliations to measures calculated in accordance with IFRS. Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.

Forward Looking Statements

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TransAlta Renewables at a Glance

Note: EBITDA and CAFD are not defined under IFRS. For further information on non-IFRS financial measures we use, see the section entitled “Non-IFRS Measures” contained in our Management Discussion and Analysis

1 Enterprise value calculated as: market capitalization + total debt (book value) + non-controlling interests (book value) - cash and cash equivalents. Balance sheet data as at June 30, 2017 2 Based on closing price on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of August 15, 2017

Enterprise Value1,2 $4.6 Billion Market Cap.2 $3.6 Billion 2017 EBITDA (guidance) $425 - 450 Million 2017 CAFD (guidance) $235 - $260 Million Dividend Yield 6.6% TransAlta’s Ownership 64% # of Assets Net MW Percent of Generation Cash Flow Wind 18 1,248 46% Natural Gas 8 1,081 50% Hydro 13 112 4% Total 40 2,441 100%

Significant Scale Highly Diversified

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Investment Highlights

Highly Diversified 40 facilities across multiple regions and spanning various technologies Highly Contracted Portfolio 12 year weighted average contract life Strong Balance Sheet and access to competitive capital 2.4x Debt/EBITDA Raised $646 million of low cost project debt, with additional capacity Proven track record of growth and valuation creation $2.4 billion of acquisitions since IPO 80% Total Shareholder Return since IPO Strong sponsorship from TransAlta Corporation Excellent source of drop-down and third party growth opportunities

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Highly Contracted Facilities

Akolkolex, BC South Hedland, WA Kent Hills, NB Summerview 1, AB Summerview 2, AB Ardenville, AB Blue Trail, AB Soderglen, AB Macleod Flats, AB Le Nordais, QC New Richmond, QC Taylor, AB Belly River, AB Waterton, AB

  • St. Mary, AB

Cowley North, AB Sinnott, AB Bone Creek, BC Galetta, ON Appleton, ON Moose Rapids, ON Wolfe Island, ON Ragged Chute, ON Solomon, WA Wyoming Wind, WY Castle River, AB Melancthon, ON Misema, ON Parkeston, WA Upper Mamquam, BC Sarnia, ON McBride Lake, AB Southern Cross, WA Pingston, BC 5 10 15 20 25 30

Remaining Contracted Years

Average contract life of ~12 years, based on weighted capacity

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Significant Increase in Cash Available For Distribution

Cash Available for Distribution refers to the amount of cash generated from operations after deducting sustaining capital and distributions to non-controlling interests, excluding the effects of timing and working capital on distributions from subsidiaries of TransAlta in which the Company holds an economic interest and less principal repayments of amortizing debt. Outlook based on expected revenues from PPAs and the sale of green attributes. Renewable energy production from wind/hydro assets expected to range from 3,500 to 3,900 GWh including economic interests. Gas-fired generation provides compensation for capacity and production is not a significant indicator of this business.

$82 $177 $245 $260

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300

2014 2015 2016 2017 Outlook

Millions

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Strong Performance Since IPO

  • ~$2.4 billion in new assets
  • Significantly increased dividend

and public float

  • Added to the S&P/TSX

Composite Index in 2016

  • Completed ~$600 million of

project level financing

  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 RNW S&P TSX

Share Price Performance Since Aug, 2013

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Strong Dividend Growth

$0.75 $0.77 $0.84 $0.88 $0.94 $0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 At IPO 2014 2015 2016 2017

~9% Australian Assets ~5% Three Canadian Projects ~7% South Hedland ~3% Wyoming Wind

(Aug 2013)

Annual Dividend Per Share

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Attractive Dividend Yield

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

1 Based on the closing price as of August 15, 2017. 2 Other companies include Algonquin Power, Brookfield Renewables, Enbridge Income Fund, Innergex, Northland Power, NRG Yield, NextEra Energy Partners, Pattern Energy. 3 Assumes reinvestment of all dividends

Source: FactSet

Average (~5.1%) RNW Peers²

Dividend Yield

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Proven Growth Track Record

2014 144 MW Wyoming wind acquisition 575 MW Australian Assets investment 2015 506 MW Sarnia gas investment 98 MW Le Nordais wind investment 7 MW Ragged Cute hydro investment 2017 150 MW South Hedland gas 17 MW Kent Hills 3 wind expansion

$2.4 billion in investments

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South Hedland Power Station

150 MW Combined Cycle Gas Power Station in Western Australia

  • Commercial operation began in

July 2017

  • Fully contracted until 2042 with

strong counterparties including 75% contracted with Horizon Power (AA+ rating)

  • Expected to generate ~$80

million of EBITDA on an annualized basis

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Kent Hills 3

Expansion of the existing Kent Hills Wind Farm in New Brunswick

  • Five additional turbines adding

17 MW of capacity, bringing total capacity to 167 MW

  • The entire wind farm is now fully

contracted until 2035 with New Brunswick Power

  • Expected to support $240 to

$275 million in project financing

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Drivers of Future Growth

Government Policies and Regulations Renewable targets Carbon Pricing Thermal environmental regulations Competitiveness Low gas prices and abundant supply More cost competitive renewables Technological improvements Customer Requirements Desire for renewable energy Behind-the-fence needs Diversified System Highly dispatchable generation to complement growth in intermittent generation Minimize exposure to any one technology

  • r fuel type
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U.S. Opportunity

  • Wind and solar represent only ~10% of US capacity
  • Natural gas generation needed to replace coal with dispatchable generation

390 328 312 447 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2002 2016

Generation capacity US (GW)

Coal/Other Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Gas

Decline in Coal Wind & Solar

  • nly 10%

Significant Growth in Natural Gas

Source: US Dept. of Energy, Staff Report on electricity Markets and Reliability, August 2017

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Growth & Financing Strategy

  • Primarily focused on North America

and Australia

  • Renewables and gas fired

generation

  • Highly contracted facilities
  • Greenfield, brownfield and

acquisitions

  • Early staged projects are often less

competitive and provide higher returns Strategic Focus

  • $500 million of project debt

potentially available from existing assets

  • Proceeds from Solomon handback
  • Internally generated excess cash

flow

  • New assets can support project

debt

  • $500 million credit facility put in

place at RNW

  • Partners
  • New equity

Potential Source of Capital

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Significant Growth Opportunities

Actively Evaluating with TransAlta over $5 billion in Opportunities Greenfield

  • Near-term: 600 MW of renewable calls in Alberta and

Saskatchewan, and opportunities in Australia and Pacific Northwest

  • Long-term: Over 5,000 MW of additional renewables

potential in Western Canada

Third-party Acquisitions

  • Attractive opportunities in North America
  • Strong cost of capital and balance sheet to compete
  • Proceeds from Solomon can be used to fund growth

Potential Drop-downs from TransAlta

  • 800 MW of hydro in Alberta
  • 400 MW of gas in Alberta & Ontario
  • 90 MW wind and solar in Eastern Canada and the U.S.
  • $1.8 - $2.5 billion Alberta Brazeau pumped hydro project
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Potential Western Canadian Wind/Solar Projects

Edmonton Calgary Saskatoon Regina Hanna Pincher Creek Swift Current

130 MW Garden Plains Wind 200 MW Antelope Coulee Wind 20 MW Cowley Ridge Wind Repower 25 – 50 MW Solar

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TransAlta’s Brazeau Pumped Hydro Opportunity

600 – 900MW

Pumped storage project

$1.8 – 2.5B

investment

Brownfield Advantage

Existing infrastructure (upper reservoir, transmission, reduced cost of project)

Supports System Reliability

Fast-ramping technology Provides firming for other renewables Reduces the amount of thermal bas- load required

 TransAlta advancing its Brazeau pump storage opportunity to

support adoption of renewables and replacement of thermal in Alberta

 Low cost hydro project due to unique location and existing

infrastructure

 Requires long-term power contract to support long-term

investment

 Expected commercial operation in 2025 Existing power house Proposed pumped hydro

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Investment Highlights

Strong Core Business with a proven track record Diversified: Hydro, Wind, Gas; Canada, U.S. and Australia 12 year weighted average contract life 2.4x Debt/EBITDA Raised $646 million of low cost project debt, with additional capacity $2.4 billion of acquisitions since IPO Positioned for growth and further valuation creation 80% Total Shareholder Return since IPO Access to growth capital Source of growth opportunities with TransAlta Corporation sponsorship U.S. market fundamental will drive development opportunities