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TransAlta Corporation National Bank Annual Canadian Energy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
TransAlta Corporation National Bank Annual Canadian Energy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
TransAlta Corporation National Bank Annual Canadian Energy Infrastructure Presentation June 2018 1 Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as forward
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This presentation includes forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs as well as assumptions based on available information and on management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts, but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as “may”, “will”, “can”, “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “project”, “forecast”, “foresee”, “potential”, “enable”, “continue”, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not guarantees of our future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to be materially different from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. In particular, this presentation contains, but is not limited to, forward-looking statements pertaining to: future sources of free cash flow; the conversion of 2,600 MW from coal-to-gas and the timing and benefits thereof, including the optimization of the coal portfolio, the extension of fleet life by 75 years, the extent of emission intensity reductions and the reduced fixed and sustaining costs; annual dividends from TransAlta Renewables; free cash flow in excess of $500 million post-2021; hydro upside, including energy revenue, capacity payment and ancillary revenue; construction of the Tidewater Pipeline; the benefit of co-firing, including reduced carbon and fuel costs; the implementation of the capacity market; continued relationship with TransAlta Renewables; the capital costs associated with the two U.S. wind development projects; the closing of the 29 MW New Hampshire wind project; growth opportunities and ability to realize growth, including the Bighorn expansion, Brazeau energy storage project and Dunvegan; guidance for 2018 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) and cash available for distribution (CAFD); the repowering of existing wind sites between 2021 and 2030; adjusted funds from operations (FFO) targets relative to net debt; and the correct valuation for the coal and coal-to-gas assets that would increase the share price by $5 to $8 per share. Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: legislative or regulatory developments, including as it pertains to the Alberta capacity market and Federal environmental legislation; changes in economic and competitive conditions; inability to secure natural gas supply and the construction of a natural gas pipeline on terms satisfactory to the Company; the introduction of disruptive sources of energy or capacity; changes in the price for natural gas; decreased demand for energy or capacity; availability of financing; fluctuations in market prices; the availability of fuel supplies required to generate electricity, including the availability and cost of natural gas within Alberta; changes to the relationship with, or ownership of, TransAlta Renewables; wind and hydro resources being less than long term average; reductions to our capacity factors; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; risks associated with development projects and acquisitions, including permitting, labour and engineering risk associated with the coal to gas conversions; increased costs or delays in the construction or commissioning of pipelines to the converted units. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of our Management Discussion and Analysis and under the heading “Risk Factors” in our Annual Information Form. Readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this document are made only as of the date hereof and we do not undertake to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or
- therwise, except as required by applicable laws. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect the Corporation's
expectations only as of the date of this presentation. The purpose of the financial outlooks contained in this presentation is to give the reader information about management's current expectations and plans and readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. In light of these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events might occur to a different extent or at a different time than we have described, or might not occur at all. We cannot assure that projected results or events will be achieved. Certain financial information contained in this presentation, including Comparable EBITDA, FFO and CAFD, may not be standard measures defined under International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. These measures should not be considered in isolation
- r as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. For further information on non-IFRS financial measures we use, see the section entitled “Reconciliation
- f Non-IFRS Measures” contained in our most recently filed Management's Discussion and Analysis, filed with Canadian securities regulators on www.sedar.com and the
Securities and Exchange Commission on www.edgar.com. Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.
Forward Looking Statements
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BC WA ON WY QC NB MN AB MA
TransAlta Today
Significant generator with 8,266 MW of capacity Highly contracted (70%) with upside to Alberta market
1 Comparable EBITDA less sustaining capital productivity capital expenditures, reclamation costs, and provisions. It also excludes non-cash mark-to-market gains or losses as well as Energy Marketing and
Corporate Segments.
Diversified operations with over 65 facilities in three countries
AUSTRALIA
Coal / Future CTG Hydro Gas Solar Wind Corporate Offices
2017 SEGMENTED CASH FLOW FROM THE BUSINESS 1 25% 43% 25% 7% Wind / Solar Hydro Gas Coal
PA NH
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Sources of Free Cash Flow
Targeting free cash flow of $500+ million with a strong balance sheet post 2021
Hydro
- Own and operate over 90% of
Alberta’s hydro
- Significant upside potential post
PPA expiry (2021+)
- Critical back-up for renewables
build-out in Alberta
- Potential Brazeau pumped
storage hydro project
Coal-to-Gas
3,313 MW of owned capacity in Alberta
Will optimize the value of the coal portfolio between 2018 to 2020
Convert 2,600 MW of the Alberta coal fleet to clean energy by 2022
Off-coal payment of ~$37 million for the next 13 years. Opportunity to monetize.
Investment in RNW
Diversified long-term contracted assets
Strong balance sheet with access to competitive capital
64% ownership
Receive ~$150 million annually in dividends from RNW
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Today Post PPA (2021+)
Hydro Upside
Comparable hydro assets valued at 12x to 14x EBITDA
Ancillary and Misc. Ancillary and Misc. Energy Revenue Capacity Payment Renewable Credits PPA Payment
$75 - $100 million $225 - $275 Million
Assumptions: Post PPA power price of ~$55/MWh, capacity price of ~$6/kW-month and carbon price of $40/tonne
Post PPA, TransAlta gets full revenue from
energy, ancillary and renewables credits
Balancing Pool receives energy and a
majority of ancillary revenue today
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48% 60% 98% 95% CO2 NOx SO2 Hg
$100 to $200 million of free cash flow annually from Canadian coal post conversions
Cumulative fleet life extended by approximately 75 years Reduced fixed and sustaining costs (~15%) with simplified operations Conversions will take 60 days at a cost of approximately $50 million per unit.
Coal-to-Gas Conversions
LIFE EXTENSION FROM CONVERSIONS (MW) EMISSIONS INTENSITY REDUCTION (%)
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 No Conversion Scenario Convert to Gas
Conversion Timeframe
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Gas Pipeline and Fuel Blending
Sundance and Keephills can consume up to 175 MMcf/d by fuel blending through existing
pipeline which represents ~30% of fuel requirement
New Tidewater Pipeline on track with completion expected by early 2020 Provides further benefits from fuel blending and conversions Initial volumes of 130 MMcf/d with the potential to expand to 440 MMcf/d TransAlta has the option to invest in up to 50% of the pipeline
Fuel blending and conversions creates a competitive advantage by reducing carbon and fuel costs
2018 to 2021 Blending Benefits
- Reduces emissions
- Reduces carbon and fuel costs
- Abundant low cost gas supply
- Ability to scale back mine operations
- Maximizes value of coal assets prior to
capacity market
2021+ Conversion Benefits
- Carbon emissions halved and
particulate emissions are effectively eliminated
- Further reduction in operating and
maintenance costs
- Extends asset life
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Alberta’s Capacity Market
TransAlta is well positioned to compete in a capacity market
The Province endorsed the transition from an energy market to a new framework that includes an energy market and a capacity market. Reason for transition:
- Ensures reliability as Alberta’s electricity system evolves
- Increases stability of prices
- Provides greater revenue certainty for generators
- Maintains competitive market forces and drives innovation and cost discipline
- Supports policy direction and is adaptable for the future
Market generators will be paid through a combination of:
- Competitively auctioned contracts which will pay generators for their fixed costs and
to keep their generating capacity available
- Energy and ancillary revenue from the spot market
The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) is responsible for designing and implementing the capacity market which is anticipated to be in place by late 2021.
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Investment in TransAlta Renewables
1 Based on closing price on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of May 31, 2018. Balance sheet data as at March 31, 2018.
Enterprise Value1 $4.1 Billion Market Cap.1 $3.1 Billion 2018 EBITDA (guidance) $400 - $420 Million 2018 CAFD (guidance) $260 - $290 Million Dividend Yield 7.6% TransAlta’s Ownership 64% # of Assets Owned MW Percent of Generation Cash Flow Wind 20 1,318 46% Natural Gas 7 956 47% Hydro 13 112 5% Solar 1 21 2% Total 41 2,407 100%
Significant Scale Highly Diversified
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TransAlta Renewables Investment Highlights
41 facilities across multiple regions and spanning
various technologies Highly Diversified
12 year weighted average contract life
Highly Contracted Portfolio
2.3x Net Debt/EBITDA Raised over $0.9 billion of low cost project debt, with
additional capacity
$500 million syndicated credit facility
Strong Balance Sheet and Access to Competitive Capital
$3.1 billion of acquisitions since IPO 72% Total Shareholder return since IPO in 2013
Proven Track Record of Growth and Value Creation
Approximately $150 million annually in dividends Opportunity to monetize cash flows from contracted
assets through drop-downs Cash Flows to TransAlta
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29 MW New Hampshire project
Two 20-year PPAs Pending outcome of environmental
permit appeal, construction could start in August
Capital cost of ~US$80 million
US Wind Development Projects
90 MW Pennsylvania project
One 15-year PPA Early stage construction underway Capital cost of ~US$160 million
- All three counterparties have S&P credit ratings of A+ or better
- Commercial operation date in H2/19 for both projects.
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Growth Opportunity Set
TransAlta/TransAlta Renewables well positioned to continue to grow
Alberta natural gas pipeline Potential for 500+ MW of renewables in Alberta and Sask. Behind the fence gas generation in Alberta, BC and Ontario Solar development in Australia and U.S. Significant acquisition opportunities in U.S., Canada, Australia Conversion of 2,500 - 3,000 MW of coal to gas Potential for 4,000 MW of renewables in Alberta Brazeau energy storage project, Bighorn expansion, Dunvegan Repowering of existing wind sites in U.S. and Canada Acquisitions Replacement of ~3,000 MW of converted CTG in Alberta with
greenfield natural gas fired generation and storage
Greenfield solar and wind in U.S. Acquisitions
2018 - 2020 2021 - 2030 2031+
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Significant Improvement in Balance Sheet Strength
TA Recourse $3.4 B TA Recourse $2.1 B TA Recourse $1.2 B TA Non-Recourse RNW Non-Recourse
$0 $1 $2 $3 $4 YE 2015 Q1 2018 2020 Target¹
Targeting TransAlta recourse debt of $1.2 billion in 2020
DEBT COMPONENTS ($ BILLIONS)
Supported by:
- Hydro
- Coal-to-gas
- RNW Investment
1 2020 Target assumes no capital allocated to new growth
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TransAlta Actively Managing External Risks
Risk exposures minimized through strategic plans and financial strength
Strong relationships with political parties; both those in-
power and the opposition
In-depth understanding of industry regulations
Political and Regulatory Uncertainty
Mothballed units to be returned to service Converted units improve competitiveness Participate in the development of renewables projects
High Penetration of Renewables and Build Out of New Gas
Ongoing involvement in the development of market
structure
Improved operational efficiencies and strong balance
sheet provide flexibility for when we enter a capacity market Details Regarding Capacity Market
Key Risks Mitigation Techniques
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Value of Coal Not Being Recognized
Correct valuation for the coal and CTG would increase the share price by $5 to $8 per share
Hydro2 Coal Monetization Renewables and gas not held at RNW PPA Termination payment Market is currently assigning no value to coal assets
TA RNW TA-Excluding RNW
1Includes the market value of TransAlta Renewables and BV of TA Cogen. 2 Hydro valued at $2.6 million per MW. Priced as of May 31, 2018. Balance sheet as at March 31, 2018.
TA Upside
Implies Coal at 6x to 8x EBITDA
$1.9 $3.1 $0.9 $1.3 $2.9 $1.0 $2.2 $0.4 $0.6 $0.2
TA Equity TA Debt, net of cash Preferred Shares NCI¹ RNW Equity RNW Debt Remaining Value Coal Plant
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Visit us at the Investor Centre on TransAlta.com Investor_relations@transalta.com 1-800-387-3598