TransAlta Corporation Investor Presentation May 2017 1 Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TransAlta Corporation Investor Presentation May 2017 1 Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TransAlta Corporation Investor Presentation May 2017 1 Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as forward -looking statements) within the meaning of


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TransAlta Corporation

Investor Presentation May 2017

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This presentation includes forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities

  • legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs as well as assumptions based on available information and on management’s experience and perception of

historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts, but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as “may”, “will”, “can”, “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “project”, “forecast”, “foresee”, “potential”, “enable”, “continue”, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not guarantees of our future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to be materially different from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements pertaining to: our business strategy and goals, including our decisions to shut-down Sundance Unit 1 and mothball Sundance Unit 2 and to convert Sundance Unit 3 to 6 and Keephills Units 1 and 2 to gas and the cost and timing thereof; the potential upside available to our hydro assets following expiry of the power purchase arrangements; TransAlta’s position to participate in the 5,000 MW renewable build-out; our 2017 financial guidance, including Comparable EBITDA, Funds from Operations ("FFO"), Free Cash Flow ("FCF"); the commissioning of South Hedland, including the timing and capital costs thereof, and the incremental EBITDA expected to be generated from South Hedland; statements pertaining to our growth opportunities, including proposed in-service dates and costs for Antelope, Garden Plains and Goonumbla; the Brazeau pumped storage project, including the growth capital estimates and construction and operation date; amount of capacity eligible for conversion and the anticipated reduction to sustaining capital expenditures and operating costs; implications to the Alberta market as a result of the phasing out of coal and the shift to a capacity market, including as it pertains to capacity prices and carbon pricing; the emission reductions realizable following the conversion of coal to gas generation; the anticipated supply mix in 2025; the price

  • f natural gas; the advantages of coal to gas conversions relative to the construction of new combined cycle gas turbines; anticipated benefits following expiry of the Alberta hydro

power purchase arrangement; the source of funding growth opportunity and size of equity investments; target returns on growth opportunities; anticipated benefits to be realized through our sponsorship and shareholdings in TransAlta Renewables; our outlook and priorities; those factors that will contribute to FCF, including the anticipated benefits from Project Greenlight and high margin on Alberta renewables. Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies required to generate electricity, including the costs of natural gas within Alberta; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate; environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic conditions, including interest rates; operational risks involving our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels, water, or wind required to operate our facilities; natural or man-made disasters; the threat of domestic terrorism and cyberattacks; lower than anticipated electricity prices; equipment failure and our ability to carry out, or have completed, repairs, alterations or conversions in a cost-effective manner or timely manner; commodity risk management; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage; our provision for income taxes; legal, regulatory, and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation; outcomes of investigations and disputes; reliance on key personnel; labour relations matters; risks associated with development projects and acquisitions; increased costs or delays in the construction or commissioning of the South Hedland power project; adverse regulatory developments; and any market disruption or changes in market regulation, including changes relating to the implementation of a capacity market. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of our Management Discussion and Analysis and under the heading “Risk Factors” in our Annual Information Form. Readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this document are made only as of the date hereof and we do not undertake to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable laws. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect the Corporation's expectations only as of the date of this news release. The purpose of the financial outlooks contained in this presentation is to give the reader information about management's current expectations and plans and readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. In light of these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events might occur to a different extent or at a different time than we have described, or might not occur at all. We cannot assure that projected results or events will be achieved. Certain financial information contained in this presentation, including Comparable EBITDA, FFO and FCF, may not be standard measures defined under International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. For further information on non-IFRS financial measures we use, see the section entitled “Reconciliation of Non-IFRS Measures” contained in our most recently filed Management's Discussion and Analysis, filed with Canadian securities regulators on www.sedar.com and the Securities and Exchange Commission on www.edgar.com. Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.

Forward Looking Statements

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42% 22% Gas Wind and Solar

$10+ bn Alberta renewables build-out 600 – 900MW Brazeau Pumped Storage Hydro Australian, AB, and SK Renewable Opportunities Low Cost Growth Capital Through RNW

Positioning TransAlta for Growth

1Based on cash flow from generation 2Comparable EBITDA less sustaining capital and excludes Energy Marketing and Corporate Segments 3Based on weighted average gross capacity

60% of Total Cash Flows Are Gas / Wind / Solar

  • n Long-term

Contracts(1) Significant Growth Opportunities New Alberta Market Structure Enhances Asset Value

64% of Cash Flow From Generation driven by Gas, Wind, and Solar

Natural gas / wind / solar portfolio is 87% contracted(3) on a weighted- average capacity basis with a weighted average contract life of 10.5 years(3)

Canada’s largest generator of wind power

Convert Coal Assets to Gas Hydro Assets Capacity Market

Coal-to-Gas (“CTG”) Conversions

Low cost to convert

Extends asset life

Critical stand-by power to support new renewables

Substantial reduction in capital and

  • perating costs

Increased reliability and flexibility

Hydro Assets

Represent 90% of Alberta’s hydro capacity

Substantial upside once Alberta PPAs expire in four years

TransAlta has entered a new phase with substantial growth opportunities

Alberta’s build-out is the largest single-market investment opportunity in North America

As Alberta’s incumbent renewables developer – TransAlta is well-positioned to participate in the 5,000 MW renewable build-out

Significant growth opportunities are already in the pipeline

2016 Cash Flow From Generation(2)

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PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2017-05-23 8:13 AM

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TransAlta’s Global Generation Portfolio

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30% 42% 22% 6%

BC WA ON WY QC NB MN AB MA

TransAlta is Canada’s largest generator of wind power and the largest generator of renewable energy in Alberta

TransAlta At A Glance

2016 Cash Flow From Generation(3)

Note: Comparable EBITDA, Comparable FFO, and Comparable FCF are not defined under IFRS. For further information on non-IFRS financial measures we use, see the section entitled “Non-IFRS Measures” contained in our Management Discussion and Analysis

1 Enterprise value calculated as: market capitalization + consolidated total debt (book value) + preferred shares (book value) + non-controlling interests (book value) - cash and cash equivalents. Balance sheet data as at March 31, 2017 2 Based on closing price on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of April 28, 2017 3 Comparable EBITDA less sustaining capital and excludes Energy Marketing and Corporate Segments 4 Excludes the $80 million adjustment to provisions in the fourth quarter of 2016 relating to our Keephills 1 outage in 2013

MAP OF OPERATIONS

Coal / Future CTG Hydro Gas

AUSTRALIA Exchanges TSX / NYSE Enterprise Value1,2 $8.5B Market Cap.2 $2.0B 2017 Comparable EBITDA (guidance) $1,025 - 1,135 mm 2017 Comparable FFO (guidance) $765 - 855 mm 2017 Comparable FCF (guidance) $300 - 365 mm

Net Installed Capacity: 8,671MW Canadian Coal / Future CTG: 3,593MW U.S. Coal: 1,340MW Gas: 1,473MW Wind / Solar: 1,339MW Hydro: 926MW

Solar Wind Corporate Offices

$830 mm

Coal(4) Gas Wind / Solar Hydro

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Natural Gas

OVERVIEW

100% of generation contracted

9 year weighted average contract life(1,2)

Total net capacity of 1,473MW; 898MW in Canada and 575MW in Australia(1)

Approximately 85 – 90% of our portfolio is not exposed to natural gas price volatility

Majority of contracts are capacity with pass- through arrangements for fuel

Additional risk management through hedging activities

GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

South Hedland COD expected in mid-2017

Counterparties: State-owned utility Horizon Power (75%) and Fortescue Metals Group (25%)

$80 mm of incremental annual EBITDA from $585(3) million capital expenditure

($ millions)

2014 2015 2016 EBITDA $315 $334 $372 Sustaining Capital(5) $63 $31 $26 Cash Flow From Generation(4) $252 $303 $346

1 Includes South Hedland which is in final stages of commissioning 2Based on weighted average gross capacity 3Total estimated project spend is AUD$570 million. Total estimated project spend is stated in CAD$ and includes estimated capitalized interest costs and may change due to fluctuation in foreign exchange rates 4Comparable EBITDA less sustaining capital and excludes Energy Marketing and Corporate Segments 5“Sustaining Capital” primarily includes maintenance capex, routine capital (capital required to maintain our existing generating capacity), mine capital (capital related to mining equipment and land purchases), and finance leases

WESTERN CANADA EASTERN CANADA AUSTRALIA

Gas-fired Generation Assets 42%

Gas

2016 Cash Flow From Generation(4)

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Wind / Solar

OVERVIEW

71% of generation contracted

13 year weighted average contract life(1)

Total net capacity of 1,339MW

Canada’s largest generators of wind power

Experienced developer and operator of wind in Alberta

GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

Near-term opportunities for Alberta and Saskatchewan’s renewables procurement

Antelope Coulee (up to 200MW) - $400 million

Garden Plains (130MW) - $260 million

Cowley Ridge Repower (20MW) - $40 million

Longer-term opportunities as Alberta moves toward adding 5,000MW renewable capacity by 2030

Existing Alberta merchant wind assets will benefit from higher price ($15-20/MWh) caused by provincial carbon pricing in 2018

Australian Solar projects

Goonumbla Solar Farm (80MW) - $160 million

($ millions)

2014 2015 2016 EBITDA $179 $176 $195 Sustaining Capital $12 $13 $12 Cash Flow From Generation $167 $163 $183

WESTERN CANADA EASTERN CANADA WESTERN U.S.

Wind / Solar Assets 42% 22%

Gas Wind and Solar

2016 Cash Flow From Generation

1Based on weighted average gross capacity

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Hydro

OVERVIEW

96% of generation contracted

4 year weighted average contract life(1)

Total net capacity of 926MW

Own and operate over 90% of Alberta’s hydro (834MW)

Ancillary services essential for market stability

GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

Alberta PPAs historically priced below market value – expect significant upside potential post- expiry

Ability to store water allows for increased upside

Brazeau pumped storage hydro project

600 to 900MW at existing hydro site

$1.8 - $2.5 billion in estimated growth capital

Fast-ramping nature supports system reliability as Alberta build-out of intermittent wind occurs

Targeting start of construction by 2020/2021

Planned COD by 2025(2)

($ millions)

2014 2015 2016 EBITDA $87 $73 $82 Sustaining Capital $36 $17 $29 Cash Flow From Generation $51 $56 $53

42% 22% 6%

Gas Wind and Solar Hydro

1Based on weighted average gross capacity 2Subject to securing a long-term contract with the AESO

2016 Cash Flow From Generation

WESTERN CANADA EASTERN CANADA CANADA

Hydro Facilities

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US Coal

OVERVIEW

28% of capacity contracted with Puget Sound Energy which expires in 2025

Centralia facility total net capacity of 1,340MW

Two 670MW units currently scheduled for retirement as coal facilities in 2020 and 2025

Merchant generation sold in US PacNW market

Flexibility to optimize returns

Ability to settle contract with power from other sources (vs. operating) when favorable to do so

Attractive rail transportation agreement in-place

Coal is sourced from three suppliers in the Powder River Basin

GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

Potential for CTG conversions

($ millions)

2014 2015 2016 EBITDA $62 $63 $41 Sustaining Capital $12 $15 $17 Cash Flow From Generation $50 $48 $24

WASHINGTON

Centralia Facility 42% 22% 6% 3%

Gas Wind and Solar Hydro U.S. Coal

2016 Cash Flow From Generation

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Canadian Coal / Future CTG

OVERVIEW

Total net capacity of 3,593MW

22% of Alberta’s total capacity, supplying approximately 30% of Alberta’s energy

76% of generation contracted

PPA’s expire at end of 2020 in advance of the transition to the new capacity market GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

~3,000MW of capacity eligible for conversion at a cost of less than 10% of new CCGT builds

Optimal solution to back-up Alberta’s intermittent wind build out from a policy and economic perspective

Conversions will materially extend economic life of units

Early conversions will drive significant reductions in sustaining capex and operating costs

OFF-COAL AGREEMENT

Government of Alberta annual off-coal payments

  • f $37.4 million totaling $524 million

Opportunity to monetize ($325-375 million)

($ millions)

2014 2015 2016 EBITDA(1) $389 $393 $393 Sustaining Capital $211 $183 $169 Cash Flow From Generation $178 $210 $224

1Excluding adjustment to provisions relating mostly to prior years (e.g., force majeure events such as the Keephills 1 outage in 2013)

ALBERTA

Canadian Coal / Future CTG Facilities 42% 22% 6% 3% 27%

Gas Wind and Solar Hydro U.S. Coal Canadian Coal

2016 Cash Flow From Generation

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PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2017-05-23 8:13 AM

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Alberta’s Power Market Transition: A Multi-Billion Dollar Opportunity

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Summary of Changes Alberta Market Implications

Coal Generation Phase Out

Requirement to eliminate coal emissions by 2030

Replacing 6,200MW of baseload coal with 5,000MW of intermittent renewables

Significant requirement for back-up

CTG conversions most economical (less than 10% of new CCGT capex) and best fit with government policy

Sizable investment opportunity with build out of renewables, supported by subsidies Significant Renewable Procurement

5,000MW of additional renewable capacity by 2030 AB Government providing contracts to support renewables development

Transition From Energy to Capacity Market

Implementation in 2018/2019 First procurement in 2019-2021

CTG units expected to set capacity price below cost of new CCGT Carbon Pricing

Currently estimated carbon pricing estimates

Energy market pricing expected to increase to account for carbon pricing

Increases competitiveness of CTG vs. coal

Significant Changes Driving Alberta Opportunity

Alberta is transitioning away from coal through ambitious renewables goals

$50/Tonne by 2022 $30/Tonne starting in 2018(3)

Energy/AS Capacity Energy/AS

(2) (2) 1For illustrative purposes only. Simple addition of +5,000MW of renewables capacity from current (does not factor in retirements or additions beyond 5,000MW target) 2“AS” refers to Ancillary Services 3Currently expected to be $30 per tonne for everything over performance threshold

2,773 MW 7,773 MW Current 2030

(1)

6,200MW 0MW Current 2030

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Summary of Alberta Opportunity Timing

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023+

400MW Renewables Procurement (First Round) 400MW Target COD (First Round) Renewables Procurement Coal-to-Gas Off-Coal Payments New Market Structure Capacity Market Expected Conversion of Sundance Units 3 to 6 and Keephills Units 1 and 2 Sundance Unit 1 Retired Sundance Unit 2 Mothballed Federal Gas Emissions Regulation Clarity Expected

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Required Coal Retirements Targeted Renewable Capacity Implied Thermal or Pump Storage Hydro Required

Capacity 6,200MW 5,000MW Assumed Capacity Factor 95%(1) 37.5%(1) Capacity Factor Adjusted 5,890MW 1,875MW 4,015MW Estimated Opportunity of Renewables Build(2)

Renewables Buildout Will Require Back-up Generation

1Midpoint of TransAlta’s expectations for 35-40% capacity factors based on current technology 2Assuming $2 mm per MW of wind, $0.1375 mm per MW for coal-to-gas and $1.60 mm per new MW of combined cycle

  • Approx. 4,000MW of new back-up generation or CTG conversions required by 2030

$10B

“We can see that those who invest in renewables and then also have competitive capacity to back them up will be among the most competitive electricity generators.” – Dawn Farrell, TransAlta CEO (Apr-17)

“The key to a smooth transition will be allowing about half of Alberta’s 18 coal-fired plants to be converted to natural gas by changing out the burners in existing boilers.” – Globe & Mail, citing Terry Boston (Nov-16)

$6.4B

new combined cycle

$0.6B

coal-to- gas

vs.

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Current Policies Supportive of CTG Conversions

Policy and consumer pricing concerns supportive of CTG conversions

Pricing carbon is the new reality

CTG conversions provide 40% immediate reduction in emissions compared to status quo

Better positioned for further federal

  • r provincial carbon pricing changes

Public Policy Favors Clean Energy

CTG Conversions

CTG are most economic back up to support intermittent renewables

It will mitigate increasing electricity costs

Subsidies for renewables build out borne by consumer through carbon taxes

Conversions Support Lower Electricity Prices

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Hydro / Wind CCGT CCGT Cogen Cogen

CTG CTG

Coal Coal Simple Cycle Simple Cycle

Other Other

CTG Well-Placed in the Merit Order

1For illustrative purposes only 2Assumes CTG conversions occur for Sundance Units 3-6 and Keephills 1-2, 1,600MW of renewables generation is placed in-service (400MW per year for 4 years), and coal-fired retirements expected pre-2024 occur as scheduled 3Management view of $50 carbon pricing and $3/GJ gas price scenario 4Intertie import capacity into AB: BC-735MW, Sask – 150MW, MATL – 300MW not factored into illustrative merit order

CTG expected to be competitive under future supply mix

Today(1) Illustrative 2024(1,2,3,4) ILLUSTRATIVE MERIT ORDER

Hydro / Wind CCGT CCGT Cogen Cogen Coal Coal Simple Cycle Simple Cycle Other Other

Assuming wind and hydro at full capacity Assuming wind and hydro not dispatching Assuming wind and hydro at full capacity Assuming wind and hydro not dispatching

  • Avg. Demand:

9,989MW Peak Demand 12,763MW Peak Demand 11,500MW

  • Avg. Demand:

9,000MW 

Short-Term Demand: Average system load in 2016 down less than 1% from 2014 levels

Long-Term Demand: Forecasted 1.5% annual load growth would require an additional 3,000MW by 2030 beyond transition related 9,000MW

Supply (MW) Supply (MW) Supply Scenarios Supply Scenarios

Simple Cycle

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Substantial Economic Advantage For CTG Conversions vs. CCGT

  • CTG conversions will be able to enter the market faster, at lower capital cost

and with substantially less risk than new CCGT

Build Cost (per KW) Carbon Tax Ramping Time to Build CTG Conversion $125 – $150 Higher Slower 60 days New Combined Cycle Facility $1,500 – $1,700 Lower Faster 4 – 5 years

CTG build cost (less than 10% of new CCGT) and timing advantages significantly outweigh other operating characteristic disadvantages

Illustrative Heat Rate 11x 7x

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Source: Alberta Energy Regulator, National Energy Board

1Graph represents all Canadian production, but approximately 97% of production driven by BC, AB, and SK

Abundance of natural gas supply expected to keep Alberta prices among lowest in the world into foreseeable future

Abundance of Affordable Natural Gas to Supply CTG

Material excess supply

Opportunity for long-term supply contracts at today’s low pricing

Strong production growth

Focused on liquids (natural gas viewed by-product)

Market access to United States challenged

Alberta gas “backed out” by Marcellus & Utica economics

Producers looking for solutions that maximize netbacks and price certainty for their natural gas as they pursue liquids

  • $1

$2 $3 $4 $5 $6

  • 2.0

4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Natural Gas Price ($/GJ) Canadian Natural Gas Production (bcf/d)

Western Canadian Production AECO C$/GJ (RHS) Nymex $C/GJ (RHS) Lack of local Western Canadian demand and export options driving a fundamental disconnect between AB and US Markets, putting long term downward pressure on AB gas price

Historical Forecast

(1)

Increase of ~12% in production by 2026

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New Market Structure Supports CTG Conversions

Energy Market Capacity Market

KEY MARKET PRINCIPLES WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE MARKET

Energy price clears based on marginal cost

  • f marginal producer

CTG and/or coal likely to be marginal producer most of the time between 2021 – 2025 (see slide 16)

Energy market expected to respond to changes in natural gas and carbon prices

Margin with CTG units are better than coal margin under most scenarios (gas price/carbon taxes)

CTG requires low capital investment ($50 million per unit + life extension costs)

Cash flow from existing assets could be maintained with a capacity price in the $8 – $10/KW-month range(1)

New CCGT requires large upfront capital costs (est. $600-700 mm for 400MW)

New CCGT likely requires high confidence that capacity price will be at a minimum of $12 - $14/KW-month for many years(1)

CTG conversions will require much lower capacity payments than new CCGT

Note: Illustrative calculation of required capacity prices for CTG = Capacity revenue required (cash flow target, fixed OM&A, sustaining capital and return of and on conversion capital) / 12 months / committed capacity

1Assumming $50 carbon taxes and $3/GJ gas price

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Timeframe

“Fuel switching is an attractive and economical option for utilities that must maintain a certain generating capacity in their fleet […]” – Power Engineering “A number of coal plants nationwide have converted to natural gas, a move that uses much of the same infrastructure but involves different economics, less pollution […]” – Midwest Energy News

NORTH AMERICAN CTG CONVERSIONS MW Converted

Not a new concept - many North American examples of CTG conversion

CTG Conversions: Proven Technology

Harding Street Unit 7 2016 450MW Joliet Unit 7/8 2016 1,326MW(1) Shawville Unit 3/4 2015/2016 376MW

2 2 5 10 26 18

  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 MW Converted Conversions

(# Completed)

1Capacity for Unit 6 (290MW), Unit 7 (518MW), and Unit 8 (518MW). Units 7 and 8 are most similar to TransAlta’s planned conversions

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Factors Driving Early CTG Conversion

Early conversion provides TransAlta with superior asset flexibility, reduced risk, and enhanced capital efficiency

Early Conversion Benefits

Expected Timing 2021-2023 Expected Near-Term Carbon Costs ~70% savings upon conversion Operating Expenses and Sustaining Capital Significant savings upon conversion driven by lower fixed operating expenses and sustaining capital expenditures (including avoidance of Clean Air Strategic Alliance (CASA) compliance capital expenditures) Operating Flexibility Faster CTG ramp-up, ability to turn unneeded plants “off” and avoid unnecessary

  • perating expenses will drive improved capacity market competitiveness

Reliability Improvements Improved reliability critical in a capacity market with performance obligations CTG expected to operate more reliably than coal units Gas Pricing Benefit from currently low natural gas pricing environment Policy Implications Political and social influence trending to less carbon, CTG better positioned for potential increases in carbon pricing

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CTG and Market Redesign Support Coal Cash Flows

CTG expected to replace and potentially improve existing PPA cash flow

2014 High Flat $178 mm $210 mm $224 mm

CASH FLOW FROM GENERATION

(CANADIAN COAL VS. CTG) 2015 2016 CTG

CTG conversions expected to replace and potentially improve cash flow from existing Canadian Coal

Alberta PPAs currently earning capacity- equivalent price of approximately $10-12/KW- month and negative implied energy margins(1)

CTG conversion expected to result in significantly lower operating costs and sustaining capital going-forward

Approximately $8-10/KW-month required to maintain cash flow under a capacity market construct assuming no margin earned in energy markets(1)

1Illustrative calculation of required capacity prices for CTG = Capacity revenue required (Cash flow target, fixed OM&A, sustaining capital and return of and on conversion capital) / 12 months / committed capacity

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Hydro EBITDA Expected to Increase Post-PPA

 Under new Alberta market construct hydro will have ability to earn both energy

and capacity revenue

 Storage hydro will be able to bid higher assumed capacity than run-of-river  Potential to unlock significantly higher EBITDA under reasonable power price

environments

 +$30/MWh energy prices could result in material EBITDA uplift from those

recently achieved under Alberta PPA Potential for significant increase to cash flows in new market construct once current Alberta Hydro PPA expires

$162 mm

EBITDA 5-Yr illustrative average without the PPA

$77 mm

EBITDA 5-Yr average with PPA

$49/MWh 5-year Average AB Power Price

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Strongly Positioned For The Future

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Positioned to Seize Opportunities in Targeted Markets

1Estimated project expenditures are AUD$570 million. Total estimated project expenditures are stated in CAD$ and include estimated capital interest costs. The total estimated project expenditures may change due to fluctuations in

foreign exchange rates. Approximately $155 million in project expenditures relate to infrastructure acquisition and network, water and gas access deposits, and prepayments, most of which is due to be paid on commissioning

Potential for $3B to $4B of contracted growth opportunities over the next 5-10 years

Opportunity Capital Expenditures Expected COD Capacity

South Hedland $210 - 230 mm(1)

(Cost to Complete)

Mid-2017 150MW

Longer-Term Medium-Term Short-Term

$1.8 - $2.5B 2025 600 – 900MW Brazeau Pump Storage CTG Conversions $50 mm/unit TBD 662MW $10B

  • f potential

2020 - 2030 4,600MW

  • f potential

Other Alberta Renewables Mid-2018 $160 mm 80MW Goonumbla Solar Farm Alberta Wind Projects December 2019 $300 mm 150MW Saskatchewan Wind $400 mm December 2019 200MW CTG Conversions 2021 - 2023 $50 mm/unit 2,371MW

Contracted projects can be funded with 60-80% leverage

$0.8 to $1.0 billion of equity investment

Represents investment extending to 2025 (2017-2019 equity requirements not material given project level debt)

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Australian Opportunities

1Total estimated project spend is AUD$570 million. Total estimated project spend is stated in CAD$ and includes estimated capital interest costs and may change due to fluctuation in foreign exchange rates

TransAlta continues to build on already its significant Australian presence

Perth South Hedland Sydney

AUSTRALIA

Goonumbla Gas Solar

Goonumbla Solar Farm Location 350km North-West of Sydney in New South Wales Capacity 80MW Proposed In-Service Date mid-2018 Capital Costs $160 mm Other Details

Site is permitted under the New South Wales Major Project Planning Development process

Engaged Tier 1 EPC contractor to undertake construction and operation and maintenance

Currently securing offtake agreements South Hedland Location South Hedland, Western Australia Capacity 150MW Expected In-Service Date mid-2017 Capital Costs $585 mm(1) Other Details

Expected to generate $80 mm of EBITDA on an annualized basis

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Garden Plains and Cowley Ridge Repower to be submitted in up-coming Alberta procurement; Antelope Coulee submitted to Saskatchewan’s

Canadian Wind Projects

Edmonton Calgary Saskatoon Regina Hanna Pincher Creek Swift Current

Garden Plains Wind

Location 30 km north of Hanna, Alberta Capacity 130MW Proposed In-Service Date December 2019 Capital Costs $260 mm Other Details Wind resource data dating back to 2009 Partnerships with landowners since 2011

Antelope Coulee Wind

Location 35 km southwest of Swift Current, Saskatchewan Capacity Up to 200MW Proposed In-Service Date December 2019 Capital Costs $400 mm Other Details Wind resource data dating back to 2008

Cowley Ridge Wind Repower

Location Northwest of Pincher Creek, Alberta Capacity 20MW Proposed In-Service Date December 2019 Capital Costs $40 mm Other Details Site of original Cowley Ridge Wind Farm which was built in 1993 and dismantled in 2016 Long-term understanding of wind resource

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Brazeau Investment Supports System Reliability

600 – 900MW

pumped storage project

$1.8 – 2.5B

investment

Brownfield Advantage

existing infrastructure (upper reservoir, transmission, reduced cost of project)

2020 / 2021

start of construction upon receipt of a long-term AESO contract Fast-ramping nature

Supports System Reliability

as wind build-out occurs

955 – 1,255MW

new capacity of Brazeau post-completion

Expected to reach COD in 2025 - large storage best positioned to support build of 5,000MW of intermittent renewables

1 New Turbines 2 New Dam 1 2

1Subject to securing a long-term contract with the AESO

 Developing Brazeau pump storage solution to support

adoption of renewables in Alberta

 Currently engaging in discussions with the Government of

Alberta in pursuit of a long-term contract

 Environmental studies currently underway  Expected commercial operation date in 2025(1)

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Enhancing Growth Through Sponsored Vehicle

Return uplift by developing assets in TA then crystalizing value through RNW

1Net generating capacity 2Including Class B shares

COMMENTARY ADVANTAGE FOR TRANSALTA

Attractive portfolio of highly contracted renewables and gas-fired assets (2,440MW capacity)(1)

Current dividend yield of 5.6% with expected near-term growth of 6-7%

Majority shareholder (64% own.)(2) in $3.9B market cap(3) entity

Provides stable and predictable dividends to TransAlta

Low leverage (21% net debt / EV)(4) after strong potential for growth

Significant acquisition capacity (both third- party acquisitions and drop-downs)

Market premium multiple for assets with strong, stable cash flows

11.4x EV/EBITDA (2017)

Access to competitive cost of capital

6.5% AFFO Yield (2017)

Ability to compete for third party acquisitions and new opportunities

Ability to align risk/return profile with appropriate entity

Provides natural home for new renewables investments

Strong Balance Sheet Premium for Strong, Stable Cash Flows Significant Source of Value

3Based on April 28, 2017 closing share price ($15.59) and including Class B shares 4Net debt based on $4.9B EV and $3.9B market cap. EV does not include capital required to complete South Hedland Project

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PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2017-05-23 8:13 AM

30 30

Outlook and Priorities

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Tangible Factors Driving Cash Flow Growth

Targeting in excess of $400 million of Free Cash Flow for 2018 - 2020

$250 mm(1) $300 mm $365 mm $400 mm

2016 2017 Outlook

South Hedland (Partial Year) MSA Settlement Off-Coal Payment Lower Margin on Alberta Coal South Hedland (Full Year) Project Greenlight Interest Expense Higher Margin on Alberta Renewables Mississauga and Poplar Creek Sundance Units 1 & 2 Hydro Upside Brazeau Wind RFP in Alberta and Saskatchewan Other LT Growth

$440 mm

1Includes MSA settlement payment, productivity capital, and Lakeswind tax equity

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$400 $520 $700 $167 $400 $400 $296

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-2040 USD CAD

1 2

Proactively Addressing Up-coming Debt Maturities

1Debt related to RNW 2Includes USD$20 million of debt related to RNW

Maturities to be settled with existing liquidity Maturities to be settled with non-recourse debt / FCF / potential off-coal monetization

3.0x 4.6x 4.3x 4.1x 3.8x 3.6x 3.5x 20% 25% 16% 17% 18% 17% 18%

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Target Adjusted Net Debt to Comparable EBITDA Adjusted FFO to Adjusted Net Debt REDUCING LEVERAGE ACTIVELY MANAGING MATURITIES

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33 33

2016 2017

Work Collaboratively with Government

MOU to work collaboratively to advance the objectives

  • f the Alberta Climate Leadership Plan:

CTG conversions

Support for renewables

Opportunity under a capacity market

Work with Alberta Government to secure a long-term contract for Brazeau

Contribute to the design of a new capacity market

Establish terms and conditions for CTG conversion

Operational Excellence

Reduced OM&A costs by $20 million y-o-y through improved mine planning and methodologies, reduced equipment requirements and optimized contractor usage

Continue to lead on delivering strong operational, safety and financial performance

Accelerate “Project GreenLight”

Increase Financial Flexibility

Entered into off-coal agreement with Government of Alberta for $524 million over 14 years

Raised $360 million of project debt and increased liquidity to $1.7 billion as at December 31, 2016

Met 2016 guidance for comparable EBITDA(1), FFO and FCF; at the high end of FCF outlook range

Reposition capital structure through $700 to $900 million of project-level debt over next 12 to 15 months

Repayment of 2017 maturities with existing liquidity

Comparable FCF of $300 to $365 million in 2017 and target Comparable FCF of $400 to $440 mm by 2018 - 2020

Execute strategy to continue strengthening balance sheet for next phase of growth plans

Strategic Growth

Prepare for 2017 Alberta renewables procurement

Analyze CTG conversion potential

Announced Brazeau project development

Continued to grow RNW through drop-downs and South Hedland completion

Commission South Hedland (mid-2017)

Grow renewables through procurements in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Australia

Take steps to secure CTG conversion gas supply

Continue to advance Brazeau development

Executing Our Strategic Objectives

1Excluding adjustment to provisions relating mostly to prior years