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TransAlta Corporation Investor Presentation May 2017 1 Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
TransAlta Corporation Investor Presentation May 2017 1 Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
TransAlta Corporation Investor Presentation May 2017 1 Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as forward -looking statements) within the meaning of
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This presentation includes forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities
- legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs as well as assumptions based on available information and on management’s experience and perception of
historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts, but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as “may”, “will”, “can”, “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “project”, “forecast”, “foresee”, “potential”, “enable”, “continue”, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not guarantees of our future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to be materially different from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements pertaining to: our business strategy and goals, including our decisions to shut-down Sundance Unit 1 and mothball Sundance Unit 2 and to convert Sundance Unit 3 to 6 and Keephills Units 1 and 2 to gas and the cost and timing thereof; the potential upside available to our hydro assets following expiry of the power purchase arrangements; TransAlta’s position to participate in the 5,000 MW renewable build-out; our 2017 financial guidance, including Comparable EBITDA, Funds from Operations ("FFO"), Free Cash Flow ("FCF"); the commissioning of South Hedland, including the timing and capital costs thereof, and the incremental EBITDA expected to be generated from South Hedland; statements pertaining to our growth opportunities, including proposed in-service dates and costs for Antelope, Garden Plains and Goonumbla; the Brazeau pumped storage project, including the growth capital estimates and construction and operation date; amount of capacity eligible for conversion and the anticipated reduction to sustaining capital expenditures and operating costs; implications to the Alberta market as a result of the phasing out of coal and the shift to a capacity market, including as it pertains to capacity prices and carbon pricing; the emission reductions realizable following the conversion of coal to gas generation; the anticipated supply mix in 2025; the price
- f natural gas; the advantages of coal to gas conversions relative to the construction of new combined cycle gas turbines; anticipated benefits following expiry of the Alberta hydro
power purchase arrangement; the source of funding growth opportunity and size of equity investments; target returns on growth opportunities; anticipated benefits to be realized through our sponsorship and shareholdings in TransAlta Renewables; our outlook and priorities; those factors that will contribute to FCF, including the anticipated benefits from Project Greenlight and high margin on Alberta renewables. Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies required to generate electricity, including the costs of natural gas within Alberta; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate; environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic conditions, including interest rates; operational risks involving our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels, water, or wind required to operate our facilities; natural or man-made disasters; the threat of domestic terrorism and cyberattacks; lower than anticipated electricity prices; equipment failure and our ability to carry out, or have completed, repairs, alterations or conversions in a cost-effective manner or timely manner; commodity risk management; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage; our provision for income taxes; legal, regulatory, and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation; outcomes of investigations and disputes; reliance on key personnel; labour relations matters; risks associated with development projects and acquisitions; increased costs or delays in the construction or commissioning of the South Hedland power project; adverse regulatory developments; and any market disruption or changes in market regulation, including changes relating to the implementation of a capacity market. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of our Management Discussion and Analysis and under the heading “Risk Factors” in our Annual Information Form. Readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this document are made only as of the date hereof and we do not undertake to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable laws. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect the Corporation's expectations only as of the date of this news release. The purpose of the financial outlooks contained in this presentation is to give the reader information about management's current expectations and plans and readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. In light of these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events might occur to a different extent or at a different time than we have described, or might not occur at all. We cannot assure that projected results or events will be achieved. Certain financial information contained in this presentation, including Comparable EBITDA, FFO and FCF, may not be standard measures defined under International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. For further information on non-IFRS financial measures we use, see the section entitled “Reconciliation of Non-IFRS Measures” contained in our most recently filed Management's Discussion and Analysis, filed with Canadian securities regulators on www.sedar.com and the Securities and Exchange Commission on www.edgar.com. Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.
Forward Looking Statements
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42% 22% Gas Wind and Solar
$10+ bn Alberta renewables build-out 600 – 900MW Brazeau Pumped Storage Hydro Australian, AB, and SK Renewable Opportunities Low Cost Growth Capital Through RNW
Positioning TransAlta for Growth
1Based on cash flow from generation 2Comparable EBITDA less sustaining capital and excludes Energy Marketing and Corporate Segments 3Based on weighted average gross capacity
60% of Total Cash Flows Are Gas / Wind / Solar
- n Long-term
Contracts(1) Significant Growth Opportunities New Alberta Market Structure Enhances Asset Value
64% of Cash Flow From Generation driven by Gas, Wind, and Solar
Natural gas / wind / solar portfolio is 87% contracted(3) on a weighted- average capacity basis with a weighted average contract life of 10.5 years(3)
Canada’s largest generator of wind power
Convert Coal Assets to Gas Hydro Assets Capacity Market
Coal-to-Gas (“CTG”) Conversions
Low cost to convert
Extends asset life
Critical stand-by power to support new renewables
Substantial reduction in capital and
- perating costs
Increased reliability and flexibility
Hydro Assets
Represent 90% of Alberta’s hydro capacity
Substantial upside once Alberta PPAs expire in four years
TransAlta has entered a new phase with substantial growth opportunities
Alberta’s build-out is the largest single-market investment opportunity in North America
As Alberta’s incumbent renewables developer – TransAlta is well-positioned to participate in the 5,000 MW renewable build-out
Significant growth opportunities are already in the pipeline
2016 Cash Flow From Generation(2)
PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2017-05-23 8:13 AM
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TransAlta’s Global Generation Portfolio
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30% 42% 22% 6%
BC WA ON WY QC NB MN AB MA
TransAlta is Canada’s largest generator of wind power and the largest generator of renewable energy in Alberta
TransAlta At A Glance
2016 Cash Flow From Generation(3)
Note: Comparable EBITDA, Comparable FFO, and Comparable FCF are not defined under IFRS. For further information on non-IFRS financial measures we use, see the section entitled “Non-IFRS Measures” contained in our Management Discussion and Analysis
1 Enterprise value calculated as: market capitalization + consolidated total debt (book value) + preferred shares (book value) + non-controlling interests (book value) - cash and cash equivalents. Balance sheet data as at March 31, 2017 2 Based on closing price on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of April 28, 2017 3 Comparable EBITDA less sustaining capital and excludes Energy Marketing and Corporate Segments 4 Excludes the $80 million adjustment to provisions in the fourth quarter of 2016 relating to our Keephills 1 outage in 2013MAP OF OPERATIONS
Coal / Future CTG Hydro Gas
AUSTRALIA Exchanges TSX / NYSE Enterprise Value1,2 $8.5B Market Cap.2 $2.0B 2017 Comparable EBITDA (guidance) $1,025 - 1,135 mm 2017 Comparable FFO (guidance) $765 - 855 mm 2017 Comparable FCF (guidance) $300 - 365 mm
Net Installed Capacity: 8,671MW Canadian Coal / Future CTG: 3,593MW U.S. Coal: 1,340MW Gas: 1,473MW Wind / Solar: 1,339MW Hydro: 926MW
Solar Wind Corporate Offices
$830 mm
Coal(4) Gas Wind / Solar Hydro
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Natural Gas
OVERVIEW
100% of generation contracted
9 year weighted average contract life(1,2)
Total net capacity of 1,473MW; 898MW in Canada and 575MW in Australia(1)
Approximately 85 – 90% of our portfolio is not exposed to natural gas price volatility
Majority of contracts are capacity with pass- through arrangements for fuel
Additional risk management through hedging activities
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
South Hedland COD expected in mid-2017
Counterparties: State-owned utility Horizon Power (75%) and Fortescue Metals Group (25%)
$80 mm of incremental annual EBITDA from $585(3) million capital expenditure
($ millions)
2014 2015 2016 EBITDA $315 $334 $372 Sustaining Capital(5) $63 $31 $26 Cash Flow From Generation(4) $252 $303 $346
1 Includes South Hedland which is in final stages of commissioning 2Based on weighted average gross capacity 3Total estimated project spend is AUD$570 million. Total estimated project spend is stated in CAD$ and includes estimated capitalized interest costs and may change due to fluctuation in foreign exchange rates 4Comparable EBITDA less sustaining capital and excludes Energy Marketing and Corporate Segments 5“Sustaining Capital” primarily includes maintenance capex, routine capital (capital required to maintain our existing generating capacity), mine capital (capital related to mining equipment and land purchases), and finance leases
WESTERN CANADA EASTERN CANADA AUSTRALIA
Gas-fired Generation Assets 42%
Gas
2016 Cash Flow From Generation(4)
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Wind / Solar
OVERVIEW
71% of generation contracted
13 year weighted average contract life(1)
Total net capacity of 1,339MW
Canada’s largest generators of wind power
Experienced developer and operator of wind in Alberta
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Near-term opportunities for Alberta and Saskatchewan’s renewables procurement
Antelope Coulee (up to 200MW) - $400 million
Garden Plains (130MW) - $260 million
Cowley Ridge Repower (20MW) - $40 million
Longer-term opportunities as Alberta moves toward adding 5,000MW renewable capacity by 2030
Existing Alberta merchant wind assets will benefit from higher price ($15-20/MWh) caused by provincial carbon pricing in 2018
Australian Solar projects
Goonumbla Solar Farm (80MW) - $160 million
($ millions)
2014 2015 2016 EBITDA $179 $176 $195 Sustaining Capital $12 $13 $12 Cash Flow From Generation $167 $163 $183
WESTERN CANADA EASTERN CANADA WESTERN U.S.
Wind / Solar Assets 42% 22%
Gas Wind and Solar
2016 Cash Flow From Generation
1Based on weighted average gross capacity
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Hydro
OVERVIEW
96% of generation contracted
4 year weighted average contract life(1)
Total net capacity of 926MW
Own and operate over 90% of Alberta’s hydro (834MW)
Ancillary services essential for market stability
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Alberta PPAs historically priced below market value – expect significant upside potential post- expiry
Ability to store water allows for increased upside
Brazeau pumped storage hydro project
600 to 900MW at existing hydro site
$1.8 - $2.5 billion in estimated growth capital
Fast-ramping nature supports system reliability as Alberta build-out of intermittent wind occurs
Targeting start of construction by 2020/2021
Planned COD by 2025(2)
($ millions)
2014 2015 2016 EBITDA $87 $73 $82 Sustaining Capital $36 $17 $29 Cash Flow From Generation $51 $56 $53
42% 22% 6%
Gas Wind and Solar Hydro
1Based on weighted average gross capacity 2Subject to securing a long-term contract with the AESO
2016 Cash Flow From Generation
WESTERN CANADA EASTERN CANADA CANADA
Hydro Facilities
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US Coal
OVERVIEW
28% of capacity contracted with Puget Sound Energy which expires in 2025
Centralia facility total net capacity of 1,340MW
Two 670MW units currently scheduled for retirement as coal facilities in 2020 and 2025
Merchant generation sold in US PacNW market
Flexibility to optimize returns
Ability to settle contract with power from other sources (vs. operating) when favorable to do so
Attractive rail transportation agreement in-place
Coal is sourced from three suppliers in the Powder River Basin
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Potential for CTG conversions
($ millions)
2014 2015 2016 EBITDA $62 $63 $41 Sustaining Capital $12 $15 $17 Cash Flow From Generation $50 $48 $24
WASHINGTON
Centralia Facility 42% 22% 6% 3%
Gas Wind and Solar Hydro U.S. Coal
2016 Cash Flow From Generation
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Canadian Coal / Future CTG
OVERVIEW
Total net capacity of 3,593MW
22% of Alberta’s total capacity, supplying approximately 30% of Alberta’s energy
76% of generation contracted
PPA’s expire at end of 2020 in advance of the transition to the new capacity market GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
~3,000MW of capacity eligible for conversion at a cost of less than 10% of new CCGT builds
Optimal solution to back-up Alberta’s intermittent wind build out from a policy and economic perspective
Conversions will materially extend economic life of units
Early conversions will drive significant reductions in sustaining capex and operating costs
OFF-COAL AGREEMENT
Government of Alberta annual off-coal payments
- f $37.4 million totaling $524 million
Opportunity to monetize ($325-375 million)
($ millions)
2014 2015 2016 EBITDA(1) $389 $393 $393 Sustaining Capital $211 $183 $169 Cash Flow From Generation $178 $210 $224
1Excluding adjustment to provisions relating mostly to prior years (e.g., force majeure events such as the Keephills 1 outage in 2013)
ALBERTA
Canadian Coal / Future CTG Facilities 42% 22% 6% 3% 27%
Gas Wind and Solar Hydro U.S. Coal Canadian Coal
2016 Cash Flow From Generation
PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2017-05-23 8:13 AM
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Alberta’s Power Market Transition: A Multi-Billion Dollar Opportunity
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Summary of Changes Alberta Market Implications
Coal Generation Phase Out
Requirement to eliminate coal emissions by 2030
Replacing 6,200MW of baseload coal with 5,000MW of intermittent renewables
Significant requirement for back-up
CTG conversions most economical (less than 10% of new CCGT capex) and best fit with government policy
Sizable investment opportunity with build out of renewables, supported by subsidies Significant Renewable Procurement
5,000MW of additional renewable capacity by 2030 AB Government providing contracts to support renewables development
Transition From Energy to Capacity Market
Implementation in 2018/2019 First procurement in 2019-2021
CTG units expected to set capacity price below cost of new CCGT Carbon Pricing
Currently estimated carbon pricing estimates
Energy market pricing expected to increase to account for carbon pricing
Increases competitiveness of CTG vs. coal
Significant Changes Driving Alberta Opportunity
Alberta is transitioning away from coal through ambitious renewables goals
$50/Tonne by 2022 $30/Tonne starting in 2018(3)
Energy/AS Capacity Energy/AS
(2) (2) 1For illustrative purposes only. Simple addition of +5,000MW of renewables capacity from current (does not factor in retirements or additions beyond 5,000MW target) 2“AS” refers to Ancillary Services 3Currently expected to be $30 per tonne for everything over performance threshold
2,773 MW 7,773 MW Current 2030
(1)
6,200MW 0MW Current 2030
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Summary of Alberta Opportunity Timing
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023+
400MW Renewables Procurement (First Round) 400MW Target COD (First Round) Renewables Procurement Coal-to-Gas Off-Coal Payments New Market Structure Capacity Market Expected Conversion of Sundance Units 3 to 6 and Keephills Units 1 and 2 Sundance Unit 1 Retired Sundance Unit 2 Mothballed Federal Gas Emissions Regulation Clarity Expected
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Required Coal Retirements Targeted Renewable Capacity Implied Thermal or Pump Storage Hydro Required
Capacity 6,200MW 5,000MW Assumed Capacity Factor 95%(1) 37.5%(1) Capacity Factor Adjusted 5,890MW 1,875MW 4,015MW Estimated Opportunity of Renewables Build(2)
Renewables Buildout Will Require Back-up Generation
1Midpoint of TransAlta’s expectations for 35-40% capacity factors based on current technology 2Assuming $2 mm per MW of wind, $0.1375 mm per MW for coal-to-gas and $1.60 mm per new MW of combined cycle
- Approx. 4,000MW of new back-up generation or CTG conversions required by 2030
$10B
“We can see that those who invest in renewables and then also have competitive capacity to back them up will be among the most competitive electricity generators.” – Dawn Farrell, TransAlta CEO (Apr-17)
“The key to a smooth transition will be allowing about half of Alberta’s 18 coal-fired plants to be converted to natural gas by changing out the burners in existing boilers.” – Globe & Mail, citing Terry Boston (Nov-16)
$6.4B
new combined cycle
$0.6B
coal-to- gas
vs.
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Current Policies Supportive of CTG Conversions
Policy and consumer pricing concerns supportive of CTG conversions
Pricing carbon is the new reality
CTG conversions provide 40% immediate reduction in emissions compared to status quo
Better positioned for further federal
- r provincial carbon pricing changes
Public Policy Favors Clean Energy
CTG Conversions
CTG are most economic back up to support intermittent renewables
It will mitigate increasing electricity costs
Subsidies for renewables build out borne by consumer through carbon taxes
Conversions Support Lower Electricity Prices
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Hydro / Wind CCGT CCGT Cogen Cogen
CTG CTG
Coal Coal Simple Cycle Simple Cycle
Other Other
CTG Well-Placed in the Merit Order
1For illustrative purposes only 2Assumes CTG conversions occur for Sundance Units 3-6 and Keephills 1-2, 1,600MW of renewables generation is placed in-service (400MW per year for 4 years), and coal-fired retirements expected pre-2024 occur as scheduled 3Management view of $50 carbon pricing and $3/GJ gas price scenario 4Intertie import capacity into AB: BC-735MW, Sask – 150MW, MATL – 300MW not factored into illustrative merit order
CTG expected to be competitive under future supply mix
Today(1) Illustrative 2024(1,2,3,4) ILLUSTRATIVE MERIT ORDER
Hydro / Wind CCGT CCGT Cogen Cogen Coal Coal Simple Cycle Simple Cycle Other Other
Assuming wind and hydro at full capacity Assuming wind and hydro not dispatching Assuming wind and hydro at full capacity Assuming wind and hydro not dispatching
- Avg. Demand:
9,989MW Peak Demand 12,763MW Peak Demand 11,500MW
- Avg. Demand:
9,000MW
Short-Term Demand: Average system load in 2016 down less than 1% from 2014 levels
Long-Term Demand: Forecasted 1.5% annual load growth would require an additional 3,000MW by 2030 beyond transition related 9,000MW
Supply (MW) Supply (MW) Supply Scenarios Supply Scenarios
Simple Cycle
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Substantial Economic Advantage For CTG Conversions vs. CCGT
- CTG conversions will be able to enter the market faster, at lower capital cost
and with substantially less risk than new CCGT
Build Cost (per KW) Carbon Tax Ramping Time to Build CTG Conversion $125 – $150 Higher Slower 60 days New Combined Cycle Facility $1,500 – $1,700 Lower Faster 4 – 5 years
CTG build cost (less than 10% of new CCGT) and timing advantages significantly outweigh other operating characteristic disadvantages
Illustrative Heat Rate 11x 7x
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Source: Alberta Energy Regulator, National Energy Board
1Graph represents all Canadian production, but approximately 97% of production driven by BC, AB, and SK
Abundance of natural gas supply expected to keep Alberta prices among lowest in the world into foreseeable future
Abundance of Affordable Natural Gas to Supply CTG
Material excess supply
Opportunity for long-term supply contracts at today’s low pricing
Strong production growth
Focused on liquids (natural gas viewed by-product)
Market access to United States challenged
Alberta gas “backed out” by Marcellus & Utica economics
Producers looking for solutions that maximize netbacks and price certainty for their natural gas as they pursue liquids
- $1
$2 $3 $4 $5 $6
- 2.0
4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Natural Gas Price ($/GJ) Canadian Natural Gas Production (bcf/d)
Western Canadian Production AECO C$/GJ (RHS) Nymex $C/GJ (RHS) Lack of local Western Canadian demand and export options driving a fundamental disconnect between AB and US Markets, putting long term downward pressure on AB gas price
Historical Forecast
(1)
Increase of ~12% in production by 2026
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New Market Structure Supports CTG Conversions
Energy Market Capacity Market
KEY MARKET PRINCIPLES WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE MARKET
Energy price clears based on marginal cost
- f marginal producer
CTG and/or coal likely to be marginal producer most of the time between 2021 – 2025 (see slide 16)
Energy market expected to respond to changes in natural gas and carbon prices
Margin with CTG units are better than coal margin under most scenarios (gas price/carbon taxes)
CTG requires low capital investment ($50 million per unit + life extension costs)
Cash flow from existing assets could be maintained with a capacity price in the $8 – $10/KW-month range(1)
New CCGT requires large upfront capital costs (est. $600-700 mm for 400MW)
New CCGT likely requires high confidence that capacity price will be at a minimum of $12 - $14/KW-month for many years(1)
CTG conversions will require much lower capacity payments than new CCGT
Note: Illustrative calculation of required capacity prices for CTG = Capacity revenue required (cash flow target, fixed OM&A, sustaining capital and return of and on conversion capital) / 12 months / committed capacity
1Assumming $50 carbon taxes and $3/GJ gas price
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Timeframe
“Fuel switching is an attractive and economical option for utilities that must maintain a certain generating capacity in their fleet […]” – Power Engineering “A number of coal plants nationwide have converted to natural gas, a move that uses much of the same infrastructure but involves different economics, less pollution […]” – Midwest Energy News
NORTH AMERICAN CTG CONVERSIONS MW Converted
Not a new concept - many North American examples of CTG conversion
CTG Conversions: Proven Technology
Harding Street Unit 7 2016 450MW Joliet Unit 7/8 2016 1,326MW(1) Shawville Unit 3/4 2015/2016 376MW
2 2 5 10 26 18
- 1,000
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 MW Converted Conversions
(# Completed)
1Capacity for Unit 6 (290MW), Unit 7 (518MW), and Unit 8 (518MW). Units 7 and 8 are most similar to TransAlta’s planned conversions
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Factors Driving Early CTG Conversion
Early conversion provides TransAlta with superior asset flexibility, reduced risk, and enhanced capital efficiency
Early Conversion Benefits
Expected Timing 2021-2023 Expected Near-Term Carbon Costs ~70% savings upon conversion Operating Expenses and Sustaining Capital Significant savings upon conversion driven by lower fixed operating expenses and sustaining capital expenditures (including avoidance of Clean Air Strategic Alliance (CASA) compliance capital expenditures) Operating Flexibility Faster CTG ramp-up, ability to turn unneeded plants “off” and avoid unnecessary
- perating expenses will drive improved capacity market competitiveness
Reliability Improvements Improved reliability critical in a capacity market with performance obligations CTG expected to operate more reliably than coal units Gas Pricing Benefit from currently low natural gas pricing environment Policy Implications Political and social influence trending to less carbon, CTG better positioned for potential increases in carbon pricing
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CTG and Market Redesign Support Coal Cash Flows
CTG expected to replace and potentially improve existing PPA cash flow
2014 High Flat $178 mm $210 mm $224 mm
CASH FLOW FROM GENERATION
(CANADIAN COAL VS. CTG) 2015 2016 CTG
CTG conversions expected to replace and potentially improve cash flow from existing Canadian Coal
Alberta PPAs currently earning capacity- equivalent price of approximately $10-12/KW- month and negative implied energy margins(1)
CTG conversion expected to result in significantly lower operating costs and sustaining capital going-forward
Approximately $8-10/KW-month required to maintain cash flow under a capacity market construct assuming no margin earned in energy markets(1)
1Illustrative calculation of required capacity prices for CTG = Capacity revenue required (Cash flow target, fixed OM&A, sustaining capital and return of and on conversion capital) / 12 months / committed capacity
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Hydro EBITDA Expected to Increase Post-PPA
Under new Alberta market construct hydro will have ability to earn both energy
and capacity revenue
Storage hydro will be able to bid higher assumed capacity than run-of-river Potential to unlock significantly higher EBITDA under reasonable power price
environments
+$30/MWh energy prices could result in material EBITDA uplift from those
recently achieved under Alberta PPA Potential for significant increase to cash flows in new market construct once current Alberta Hydro PPA expires
$162 mm
EBITDA 5-Yr illustrative average without the PPA
$77 mm
EBITDA 5-Yr average with PPA
$49/MWh 5-year Average AB Power Price
PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2017-05-23 8:13 AM
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Strongly Positioned For The Future
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Positioned to Seize Opportunities in Targeted Markets
1Estimated project expenditures are AUD$570 million. Total estimated project expenditures are stated in CAD$ and include estimated capital interest costs. The total estimated project expenditures may change due to fluctuations in
foreign exchange rates. Approximately $155 million in project expenditures relate to infrastructure acquisition and network, water and gas access deposits, and prepayments, most of which is due to be paid on commissioning
Potential for $3B to $4B of contracted growth opportunities over the next 5-10 years
Opportunity Capital Expenditures Expected COD Capacity
South Hedland $210 - 230 mm(1)
(Cost to Complete)
Mid-2017 150MW
Longer-Term Medium-Term Short-Term
$1.8 - $2.5B 2025 600 – 900MW Brazeau Pump Storage CTG Conversions $50 mm/unit TBD 662MW $10B
- f potential
2020 - 2030 4,600MW
- f potential
Other Alberta Renewables Mid-2018 $160 mm 80MW Goonumbla Solar Farm Alberta Wind Projects December 2019 $300 mm 150MW Saskatchewan Wind $400 mm December 2019 200MW CTG Conversions 2021 - 2023 $50 mm/unit 2,371MW
Contracted projects can be funded with 60-80% leverage
$0.8 to $1.0 billion of equity investment
Represents investment extending to 2025 (2017-2019 equity requirements not material given project level debt)
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Australian Opportunities
1Total estimated project spend is AUD$570 million. Total estimated project spend is stated in CAD$ and includes estimated capital interest costs and may change due to fluctuation in foreign exchange rates
TransAlta continues to build on already its significant Australian presence
Perth South Hedland Sydney
AUSTRALIA
Goonumbla Gas Solar
Goonumbla Solar Farm Location 350km North-West of Sydney in New South Wales Capacity 80MW Proposed In-Service Date mid-2018 Capital Costs $160 mm Other Details
Site is permitted under the New South Wales Major Project Planning Development process
Engaged Tier 1 EPC contractor to undertake construction and operation and maintenance
Currently securing offtake agreements South Hedland Location South Hedland, Western Australia Capacity 150MW Expected In-Service Date mid-2017 Capital Costs $585 mm(1) Other Details
Expected to generate $80 mm of EBITDA on an annualized basis
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Garden Plains and Cowley Ridge Repower to be submitted in up-coming Alberta procurement; Antelope Coulee submitted to Saskatchewan’s
Canadian Wind Projects
Edmonton Calgary Saskatoon Regina Hanna Pincher Creek Swift Current
Garden Plains Wind
Location 30 km north of Hanna, Alberta Capacity 130MW Proposed In-Service Date December 2019 Capital Costs $260 mm Other Details Wind resource data dating back to 2009 Partnerships with landowners since 2011
Antelope Coulee Wind
Location 35 km southwest of Swift Current, Saskatchewan Capacity Up to 200MW Proposed In-Service Date December 2019 Capital Costs $400 mm Other Details Wind resource data dating back to 2008
Cowley Ridge Wind Repower
Location Northwest of Pincher Creek, Alberta Capacity 20MW Proposed In-Service Date December 2019 Capital Costs $40 mm Other Details Site of original Cowley Ridge Wind Farm which was built in 1993 and dismantled in 2016 Long-term understanding of wind resource
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Brazeau Investment Supports System Reliability
600 – 900MW
pumped storage project
$1.8 – 2.5B
investment
Brownfield Advantage
existing infrastructure (upper reservoir, transmission, reduced cost of project)
2020 / 2021
start of construction upon receipt of a long-term AESO contract Fast-ramping nature
Supports System Reliability
as wind build-out occurs
955 – 1,255MW
new capacity of Brazeau post-completion
Expected to reach COD in 2025 - large storage best positioned to support build of 5,000MW of intermittent renewables
1 New Turbines 2 New Dam 1 2
1Subject to securing a long-term contract with the AESO
Developing Brazeau pump storage solution to support
adoption of renewables in Alberta
Currently engaging in discussions with the Government of
Alberta in pursuit of a long-term contract
Environmental studies currently underway Expected commercial operation date in 2025(1)
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Enhancing Growth Through Sponsored Vehicle
Return uplift by developing assets in TA then crystalizing value through RNW
1Net generating capacity 2Including Class B shares
COMMENTARY ADVANTAGE FOR TRANSALTA
Attractive portfolio of highly contracted renewables and gas-fired assets (2,440MW capacity)(1)
Current dividend yield of 5.6% with expected near-term growth of 6-7%
Majority shareholder (64% own.)(2) in $3.9B market cap(3) entity
Provides stable and predictable dividends to TransAlta
Low leverage (21% net debt / EV)(4) after strong potential for growth
Significant acquisition capacity (both third- party acquisitions and drop-downs)
Market premium multiple for assets with strong, stable cash flows
11.4x EV/EBITDA (2017)
Access to competitive cost of capital
6.5% AFFO Yield (2017)
Ability to compete for third party acquisitions and new opportunities
Ability to align risk/return profile with appropriate entity
Provides natural home for new renewables investments
Strong Balance Sheet Premium for Strong, Stable Cash Flows Significant Source of Value
3Based on April 28, 2017 closing share price ($15.59) and including Class B shares 4Net debt based on $4.9B EV and $3.9B market cap. EV does not include capital required to complete South Hedland Project
PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2017-05-23 8:13 AM
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Outlook and Priorities
31 31
Tangible Factors Driving Cash Flow Growth
Targeting in excess of $400 million of Free Cash Flow for 2018 - 2020
$250 mm(1) $300 mm $365 mm $400 mm
2016 2017 Outlook
South Hedland (Partial Year) MSA Settlement Off-Coal Payment Lower Margin on Alberta Coal South Hedland (Full Year) Project Greenlight Interest Expense Higher Margin on Alberta Renewables Mississauga and Poplar Creek Sundance Units 1 & 2 Hydro Upside Brazeau Wind RFP in Alberta and Saskatchewan Other LT Growth
$440 mm
1Includes MSA settlement payment, productivity capital, and Lakeswind tax equity
32 32
$400 $520 $700 $167 $400 $400 $296
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-2040 USD CAD
1 2
Proactively Addressing Up-coming Debt Maturities
1Debt related to RNW 2Includes USD$20 million of debt related to RNW
Maturities to be settled with existing liquidity Maturities to be settled with non-recourse debt / FCF / potential off-coal monetization
3.0x 4.6x 4.3x 4.1x 3.8x 3.6x 3.5x 20% 25% 16% 17% 18% 17% 18%
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Target Adjusted Net Debt to Comparable EBITDA Adjusted FFO to Adjusted Net Debt REDUCING LEVERAGE ACTIVELY MANAGING MATURITIES
33 33
2016 2017
Work Collaboratively with Government
MOU to work collaboratively to advance the objectives
- f the Alberta Climate Leadership Plan:
CTG conversions
Support for renewables
Opportunity under a capacity market
Work with Alberta Government to secure a long-term contract for Brazeau
Contribute to the design of a new capacity market
Establish terms and conditions for CTG conversion
Operational Excellence
Reduced OM&A costs by $20 million y-o-y through improved mine planning and methodologies, reduced equipment requirements and optimized contractor usage
Continue to lead on delivering strong operational, safety and financial performance
Accelerate “Project GreenLight”
Increase Financial Flexibility
Entered into off-coal agreement with Government of Alberta for $524 million over 14 years
Raised $360 million of project debt and increased liquidity to $1.7 billion as at December 31, 2016
Met 2016 guidance for comparable EBITDA(1), FFO and FCF; at the high end of FCF outlook range
Reposition capital structure through $700 to $900 million of project-level debt over next 12 to 15 months
Repayment of 2017 maturities with existing liquidity
Comparable FCF of $300 to $365 million in 2017 and target Comparable FCF of $400 to $440 mm by 2018 - 2020
Execute strategy to continue strengthening balance sheet for next phase of growth plans
Strategic Growth
Prepare for 2017 Alberta renewables procurement
Analyze CTG conversion potential
Announced Brazeau project development
Continued to grow RNW through drop-downs and South Hedland completion
Commission South Hedland (mid-2017)
Grow renewables through procurements in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Australia
Take steps to secure CTG conversion gas supply
Continue to advance Brazeau development
Executing Our Strategic Objectives
1Excluding adjustment to provisions relating mostly to prior years