~ Towards contributing to Policy Making for Disaster Prevention~ - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

~ Towards contributing to Policy Making for Disaster Prevention~

Aina Ota, Toshio Koike with Koike Lab. members and Yokomatsu

Disaster Prevention Investment

How much effect does the disaster prevention bring????

Policy Makers

Does increasing Social Equality regress Economic Growth????

• 1d. Build resilience and reduce

deaths from natural disaster by x%

Disaster Prevention Investment:

• nly 3.6%
• f foreign aid

• 4. Develop economic

models to reproduce actual economic parameters.

Economic simulation

• 1. Develop of flood

models to reproduce actual flood damage.

• 2. Demonstrate counter

measure effects for reducing damage.

Flood simulation

• 3. Translate

flood model

• utputs into

economic model inputs

• 5. Simulate effect of the

counter measures on economy and society with several senarios.

Disaster Prevention Investment

• 4. Develop economic

models to reproduce actual economic parameters.

Economic simulation

• 1. Develop of flood

models to reproduce actual flood damage.

• 2. Demonstrate counter

measure effects for reducing damage.

Flood simulation

• 3. Translate

flood model

• utputs into

economic model inputs

• 5. Simulate effect of the

counter measures on economy and society with several senarios.

Disaster Prevention Investment

5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000

1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

CaMa-flood vs. EM-DAT total affected population

emdat no

Assuming that the place flooded deeper than 5.0m is affected, CaMa-flood has some reproducibility compared to EM-DAT

• 4. Develop economic

models to reproduce actual economic parameters.

Economic simulation

• 1. Develop of flood

models to reproduce actual flood damage.

• 2. Demonstrate counter

measure effects for reducing damage.

Flood simulation

• 3. Translate

flood model

• utputs into

economic model inputs

• 5. Simulate effect of the

counter measures on economy and society with several senarios.

Disaster Prevention Investment

• 2. Establish the levee as disaster prevention and calculate

the effect on damage reduction

• D. Y

amazasi, 2012, Physically-based Modelling of Large-scale Floodingin Continental-scale Rivers of the World

Establishing LEVEE as Disaster Prevention in CaMa-flood and measure the effect of the levees

• n the damage reduction

middle lower

Building levee in mainstream of LOWER(LW) and MIDDLE(MD) basin

• 4. Develop economic

models to reproduce actual economic parameters.

Economic simulation

• 1. Develop of flood

models to reproduce actual flood damage.

• 2. Demonstrate counter

measure effects for reducing damage.

Flood simulation

• 3. Translate

flood model

• utputs into

economic model inputs

• 5. Simulate effect of the

counter measures on economy and society with several senarios.

Disaster Prevention Investment

What percentage of Physical Asset were damaged for each 5 income brackets??

Income Bracket

Family Size

1st ,poorest

8.78

2nd , poor

7.97

3rd , middle

7.32

4th , rich

6.45

5th , richest

5.36

Family size distribution Income bracket map

Income Bracket Physical asset 1st ,poorest

84$

2nd , poor

151$

3rd , middle

181$

4th , rich

197$

5th , richest

313$

Physical assets amount for 5 brackets Percentage of inundated area CaMa-flood result!!!!! Physical Assets distribution Family size data

• 4. Develop economic

models to reproduce actual economic parameters.

Economic simulation

• 1. Develop of flood

models to reproduce actual flood damage.

• 2. Demonstrate counter

measure effects for reducing damage.

Flood simulation

• 3. Translate

flood model

• utputs into

economic model inputs

• 5. Simulate effect of the

counter measures on economy and society with several senarios.

Disaster Prevention Investment

• 150
• 125
• 100
• 75
• 50
• 25

25 50 75

2004 2012 2020 2028 2036 2044 2052 2060 2068 2076 2084 2092 2100

Gini coefficient reduction (%) LW and MD levee against NO levee

(NO-LW)/NO (NO-MD)/NO

0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

2004 2012 2020 2028 2036 2044 2052 2060 2068 2076 2084 2092 2100

GDP comparison Low levee/No levee Middle levee/No levee

LW/NO MD/NO

LW: less GDP growth MD: more GDP growth MD: increase equality LW: decrease equality

LW levee saved

• nly richest people

MD levee saved people at the highest risk As a Result!!

0.5 1 1.5 2

2004 2011 2018 2025 2032 2039 2046 2053 2060 2067 2074 2081 2088 2095 2102

Consumption per Capita comparison Middle levee/No levee

poorest poor middle rich richest

MD: increase equality

0.8 1.3 1.8

2004 2010 2016 2022 2028 2034 2040 2046 2052 2058 2064 2070 2076 2082 2088 2094 2100

Consumption per Capita comparison Low levee/No levee

poorest poor middle rich richest

LW: decrease equality

Disaster prevention enable both Economic Growth and Social Equality

Disaster Prevention Investment

 Build levee with considering location  Take account for distribution of income brackets

• RESULT: In middle

levee case,

~ Summary

 Integrate flood model & economic model

Policy Makers

GDP was 1.4 time against no prevention Gini coefficient descended 50%

• 1d. Build resilience

and reduce deaths from natural disaster by x%