Towards an Integrated Air Quality Climate Modelling System Bram - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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towards an integrated air quality climate modelling system
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Towards an Integrated Air Quality Climate Modelling System Bram - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Towards an Integrated Air Quality Climate Modelling System Bram Bregman TNO, The Netherlands Do we need climate change in AQ modelling? Although global climate change is the main driver, changes on regional scales cannot be covered by

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Towards an Integrated Air Quality – Climate Modelling System

Bram Bregman TNO, The Netherlands

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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

Do we need climate change in AQ modelling?

  • Although global climate change is the main driver,

changes on regional scales cannot be covered by GCMs

  • In many regions regional climate change differs

significantly from meteorological variability

  • climate change cannot be simulated by looking at

meteorlogical variables seperately

  • to judge if climate change is relevant for AQ policy, the

least step needed is off-line coupling with RCMs

  • Use of RCM ensembles is necessary
  • Regional emission inventories are important
  • Ideally one uses interactive coupling: expensive!
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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

How to achieve regional AQ scenario’s?

RCM Ensembles 1960 - 1990 RCM future scenario’s IPCC Scenario’s GCMs 1960 – 1990 2030 – 2070

Meteorological Variables

  • AQ

Regional AQ Future scenario’s Regional AQ

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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

Regional climate scenario’s Regional climate scenario’s

(Lenderink et al., J. of Clim., 2007)

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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

Regional climate ensembles and AQ modeling

AQ Regional AQ Global AQ-Climate Off-line

resolution

100x100 km 6x6 km KNMI’06 Climate scenario’s AQ-Climate On-line

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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

Coupling to urban scales

  • Apply wind tunnel experiments and CFD modelling to

develop/improve fast hourly street canyon models

  • Integration of those models in URBIS on urban scale:

street canyons, point sources, inland shipping, …

  • Combine URBIS with regional AQ models, but also to

integrated assessment models for noice, odour, and risk analysis

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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

NOx emission inventories down to ~ 6 x 6 km

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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

Black Carbon in LOTOS-EUROS

25 x 25 km 12 x 12 km 6 x 6 km

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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

LOTOS-EUROS coupled to NWP and RCM meteorology

Finokalia 2002 ECMWF FUB RACMO

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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

AQ modelling coupled with NWP and RCM meteorology

High-Resolution AQ model Lotos-Euros Meteo data: ECMWF – FUB – RACMO Regional Climate Model Number of days ozone exceeding 120 µg/m3

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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

Challenges

  • nesting with local scale turbulent/plume modelling:

‘real’ AQ issues occur at street level

  • how to create a useful interface with integrated

assessments

  • Interactively coupled RCM – AQ model ensembles
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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

Coupling AQ modelling - regional climate ensembles

RCM ensembles 1960 – 1990 time slices Urban modelling Regional AQ model RCM ensembles 2030 – 2070 time slices

downscaling

Future AQ Scenario’s Future emission inventories

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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

Air Quality and Climate Change in relation to policy issues

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8 maart 2005 PMC Infrastructuur

Air quality – climate change modelling structure