Tools for Quantifying Health Impacts from Global Air Pollution - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Tools for Quantifying Health Impacts from Global Air Pollution Scenarios

Amy Lamson U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Presented at TF HTAP workshop: Assessing the Impacts of Future Global Air Pollution Scenarios Potsdam, Germany February 18, 2016

Overview of Presentation

• BenMAP-CE

▫ Core program ▫ Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Rollback Module ▫ Using data from GBD study in core program ▫ What’s next?

• LEAP – Integrated Benefits Calculator (IBC)

▫ LEAP toolkit ▫ What’s next?

• Additional global health impact assessment tools

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S ummary of Applications

• TIER 1 – No External Data Required

▫ LEAP-IBC ▫ BenMAP-CE’s GBD Rollback Module ▫ BenMAP-CE with GBD data

• TIER 2 – Existing Emissions Data

▫ Modify LEAP-IBC with their own data

• TIER 3 – Air Quality Modeling or Monitoring Data

▫ Full health and economic benefit analytic capability in BenMAP-CE

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• The “environmental Benefits

Mapping and Analysis Program--Community Edition”

• The principal tool EPA uses to

quantify the benefits of reducing criteria air pollutants

• An open-source PC-based and

graphic user interface-driven software program

• Uses health impact functions to

estimate the incidence and economic value of adverse health outcomes

• Training available

4 Download program at http:/ / www2.epa.gov/ benmap Questions: benmap@epa.gov

A Growing Number of BenMAP-CE Users and Developers in the U.S . and Globally

20 Nations & 15 U.S. States

2 Chinese Universities, 3 Consulting Firm s and 1 Non-Governm ental Organization

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Health impact

(∆ Y)

Avoided Deaths per Y ear

Pollutant change (∆PM) Population (Pop) Baseline incidence (Yo) Effect estimate (ß)

BenMAP-CE Approach

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∆Y = Yo (1-e – ß ∆PM) * Pop

Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Rollback Module

• Allows users to select a country, region, or group of

countries and see the impact of lowering PM2.5 emissions using data from the 2010 GBD study.

• Quantifies the number of avoided deaths in the country
• r region selected, as well as the PM2.5 concentrations in

the analysis.

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From : Exposure Assessm ent for Estim ation of the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Outdoor Air Pollution Michael Brauer, Markus Amann, Rick T. Burnett, Aaron Cohen, Frank Dentener, Majid Ezzati, Sarah B. Henderson, Michal Krzyzanowski, Randall V. Martin, Rita Van Dingenen, Aaron van Donkelaar, and George D. Thurston. Environm ental Science & Technology 20 12 46 (2), 652-660

Data from 2010 GBD Proj ect in BenMAP-CE

• Globally modeled PM2.5 and ozone

concentrations for 2005 (~10km by 10km resolution) ▫ Applied remote sensing, photochemical modeling and monitoring data from Brauer et al. (2012)

• Integrated exposure-response function

for IHD, stroke, COPD, and lung cancer ▫ BenMAP-CE has parametrized versions derived from Burnett et al. (2014)

• Global population for 2005 (10km by

10km resolution) from CESIN

• Country-specific mortality rates from

WHO 8

What’s Next for BenMAP-CE?

• Report-ready graphics
• Built-in life table model
• Share BenMAP-CE datasets in the cloud
• Multi-pollutant/ multi-stressor
• City-specific effect estimates
• Incorporating detailed ZIP-level health data in the U.S.
• Chronic cost of illness estimates
• Online user forum
• 2016 trainings (US: DC, Miami, Atlanta; BAQ conference in Korea,

ISEE conference in Rome) Key U.S. EPA contact = Neal Fann

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LEAP - Integrated Benefits Calculator (IBC)

• Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) developed

by Stockholm Environment Institute over last 25 years, and supported by collaboration with US government

• Emissions and scenarios module

▫ Already widely used in developing countries ▫ Countries with limited existing data can develop historical emission inventories, baseline and mitigation scenarios or can also modify the tool with their own data, where available

• Simplified benefits estimation module

▫ Estimates concentrations of particle pollution and ozone using a global air quality model (GEOS-Chem Adjoint) ▫ Includes calculations to determine impacts on health, crops, and climate ▫ Requires limited user inputs - default data available for all parameters http:/ / sei-us.org/ software/ leap 10

from LEAP-SLCP

LEAP-IBC Approach

• Uses concentration-response functions for PM- and ozone-related mortality

impacts and for ozone-related crop impacts

• Default data on emissions for 10 conventional pollutants and greenhouse

gases, population data and projections, crop yield, and concentration- response functions

• Beta version of LEAP-IBC tool deployed for original four countries –

Bangladesh, Colombia, Ghana, and Mexico – and analysis for the Latin America-Caribbean Regional Assessment 11

∆ response ∆ emissions

Change (∆) in emissions Linear response coefficients Country-scale air quality response

from GEOS-Chem Adjoint

x =

What’s Next for LEAP-IBC?

• Finish modeling for remaining countries
• Application of LEAP-IBC to 4-6 additional countries
• Develop and integrate indoor air module for LEAP-

IBC Key U.S. EPA contact = Am anda Curry Brown

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Additional Global Health Impact Assessment Tools

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Air Counts AIRQ2.2 BenMAP- CE EBD GMAPS IOMLIFET LEAP- IBC SIM-Air TM5- FASST Spatial resolution Regional X X X X X X National X X X X X X X City-level X X X X X X X Any grid X X X X Pollutants PM2.5 X X X X X X X X PM10 X X X X X Ozone X X X X X NO2 X X X SO2 X X X CO X Health outcom e Mortality X X X X X X X X X DALY / YLL X X X X X X Morbidity X X X X X

Modified from: Anenberg, S. C., Belova, A., Brandt, J., et al. (2015). Survey of Ambient Air Pollution Health Risk Assessment Tools. Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/ risa.12540.

Additional Global Health Impact Assessment Tools (Cont.)

Air Counts AIRQ2.2 BenMAP

• CE

EBD GMAPS IOMLIFET LEAP

• IBC

SIM- Air TM5- FASST PM2.5 Concentration-Response Relationship User-defined X X X X ACS X X X X X X X X GBD IER X X X Other X X Population Data Source User-defined X X X X United Nations X X CIESIN X X X X X Other X Baseline Incidence Data Source User-defined X X X WHO X X X X X Other X X

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Modified from: Anenberg, S. C., Belova, A., Brandt, J., et al. (2015). Survey of Ambient Air Pollution Health Risk Assessment Tools. Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/ risa.12540.

Contact Information

Amy Lamson U.S. EPA – Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Risk and Benefits Group Lamson.amy@epa.gov

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