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Tim imber Supply Im Impacts Resulting fr from Cli limate Change? - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 25, 2023 19 likes •424 views

Can Sil ilviculture Solu lutions Mit itigate the Tim imber Supply Im Impacts Resulting fr from Cli limate Change? Jean-Martin Jea in Lu Lussie ier Res esearch Sci cientis ist Canadia ian Wood Fibr ibre Centre Ja January ry

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2017 2017-18 CIF IF e-Le Lecture Se Serie ies “Innovative Solutions to Respond to the Challenge of a Changing Climate”

Jea Jean-Martin in Lu Lussie ier Res esearch Sci cientis ist Canadia ian Wood Fibr ibre Centre Ja January ry 31, 2018

Can Sil ilviculture Solu lutions Mit itigate the Tim imber Supply Im Impacts Resulting fr from Cli limate Change?

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Talk-show Participants and Contributors

Jean ean-Martin Lus Lussie sier St Study Lea Lead and and Res esearch Sci Scientist CWFC/LFC Jean ean-Claud ude Ru Ruel el La Laval al Uni niversi sity, , Qu Quebec Ver erena Grie iess ss Uni niversity of

  • f

British Col

  • lumbia

Der Derek Sidd Sidders Program Mana anager, Tec echnology De Development, TDT Lea Lead CWFC, NoF

  • FC

Guy uy Laro Larocque Res esearch Sci Scientist CFS, S, LF LFC Cha hao

  • Li

Li Res esearch Sci Scientist CFS, S, NoF

  • FC

Cos

  • smin Fil

Filip ipesc scu Res esearch Sci Scientist – CFS, S, PFC Tim im Kedd eddy Woo

  • od Fib

Fibre De Development Spe Specialist CWFC, NoF

  • FC
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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Large scale disturbances Impact on forest age class distribution Short- and mid-term reductions of sustainable timber supply

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/

MPB

  • 1. Climate change will likely change the disturbance

regime in many regions of Canada (Fire, Pests, Windthrow)

  • 2. We don’t know when and where disturbance will
  • ccur, but we need to be ready to mitigate their

impact on timber supply

So How Do We Bring Research to Li Life?

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

How can silviculture mit itigate ti timber supply lim limitations in in an even-aged management re regime?

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

1

Accelerate growth to reduce technical rotation age

2

Redistribute harvest over time in premature stands

3

Allow partial harvest within constrained areas

4

Manage the production of mixed stands

4 Partial Cutting Str trategies to in increase ti timber supply on th the short term

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

In Innovative partial cutting strategies Our key re research question

Adaptive Silviculture Strategy PLAN

EXECUTE ASSESS How to perform efficient partial cuttings? What are the cost and productivity of methods? What are the impacts

  • n wood production &

regeneration What are the (risks wind, fire and pest) and how can we reduce them? What are the most effective strategies? Treatments? Stand type? Timing?

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Coll llaborative Research Proje ject 3.2 .2 “Silviculture Solutions to Mitigate Risks

  • f

f Decreased Short-Term Tim imber Supply”

Jean-Martin Lussier & Cosmin Filipescu

CIF E-Lecture , January 31 2018

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Base Case Management Scenario Resulting Optimal Wood Flow

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 m3/tree Volume (m3) Millions PERIOD (yrs) Standing Thinning Clearcut Total Harvest

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CASE STUDY Tre ree Farm Li Licence 52, BC Base Case Management Scenario

Objectives 1. Maximize NPV from harvest 2. Non declining harvest flow

MTB salvage harvest on the first 10 yrs Constant harvest from Yr 20 to 70 and from Yr 80 to 250.

3. Keep at least 25% of the landbase with mature and

  • ld-Growth stands (>120 yrs)

4. No VQO areas or Deer wintering habitat

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Partial Cutting Str trategy Resulting Optimal Wood Flow

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 m3/tree Volume (m3) Millions PERIOD (yrs) Standing Thinning Clearcut Clearcut

+27% Supply

(129 000 m3/yr)

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Partial Cutting Str trategy Optimized Partial Cutting Schedule

PERIOD

Stand Type Age Class Yr 0 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr 40 Yr 50 Yr 60 Yr 70 Yr 80 Yr 90 Yr 100 NATURAL 0-30 40-70 80-110 433 232 120-150 81 160-190 590 289 593 200+ 923 1090 589 574 CURRENT MANAGED 0-30 40-70 2793 234 80-110 120-150 160-190 200+ FUTURE MANAGED 0-30 40-70 2884 829 848 80-110 120-150 160-190 200+

TOTAL 923 1681 878 1600 313 2793 3118 829 848

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Mit itigating mid idterm tim imber supply shortage Are thinnings a solu lution?

  • Dr. Verena C. Griess, Asst. Prof Forest Resources

Management And Team

  • J. Spies (UBC) and C.Man

Jillian Spies

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Case stu tudy area: Bulkley TSA

  • Bulkley TSA = Typical TSA to be

experiencing midterm timber supply shortage.

  • Midterm timber supply shortage

caused by the recent MPB epidemic.

  • Research team at UBC developed

strategic timber supply models looking 250 years into the future.

  • In these models, commercial

thinnings (CT) were applied, focusing on cases in which they might be economically viable.

Location of Bulkley TSA in BC and it’s BEC Zones

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Methodology

  • Using FPS-ATLAS a basecase scenario, reflecting current

harvest practices in Bulkley TSA was developed.

Current age class distribution in the Bulkley TSA

  • 6 alternative scenarios were

developed:

  • Harvest methods: 2-pass

CT system and clearcutting

  • Minimum harvest age

(MHA): CMAI or 150m3/ha

  • CT: 20 years before CMAI

and 20 years after CMAI

  • Outcomes from these scenarios

were compared to the basecase

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Age class distribution In In The 6 Alt lternative scenarios

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Yie ield Assessment & Modeling

Maximizin ing th the Cumulative Effect fr from Si Silv lvic iculture Treatments

Silviculture: combination of science and art

  • How trees respond to different treatments?
  • Decisions: which one, where, how, and when?
  • Modeling: an approach of knowledge & info

integration/synthesis to support decision-making

  • Yield assessment: essential info for modeling

Examples:

  • Pre-commercial and commercial thinning
  • Dr. Chao Li

Derek Sidders

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Yie ield Assessment & Modeling

Maxi ximiz izin ing th the Cu Cumula lativ ive Effect fr from Silv Silvic icult lture Treatments

Approach:

  • Identify relevant Long-Term Research Studies that have

deployed controlled pre-commercial and commercial thinning treatments and have established PSPs

  • Recover data for pre-treatment and post-treatment

response and complete re-measurements where required to adequately capture production and quality response variables

  • Analyze the data using models created to assess fibre

volume and value (growth and yield models, Wood Fibre Value Simulation Model)

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Yie ield Assessment & Modeling

Maximizing the Cumulative Effect from Silviculture Treatments: Case Studies

Shawnigan Lake, Vancouver Island, B.C. Nitrogen Fertilization & Thinning Effects on a 24-year-old Douglas-Fir plantation Established 1970

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Yie ield Assessment & Modeling

Maximizing the Cumulative Effect from Silviculture Treatments: Case Studies

Calling Lake Commercial Thinning Options to Maximize Volume Recovery, Growth and Sustainability in A 76-year-old (DBH) Fire Origin White Spruce Stands: Established 2002

15-Year Re-measurements completed in 2017

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Why care about windthrow?

  • Interest for a greater use of

partial cuts

  • Use of partial cuts limited

by the fear of windthrow

  • Need for a better

understanding of factors associated with increases in windthrow

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A stu tudy of f partial cuts in in western Quebec

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Stand ty type: a major factor

Topex

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

  • Sim

imulate th the effects of

  • f par

artia ial l cu cut tr treatments;

  • Enhance th

the cap apacit ity of

  • f ZE

ZELIG-CFS to

  • predict th

the effects of

  • f

clim climate ch change;

  • In

Integrate wood qual alit ity attributes.

  • ZE

ZELIG-CFS is is gap ap model l base ased on

  • n mechanistic representations of
  • f

processes th that govern tr tree an and stand growth: (1 (1) lig light in interception, (2) (2) envir ironmental l con

  • nstraints on
  • n growth, (3)

(3) competition, (4) (4) tr tree mortali lity an and (5) (5) regeneration establis lishment

  • Lin

Linkages with ith CRP RP 3.2 3.2: development of

  • f ap

appli lications th that

Pro roject Overv rview

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Results – Balsam Fir

Note: Error bars are standard deviations

  • 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Basal area (m2 ha-1) Year Average observed and predicted basal area

Observations Predictions

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AMSIMOD uti tilities to display sim imulation re results

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Technology Development and Transfer (T (TDT) ) Role

  • Work

rk with ithin in eac each pro project to:

  • Iden

Identify pot potential op

  • pti

tions for

  • r pra

practitioner up uptake

  • De

Develop technology to

  • adva

advance foc

  • cused re

research

  • De

Develop too

  • ols

ls to

  • prom

promote and and enh nhance ind ndustry ry adop adoption

  • Crea

reate, fac acilit litate, an and d deli deliver r tec echnology tr transfer pro products s movin ing rele relevant res research in information to prac practitioners rs

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5 Pro ronged Approach to Bring Research to Li Life!

1) 1) Develo lopment of f tec echniq iques to apply ly res esearch kn knowle ledge 2) 2) Develo lopment of f guid ides to practic ices th that inc incorporate res esearch progress 3) 3) Demonstratio ion of f appli licatio ions/practic ices th that can

  • peratio

ionali lize res esearch and vali lidate forecasts

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Examples of f Partial Harv rvesting Demonstrations

Established between 1994 and 2015 by TDT

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300 metres 3 m e t r e s

EMEND Harvest Pattern Candidate Stand ~ 10 Hectares 2 Retained Patches .20 (40X60m) and .46 ha(60X90) - elliptical 10, 20, and 50 % retention - evenly distributed 20 m interval between machine corridors (centre to centre) 5 metre wide corridors

  • 25% removal within machine corridors
  • retention strips removal = 1 of 3 (50%), 3 of 4 (20%),

and 7 of 8 (10%)

Machine Corridor Retention Strip No Cut Patch Prevailing wind 80 m Landing Haul Road All skidding from the landing backing down the machine corridors. Harvester Pattern

Sidders, D.M., 1999. EMEND Field Guide Sidders, D.M. and Steve Luchkow, 1998. EMEND Final Harvest Pattern and Extraction Method

TREEPlots 2m X 40m

Figure 3. 9

Post-Harvest 75% Retention Wind Direction

Pre-Harvest

EMEND Harvest Modified Uniform Shelterwood 75%, 50 %, 20%Retention Profiles

20 metres centre to centre

50% Retention 20% Retention

Sidders, D.M., 1999. EMEND Field Guide Sidders, D.M. and Steve Luchkow, 1998. EMEND Final Harvest Pattern and Extraction Method

Established 1998/99

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Thinning equally from Above and Below (by Volume) Resulted in Greater Stem Size Consistency and Stand Health.

Established 2002

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5 metre machine corridor 15 metre retention and selection strip Mountain Pine Beetle Risk Reduction and Rehabilitation Project, Grande Prairie, Alberta Established 2014 & 2015

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Even Distribution of Retained Overstory Hardwood Stems Creates a Healthier and More Productive Stand

Established 2006

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

5 Pro ronged Approach to Bring Research to Li Life!

4) 4) Del eliv iver fiel field tours and oth ther act ctiv ivit itie ies to brin ing th the new knowle ledge in into a practic ical l context xt 5) 5) Su Support all ll of f th the above with ith publi licatio ions, , presentatio ions and digi igital l media ia products

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“Sil ilviculture Solu lutions to Mit itigate Ris isks of f Decreased Short-term Timber Supply”

Workshop and Thin ink Tank

UBC Malc alcolm Knapp Research For

  • rest, Lo

Loon La Lake, BC De December 4th

th-6th th, 20

2017 17

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Benefits and Challenges

Benefits

  • Increase in allowable cut

between 10 and 30%

  • Short-term results

(<10-20 years)

  • Short term implementation &

assessement

  • Capacity to adapt to the

impact of large disturbances

Challenges

  • Learning Curve
  • Equipment fleet
  • Costs
  • Tenure
  • Market for small

trees/less desirable species

“Si Silv lviculture re Sol Solutions to Mitig itigate Ri Risks of

  • f

De Decre reased Sh Short rt-term Timber Supply”

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Moving Forw rward!

WE WELCOME PARNERS to ESTABLISH RELEVANT DEMOS IN CANADIAN FORESTS

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Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture

Thanks to our Collaborators:

Verena Griess Jean-Claude Ruel Philippe Meek Ken Byrnes

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2017 2017-18 CIF IF e-Le Lecture Se Serie ies “Innovative Solutions to Respond to the Challenge of a Changing Climate”

Can Sil ilviculture Solu lutions Mit itigate the Tim imber Supply Im Impacts Resulting fr from Cli limate Change? Questions!

WE WELCOME PARNERS to ESTABLISH RELEVANT “Partial Harvest” DEMOS IN CANADIAN FORESTS WE WELCOME PARNERS to ESTABLISH RELEVANT “Partial Harvest” DEMOS IN CANADIAN FORESTS