Third Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund Project Tanvir - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Ev Evaluating aluating Im Impact: act: Tu Turning ning Promises omises in into to Ev Evid idence ence Third Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund Project Tanvir Hussain/PPAF, Champak Prasad Pokharel/NES, Syed Hassan Akbar/PPAF Christel
Kevin Crockford, Imtiaz Alvi/World Bank
Kathmandu, Nepal February 2010
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Nine years of Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund
(PPAF) operations (total US$900 mill). Third 5- year project started in 2009
Strategy and approaches continue to evolve over
Strong demand from Government of Pakistan,
PPAF management and WB to show results not just project outputs
Increasing number of donors and sources of
financing
Objective: To empower the poor with increased
incomes, improved productive capacity and access to services to achieve sustainable livelihoods
Components: Social Mobilization and Institutional Building Livelihood Enhancement and Protection Micro-credit Access Basic Services and Infrastructure Outreach: 126 districts, 51,000+ villages Partners: 82 partner organizations
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Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Longterm Outcomes
funds
assistance
PPAF Staff
partners Identification and appraisal
Evaluation of proposals from partners and financing Technical capacity building of partners Monitoring and evaluation Poor empowered with increased incomes, improved productive capacity and access to services to achieve sustainable livelihoods Community institutions empowered Following livelihood assets for the poor increased:
community
development at community and individual levels
transfers to poor
infrastructure built
centers and schools
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Has the project been able to affect household income,
consumption and production?
Has the project succeeded in enhancing the following
assets of its target beneficiaries: Financial, Physical, Human, Social, Natural
Has the project been able to increase access to basic
services and infrastructure?
Has the project been able to improve community level
institutions in terms of their social capital, empowerment, and governance?
Has the project been able to reduce vulnerability and
improve food security and resilience to external shocks?
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Household income, consumption, food consumption
and household assets
Agricultural production and non-farm enterprises
(gender disaggregated)
Access to drinking water, roads, sanitation, irrigation
schemes, and education and health facilities
Linkages and access to other public and private
service providers
Participation of women in community institutions Participation of poor in community institutions
This exercise will focus on Research Question 1 and the first two clusters of outcome indicators Existing evaluation looking at infrastructure and social mobilisation
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Basic sampling unit: Settlement Preferred Option: Randomly selected treatment and
control settlements, based on phasing.
Option 2: Treatment settlements pre-determined and
matching control villages to be identified (propensity score matching).
Several baseline and impact evaluations staggered
time.
Difference-in-difference method for analysis, use of IV
for any possible contamination.
Results augmented with monitoring reports and data. Poverty scorecard administered in each settlement.
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A representative sample taking care of geographic
spread, partner diversity, financial weight of interventions, and multitude of components and interventions is a challenge.
Sample to be stratified to ensure adequate
representation of each cateogry.
Sample is expected to provide statistically valid
results at the project level.
Based on final stratificaton, 95% confidence level,
and ±3% error margin, a representative sample of settlements and households to be selected.
Based on simulation, an estimated 4,000 treatment
(and 4,000 control) households will be required.
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Timeline of evaluation surveys
Treatment and control groups for each cohort of baseline, mid- term and end-of-project evaluation, cohort fixed effects.
Case studies to be conducted at various points of time.
User/beneficiary surveys to be conducted at the end of each financial year.
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A portion of the financing from project
Seek remaining funds from national,
Existing MoU with premier academic
Similar linkages to be established with