PAKISTAN Water-Agriculture-Socioeconomic Linkages Dr. Ghulam Rasul - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

• Dr. Ghulam Rasul

Chief Meteorologist

Pakistan Meteorological Department

rasul@pmd.gov.pk

GEOSS WG- Asian Water Cycle I nitiative

Tokyo, May 27, 2014

PAKISTAN

Water-Agriculture-Socioeconomic Linkages

PAKISTAN INDIA AFGHANISTAN

INDUS

? ?

I ndus River Basin: Water scarcity: a frightening perspectiv

?

Too Much Water and Too Little Water

• Cloudburst Events 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010,

2011, 2012

• Prolonged Drought 1999-2002
• Historic River Flooding 2010, 2011, 2012
• Tropical Cyclones 1999,2007,2009,2010, 2011, 2012
• Snow melt flooding 2005, 2007 and 2010
• Drought at sow ing stage 2009, 2010, 2011
• Abnormally w et April-May resulted into crop damage

Major Issues

Highly variable river flows-high flows in July, August and very low in the rest of year Vulnerability to floods, drought and GLOF Highly topographic heterogeneity and remoteness making in-situ measurement difficult Degrading water quality due to exploitation of groundwater, effluent from agriculture and industries Arid coastal strips and mangrove areas are under increased environmental stress from reduced fresh water flows Lacking in adaptive capacity of Institutions and Individuals

International Projects

1. Impact of Climate Change on Melting Glaciers and Water Cycle Variability in Asian River Basin. Funding Agency – APN 2. Application of WEB-DHMS to Flood and Drought Pakistan Basins in

• UIB. Supported by: APN-UT-AWCI

3. Differentiation of solid and Liquid Precipitation in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) for Hydrological Models. Funding Agency: DFID 4. Strengthening Flood Forecasting Capabilities in Pakistan. Funding Agency: UNESCO 5. Climate Change adaptation in water and agriculture: IDRC and DFID funding 6. Early Warning System for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) in

• UIB. Funding Agency: UNDP

7. Establishment of Flash Flood Guiding System. Funding Agency: USAID 8. Demonstration of adaptation technologies at watershed scale. USAID funding

APN PROJECT-CBA2012-03NMY-RASUL

I mpact of Climate Change on Glacier Melting and Water Cycle Variability in Asian River Basins

• To improve climate change assessment and

downscaling techniques;

• Building the capacity of member countries for

climate projections;

• Training of professionals to apply WEB-DHM-S

(Hydrological Model);

• Assessment of glacier melt and hydrological regime

shift in the light of climate change scenarios;

• Assessment of water cycle variability and

development of drought early warning system.

APN Project Activities

Future Temperature Projections for Pakistan

Future Rainfall Projections for Pakistan

Projections of Climate I mpacts on Wheat Yield - Best Calibrated

Mean yield changes (%) from 20 GCM-based scenarios (top) mean-only “delta” scenarios, and (bottom) scenarios including both mean and variability changes.

Changes in Agroclimatic Matrix

Sialkot Mean Rainfall Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature Baseline Yield

0.64 0.004

• 0.48

Future Yield

0.73 0.02

• 0.57

Nankana Mean Rainfall Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature Baseline Yield

0.43

• 0.20
• 0.39

Future Yield

0.29

• 0.46
• 0.47

Sheikhupura

Mean Rainfall Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature Baseline Yield

• 0.14
• 0.37
• 0.08

Future Yield

0.22

• 0.52
• 0.39

Hafizabad Mean Rainfall Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature Baseline Yield

0.26

• 0.26
• 0.35

Future Yield

0.20

• 0.32
• 0.32

Gujranwala

Mean Rainfall Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature Baseline Yield

• 0.05

0.24 0.14

Future Yield

• 0.06
• 0.02

0.01

Change e in Pea earso son’s s correl elat ion (r) bet et w een een Whea eat yiel elds s (DSSAT) and grow ing sea seaso son m ea ean clim at e e m et et rics s in t he e basel seline e clim at e e (t op) and in t he e RCP8. 8.5 5 Mid-Cen ent ury fut ure e clim at e e sc scen enarios s (bot t om )

• A Comprehensive adaptation

package was developed by combining

• Bio-physical factors
• Policy change
• Socio-economic factors
• Information Technology and others

Solution to the Problem

• Increase in planting density (15-25 % )
• Early sowing / transplantation
• Reduction in irrigation (15-25% )
• High yielding cultivars under stressed climatic

conditions

• Supportive input/output price policy
• Off-farm income opportunities

Adaptation Package

• About 84 percent farm households would adopt

the package due to increase in net farm income

• Significant reduction in poverty among farm

households

• I mprovement in the livelihood due to increase in

farm income Adaptation I mpacts

Gainers 26% Losers 74%

Before Adaptations

Losses (Rs) Farm Population (%)

After Adaptations

Adopter s 84% Non adopters 16%

Create awareness among the common farmer Need for effective adaptation policy

Climate Smart Technologies like Efficient I rrigation Systems and change in cropping pattern etc. Comprehensive research programs to address the climate change and climate variability to ensure food security and efficient resource management

Farming Community

• Actions
• Adjustments
• Management

Government

• Strengthen the Institutions
• Policy Support
• Infrastructure Development

Society

• Awareness
• Public-private partnership
• Capacity Building

Global Partnership

• Sharing the Ideas
• Bearing the responsibilities
• Trade

Responsibilities

Roles & Responsibilities

Lead Local Organizations

1. Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad 2. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Islamabad 3. University of Agriculture Faisalabad (UAF) 4. Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), Lahore 5. Global Change Impact Studies Center (GCISC), Islamabad 6. National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Islamabad 7. Foreman Christian College Charted (FCC) University, Lahore

International Organizations

1. University of Tokyo-Japan 2. ICIMOD-Nepal 3. Colorado University-USA 4. BIOFORSK - Norway