The Political Economy of Egypt Khalid Ikram 100000 120000 140000 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Political Economy of Egypt Khalid Ikram

100000 120000 140000 160000 20000 40000 60000 80000 0 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 GDP (2005 $mn) 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 GDP & growth rate 1987 1988 1989 1990 Growth rate (%) [Right axis] 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 � 1965 � 1966 � 1967 � 1968 � 1969 � 1970 � 1971 � 1972 � 1973 � 1974 � 1975 � 1976 � 1977 � 1978 Gross capital formation (% of GDP) � 1979 � 1980 � 1981 � 1982 Investment & Savings as % GDP, 1965-2015 � 1983 � 1984 � 1985 � 1986 � 1987 � 1988 � 1989 � 1990 � 1991 � 1992 � 1993 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) � 1994 � 1995 � 1996 � 1997 � 1998 � 1999 � 2000 � 2001 � 2002 � 2003 � 2004 � 2005 � 2006 � 2007 � 2008 � 2009 � 2010 � 2011 � 2012 � 2013 � 2014 � 2015

Growth rates of percapita income (2005$) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 � 1966-70 � 1971-75 � 1976-80 � 1981-85 � 1986-90 � 1991-95 � 1996-2000 � 2001-05 � 2006-10 � 2011-15

Revenue, Expenditure & Deficit as % GDP, 1965-2015 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1965196719691971197319751977197919821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014 -10 -20 -30 Total revenue as % GDP Total expendit as % GDP Deficit as % GDP

Composition of Expenditures, 1965-2015 (% of total) $Central, local, and service agencies +Public economic organizations & authorities Subsidies � � Interest Investment 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Poverty headcount 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1982 1991 1996 2000 2005 2009 2011 2013 Poverty (% pop) Rural poverty (% rural pop) Urban poverty (% urban pop)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Net ODA AS % Gross Capital Formation 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total & concessional external debt (US$ mn & percent) 60000 90 80 50000 70 40000 60 50 30000 40 20000 30 20 10000 10 0 0 19701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014 Total external debt (US$ mn) Concessional debt (% total debt) [rt axis]

Dependency ratios 1950 73 1960 84 1970 86 1980 81 1990 80 100 2000 75 2010 69 90 2020 59 80 2030 57 70 2040 55 60 2050 52 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 4.1. Dependency ratios, 1950-2050 (perccent of population) Ratio of age groups 0-14 and 65+ to age-group15-64 (Medium variant for projections 2020-2050) Source: United Nations, World Population Projections: The 2012 Revision