The North Slope: Opportunities & Challenges Scott Jepsen, Vice - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

November 16, 2016

The North Slope: Opportunities & Challenges

Scott Jepsen, Vice President External Affairs & Transportation

Agenda

• Investment History and Opportunities
• Alaska’s Challenges
• Tipping Point?

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Safety

0.59 0.67 0.53 0.22 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD

Total Recordable Incident Rate

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Note: 2016 YTD represents Jan - Sep

Achieving an Incident-Free Culture is a core value for ConocoPhillips The collective efforts of our contractors have helped us achieve a significant change in safety performance

We are on track for our safest year ever in 2016

ConocoPhillips North Slope Activity Since Tax Reform Passed in 2013

• Added two rigs to the Kuparuk rig fleet, 2013-2015
• Two new-build rigs delivered this year
• Doyon 142 and Nabors CDR3
• 5 rigs in Kuparuk/Alpine by 4Q 2016
• New drill site at Kuparuk (DS 2S) – on stream a year ago
• Estimated 8,000 BOPD gross peak production rate
• About $475 million gross cost to develop and 250+ construction

jobs

• CD5 on stream
• Producing 20,000 BOPD vs 16,000 BPD gross
• 18-well addition approved in April 2016
• Significant other industry investment

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North Slope oil decline less than 1% in 2015

Source: Alyeska Pipeline Service Company

New Opportunities/Exploration

• GMT1 construction started
• Final investment decision made late 2015; first oil late 2018
• About $900 million gross cost; peak estimated gross rate ~30,000 BOPD
• About 600-700 jobs during this upcoming winter construction season
• Permitting underway for GMT2
• $1+ billion gross investment
• Will create 600-700 jobs during construction
• First oil late 2020?
• Viscous oil expansion in Kuparuk (1H NEWS)
• Est. 8,000 BOPD gross, 100+ construction jobs
• About $450 million gross cost to develop
• Some facility work starting up; first oil in late 2018
• Active Exploration Program
• Two wells drilled in 2014
• Acquired GMT1 Seismic – 2015
• Three wells in 2016 (NPRA), one planned for 2017
• Seismic program in NPRA in 2017

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Extended Reach Drilling Rig Announced

• Contracted with Doyon Drilling to

build an Extended Reach Drilling (ERD) rig

• Expected delivery 2020
• Will be used first at Alpine
• Potential breakthrough addition to

North Slope rig fleet

• ~125 square miles can be

developed from a single drill site – more than double current capability

• Mobile – can be deployed

anywhere on the Slope

• Reduces development footprint,

minimizes environmental impact, fewer drilling pads

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Gross Capital Spend for Prudhoe, Kuparuk, Alpine, Point Thomson: 2012-2016

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $ Millions

AK LNG – Potential Paradigm Shift?

• Traditional commercial approach is

uneconomic at current and forecasted LNG prices

• In all the previous attempts to monetize North

Slope gas, the market has at some point crashed and no longer supported the effort

• Success in the market place has and will

require being highly competitive on cost of supply

• ConocoPhillips is supportive of the State

pursuing a path not available to the private sector

• Low cost financing
• Tax-exempt status

9 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20

Asia Spot LNG NW Europe National Balancing Point U.S. Henry Hub

$ per MMBtu

Regional Natural Gas Prices

Challenges – Increase in Oil Taxes?

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• Price and Cost of

Supply drive investor profitability

• Cost of Supply is

critical to investor viability in low price environment

• State takes the

highest share of revenue at all prices

Investors negative 

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $ Millions

? ?

Gross Capital Spend for Prudhoe, Kuparuk, Alpine, Point Thomson: 2012-2016

Federal Challenges and Competition

• Access to federal lands
• Significant potential on both onshore and
• ffshore lands
• ~ 11 million acres unavailable for leasing in NPRA
• Permitting on available lands lengthy and difficult
• Offshore access problematic
• Regional Mitigation Strategies could further slow

and complicate development

• Significant competition in the shale oil

unconventional play

• Lower cost, closer to market, fewer

environmental issues, mostly private lands

• Thousands of drilling opportunities – new focus
• f the U.S oil industry

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Northeast NPRA –Cross hatched lands unavailable for leasing

New Era of Abundance for U.S. Oil Supply

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5 10 15 20 25

Million Barrels per Day

Conventional Production U.S. Tight Oil NGLs Alaska Crude High Resource Case

U.S. Crude, Condensate and Natural Gas Liquids Production

U.S. Department of Energy Forecast

U.S. crude production nearly doubled between 2008 and 2015 after falling by half during the previous four decades

"Peak Oil"

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Monthly Energy Review August 2016, Table 3.1. Forecast from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2016

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 L48 Tight Play Existing OPEC Deepwater Oil Sands Other Non-OPEC

Incremental Global Oil Supply for 2020

Higher cost supply needs to compete with relatively low cost U.S. tight oil

65 80 85 90 95 100

Existing

U.S. Tight Oil U.S. Tight Oil Russia Mexico

Real 2015 $/bbl

US & Canada

Saudi Arabia Gulf States

Algeria Venez. Nigeria Ghana Azerbaijan Brazil GOM Oil Sands China Other Non-OPEC U.S. Tight Oil Other OPEC

Million Barrels per Day

Other Deepwater

70 75

Source: ConocoPhillips Chief Economists Office, Rystad Ucube; gross production growth before declines, boxes are indicative of the types of assets from each category not a fully inclusive list

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Alaska is at a Tipping Point

• State challenge: fiscal gap solution
• Federal challenges:
• Greater access to federal acreage
• Reliable and timely federal permitting processes
• Access
• AKLNG – A new approach by a State-led entity could result in a competitive

project

• Alaska is still opportunity rich – but so is the rest of the world and especially

the Lower 48. Decisions over the next few years will determine if Alaska can stay in the game.

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