Emerging Automotive Trends: Chinese, Electric, & Shared 1 My - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Emerging Automotive Trends: Chinese, Electric, & Shared 1 My - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 22, 2023 130 likes •744 views

Emerging Automotive Trends: Chinese, Electric, & Shared 1 My Research Space Market analysis: Innovation: 2 3 3 China: Worlds largest vehicle market & room to grow 4 China: Worlds largest vehicle market

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Emerging Automotive Trends: Chinese, Electric, & Shared

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Market analysis:

  • Innovation:
  • My Research Space
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China: World’s largest vehicle market & room to grow

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China: World’s largest vehicle market & room to grow

5 EU (2015) Japan (2015)

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China: World’s largest vehicle market & room to grow

6 EU (2015) Japan (2015)

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In 2015, ~1/3 of all new cars in world were made in China

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China becoming #1 market for many global automakers

2015 Sales by Top 7 Automakers (75% of Global Sales)

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In 2015, 77% of Buick’s Sales were in China

Fun Fact: Buicks are wildly popular in China

Zhou Enlai’s Buick at his Shanghai residence [2]

1: http://www.verztec.com/blog/index.php/2010/11/rebuilding-your-brand-in-china/ 2: http://insight.amcham-shanghai.org/buicks-road-success-china/

Emperor Pu Yi’s 1932 Buick Tudor [1]

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2017 Buick Enclave will be imported from China

Image source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Buick_Envision_01_China_2015-04-06.jpg

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Image source: https://www.memecenter.com/fun/139651/Electric-car

Electric Cars

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Plug-in Vehicles (PEVs)

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Rapid PEV Sales Growth in China & Europe (U.S. Slowing Down?)

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Global Automakers (+ Tesla & BYD) Are Charging Ahead

(Lame joke)

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PEVs Only <1-2% of Global Vehicle Sales

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Same Old Problems...

Image Source: Wakefield, Ernest Henry. "History of the electric automobile: battery-only powered cars." Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc. Warrendale, PA 1994. Image Source: Mom, Gijs. "The electric vehicle: Technology and expectations in the automobile age." The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD. 2004.

1st Ford Model T

High Cost Limited Range & Infrastructure

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Policy-Drivers for PEV Industry Growth

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Subsidies Fuel Economy Standards Zero Emission Vehicle Standards

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U.S. & China Offer Similar Subsidies for PEVs

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Battery is still ~25% of BEV Cost (2015 est.)

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Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)

Image Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy

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Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)

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“Zero Emission” Vehicle (ZEV)

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Ex: Tesla 2015 Sales by State

Data Source: http://insideevs.com/california-leads-nation-in-tesla-model-s-sales-but-which-other-states-are-in-top-10/

ZEV Compliant No ZEV Standard

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ZEV credit sales not a negligible revenue source

Data source: Tesla shareholder letters

2016 Q3: $139 million in ZEV credits turned a $117 million loss into a $22 million profit

ZEV Credit Sales Revenue R&D Expenditures

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Beijing Shanghai

Local Policy Impacts in China

~

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Traditional Business Models for PEVs: Design, Build, Sell

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Tesla’s Strategy: Tiered Cost Reduction Through Scale Up

Roadster (2008):

  • $110,000
  • ~1,800 sold in 30 countries

Model S (2012):

  • $71,000
  • ~20,000 units / year

Model 3 (2018?):

  • $35,000
  • ~100,000 units / year

Price Volumes

Roadster: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tesla_Roadster_--_02-11-2011.jpg Model S:https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tesla_Model_S_Japan_trimmed.jpg Model 3: https://c1.staticflickr.com/2/1527/25601887064_b3ff4b9a47_z.jpg

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Big factories won’t make batteries cheap

Source: Sakti, Apurba, et al. "A techno-economic analysis and optimization of Li-ion batteries for light-duty passenger vehicle electrification." Journal of Power Sources 273 (2015): 966-980.

"Battery economies of scale are exhausted quickly, at around 200-300 MWh of annual

  • production. That's

comparable to the amount

  • f batteries produced for

the Nissan Leaf last year"

  • Jeremy Michalek, CMU

Estimated 2013 Battery Capacity Production Volume Model S 1100 MWh Leaf 500 MWh Volt 400 MWh C-Max Energi 50 MWh Prius PHEV 50 MWh Focus Elec 40 MWh RAV4EV 30 MWh

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Tesla’s only had 2 positive profit quarters since going public

Revenue Net Profit

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...but Tesla also built an infrastructure

Image source: http://www.hybridcars.com/tesla-updates-map-of-supercharger-sites/

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Emerging Business Models for PEVs

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Why do elevators have mirrors?

Image source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/34323101@N00/26472155

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Hyperbolic Discounting: People value smaller-sooner rewards over larger-later rewards

Image source: https://blog.kissmetrics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/unnamed.png

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These two cars have the same lifetime cost

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Battery leasing makes PEVs “look” more like CVs

With battery lease Without battery lease

Image source: https://www.renault.co.uk/vehicles/new-vehicles/zoe-250/battery-and-charging.html

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Battery Leasing + Battery Swap

Image source: http://automotivedigest.com/2013/06/sad-ending-for-ev-battery-swapping-icon-better-place/

Better Place: Classic failure case Barriers to this taking off:

  • No battery standardization
  • High infrastructure costs

...and we may never need it:

  • Batteries are getting cheaper

(more range for less $)

  • Quick charging getting better

(rapid to 80% SOC)

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Car Sharing

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  • PEV Advantages

PEV Disadvantages

PEV vs. CV for Car Sharing

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Making BEV Car Sharing Work

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Ex: Car2Go, San Diego

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Image source: http://www.autoblog.com/2016/03/17/car2go-kills-all-ev-fleet-san-diego-gas-cars/

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  • Ex: Yiduyongche, Beijing China

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Image source: http://www.yiduyongche.com/index.html

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Ex: Eakay, Wuhu China

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  • ~
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Low Speed EVs - the Real Disruptors?

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Low Speed EVs - the Real Disruptors?

Read: “The Future of Electric Vehicles Is Golf Carts, Not Tesla” by Thomas Bartman, Harvard Business Review

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LSEV Industry Structure Radically Different

Image sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/

Conventional Vehicles LSEVs Firm / Industry Structure Horizontal Vertical # of Parts Per Vehicle ~30,000 ~1,000 Minimum Efficient Plant Size ~100,000 / year ~10,000 / year

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Thanks!

微信

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Extra Slides

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3 Reasons China’s Leadership Wants PEVs

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Reduce Pollution Reduce Oil Dependence Establish Industry Leadership

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Reduce Pollution (?)

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China: world’s largest oil importer, 2nd largest oil consumer

52 China is importing 55%

  • f consumption!
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Independent domestic firms are leading China’s PEV market

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Independent domestic firms are leading China’s PEV market

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Are batteries too expensive?

Source: Nykvist, Björn, and Måns Nilsson. "Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles." Nature Climate Change 5.4 (2015): 329-332.

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Loss Aversion: People would rather avoid a loss than reap a reward

Image source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/09/your-money/overcoming-an-aversion-to-loss.html

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Image source: http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis7.php

Can BEVs Drive Far Enough?

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Image source: http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis7.php

Can BEVs Drive Far Enough?

2017 Chevy Bolt (240 mi)

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