The issue of water and food security The issue of water and food - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The issue of « water and food security » The issue of « water and food security » a perspective

2013, February 21-22

A Presentation proposed on behalf of the SESAME working group on "indicators"

Guillaume BENOIT Chair, PFE group on "Water and Food Security” General Engineer, CGAAER, France

,

y

g , ,

1

AL Albania BA Bosnia-Herz

• Contributions, References

Blue Plan, IME, Margat CIHEAM IPEMED/FEMISE IWMI FAO CIRAD

BA Bosnia-Herz. CY Cyprus DZ Algeria EG Egypt

CIHEAM, IPEMED/FEMISE, IWMI, FAO, CIRAD… CGAAER (WWF6 report from PFE group), CGDA, INRA France & Morocco, Hamdane,.. the SESAME working GROUP on INDICATORS : CGAAER, Blue Plan, CHIEAM

EG Egypt ES Spain FR France GR Greece

• Acronyms

HR Croatia IL Israel IT Italy

– MED : Mediteranean riparian countries – PNM : North Rim countries (ES to GR) PSEM : South and East Rim countries (MA to TR)

y LB Lebanon LY Libya MA Morocco

– PSEM : South and East Rim countries (MA to TR) – PAM : the Mediterranean Arab Countries (Jordan included) – MENA : Middle East & North Africa

MC Monaco ME Montenegro MT Malta PS Palestine SI Slovenia SY Syria TN T i i TN Tunisia TR Turkey

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Presentation outline

1. A global challenge: 7 joint priorities 2. Within the Mediterranean: risks of deadlocks 3. Water for food, agriculture and territories

– Agriculture and rurality: importance, contrast and weaknesses – Irrigation: risks of deadlocks, alternatives ways Rainfed agriculture: risks of deadlocks alternative ways – Rainfed agriculture: risks of deadlocks, alternative ways

4. Conclusions

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

1/ A GLOBAL CHALLENGE

Water : Food Security :

A rising issue : the 2007-2008 crisis, G20, WWF6…

y

For feeding :

• one billion hungry

No Water No Agriculture Systems in danger :

• shortages, droughts ..

i i C l il bili

• e b
• u g y
• one more billion to come (2027)

Systems in danger :

• verexploitation, salinization in

irrigated systems

• erosion, desertification in rainfed
• increase in Cereal availability

+ 340 millions tons by 2027 (= USA)

• access to food

erosion, desertification in rainfed systems

• land and water losses through

urban sprawl and agricultural > 50% budget for poor households

• stability
• nutrition

urban sprawl and agricultural abandonment nutrition Better manage water / soils / systems for increasing: availability (+ 70%), income for rural people, sustainability, quality and stability p p , y, q y y

NB: the Global Cereal Production is 2.3 billion tons (2012). To feed one billion more people by 2027 (with no inclination towards eating more meat), it would be necessary to increase the available production by 328,000 tons, i.e. roughly the USA Cereal Production in 2005 (366,000 tons)

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Evolution in the number of hungry people between 1990 and 2010

(people in million) – Source: FAO

Hungry people people

(75% rural people)

Source: CIHEAM/Abis, data FAO Asia Sub-saharan Africa Latin America Middle East/North Africa

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Global Food Security | Blue Water & Green Water

Irrigation :

• 20% global agricultural lands ; end of strong growth

1961 2009 + 117% (+162 illi h )

• 1961-2009 : + 117% (+162 million ha)
• 2009-2050 : + 9% à + 16% (FAO, IWMI)
• 40% global production (with productivity 3 times more than rainfed )

g p ( p y ) Rainfed : 60% global production, a main challenge for the 21st century?

Who manages,who produces ?

2 6 billi f ( t d fi ) 2,6 billion farmers (steady figures) « Small farming » : 70% of global production global production Significant room for progress and productivity improvement

Source: FAO & FIDA

Farmland per capita (ha) Non irrigated Irrigated

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Intensification per ha 1960-2010 : contrasting Nord/Sud

Gl b l A i l l P l 2 6 billi ( d )

Crop (kcal / day) per ha

Global Agricultural People: 2,6 billion (steady)

400 000 200 000

h t

100 000 kcal per farmer 12 500 25 000 50 000 6 250

hectares cropped per farmer

12 500 6 250

2 10 5 20

Area cultivated (ha) per farmer

Source CIRAD B. Dorin from FAO data, in "Agrimonde" (Paillard & al., 2010)

( ) p

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Unevenly distributed resources

Dry areas (arid, semi-arid)

2,5 % of continental water 373 millions people in 1950 1 2 billi i 2000 1.2 billion in 2000 1.8 billion in 2025 (22 % people)

Water scarcity

Physical scarcity Economical scarcity Economical scarcity

8

Source: IWMI

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Which prospects, globally ?

Strengths Weaknesses Strengths

• No global lack of water
• Irrigation extension in the 20th century 20% / 40%.

But strong development is behind

Weaknesses

• Misallocated water, increasing shortages
• Urbans tend to forget their dependency on

countryside: insecurity in rural areas (rainfed But strong development is behind

• Numerous examples of solutions local governance,

agronomics (eg SRI), policy (eg Vietnam,…) countryside: insecurity in rural areas (rainfed, smallholder farming), rights and competition, lack

• f rural policy, investment, training, market access

+ waste => higher prices, riots, hunger, poverty

• Many systems in danger: erosion, overfishing,

drought, ... and less oil and chemistry! Paradigm change required

Threats

• No integration between Development and

Environment

• Non inclusive Development (small farms)

k f i d d i

Opportunities

• Lack of awareness on 3 interdependancies

(urban/rural, upstream/downstream, country) Defects in policies, cooperation, concertation

• Climate change

pp

• Crisis : agriculture, a strategic priority
• G20, analysis from IWMI, FAO, WWF6.…
• Potential: small agriculture ecological
• Climate change
• A « Busines as usual » scenario expensive and at

high risk

• A global crisis may result from accumulated local

Potential: small agriculture, ecological intensification, storage efficiency, waste reduction

• Manage as if « common goods », territorial

governance (Ostrom) A global crisis may result from accumulated local accidents

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

WWF6 : Act simultaneously in 7 directions

Water demand management policies

• Innovation in agronomics
• Organizations/institutions
• Policies of Demand Management

More efficient resource mobilization

• Storage …
• Non conventional waters

Rainfed : « conservation » agriculture

• Ecological intensification: direct seeding,

permanent cover,… Support to small scale

• Rights of access to water empowerment

Support to small-scale agriculture / water valorization

• Rights of access to water, empowerment
• « Terroir » territorial approach
• Rural policies (eg 2nd CAP Pillar PMV)

Manage hot spots

• Overexploited aquifers
• Drinkwater catchments, fragile and valuable

environments Act upstream and downstream of production

• Soil losses + Food waste
• Social safety nets (PSE)

Visions & strategies S b nat Regions ( atershed/prod ction)

10

Visions & strategies

• Sub-nat Regions (watershed/production)
• Int’l Regions (eg MED / Euro-Med)

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Achieve a paradigm shift

An era of change An era of change…

sustainable

holo-centrism

Sustainable Agriculture:

agriculture

• New urban/rural terms

(up/down-stream, resource- rich/poor countries)

precision

techno-centrism

• rganic

éco-centrism c /poo cou es)

• Produce better, more,
• everywhere. Productivity &

ecosystem alliance /

precision agriculture

• rganic

agriculture

ecosystem alliance / sustainable resource management / diversity

• Knowledge intensive

Conventional

• Knowledge-intensive

systems (local x formal)

• Territorial governance

S ll l

industrial agriculture réductionnism

• Support to small-scale

agriculture

…a change of era

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Quatre grands principes pour un avenir durable

• 1. Sustainable intensification:

a productivity &

• 3. Support small-scale

agriculture a productivity & ecosystem alliance agriculture 2 Innovation: technical and

• 4. Territorial governance /
• 2. Innovation: technical and
• rganisational, R & D

g principle of subsidiarity

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Territorialization

Four main territorial scales

• Local : water / agriculture management: the « arts of community »

city / agriculture : reduce wastes, conserve lands, …

• Sub National Region/ Basin : planification
• Sub-National Region/ Basin : planification
• National : law, policies. Agricultural, rural, food policies
• Necessary policy convergence
• International region : common destiny, conflict prevention, shared

vision : towards a Euromed « new deal » ?

Principle of subsidiarity

vision : towards a Euromed « new deal » ?

Principle of subsidiarity

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

2/ MEDITERRANEAN : RISKS OF DEADLOCKS

Rising needs : + 63 million people within 15 years Rising needs : + 63 million people within 15 years

PSEM : still high population growth, despite the decline in fertility rates

Fertility rates

600

Population 1950 ‐ 2010 et projection variante moyenne

Millions d'habitants

despite the decline in fertility rates

600

The Mediterranean Population 1950-2010 and its average projection to 2100

400 500

Méditerranée

Total MED

2025

200 300

Nord Sud & Est

200

North South & East

100 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

S Pl Bl d' è UN W ld P l i P h 2010 R i i

1950 2025 2050 2010 2100

Population in the Mediterranean (1950: 206 million) 2010 : 471 million

More Needs to be met

Food J b 15 illi b t 2010

Source: Blue Plau, Data UN

Source : Plan Bleu d'après UN ‐ World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision

Source CIHEAM/Abis, data UN

2010 : 471 million 2025 : 534 (+ 63 million) 2050 : 590 (+ 119 million) Jobs: 15 million more between 2010 and 2020 (50% in EG) … 14

• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

2025 a rapid Urbanisation : cities to be fed

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Food: the first item in the household budget An issue of price income and competitiveness An issue of price, income and competitiveness

y wer parity asing pow in purcha er capita GDP pe Proportion of household budget spent on Food p g p

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Unevenly distributed (blue) water resource

E t h d t h d North (*) : East : shared watersheds North (*) : 90% of water resource

Water demand = 138 km3 % f i = 13% of potential conventional resource

South (**) : 10% of water resource 10% of water resource

Water demand = 116 km3 = 105% of potential conventional resource

Internal resource National resource, km3 (2005) External resource from Riparian countries

conventional resource

Southern Mediterranean = 60% of the global water-poor population

Non-riparian countries

(*) Portugal included; (**) Jordan not incl. (Source Margat 2012) 17

• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

irrigated systems + rainfed systems + importations

Food Security in the Mediterranean

irrigated systems + rainfed systems + importations = the combined Blue + Green + « Virtual » waters

A i l l Agricultural systems

Irrigated zones (old and new)

Several fertile plains , and large areas with agro-woodland-pastoral systems

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Food Security in the Mediterranean :

1960-2005: the irrigated area was doubled 1960-2005: the irrigated area was doubled

Irrigation: g 26 million ha :

PSEM 13,4 PNM 12,6

Irrigation + 95% since 1961, End of growth since 2005 ( t bilit d ti PNM)

ha

Rainfed (stability, reduction PNM) Potential used PSEM 90 to 100% (except TR, LB, DZ)

million h

Rainfed

0.25 ha

00% (e cep , , ) Arable land and permanent crops: Pasture and rangelands permanent crops: 90 millions ha Pasture and rangelands

Source CIHEAM / Brun 2013 (data FAOSTAT)

Pasture and rangelands 130 millions ha

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Food Security in the Mediterranean : which waters? World Mediterranean

Virtual water Importations nettes 136 Water borrowed by crops

(evapo transpiration) Watering by rain (green water)

5.560 447

I i ti

1 570 102*

(evapo-transpiration) Irrigation (blue water)

1.570 102* Total water for food security 7.130 685 Water mobilized by Irrigation 2.664 (70%) 173

(60%)

Cities 381

(10%)

38 y men (withdrawal +production.) = Cities 381 (10%) 38 Evap from reservoirs

• 23

Blue waterdemand reservoirs Industry, fuel 785 (20%) 57 Total blue water 3 830

(100%)

296 Total blue water 3.830 (100%) 296

Source IWMI (global figures), Blue Plan (Mediterranean figures); * calculated from IWMI world (1570/2664x173)

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Food Security in the Mediterranean : which waters?

4

i i ti

A

Eau

(volumes km3/yr; 2000-2005)

1 Rainfed 2

Blue water for

Irrigation

3 Virtual water

4 Blue water

(all uses)

irrigation / blue water

(2/4) % Ag.water (1+2+3) / total water (1+3+4)

MA+ DZ + TN

68 14 68 18 79% 97%

EG +LY

1 62 27 75 83% 85%

IL + PS + SY + LB

16 16 13 20 84% 94%

TR

85 30 4 40 75% 92%

GR+AL+ BA+ HA+

37 8 10 12 68% 93%

GR+AL+ BA+ HA+ SI+ME

37 8 10 12 68% 93%

ES+ IT+ MT+ CY

140 38 24 65 58% 88%

FR

100 4

• 10

35 12% 75%

Total MED 448 173 136 265 65% 90% Total MED 448 173 136 265 65% 90%

Food Security = + 90% of water resource Importance of blue and virtual waters

How to optimize the triad

Source Blue Plan 2012, period 2000-2005

p Particular case : Egypt, France

How to optimize the triad blue - green – virtual waters ?

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Food Security in the Mediterranean : which waters?

W t f F d S it Rainfed : 448 km3, Water for Food Security : 90% of total water , Irrigated : 173 km3 (60% of total Blue water) Virtual : 136 km3

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Climate change : a predicted fall in run-offs

%

Effects of climate change on runoff : [2041-2060], compared to [1900-1970] (%)

Source: Global warming and water availability, P.C.D., Milly, United States geological survey (USGS).

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Climate : already severe impacts

Run-off Variability Run off Variability Climate Change

• Maroc

3-decadal averaged runoff series 3 decadal averaged runoff series into Bin el Ouidane

• Montpellier / Languedoc-Roussillon (France) 2010/1980

– Temperature (average) summer : + 2,3° winter : + 0,8° – Rainfall : significant increase in inter-annual variability – Climate : shift from semi-humid to semi-arid – Evapotranspiration: + 240 mm in plains (+ 20 à 30%) + 125 mm on hills Evapotranspiration: + 240 mm in plains (+ 20 à 30%), + 125 mm on hills – Loss in agricultural production (equivalent): - 11% (- 0,9 ton dry-matter/ha)

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Southern France : Climate Change trajectories since 1979

SUMMER ARIDITY i d

rranean rid rranean mid rate ate dry dityerranean ub-humid mperate rate dry

SUMMER ARIDITY index ex

Mediter semi-ar Mediter sub-hum Temper Tempera sub-Med

• Med. su

sub-tem Temper Humid

DIY inde AL ARID

Sub-humid Dry sub-humid

ANNUA

Semi-arid

Source : INRA

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Climate Change: France getting more ‘‘Mediterranean’’

Alpine Sub–Alpine Sub Alpine Fir Oak Oak Chestnut M iti Pi Source INRA Maritime Pine Holm Oak

A more Mediterranean Climate (water deficit > 400 mm) :

• to affect 25 / 30% of territory since 2040; > 50% by 2100 ?

M j h d i l l d Major changes announced on: water, agriculture, landscapes

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

the Mediterranean Population exposed to water poverty or shortage (2010, 2025, 2050) water poverty or shortage (2010, 2025, 2050)

Population (million)

2010 2025 2050

Population (million)

2010 2025 2050

Total MED

471 534 590

Shortage ( < 500 m3 per capita)

64 114 287

Poverty

( 500 - 1000 m3 )

135 133 5

T i

( )

4

Tension ( 1000 - 1500 m3)

4

Comfort ( > 1500 m3)

268 287 299

( )

7 99

• Source: Population: UN

Water: Blue Plan Assumptions on resource decline from USGS map

All Mediterranean countries of South Rim + Middle East (except Lebanon) to be in a marked water-shortage situation by 2050 ?

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

2010 290 million to become water-short in the Mediterranean by 2050?

Water resource per capita. comfort i

y

tension poverty shortage : 64 million in 2010 illi i 287 million in 2050

2025 2050 2050

Source données:

• Population: UN (World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision)
• Water resource: Blue Plan
• Assumptions on climate-originated water resourcee decline by 2025 / 2050,

from USGS map

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Cereal imports multiplied by 20 in 50 years? (MENA)

MENA : imports grew from 3 t 60 illi t Cereal imports into MENA 1960 – 2011 (M tons)

Increase in half a century

3 to 60 million tons Wheat Imports in Egypt :

Before 1939 : 30.000 tons Now : 10,4 million tons

In 1939, Maghreb export 700.000 tons of wheat towards FR In 2010, Algeria imports 6,4 million In 2010, Algeria imports 6,4 million tons Food Deficit for MENA

MENA

• 2003 : - 752 Gkcal/day
• 2050 : -1436 Gkcal/day

MENA =30%

• f global

cereal imports

Source : CIHEAM / Abis

(average of 4 scénarios Agrimonde)

imports 29

• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Dependency on food imports + world prices rising = exploding the amounts of agricultural deficit = exploding the amounts of agricultural deficit

FAO Price index (S

FAO)

Arab Mediterranean countries Amounts of agricultural deficit: FAO Price index (Source FAO) Amounts of agricultural deficit: evolution 1980-2011 (billion $)

Source : CIHEAM/Abis, données OMC

Average deficit (2007-2011) Arab Med Countries 21,4 billion USD Algeria 7,2 billion USD Egypt 5,9 billion USD

30 Source : CIHEAM/Abis, données OMC

Egypt 5,9 billion USD

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Consumer subsidies (food and energy) a cost that becomes fiscally unsustainable a cost that becomes fiscally unsustainable

Amounts odf subsidies (food and fuel)

food energy Total

Amounts odf subsidies (food and fuel) en % GDP (PSEM 2007-2008) Evolution 2001-2011

gy Egypte 1,8

6,7 8,5

Jordan 1,8

1,4 3,2 Case Morocco (% GDP)

,

1,4 3,2

Syria 2,3

10,3* 12,6

Tunisia 1 5

1** 2 5

Tunisia 1,5

1 2,5

Morocco 1,2

3,8 5,0

PSEM 1 2

3 9 5 1

PSEM 1,2

3,9 5,1

Source FEMISE, data IMF

(*)including, (**) excluding indirect or implicit subsidies 31

• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Subsidies for « fuel and food »

• subsidies that can :
• benefit mainly the rich
• subsidize imports (wheat ...) to the detriment of local production
• subsidize overuse of water (grants for oil and gas), and hinder the energy transition
• r cause food price inflation : Syria : + 40% from June, 2011 to June, 2012

HOW TO REFORM ?

• better selecting targets

g g

• move towards direct cash transfers with social and environmental conditionality:

PES (Payments for Environmental Services) ??

32

• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

3/ WATER FOR FOOD, AGRICULTURE AND TERRITORIES

1. Agriculture and rurality: importance, contrasts et fragilities 2. Irrigation: risks of deadlocks and alternatives 3. Rainfed agriculture : risks of deadlocks and alternatives g Agricultural systems

Irrigated zones (old and new)

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

3.1 Agriculture and rurality

A i lt l P l t ti N th/S th Agricultural People : contrasting North/South

World 2203 to 2601 million China 743 to 776 million Arab Mediterranean countries 50 to 41 million China 743 to 776 million Turkey 18 to 12 million France Italy Spain 18 to 3 million

Source : data FAOSTAT 2012

France Italy Spain 18 to 3 million

Source : data FAOSTAT 2012 presentation CGAAER Dec, 2012

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

PSEM : the strategic importance of agriculture

A crucial sector

• 72 million (25% total Med. population)
• 25% jobs (30 to 40% in MA TR)
• 25% jobs (30 to 40% in MA, TR)
• Up to 20% GDP. Strong contribution to growth in many countries (including Tunisia

with a diversified economy: agriculture signs 1/3 GDP growth) A still dual sector, an often still low productivity

• Deviations in tenure size, importance of subsistance farming
• Poor access to credit, technology, subsidies for numerous small/medium farmers
• Low water productivity (irrigated and rainfed) / yields (depending on country)

A ( h j ) k d l i h i l l i d i l A (the major) key to « development »: economic , human, social, rural, industrial and for food security

• Potential for progress (when professionnalisation/structuring small/medium farmers)
• Brilliant recent successes in structuring and professionalization for smallholder

agriculture (eg COPAG) demonstrate the potential

• New agricultural policies (eg the Green Morocco Plan 2008-2020)

New ag cu tu a po c es (eg t e G ee

• occo

a 008 0 0) Relative weight of difficult areas / challenge and need for rural developpement

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

The relative weight of difficult areas : case Morocco

P i i Large Agro- ecosystems Mountains Saharan, Oasian Semi-arid Propitious rainfed Large irrigation perimeters

Total

UAA** (M h )

1 7 / 0 2 0 2 / 0 1 3 8 / 0 1 2 3 / 0 1 0 71

UAA** (M ha) / Irrigated

surface

1,7 / 0,2 0,2 / 0,1 3,8 / 0,1 2,3 / 0,1 0,71 8,7 / 1,3

UAA / total

15% 29% 60% 100% 12%

UAA / total agro-systems

15% … 29% 60% 100% 12%

rural population

3,7 0,9 5,1 3,0 * 12,7

p p agricultural population

2,7 0,6 3,7 1,9 * 8,9

number of number of farms

473.000 85.000 520.000 288.000 100.000 1,5 million

• micro farms

600.000 R l ti Difficult areas 2/3 UAA 1/3 i i t d UAA l d Propitious areas 1/3 UAA 2/3 i

i t d UAA

• S/M farms

750.000

• large farms

150 000 Relative weights 2/3 UAA; 1/3 irrigated UAA, rangelands 70% farms 80% agricultural & rural population C iti 1/3 UAA, 2/3 irrigated UAA 30% farms 20% agricultural & rural population 150.000 Communities population

Source Agricultural Morocco Atlas 2009, CGDA, population census1996 * The people in large irrigated perimeters are included in ‘semi-arid’ and ‘propitious rainfed’ zones

** UAA = utilized agricultural area (SAU in French)

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Land fragmentation + Cereals = Poverty trap?

(eg estimated income for a median si e farm in Morocco) (eg estimated income for a median size farm in Morocco)

Deficit in investment and added value

1.5 million 19.7 million Excessive fragmentation of the UAA Simulated annual income (DH) Tomato Apple

half of the farms are less than 2.1 ha

Apple Orange Olive 37

Farms UAA (ha)

Wheat 37

A cereal cropping farm over 2,1 ha = annual income 180 €

Source: MAP Morocco

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Imbalance in i i l d l territorial development = precarity in rural areas

Tunisia: Tunisia: income situation coastal areas vs inland areas

(though water providers)

Number of people with less than 2 $/day (%)

Poverty threshold 2 $/day threshold 2 $/day

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Territorial imbalances: = systems endangered from = systems endangered from upstream to downstream

Hinterlands / water collecting areas:

• Marginalization, poverty
• Erosion, desertification
• Fires, abandonment

Coastal areas :

• Coveted water and land,
• Artificialization,
• Water overexploitation eau, Soil

salinization

Interdependancies up-/down-stream p p

• Rural exodus / exporting poverty

to cities

• Erosion / siltation of reservoirs

Source Blue Plan

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Territorial imbalances: abandonment and urban sprawl in the North abandonment and urban sprawl in the North

L f d ti l d

North Rim Countries

Loss of productive land

• –13 million ha UAA in 50 years
• – 10 million ha pasture

Irrigation

p

• urban sprawl in France

65.000 ha/an !

Rainfed + big fires : 4,6% of

Portugal burnt in 2003

Rainfed

Agriculture : an adjustment variable?

Pasture and rangelands

Source CIHEAM/ Brun 2013, data FAO

Urban sprawl also affects PSEM. Losses documented in Grand Algiers : 140.000 ha ;

40

p g ; in Egypt : 10.000 ha/year (14% UAA in 42 years) ; in Lebanon : 15% irrigated lands in 20 years

(Source Blue Plan 2005 & several national sources) 40

• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

3.2 Irrigation : risks of deadlocks and alternatives

D d d i h/ h Demand and resources (km3: 2000-2008) : contrasting north/south

T t l

Source : IME/ /Margat (data Blue Plan)

Mediterranean countries

North rim South & East

(incl. Turkey)

Total Riparian c.

Exploitable resources 310 190 500 Exploitable resources 310 190 500 Water demand :

• irrigation

126

44%

170

72%

296

60%

• evaporation from reservoirs
• drinking water
• énergy

4% 18% 25% 11% 9% 4% 8% 13% 13%

• industry

10% 4% 7%

Supply sources :

• renewable primary resources (incl

126

125

170

148

296

273 renewable primary resources (incl.

• fossile water overexploitation)
• withrawals from secondary resources
• reuse (into irrigation)

125 1 148 6 6 10 273 6 6 10

41

reuse (into irrigation)

• desalinization

0.6 0.3 1

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

R ff bili ti A il bl t it

Le contraste nord /sud : exemples Le contraste nord /sud : exemples Contrasting North/South : examples

200%

Runoff mobilization rate for irrigation Available storage capacity compared to average runoff

200% 50%

average runoff

70% 2.5% 15% 3%

• Countries that have the least resources are those that store the most

A i ifi i l i & i bili d i h N h

• A significant potential in storage & resources remains un-mobilized in the North

Figures used for calculation :

* In rough numbers

• France Withdrauwals from Garonne river upstream of Dordogne confluence : 3% ( 440 million withdrawn from 14 billion m3 runoff )
• France Storage Adour 2,5%; Charente : 2,1% . Upper Adour : storage 10 mm / yr; runoff : 400 mm/yr over 4100 km2. Upper Charente : storage 2,1%; runoff 250

mm/yr over 3750 km2

• Ebro : storage 70 mm/yr; runoff : 140mm/yr over 85550 km2. Runoff 14 billion m3
• Oum Er Rbia : storage 160 mm/yr; runoff : 80 mm/yr over 3000 km2. Withdrawals 2 billion m3 from runoff 2,5 billion m3

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Irrigated systems in danger :

1/ Water overexploitation

U t i bl t d ti i d

1/ Water overexploitation : Unsustainable water production indexes

Unsustainable exploitation: 14 to 16 km3/yr, including SY (4,4 à 6,4), LY (3,6), DZ (1,8), ES (1,1) Water demand (km3) ‘Unsustainable’ water (%) Period 2000-2005 43

Unsustainable water = Overexploitation + Unrenewable exploitation

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

• 2. Increased and uneven competition, widening inequalities

– cities / tourism / agriculture – large agricultural investors / rural communities ‘Water scarcity induces competition for water that can lead to conflicts In the Water scarcity induces competition for water that can lead to conflicts. In the absence of clear and well-established rules, power plays an excessive role, leading to inequitable allocation. In semi arid regions an increasing number of rural poor now see their In semi-arid regions, an increasing number of rural poor now see their entitlement and access to water as their primary cause for concern.’

Alexander Müller, Assistant Director Général FAO; in CGAAER 2012

• 3. Salinization
• Turkey; 33% irrigated lands; 1.5 million ha lost

E 35% l d ff d (1 21 illi h )

• Egypt: 35% lands affected (1.21 million ha)
• Mediterranean Europe: 1 million ha affected (Spain : 3.5%)
• 4. Siltation of reservoirs
• Tunisia : - 1,6%/year
• Mediterranean areas in MA and DZ :

2 à 3%/year

• Mediterranean areas in MA and DZ : - 2 à - 3%/year

Source : Plan Bleu 2005 (diverses sources nationales)

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Blue Water: baseline scenario for 2025

Baseline 2025 scenario of Blue Plan (national planning documents) South & East: strong growth South & East: strong growth

• water demand : + 58 km3
• reuse, overexploitation and desalinization

N th d d ithd l North : reduced withdrawals

MED S & E N

Source : Blue Plan from national planning documents; IME/Margat 2012

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Blue Water: baseline scenario for 2025

ratio of overall water demand vs total renewable and exploitable water resources

2010

S & E MED N

2025

N

Consequences :

• Increasing overexploitation South & East
• Low exploitation North

46

• a sustainable scenario???

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

An alternative: managing water demand (WDM) more productivity and income per m3 of water

• Blue Plan scénario: saving 34 km3 possible by 2025 in the South and
• Blue Plan scénario: saving 34 km3 possible by 2025 in the South and

East (Mediterranean watersheds) by simply reducing losses

Part of irrigated lands with water saving equipment Still possible room for improvement !

47

Source : Blue Plan 2012

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Water Demand Management (WDM) : the crucial role of agricultural policies g p

Water demand and value added for agricultural production in Tunisia

Tunisia

a combination of tools

• Micro-Irrigation: 80%

(20% en 1990)

• Efficiency : + 20%

VA irrigated production VA agricultural production

y => Provides more water for cities (social peace) and for tourism (currency)

p Water withdrawals

Morocco

Micro-irigation (thousand ha)

Source : Hamdane

But WDM is still not a priority in many countries scarce with resources, where pricing is still a taboo.

it is not a panacea (differences between territories)! ... it is not a panacea (differences between territories)!

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Gains also possible by reducing losses (eau, food) f fi ld f k from field to fork

Food losses, food waste MENA, Europe…

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

An alternative scenario: a new territorial governance g

Local and participatory governance: ASA AUEA Local and participatory governance: ASA, AUEA…. Planning for sustainable agriculture. Combine supply + WDM g g pp y

• PRAD Languedoc Roussillon : WDM + Aqua-Domitia + création 50 retenues/an
• The Beauce aquifer: WDM by irrigation users associations + volumetric

management with meters + individual quotas management with meters + individual quotas

• The Souss Massa aquifer : multi-stakeholder convention, farmer commitments?

supply (transfers, desalination), WDM (efficiency, control ..)

B tt bili ti Better resource mobilization

• Storage: groundwater and surface
• Reuse

Reuse

• Désalinization : 11 à 14 km3/year in 2025 (eg 3 to 4% of the comprehensive

demand in blue water). Of interest in dry years

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

3.3 Rainfed: risks of deadlocks and alternatives

Systems in danger : Systems in danger :

Droughts

• Syria : about 300 000 farmers affected since

2006 compelled to migrate M GDP l t 5 i t

E i

• Maroc : GDP losses up to 5 points

Erosion

• Turkey : 73%, 57 million ha (hydrical erosion)
• Tunisia : 21% lands (3.5 million ha), annual losses : 37.000 ha, of which 13.000 ha

irreversibly (World : 1,1 bilion ha ; yield drops : - 27%)

Dé tifi ti Désertification (arid and dry zones)

• PSEM: 80% lands (84% rangelands, 74% rainfed crops)
• Syria : 3.2 million ha

Source Plan Bleu 2005 (diverses sources nationales)

• Europe : 63% dry zones (Spain, Southern Italy, Greece ..)

(World : 70% lands in dry zones ; 1.5 billion people affected)

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

An alternative scenario : écological intensification / conservation farming / « terroirs » territorial approaches conservation farming / « terroirs » territorial approaches

Local knwledges :

Jessours in Tunisia : valorization

Douar de Tamzejjoute

Agro-forestal Douar in Morocco

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

« Conservation » agriculture

Direct seeding Wheat

• World : 105 million ha in direct seeding (Brésil : 50%); -3/4 erosion, + 10 mm usable water

reserve every 10 years

(semi-arid zone Morocco)

6500 ha in 2013

• France : 1/3 farmland no-tillage
• Yields : + 30 à 40%
• Water efficiency: + 60%

É

• Énergy : - 70%
• Carbon sequestration : 1 to 4

tons CO2/ha tons CO2/ha

• Organic matter + 3 à 14%

53

Source INRA Morocco

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

« Conservation » agriculture

3 principles :

• Réduction or no tillage

g

• Permanent cover
• Crop rotation

p

Direct seeding :

4,5 tons/ha at Settat (semi- arid zone) e in 2009

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Soil structure Soil structure in conventional farming in direct seeding

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

« terroirs » approach « terroirs » approach agro-écology

Réhabilitation zone Brickcha Farm at Shoul in 2005 (up) and 2012 (bottom) Participatory approach

Photos : Zineb Benrhamoune Idrissi

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

4/ CONCLUSION : ISSUES for the FUTURE

Trends require a paradigm shift / new solutions / Euro- Mediterranean excellence Mediterranean excellence Would the crisis be an opportunity for progress? How can we better

1 S / / h t d ( t bl d ) t 1. Secure / manage / enhance ecosystems and resources (water blue and green) to produce better and + (food, income, sustainability, equity) and everywhere, and reduce losses , 2. Secure acces to food (vulnerables households), 3. Optimize use of blue, green and virtual water / Securiser les supplies / Cooperate?

What visions, policies, institutions What « process » from local to national and regional ? What « process » from local to national and regional ?

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• G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013