[PPT] - The impact of COVID-19 on migration globally and in Canada Dan PowerPoint Presentation

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The impact of COVID-19 on migration globally and in Canada

Dan Hiebert OCASI November 20, 2020

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Agenda

Covid as a triple-crisis
Canada’s / IRCC’s response to Covid
Data update … what’s happening?
And…what next? … the 2021-23 levels plan
Consequences?
Note that nearly everything today will be about Canada but I’m happy

to deal with global issues in the discussion

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The Covid triple crisis

Health
Economic
Equity / Humanitarian
Groups already suffering marginalization, suffer more during a pandemic,

while groups already privileged, suffer less

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Covid as a health crisis

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COVID as an economic crisis

Previous recessions (1980s, 1990s, 2000s)
Peaks of monthly unemployment rate:

1983 (13.1%); 1994 (12.1%); 2010 (8.7%)

Time to recover to pre-recession unemployment rate: 6, 6 and 8 years
Of all ‘temporary’ lay-offs, 45% were permanent job losses
2020 COVID situation
Peak unemployment rate:

13.7% in May (Oct: 8.9%)

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Note

Canada has provided more economic stimulus than most other

countries

Therefore, the Canadian

economy will be more exposed to shocks when fiscal stimulus ends

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COVID as an economic crisis

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

Unemployment rate by immigration status, Canada, monthly, 2020

Total population Landed immigrants Born in Canada

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

Unemployment rate by immigration status, Canada, monthly, 2020

Total population Immigrants, landed 5 or less years earlier Immigrants, landed more than 5 to 10 years earlier Immigrants, landed more than 10 years earlier Born in Canada

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

Unemployment among landed immigrants, 25-54 years old, by sex, Canada, monthly, 2020

Both sexes 25 to 54 years Males 25 to 54 years Females 25 to 54 years

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

Unemployment among landed immigrants by region of origin, Canada, monthly, 2020

Total population North America Latin America Europe Africa Asia

Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, October, 2020: “…visible minorities continued to have a higher unemployment rate in October (11.7% combined) than Canadians who were not Indigenous and not visible minority (6.7%).” …That is 75% higher!

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Covid as an equity and humanitarian crisis

Humanitarian side
Vast numbers of stranded labour migrants
Food security issues among refugees
Forcing returns in some cases (e.g., Venezuela)
Global asylum system
Crisis of immobility
168 countries have closed borders
70 countries have suspended asylum

determination systems

Many examples of refoulement

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The Covid triple crisis

Things to worry about…
The disease itself, plus medical complications (e.g., mental health)
The economic ‘hangover’ of unemployment and colossal debt
Increased inequality and lingering humanitarian issues

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What happens to Canadian migration and immigration during a crisis?

Recent history
What we know so far about the Covid era

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Canadian responses to crisis

Permanent immigration
1980s recession
Significant drop in immigration targets (< 100,000 / year)
1990s recession
Smaller drop in immigration targets (~ 200,000 / year)
2000s recession
No drop in targets
Temporary migration
Largely unaffected by these recessions

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Consequences for immigrants arriving in previous recessions

Immigrants and members of racialized groups face the most severe

challenges in the labour market

Sectors with high immigrant participation tend to be the hardest hit
Arriving newcomers face a double challenge (newcomer, racialized)
Triple challenge for women
These disadvantages produced ‘scarring effects’ that endured for years
The larger the incoming cohort, the larger these impacts
Why? Because immigrants mainly compete against other immigrants for jobs
HOWEVER … the demographic situation has changed and these impacts

might not be as bad in the 2020s…

And the recovery could be quicker

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IRCC and levels during Covid

Context: unique situation
Recession plus severe limits to processing, plus border closure
‘Covid productivity tax’ … majority of staff still working from home
Problems with in-person and paper elements of applications (e.g., medical tests)
Partial fixes through mass-digitization of records and digital meetings
New practice: ‘virtual landings’
Planned level of immigration for 2020: 341,000
Given shortfalls since March, the latest expectation is approx. 180,000
I.e., close to half, with ~ 150,000 missing
Given the state of the labour market, this might be a good thing
This is not due to a conscious choice, but to circumstances IRCC could not control

(i.e., not like the 1980s)

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IRCC and levels during Covid

Who is being admitted?
People already in Canada (‘inland immigration’)
TR->PR transitions are relatively straightforward as they don’t involve a border crossing
PNP, CEC, and some through family reunification and other categories
IRB has resumed in-person hearings
People who received a Letter of Invitation prior to March 18
They have been granted the right to land
Many face deadlines and lapsed permission
Temporary residents
Priority is on individuals deemed essential
Few landings outside these categories
But the admission process is up and running again
Delays between admission and landing

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Summary of admissions and administrative data

Temporary residents
Permanent residents
TR-PR transitions
Provincial scale

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Temporary resident admissions

Study
Work
Asylum
Also note website data

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Canada, Study permits, by world region, monthly, 2018-2020

Africa Americas West Asia Central Asia South Asia East Asia Southeast Asia Europe Oceania

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Study visa admissions, April – September, 2019 vs 2020

2019 2020

Total 272,130 Total 172,100

India 85,940 India 52,500 PR China 63,865 PR China 47,405 France 11,570 Vietnam 7,135 S Korea 10,970 S Korea 6,890 Vietnam 8,120 France 4,590 Iran 6,345 Iran 4,460 Brazil 6,250 Nigeria 4,080 USA 5,445 Brazil 3,435 Nigeria 5,120 USA 2,855 Japan 4,615 Philippines 2,355 Mexico 4,465 Bangladesh 2,165 Philippines 3,710 Mexico 2,060 Bangladesh 3,235 Japan 1,930 Colombia 2,600 Hong Kong 1,615 Taiwan 2,560 Colombia 1,455

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Canada, Temporary Labour Migrants, Monthly Admissions, 2018-2020

TFW, Caregivers TFW, Agricultural TFW, Other IMP, Agreements IMP, Canadian Interests IMP, Not stated

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Labour and Study Temporary Migration Before and During Covid 2019 Apr-Aug 2020 Apr-Aug Index 2020 TFW, Caregivers 3,218 1,031 32.0 TFW, Agricultural 36,989 36,405 98.4 TFW, Other 16,443 9,573 58.2 IMP, Agreements 11,845 5,635 47.6 IMP, Canadian Interests 100,855 61,035 60.5 IMP, Not stated 23,070 3,100 13.4 Study permits 228,430 118,240 51.8

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Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

Canada asylum claims, total, and, for the 25 top source countries, by claim type, monthly, 2019-20 Airport Border Inland Total

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2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan PR China Turkey Haiti USA DR Congo Venezuela Egypt Sri Lanka DR Sudan Bangladesh Burundi Angola Rwanda Algeria Stateless Uganda Ethiopia Romania Kenya Other countries

Total asylum claims, top 25 countries, 2019 vs 2020 (to September)

2020 2019

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Permanent residents

Admissions by category
Source countries
TR->PR transitions

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Immigrant Admissions, by Major Category, Canada, Monthly, 2018-2020

CEC/FSW/FST PNP Other econ Family Refugee

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Immigration by Major Category, Canada, Pre-Covid vs, During Covid

Average Index values (to Average before Covid)

Jan 18 - Feb 20

Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20Apr-Sep

CEC/FSW/FST

8,746 73.0 21.2 37.2 108.4 58.4 43.3 36.9 50.9 PNP 5,420 63.6 24.0 54.9 91.6 56.5 36.3 74.1 56.2 Other econ 1,739 37.5 2.4 22.3 30.6 32.7 24.4 17.7 21.7 Family 7,293 77.4 10.2 32.5 39.4 45.1 48.3 58.5 39.0 Refugee 3,859 57.2 4.4 37.1 28.3 37.9 36.4 74.3 36.4 Total 27,057 67.8 15.2 38.5 70.0 49.9 41.1 54.3 44.8

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Canada, Permanent Resident Admissions, by Origin (%), Monthly, 2018-2020

Africa Americas W Asia C Asia S Asia E Asia SE Asia W Europe N Europe E Europe S Europe Oceania

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Permanent resident arrivals, top 20 source countries, April-September, 2019 vs 2020

2019 2020 India 50,855 India 18,795 PR China 17,185 PR China 6,490 Philippines 16,030 Philippines 3,895 Nigeria 7,670 United States of America 2,740 Syria 6,265 Pakistan 2,570 United States of America 6,225 Nigeria 2,395 Pakistan 6,130 Iran 1,795 Eritrea 3,690 France 1,725 Iran 3,630 United Kingdom 1,625 Korea, Republic of 3,540 Brazil 1,570 United Kingdom 3,235 Morocco 1,380 Brazil 3,210 Korea, Republic of 1,375 Iraq 2,645 Algeria 1,340 France 2,560 Syria 1,275 Vietnam 2,385 Mexico 1,100 Egypt 2,220 Vietnam 920 Jamaica 2,150 Egypt 910 Afghanistan 2,035 Turkey 800 Bangladesh 1,990 Jamaica 790 Algeria 1,945 Ukraine 730 Top 20 145,595 54,220 Total 197,408 74,107

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Refugee Admissions, by Major Type, Canada, 2018-2020

Resettled refugees Protected persons in Canada

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TR to PR transitions

Immigration based on previous TR visa decisions
…i.e., ‘inland immigration’

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* Includes multiple counting

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Temporary Resident -> Permanent Resident Transitions, Monthly, 2018-2020

International Mobility Program Temporary Foreign Worker Permit Study Permit Post-Graduate Work Permit Percent with Permits*

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The provincial scale

Ontario in context
Permanent residents admitted to Ontario
Refugees admitted to Ontario

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2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

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Permanent Resident Admissions, by Province, monthly, 2015-2020

Quebec Ontario Alberta British Columbia

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PR admissions by major category, Ontario, monthly, 2018-2020

Economic Family Refugee

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PR Economic admissions, by sub-category, Ontario, monthly, 2018-2020

Canadian Experience Caregiver Skilled Trade Skilled Worker Business Provincial Nominee Program

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PR Refugee admissions, by sub-category, Ontario, monthly, 2018-2020

Blended Sponsorship Refugee Government-Assisted Refugee Privately Sponsored Refugee Protected Person in Canada

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New levels plan

Background realities
Humanitarian needs for global migration are higher than ever
Global ‘immobility crisis’
Canada’s demographic situation is not changing (low fertility)
Therefore, Canada will return to high immigration of both economic and

humanitarian types … not ‘if’ but ‘when’…

New levels plan
This will happen immediately (401,000 in 2021 and then more)
How can this be achieved?
Consequences?

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Canadian permanent t immigrati tion, , 2015-2023 2023

2015-20: actual (2020: January-August only) 2021-23: projected

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Economic Family Refugees Other / H&C

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Economic Family Refugees Other / H&C

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Achieving Canada’s targets

Positive factors
IRCC is efficient and normally meets targets
Global interest in Canada is very high
General public views and employers are favourable (though mixed)
Already, many approval letters dispatched
But … in the short term …
Many borders will still be closed for much (most?) of 2021
Fragility of global transportation system (many airlines will fail)
Potential feedback if newcomers fail to find work

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Achieving Canada’s targets

Potential tools
Reach out to potential ‘inland immigrants’ (especially in 2021)
Students, TFW/IMPs, asylum seekers, amnesty for irregular migrants?
Ease border restrictions
Huge efforts under way, globally, in ‘health proofing’ borders
New term…’hygiene theatre’
After borders reopen
May need to lower CRS score for the Express Entry system, temporarily
In the long run, numbers will rise as the economy rebounds

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Consequences

Sometime in 2021, fiscal stimulus is likely to end and we will see the

real rate of unemployment (estimate… 1.5 million)

2021 plan would add >250,000 working-age adults to the labour force
But some would already be in Canada and have a job
Integration issues will become critical
Labour market access
Credentialization
Entrepreneurship
Major challenge for the support sector
Important question about the possibility of fiscal restraint

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Possible agenda for positive change

Expand eligibility for settlement services in light of increased TR->PR

transitions

Expand ‘guardian angels’ program to include more types of asylum

seekers

E.g., anyone who has work
Regularization of undocumented residents