The Fulbright Scholar Program at UNL: Bioenergy systems in Brazil: challenges and future perspectives Prof. Weber A. Neves do Amaral, PhD ESALQ – USP September 9, 2011 1
Objetives of this short Fulbright Scholar Program Mid term: • Understand the key drivers of agriculture innovation – using a comparative approach – USA and BR To what extend these innovations in the feedstock production and conversion • technologies are towards or contribute to sustainability • What constraints their adoption or deployment? Long term: • Contribute to a long term research agenda between these countries and organizations, addressing the findings and gaps of the mid term goals assessment 2
UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO 7 Campi
UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO 70k students and ca. 7,2k faculty 1 st place in Brazil 1 st place in Latin America 94 th place in the world* Armando Sales Oliveira Campus – 19 schools 5 schools in metropolitan São Paulo
GLOBAL BIOENERGY Major international drivers are pushing for a very favorable global bioenergy markets…. But some fundamental questions remain to be answered • The total fuels market is very large and growing at 3-4% per year • Biofuels are ca. 3.0% of total consumption of gasoline and diesel. Conservative projections estimate at least 5.0-7,0% by 2020. • The profitability of ethanol is reinforced by increasing prices of fossil fuels; current oil reserves are reducing and new ones are being discovered at higher cost sites (e.g. deep waters, tar sands, etc) • Environmental concerns are also pushing demand for biofuels (e.g.: GHG) • US is producing ethanol from corn, while ethanol from sugar cane is made in BR. • Biodiesel economic feasibility yet to be proven at current stage of development without tax incentives and considering projected oil prices. • But there are new developments towards value added bioproducts, using the biorefineries as a business framework • Increase demand for food, fuel, feed will demand more from less and more efficient and sustainable production systems • August 17, 2011 the US-Brazil Strategic Energy Dialogue was launched 5
Oil dependent economies and global economy recover Yesterday President Obama said that building the the next generation of manufacturing , including advanced biofuels , is “how America can be number one again”. How? Which feedstock? Where? How much? Which winning technologies?
INTRODUCTION Biofuels: beyond agriculture production – a system dynamics complex of multiple interactions + + + Gasoline/Dies - Global Climate GHGs Oil reserves el awareness change - Querosene Hydro + + Nuclea Environment - + r al + taxes & Energy Energy Wind policies - supply Land use demand Native + patterns + vegetation + Hydrogen - and - + forests + Trends in + + consumption - + Quality of Ethanol + life & biodiesel Food and + + livelihood + s Jobs + Economic + growth Food safety Quality of Roles and jobs functions of government, + private sector and NGOs Biodiversity Diversification 10
M Sustainability: Sustainability: Economic, energy and climatic policies integrated countries without clear targets - GHG Market: higher growth rates Market: higher growth rate with strong pressure on the resources Diversification of the energy matrix Higher oil prices S Business as usual scenario Sustainability: social awareness and targets Sustainability: A fragmented agenda; Green investments not viable Market: effective policies, but not sufficient Market: same growth rate:, Fiscal policies still not business friendly market regulations driven by government Failure of a common international agenda:
Future challenges • Land use and availability • Environmental framewokrs and biodiversity conservation • IP rights
Land availability: A) Land use changes Region dependent Stringency of environmental frameworks and levels of compliance B) Optimization of current land use
Yield and productivity potential - challenges • Market size • Levels of investment in applied research • Crop dependent – learning curve and new agricultural frontiers • Level of genetic improvement and the role of biotechnology Ex: application of synthetic biology for novel crops and traits ca. 10 years for full deployment An issue of concern: How to leverage existing crop productivity? Sugar cane – 88 ton/ha – (45 - 120 ton/ha) Eucalyptus – 44 m3/ha/year – (27 – 110 m3/ha/year) How? Precision farming and logistics New tools for monitoring productivity: nutrient efficiency and water
How to reconcile feedstock production and conservation strategies? Environmemtal framework and the Brazilian Forest Code Several certification schemes being discussed for bioenergy Eucalyptus plantation Atlantic forest VERACEL Cia
Environmentally friendly protocol of the sugarcane industry : the Green Protocol of the Secretary of Environment – São Paulo State - 1/2 One of the main targets of this protocol is related with the anticipation of sugar cane burning regime from 2017 to 2014 in flat areas, and from 2031 to 2017 in slope areas* Mecanized areas Non-mecanized areas % of harvested sugarcane without burn * Are considered sloping areas, when the inclinaiton is more than 12% Source: Única 2
Sugarcane zoning and revision of the Forestry Code (1965) The main resolutions and suitable areas for planting sugarcane are shown below: • Protect the areas with original native vegetation and the prohibition of the planting in the Amazonia, Pantanal e Bacia do Alto Paraguai biomes; • Sugarcane planting in areas where the use of water is minimum as possible (rain feed primarily); • A draft law project to recommend the growth of the planting based in the food safety without harming food production; • Look for new places to produce sugarcane, using pasture areas or those occupied by cattle raising. Subtitles: -Suitable areas - Amazonia, Pantanal and Bacia do Alto Paraguai biomas Source: EMBRAPA 2
Environmental services Ecological tax (ICMS ecologico and Pro-ambiente) REDD and market instruments Alianca Brasileira para Mudancas Climaticas – several stakeholders Pasture Degraded Area of Permanent Eucalypt Preservation (APP) Restored APP
IP rights – another issue of concern ... Evolution of productivity of Brazilian ethanol: • Continuous investment in R&D – mainly in the public domain x • situation of IP rights to secure long term investments in BR – • For business the levels of protection are low… 25
Examples from Brazil • Sugar cane ethanol • Biodiesel • Innovation
Location of mills and sugarcane production Equator MA PA 3-2 1-0.6 NE 41-56 TO BA 1-0,2 MT 5-6 12-13 GO 23-19 MG ES MS 37-32 SP 21-12 6-4 189-266 Capricornia RJ PR 11-7 31-35 Nr mills – M ton New frontier RS 2-1 Frontier Traditional Source: AGRIANUAL / IDEA 27
Sugar cane value chain: where are the opportunities for bio-products? 7 M ha 400 mills & distilleries Harvest 72 thousand growers (Operation & projects) 400 M tons SUGAR ETHANOL BAGASSE 30 million tons 22 billion liters Bioplastic Ethanol Derived Carbon Food credits Lysine Pharmacy 28
BRAZIL BIOFUELS Total production of sugar cane increased significantly with the deployment of the ethanol vehicles The evolution of the Brazilian ethanol industry – M tons of processed sugar cane Flex fuel car sector boom Release the prices Stagnation of the sector of ethanol Change the mix of production Last Strategical from ethanol to sugar Ethanol car plan to the increase of sector: demand Próalcool 29 Source: Datagro
BRAZIL BIOFUELS Flex fuel cars account for more than 80% of total cars produced in Brazil Evolution of light vehicles production and Total Brazilian Fleet – „000 vehicles Brazilian Fleet (2007) 21,425 Gasoline 14,797 80 % FFV 2,752 Ethanol 1,446 CNG 1,385 Diesel 1,045 30 Source: ANFAVEA; VPB estimates
GLOBAL BIOFUELS Sugar cane is an important feedstock to produce ethanol – first and advanced generations Energy balance of ethanol production from different feed stocks 12 Energy out put input ratio 10 8 6 4 2 0 Sugarcane Subar beet Wheat straw Corn Wood Production /ha Quantity of Energy Output/ Raw material (kg) Ethanol /ha Energy Input • 8.3 • Sugar Cane • 85.000 • 7.080 liter 31 • 1.3 - 1.8 • Corn • 10.000 • 4.000 liter Source: Petrobr á s, Coehlo/Cenbio
Challenges Today, only 1/3 of the energy content of the sugarcane plant is used to produce ethanol. 2 nd generation biofuels (hydrolysis and fermentation) might cover this gap, but with what costs? Energy cane 1 ton of sugar cane stem Energy (MJ) 2005 2015 2025 • 150kg of sugar 2500 l/tc l/ha l/tc l/ha l/tc l/ha Technology • 135 kg stem fibers (bs) 2400 Conventional 85 6.000 100 8.200 109 10.400 • 140 kg leaves fibers (bs) 2500 Hydrolysis - - 14 1.100 37 3.500 Total 7400 (1.25 Total 85 6.000 114 9.300 146 13.900 boe) 32 Note: 2 nd generation is equivalent to cellulosic Source:Unicamp, Canavialis
Distribution of bioenergy projects in Brazil – for electricity generation 33 Fonte: ANEEL
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