The Fulbright Scholar Program at UNL: Bioenergy systems in Brazil: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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September 9, 2011

• Prof. Weber A. Neves do Amaral, PhD

ESALQ – USP

The Fulbright Scholar Program at UNL:

Bioenergy systems in Brazil: challenges and future perspectives

Objetives of this short Fulbright Scholar Program

Mid term:

• Understand the key drivers of agriculture innovation – using a comparative

approach – USA and BR

• To what extend these innovations in the feedstock production and conversion

technologies are towards or contribute to sustainability

• What constraints their adoption or deployment?

Long term:

• Contribute to a long term research agenda between these countries and
• rganizations, addressing the findings and gaps of the mid term goals

assessment

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UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO 7 Campi

UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO

Armando Sales Oliveira Campus – 19 schools 5 schools in metropolitan São Paulo 1st place in Latin America 70k students and ca. 7,2k faculty 1st place in Brazil 94th place in the world*

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• The total fuels market is very large and growing at 3-4% per year
• Biofuels are ca. 3.0% of total consumption of gasoline and diesel. Conservative

projections estimate at least 5.0-7,0% by 2020.

• The profitability of ethanol is reinforced by increasing prices of fossil fuels; current oil

reserves are reducing and new ones are being discovered at higher cost sites (e.g. deep waters, tar sands, etc)

• Environmental concerns are also pushing demand for biofuels (e.g.: GHG)
• US is producing ethanol from corn, while ethanol from sugar cane is made in BR.
• Biodiesel economic feasibility yet to be proven at current stage of development without

tax incentives and considering projected oil prices.

• But there are new developments towards value added bioproducts, using the

biorefineries as a business framework

• Increase demand for food, fuel, feed will demand more from less and more efficient and

sustainable production systems

• August 17, 2011 the US-Brazil Strategic Energy Dialogue was launched

GLOBAL BIOENERGY

Major international drivers are pushing for a very favorable global bioenergy markets…. But some fundamental questions remain to be answered

Yesterday President Obama said that building the the next generation of manufacturing, including advanced biofuels, is “how America can be number

• ne again”.

How? Which feedstock? Where? How much? Which winning technologies?

Oil dependent economies and global economy recover

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Roles and functions

• f government,

private sector and NGOs Gasoline/Dies el Querosene Food Ethanol & biodiesel Jobs Wind Energy demand GHGs Nuclea r Oil reserves Economic growth

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• Hydro

Hydrogen Trends in consumption Global awareness Environment al taxes & policies Energy supply Land use patterns Native vegetation and forests Quality of jobs Diversification Biodiversity Climate change Food safety Quality of life and livelihood s

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• Biofuels: beyond agriculture production –

a system dynamics complex of multiple interactions

INTRODUCTION

Sustainability: Economic, energy and climatic policies integrated Sustainability: social awareness and targets Sustainability: A fragmented agenda; Green investments not viable

Business as usual scenario

Sustainability: countries without clear targets - GHG Market: effective policies, but not sufficient Fiscal policies still not business friendly Market: higher growth rate with strong pressure

• n the resources

Higher oil prices Market: higher growth rates Diversification of the energy matrix Market: same growth rate:, market regulations driven by government Failure of a common international agenda:

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Future challenges

• Land use and availability
• Environmental framewokrs and

biodiversity conservation

• IP rights

Land availability: A) Land use changes Region dependent Stringency of environmental frameworks and levels of compliance B) Optimization of current land use

Yield and productivity potential - challenges

• Market size
• Levels of investment in applied research
• Crop dependent – learning curve and new agricultural frontiers
• Level of genetic improvement and the role of biotechnology

Ex: application of synthetic biology for novel crops and traits

• ca. 10 years for full deployment

An issue of concern: How to leverage existing crop productivity? Sugar cane – 88 ton/ha – (45 - 120 ton/ha) Eucalyptus – 44 m3/ha/year – (27 – 110 m3/ha/year) How? Precision farming and logistics New tools for monitoring productivity: nutrient efficiency and water

VERACEL Cia

How to reconcile feedstock production and conservation strategies? Environmemtal framework and the Brazilian Forest Code Several certification schemes being discussed for bioenergy

Eucalyptus plantation Atlantic forest

One of the main targets of this protocol is related with the anticipation of sugar cane burning regime from 2017 to 2014 in flat areas, and from 2031 to 2017 in slope areas*

* Are considered sloping areas, when the inclinaiton is more than 12% Source: Única

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Mecanized areas Non-mecanized areas % of harvested sugarcane without burn

Environmentally friendly protocol of the sugarcane industry : the Green Protocol of the Secretary of Environment – São Paulo State - 1/2

The main resolutions and suitable areas for planting sugarcane are shown below:

• Protect the areas with original native vegetation

and the prohibition of the planting in the Amazonia, Pantanal e Bacia do Alto Paraguai biomes;

• Sugarcane planting in areas where the use of

water is minimum as possible (rain feed primarily);

• A draft law project to recommend the growth of the planting

based in the food safety without harming food production;

• Look for new places to produce sugarcane, using

pasture areas or those occupied by cattle raising.

Source: EMBRAPA

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Sugarcane zoning and revision of the Forestry Code (1965)

Subtitles:

• Suitable areas
• Amazonia, Pantanal

and Bacia do Alto Paraguai biomas

Pasture Degraded Area of Permanent Preservation (APP) Eucalypt Restored APP

Environmental services Ecological tax (ICMS ecologico and Pro-ambiente) REDD and market instruments Alianca Brasileira para Mudancas Climaticas – several stakeholders

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...

Evolution of productivity of Brazilian ethanol:

• Continuous investment in R&D – mainly in the public domain x
• situation of IP rights to secure long term investments in BR –
• For business the levels of protection are low…

IP rights – another issue of concern

Examples from Brazil

• Sugar cane ethanol
• Biodiesel
• Innovation

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Traditional Frontier New frontier

PA 1-0.6

Capricornia Equator

Location of mills and sugarcane production

MA 3-2 TO 1-0,2 MT 12-13 NE 41-56 BA 5-6 SP 189-266 GO 23-19 MS 21-12 PR 31-35 RJ 11-7 MG 37-32 ES 6-4 RS 2-1 Nr mills – M ton

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Carbon credits

7 M ha 72 thousand growers 400 mills & distilleries (Operation & projects) Harvest 400 M tons ETHANOL

22 billion liters

SUGAR

30 million tons

BAGASSE

Bioplastic Ethanol Food Pharmacy

Lysine

Derived

Sugar cane value chain: where are the opportunities for bio-products?

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Total production of sugar cane increased significantly with the deployment of the ethanol vehicles

The evolution of the Brazilian ethanol industry – M tons of processed sugar cane

Source: Datagro

Last Strategical plan to the sector: Próalcool Ethanol car increase of demand Stagnation of the sector Change the mix of production from ethanol to sugar Release the prices

• f ethanol

Flex fuel car sector boom

BRAZIL BIOFUELS

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Evolution of light vehicles production and Total Brazilian Fleet – „000 vehicles

Source: ANFAVEA; VPB estimates

Gasoline FFV Ethanol CNG Diesel

1,045 1,385 1,446 2,752 14,797 21,425

BRAZIL BIOFUELS

Flex fuel cars account for more than 80% of total cars produced in Brazil

80 %

Brazilian Fleet (2007)

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Energy balance of ethanol production from different feed stocks

Sugar cane is an important feedstock to produce ethanol – first and advanced generations

Source: Petrobrás, Coehlo/Cenbio

GLOBAL BIOFUELS Energy out put input ratio

Raw material Production /ha (kg) Quantity of Ethanol /ha Energy Output/ Energy Input

• Sugar Cane
• Corn
• 85.000
• 10.000
• 7.080 liter
• 4.000 liter
• 8.3
• 1.3 - 1.8

2 4 6 8 10 12 Sugarcane Subar beet Wheat straw Corn Wood

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Energy cane

Note: 2nd generation is equivalent to cellulosic Source:Unicamp, Canavialis

Challenges

Today, only 1/3 of the energy content of the sugarcane plant is used to produce ethanol. 2nd generation biofuels (hydrolysis and fermentation) might cover this gap, but with what costs?

1 ton of sugar cane stem Energy (MJ)

• 150kg of sugar
• 135 kg stem fibers (bs)
• 140 kg leaves fibers (bs)

Total 2500 2400 2500 7400 (1.25 boe) Technology Conventional Hydrolysis Total 2005 2015 2025 l/tc 85

• 85

l/ha 6.000

• 6.000

l/tc 100 14 114 l/ha 8.200 1.100 9.300 l/tc 109 37 146 l/ha 10.400 3.500 13.900

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Distribution of bioenergy projects in Brazil – for electricity generation

Fonte: ANEEL

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Sugarcane bagasse complements the hydro-electricity generation in the winter

Fonte: UNICA – Etanol e bioeletricidade

Sugarcane and its contribution to the energy matrix/month - 2008

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Energia Natural Novas Hidrelétricas Biomassa

ITAIPU = Sugarcane bagasse in 2015/16 2008: 94,5 TW/H/YEAR

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Feedstock diversity

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Is biodiesel a social or an energy program? 80% soybean dependent Over the targets – 4% The role of Petrobras – Brazil Oil Company

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Assessment of new feedstocks and technologies – critical issues associated with the economics...

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Biofuels initiatives in Brazil cover many 1st and 2nd Gen pathways for gasoline substitutes.... The Amyris case and Braskem investments

Raw Material Preparation Process Feedstock Conversion Process I Conversion Process II Biofuel Product

Separation into cellulose, hemicelullose and lignin components Cellulosic and hemicellulosic material (crops, waste) Cellulose conversion to sugar via saccharfication (hydrolysis); thermal, chemical and biological processes applied Special fermentation for 5-6 carbon sugars produced by saccharification Cellulosic Ethanol Synthetic Biology Fuel Substitutes Syn- gasoline

Hydrogen

Gasification of raw material through heat Syngas (e.g., CH4, CO, CO2, N, H) Fisher-Tropsch Process

Water Gas Shift & Separation

Catalysed Synthesis BioButanol Ethanol Distillation and

• evtl. removal of

water Fermentation to ethanol, using yeast &

• ther

microbes Conversion to 6-C-sugar (high- temperat. enzyme) 6-carbon sugar Starchy crop parts (kernels) Sugar crops, e.g.

• beet
• cane

Grain crops,e.g.

• wheat
• corn

Sugar extraction Harvesting starch, separating, cleaning, milling Genetically engineered microbes produce fuel product via metabolic pathways N/A Methanol Fermentation using A.B.E Process Energy Crops Agricultural Waste Forest Residues Municipal Waste (MSW) Separation into cellulose, hemicelullose and lignin components Cellulosic and hemicellulosic material (crops, waste)

1st Generation 2nd Generation Key:

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Potential feedstocks for biorefineries

Other feedstocks for advances biofuels

Fonte: McMillan, 1994; Wood for Alcohol Fuels, 2002; Saad, 2005; IBGE; CONAB; SBS

6,600 11,549 22,933 3,919 4,000 2,000 115,000 72,600 64,029 80,747 2,937 94,600 38,700 460,000 9 a 13 5 a 8 3 a 4 4 a 6 22 a 24 18 a 20 3 a 5 Area [000 ha] Source of feedstock Production [000 t/year] Produtivity [t/ha.year] Proprieties (%)

lignin celullose hemicelullose

Potential 20 15 15 a 25 23 a 35 20 28 10 a 30 41 30 a 45 30 a 40 36 a 40 45 42 25 a 40 25 50 a 35 25 a 35

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27 35 a 50 High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Low 6,600 72,600 9 a 13 26 28 37 High

Cane Straw Bagasse Corn stover Soybean stover Rice stover Eucalyptus residues Pine residues Pastures

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Fund suppliers Feedstock/ Conversion Suppliers 2nd Generation Biofuels

• Research Institutes
• Universities

UFPE

Brazil is establishing a Cellulosic Ethanol cluster with a significant number of players...

NON-EXHAUSTIVE

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• 4. PROJETO URBANÍSTICO

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• 4. PROJETO URBANÍSTICO

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• 4. PROJETO URBANÍSTICO

Proposal Market Entry Almirall 060929

Integrated business model Operational efficiency Deployment phase

...

Portfolio review of existing platforms

Implementation complexity High NPV [$ MM] Low High Low

An example of future approach for research

The Biorefinary Business Models (BBM) can be assessed based

• n their long term value creation potential

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Biorefinaries, attraction of capital for innovation and densifying knowledge frameworks…

Business pipeline

Universities Academia Private Government Foundations Innovation agencies Innovation centers R&D Agencies Incubators Tech parks Brazil International exchange

• International

partners

• Advisors
• Partners’ networks
• Media
• Business partners
• Seminars

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Food Production Systems Bioenergy Production Systems Environmental services

• Managing landscapes sustainably
• Multiple products with value added and environmental services
• Increase farmer´s income
• Improve GHGs balances of current ethanol´s benchmark
• Reduce the dependence on fossil fuels while contributing to the

production of other goods and services

Food systems Energy systems

How to integrate these systems at landscape level?

Remaining challenges and discussions

Sustainable production of any feedstock (or biomass) is vital for the viability of the bioenergy/bioeconomy based products and services

How? Where? With whom? When?

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Information assessment & market signals

Bioenergy and biofuels are not the panacea to solve all energy problems, but can effectively contribute towards a low carbon economy scenario in the present and in the near future.

Thanks

• Contact info

Weber Antonio Neves do Amaral Email: wanamaral@gmail.com Cel phone: 402 - 4841127