the EV Secondary Market Dr. Gil Tal gtal@ucdavis.edu Thursday - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sm Smart Columbus De Dealer ersh ship p Eng ngagement Workshop

Opportunities and Barriers For the EV Secondary Market

• Dr. Gil Tal gtal@ucdavis.edu

Thursday September 15, 2016 Columbus, OH

NEW CAR BUYERS AND PEV BUYERS: Few New car Buyers creates the secondary market

21% bought 1 car = 72%

• f new car

purchases

75% of the households did not purchase new car in the last 3 years

• 4% of the households are responsible for almost one third of the

market over the last 3 years 2010-2012

• Up to 15% of PEV buyers are on their second PEV

4% of HH purchased 2+ cars = 28+% of new cars

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2012 2013 2014 2015

Newest PEV model year

First PEV Had a PEV Have 2+ PEVs

ICE Buyers PEV Buyers

The used car market California Perspective

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

6Y OLD 5Y OLD 4Y OLD 3Y OLD 2Y OLD 1Y OLD NE W

% New % Used

Ownership Status by Model Year Income level by number of new vehicles purchased in the last 5 years

Plug lug in in Elec lectric ic Vehic icle le (P (PEV) ) Purchase Motiv tivatio ions

MPG Not using gas Range Electric experience Performance

$41,900 $41,140 $41,000 $37,227 $36,171 $40,280

$39,145

$39,147 $34,185 $34,170 $36,328 $33,798 $32,855 $28,650 $27,488 $25,429 $26,643 $28,000 $32,000 $21,576 $19,738 $24,672 $32,789 $22,750

$18,894

$20,871 $23,250 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 Chevrolet Volt, 2011 Chevrolet Volt, 2012 Chevrolet Volt, 2013 Chevrolet Volt, 2014 Chevrolet Volt, 2015 Priced paid New MSRP Paid Price Minus Incentives Purchased Used on 2013 Purchased Used on 2014 Purchased Used on 2015

Residual Value 48.3% 2012 Volt Sold in 2015: The OEM Perspective

$41,900 $41,140 $41,000 $37,227 $36,171 $40,280 $39,145 $39,147 $34,185 $34,170 $36,328

$33,798

$32,855 $28,650 $27,488 $25,429 $26,643 $28,000 $32,000 $21,576 $19,738 $24,672 $32,789 $22,750

$18,894

$20,871 $23,250 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 Chevrolet Volt, 2011 Chevrolet Volt, 2012 Chevrolet Volt, 2013 Chevrolet Volt, 2014 Chevrolet Volt, 2015 Priced paid New MSRP Paid Price Minus Incentives Purchased Used on 2013 Purchased Used on 2014 Purchased Used on 2015

2012 Volt Sold in 2015: The Seller Perspective Residual Value 55.9%

2012 Volt Sold in 2015: The Buyer Perspective

$41,900 $41,140 $41,000 $37,227 $36,171 $40,280 $39,145 $39,147 $34,185 $34,170 $36,328 $33,798 $32,855 $28,650

$27,488

$25,429 $26,643 $28,000 $32,000 $21,576 $19,738 $24,672 $32,789 $22,750

$18,894

$20,871 $23,250 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 Chevrolet Volt, 2011 Chevrolet Volt, 2012 Chevrolet Volt, 2013 Chevrolet Volt, 2014 Chevrolet Volt, 2015 Priced paid New MSRP Paid Price Minus Incentives Purchased Used on 2013 Purchased Used on 2014 Purchased Used on 2015

Residual Value 68.7%

Residual Value is Between 34% and 99%

MSRP Full Price Price Minus Incentives Used Price in 2014 Used Price in 2015 price minus incentives of a 2015 model

2015 price over MSRP 2015 price over Paid as New 2015 price over new car price Nissan Leaf, 2011

$33,572 $ 34,990 $ 26,815 $ 15,497 $11,463 $ 22,779

34% 43% 50% Nissan Leaf, 2012

$36,882 $ 35,852 $ 26,564 $12,508 $ 22,779

34% 47% 55% Nissan Leaf, 2013

$31,517 $ 33,488 $ 24,380 $13,912 $ 22,779

44% 57% 61% Tesla Model S, 2013

$87,217 $ 96,732 $ 87,974 $67,338 $ 105,998

77% 77% 64% Ford Fusion Energy, 2013

$39,235 $ 41,243 $ 35,936 $25,288 $ 36,214

64% 70% 70% Chevrolet Volt, 2012

$39,145 $ 41,140 $ 33,798 $ 24,672 $20,871 $ 27,488

53% 62% 76% Chevrolet Volt, 2013

$39,174 $ 41,000 $ 32,855 $ 24,672 $20,871 $ 27,488

53% 64% 76% Ford C-Max Energy, 2013

$31,665 $ 35,014 $ 29,664 $22,875 $ 29,900

72% 77% 77% Toyota Prius Plug-in, 2012

$38,195 $ 36,211 $ 32,273 $ 24,823 $22,973 $ 27,951

60% 71% 82% Toyota Prius Plug-in, 2013

$38,704 $ 34,259 $ 30,394 $24,412 $ 27,951

63% 80% 87% Toyota Prius Plug-in, 2014

$34,307 $ 31,726 $ 27,759 $27,525 $ 27,951

80% 99% 98%

Dealers are the main source for used PEVs

30% 46% 8% 15% 1%

Where did you Purchase Your Used "PEV"

A used car dealership (including online) A car dealership of the brand I purchased Other A private owner An online service (Like eBay or similar. I did not see the car before purchasing it.)

Please rank the top three most influential information sources when you were deciding whether to acquire a PEV.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Third-party vehicle review (Consumer Reports, etc.) Another PEV driver Vehicle test drive Other (Please specify below) Online discussion forum Manufacturer website Electric utility News story My employer Dealer/salesperson Government agency Social Media Non-profit organization Non-PEV driver

Which of the following statements best describes your interest in acquiring a Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) when you started your search for your {mainpev}?

50 100 150 200 250

I did not know PEVs existed I had no interest in a PEV I had some interest in a PEV I was only interested in a PEV, but considered multiple PEV make/models I was only interested in the specific PEV make/model I purchased I was very interested in a PEV

Share of Buyers who are "not aware of the federal tax credit (up to $7,500)“

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% A used car dealership (including online) A car dealership of the brand I purchased Other A private owner An online service (Like eBay or similar. I did not see the car before purchasing it.)

What about technical knowledge?

41.8% 11.2% 1.5% 27.6% 17.9% 15.8% 13.3% 1.4%

No, the car is under warranty No, I did not ask None of the above Yes, I asked the seller Yes, I searched online or consulted other sources regarding the… Yes, I looked at the dashboard display when the battery was fully… Yes, I received a battery report from the dealer Yes, I received a battery report from an independent tester]

When buying your {mainpev} did you ask about the condition of its battery?

What do we know about the secondary market so far

• Residual value is in the eye of the beholder as
• Price of new PEVs dropped over time
• Some buyers had the right knowledge to calculate actual cost
• Most of the buyers were looking for a used PEV, very few start with a

different car in mind.

• Knowledge (awareness and education) is most likely the key for a

strong secondary market

Thank you

Questions? Gil Tal gtal@ucdavis.edu