The Carbon Cycle Response to the 2015-16 El Nio Andrew R. Jacobson, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Carbon Cycle Response to the 2015-16 El Nio Andrew R. Jacobson, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 10, 2023 412 likes •763 views

The Carbon Cycle Response to the 2015-16 El Nio Andrew R. Jacobson, University of Colorado and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory David F. Baker, Colorado State University John B. Miller, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Martin

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The Carbon Cycle Response to the 2015-16 El Niño

Andrew R. Jacobson, University of Colorado and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory David F. Baker, Colorado State University John B. Miller, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Martin Hoerling, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Rik Wanninkhof, NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Paul Novelli, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Pieter Tans, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Prabir K. Patra, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Christine Wiedinmyer, National Center for Atmospheric Research Ed Dlugokencky, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Kirk Thoning, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Louis Giglio, University of Maryland

Outline

  • What kind of El Niño is this?
  • How much extra CO2 is in the atmosphere?
  • What did the oceans do?
  • How much CO2 came from fires?
  • Can we close the budget?
  • Can we model this event?

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Week ending on May 15, 2016: 407.84 ppm Weekly value from 1 year ago: 403.83 ppm Record CO2 growth rate at Mauna Loa in 2015

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Note timing

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Note timing

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1997-98 2015-16 Atmosphere 1.9 to 2.21 2.2 to 3.61

El Niño-driven anomalous CO2 (PgC)

1. This work

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SST anomaly flux anomaly

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1997-98 2015-16 Atmosphere 1.9 to 2.21 2.2 to 3.61 Oceans

  • 0.52 to -0.73

(-0.3 to) 0.42

El Niño-driven anomalous CO2 (PgC)

1. This work 2. NOAA AOML monthly pCO2 3. Chavez et al. (Science, 1999)

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13 Photo credit: Martin Wooster

Apocalyptic fire season? Not according to MODIS-driven fire models (GFAS and FINN). Perhaps smoldering peat fires?

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NOAA in situ flask CO

 249 ppb

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15 Referenced to 2000-2014 MOPITT CO climatology

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16 Referenced to 2000-2014 MOPITT CO climatology

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17 Referenced to 2000-2014 MOPITT CO climatology

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18 Referenced to 2000-2014 MOPITT CO climatology

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19 Referenced to 2000-2014 MOPITT CO climatology

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Emission ratio (ppb CO per ppm CO2) 50 grasslands 100 forest 150 forest & peat Sep 2015 – 30°S to 30°N 45.0 22.5 15.0 Oct 2015 – 30°S to 30°N 239.9 119.9 80.0 Oct 2015 - plume 209.2 104.6 69.7 Nov 2015 – 30°S to 30°N 302.1 151.0 100.7 Sep through Nov 2015 total

assumes 1 month CO decay time

587.0 293.4 195.7

2015 fire CO2 emissions estimated from CO (TgC)

Thanks to John Miller for help in this analysis

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1997-98 2015-16 Atmosphere 1.9 to 2.21 2.2 to 3.61 Oceans

  • 0.52 to -0.73

(-0.3 to) 0.42 Fire 0.8 to 3.74 0.8 to 2.65 0.1 to 0.31

El Niño-driven anomalous CO2 (PgC)

1. This work 2. NOAA AOML monthly pCO2 3. Chavez et al. (Science, 1999) 4. Langenfelds et al. (GBC, 2002) 5. Page et al. (Nature, 2002)

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NOAA CO MBL surface

  • Network not so sensitive to tropics
  • This El Niño is unlike 1997-98
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1997-98 2015-16 Atmosphere 1.9 to 2.21 2.2 to 3.61 Oceans

  • 0.52 to -0.73

(-0.3 to) 0.42 Fire 0.8 to 3.74 0.8 to 2.65 0.1 to 0.31 Residual land 0.2 to 1.31 2.1 to 2.91

El Niño-driven anomalous CO2 (PgC)

1. This work 2. NOAA AOML monthly pCO2 3. Chavez et al. (Science, 1999) 4. Langenfelds et al. (GBC, 2002) 5. Page et al. (Nature, 2002)

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Through January 2016, CT-NRT sees an anomaly of only about 0.4 PgC.

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26 Referenced to 2007-2014 GOME-2 SIF climatology

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27 Referenced to 2007-2014 GOME-2 SIF climatology

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28 Referenced to 2007-2014 GOME-2 SIF climatology

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29 Referenced to 2007-2014 GOME-2 SIF climatology

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30 Referenced to 2007-2014 GOME-2 SIF climatology

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31 Referenced to 2007-2014 GOME-2 SIF climatology

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32 Referenced to 2007-2014 GOME-2 SIF climatology

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Conclusions

  • The 2015-16 El Niño is not over!
  • It is responsible for 2.2 to 3.6 PgC extra CO2 in the

atmosphere - so far.

  • The fire contribution in 2015 was small.
  • The ocean response may have been atypical.
  • The residual land emission anomaly is 2.5 ± 0.4 PgC.
  • CarbonTracker does not yet see this El Niño.

Next steps

  • Confirm small fire contribution
  • Look at other air-sea flux products
  • Will models pick this up in early 2016? Stay tuned.