The Big Picture: Agriculture Looks Ahead to 2018 Matthew C. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 18, 2024 •126 likes •390 views

The Big Picture: Agriculture Looks Ahead to 2018 Matthew C. Roberts, PhD | www.kernmantlegroup.com 9 January 2018 2 So its all good news, right? No. There are some major challenges, too. Policy: Trade (NAFTA, WTO, KORUS) Farm

The Big Picture: Agriculture Looks Ahead to 2018 Matthew C. Roberts, PhD | www.kernmantlegroup.com 9 January 2018
2
So its all good news, right? No.
There are some major challenges, too. • Policy: • Trade (NAFTA, WTO, KORUS) • Farm Bill • Infrastructure • Ethanol • Macro • It’s time for a recession • Commodity Cycle • Crops are still weak • Rents are still high • Export Competition is high • What Fad will strike next?
I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. My sons ought to study mathematics, philosophy, […] commerce, and agriculture, in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain. --John Adams, 1780
My father studied politics and war so that I may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. I studied mathematics, […] commerce, and agriculture, in order to give my children the right to create hashtags such as #Resist and #OccupyWallStreet, spend thousands on tattoos and piercings and organize anti-globalist protests at Starbucks on their MacBooks. --Matt Roberts (2017)
The Commodity Cycle: Crops • We remain 2-3 years out until profits in the crop sector normalize. • Normalize means $50-$75/acre to management. • Rents must continue to decline • Prices will strengthen some • Acres will shift to soy away from corn and wheat due to higher demand.
Soy Exports Shine
Cash Rents are Finally Weakening NE IA MN IN
Livestock Cycle • Livestock sector responsible for increased profits 2017 vs. 2016 • Hog demand remains incredible • Lots of new grow & slaughter capacity coming online • Market is contingent on continued strong exports • 2018 should be similar to 2017 • Beef demand is solid • Later in the cycle, though • Calf prices have remained firm • Feeders have been profitable.
Put it all together… • All forces still point forward for Ag. • Crops are still consolidating • Livestock is profitable • Trade is the biggest worry • There will be a recession
What should you be doing? • Becoming a better manager. • Be financially conservative. • Go long & fix on borrowing. • Look for opportunities.
Questions? Matthew C. Roberts, PhD | www.kernmantlegroup.com | @YourEconProf

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