The beginnings of the Second Automobile Revolution Firms strategies - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Economia e Politica Industriale « Sfide ed opportunità della filiera automobilistica », 17 Maggio 2010, Milano

The beginnings of the Second Automobile Revolution

Firms strategies and public policies

Michel Freyssenet CNRS Paris GERPISA international network

The last GERPISA book is intitled…

Four stages and conditions for a revolution in transport system

• The crisis of the previous transport system
• The emergence of various solutions, combining and adaptating

innovations often coming from others sectors

• The formation of a coalition of forces for one of the solutions, despite

its great uncertainties

• Macroeconomic decisions and public policies allowing the diffusion

and the generalization of adopted solution

Oil and gas stocks by world resident

Comparison with the beginning of automobile

• The horse-drawn was becoming more an more an obstacle to the mobility and the

productivity in the new rural, industrial, urban and military context at the end of the XIXth century. Many people protested and wished to find other solutions

• New innovative products in other fields: electricity, benzine, petrol, little motors for

family workshops, bicycles, etc.

• Some technicians, independant or salaried ones, imagined possible combinations of

these innovations and proposed engines for vehicles: powered by steam, electricity or petrol

• Some capitalist entrepreneurs perceived the possible solvent demand, immediately and

for the future, and adapted technicians prototypes in complete vehicles for buyers: upper-class, taxi, shopkeepers, transport contractors, army, etc.

The most known « clean(er) automobile » start-ups in some countries

Stevens Vehicles, Lightning, Nice car UK Tazzari, Maranello, Pininfarina Micro-Vett Italy Protoscar, Rinspeed Suisse Bolloré, SVE Dassault, Michelin suppliers BYD, Geely Tata newcomers China Reva India SIM-DRIVE Japan Koenigsegg Suède E-Wolf, Ruf Germany Heuliez, FAM, Aixam Venturi, Biro France Miles Electric, GEM Tesla, Zap, Fisker, Think, Phoenix USA

• thers

Start-up

The electric vehicle « La Jamais-Contente » first automobile to break the 100km/h barrier: 1899

The choice of petrol engined car: an incredible paradox

• Why the carmakers choiced the more uncertain solution ?
• Many contradictory and historically wrong explanations
• The probable reason: the petrol was the only energy easely

transportable, stockable and distribuable in all territories and in all

• countries. A complete system of delivery was setting up rapidly. The

distribution of petrol wasn’t a monopol

• If that is true, the technic, industrial, price constraints as obstacles to

new types of cars must be relativised

« well to wheel » CO2 emission, according to the types of motor and of energy

Five (changing!) strategies: priority to…

Toyota Honda Mazda Hyundaï Porsche Hybrid Renault Nissan Geely Volvo Chrysler GM Mitsubishi BYD Ford PSA Volkswagen Fiat full electric plug-in hybrid and full electric all types less carbon fuels

Partnerships to create the market

alternative energies national preference for clean(er) cars …until now…

Japan Germany European Union USA China France Great Britain Russia Italy Brazil

• bjectives of

reduction,

• nly

Plug-in hybrid, full electric Natural gas Agro-fuel

The full electric vehicle could be the vehicle

• f the Second Automobile Revolution
• Only a complete change could allow a relaunch of profit and of

competition

• The electric vehicle isn’t only a new engine, but a complete new

automobile architecture, a new product and a new knowledge

• The electricity is now accessible in all territories and almost in all

countries and it is frequently much less expensive than the petrol.

• The technical problems of electric vehicle are much less important than

the problems of the petrol automobile at its appearence

• The best opportunity for newcomers, especially Chinese newcomers
• A new profit strategy? « innovation and volume »?

in short….

• The political will to fight against the climate warming up is uncertain
• But not the tendencial increase of the real petrol price, because of the

exponential needs of BRIC

• So the « automobilisation » of BRIC can pursue durably only with

alternative energies and new types of automobiles

• This constraint and the full electric car are great opportunities for

Chinese carmakers to become economically and technologically independant from the historical carmakers

• The only uncertainty is not the future growth of BRIC, but the

insufficient distribution of national revenue to the people of these countries

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