Transformation and Choice of European Automobile Industry - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Transformation and Choice of European Automobile Industry - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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KAABA Symposium The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis Seoul, June 23, 2010 Transformation and Choice of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis Michel FREYSSENET CNRS Paris

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KAABA Symposium The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis Seoul, June 23, 2010

Transformation and Choice

  • f European Automobile Industry

Post-Global Financial Crisis

Michel FREYSSENET CNRS Paris GERPISA

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CONTENT

  • European auto industry, the year before the crisis
  • The actions of the carmakers and of the States

and their effects on the automobile crisis

  • Opportunities and new orientations to prepare the

future

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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The year before…

  • Europe: one third of the world automobile market and of the

worldwide production

  • A slight tendantial bipolarization of the automobile demand structure
  • Trajectories divergence of Western Europa and of Central Europa
  • Vehicle type preferences of South Europa and of North Europa
  • Different profit strategies of carmakers

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice

  • f Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
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Market share

Diesel 4x4 Average cubic capacity Average power

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice

  • f Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
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Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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Germany France United Kingdom Italy

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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The actions of the carmakers and of the States and their effects on the auto crisis (1)

  • The common reactions of carmakers
  • free cash plans
  • axing of temporary jobs, work time reduction, hiring stop
  • modifications of the products plans
  • The differentiated reactions of carmakers
  • transfer of subsidiaries and plant closures by GM and

Ford

  • at the contrary of the others

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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The actions of the carmakers and of the States and their effects on the auto crisis (2)

  • Support plans to the banks of carmakers to be able to

finance the automobile credit

  • Support plans to car demand : « scrappage premiums » and

« CO2 reduction premiums »

  • A moderate fall of demand
  • A boom of small and less carbon cars
  • After the premiums?

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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Source: ACEA

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Source: ACEA

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice

  • f Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
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Opportunities and new orientations (1)

  • Unusual race to increase the national competitivity, bteween

France and Germany

  • The battle for Opel: Fiat, Magna, GM.

Why didn’t PSA, VW or others buy Opel?

  • European specialist carmakers on sale: Saab and Volvo.

Only Chinese and sport carmakers were interessed.Why?

  • European carmakers prefered new alliances and joint ventures:

VW-Porsche-SuzukiMaruti… may be Proton PSA, Mitsubishi… may be Changan Renault/Nissan-Daimler…may be SsangYong Fiat-Chrysler…and Sollers

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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Opportunities and new orientations (2)

  • The clean(er) automobile perspective: evolution or revolution?
  • The contrasted and changing positions of the carmakers
  • The different preferences and policies of the States
  • What are their real strategies?
  • The newcomers and their chances

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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(changing!) clean(er) automobile strategies: priority to…

PSA Volkswagen Daimler BMW Hybrid versus all types Renault- Nissan and newcomers (Bolloré, Heuliez, Micro Vett, Lightning…) Fiat Volvo full electric plug-in hybrid less carbon fuels: gaz, agrofuel

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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alternative energies national preference for clean(er) cars …until now…

Germany European Union France Great Britain Portugal Spain Irland Danemark Switzerland Russia Italy Sweden Objectives of reduction, only Plug-in hybrid, full electric Natural gas Agro-fuel

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice

  • f Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
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Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

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Conclusion

  • From 2008 crisis …to a Second Automobile Revolution
  • A new architecture automobile?
  • A complete change of the geography, the economy and the

sociology of the world automobile industry? A hard battle is starting

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice

  • f Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
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For more informations and analysis http://freyssenet.com http://gerpisa.univ-evry.fr http://leblog.gerpisa.org

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.