The 23 rd AIM International Workshop November 27-28, 2017 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Thailand’s NDC and AIM Bundit Limmeechokchai Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology Thammasat University, Thailand 1
2
Long-Term Economic Growth (2015-2036) Source: PDP2015 3
Population Forecast 4
Thailand’s Climate Change Master Plan 2050 Approved by Cabinet on 14 July 2015 5
Thailand CO 2 emission targets 6
Thailand’s - PDP 2015 AEDP EEP 2015 Transport - EEP2015 2015 Fuel Infrastructu - Biofuel & re Efficient AEDP2015 Heat Developme (Non- - Smart (Non- nt Strategy electric) Grids electric) 2015-2022 7
Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015) • 3.94% of the average GDP growth rate (2014-2036), was estimated by NESDB • 0.03% of the average population growth • 89,672 GWh was saved by EEDP in 2036 • 19,634 MW was set for the renewable energy development target by AEDP in 2036 • The power demand from BTS sky train, MRT train, and 10 mass rapid transit projects in Bangkok was included except those of the unclear high speed train projects. • Thailand smart grid master plan was included supporting the renewable energy sites Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version) 8
The Estimated Fuel Requirement for The PDP2015 9 Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version)
Energy Efficiency Plan: EEP2015 • PDP2015 already included the electricity demand from EEP • 30% energy intensity reduction in 2030 compared to 2010 Final Energy Consumption Target by EEP 10 Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version)
Electricity Savings in EEP2015 • 89,672 GWh of electricity can be saved by 2036 Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version) 11
Alternative Energy Development Plan: AEDP2015 12
Alternative Energy Development Plan: AEDP2015 13
14
Thailand’s INDC Economy-wide GHG Emissions in 2030 15
GHG reduction target in NDC Roadmap BaU emissions 20% GHG reduction Waste IPPU Residential Commercial Transport Industry Power 600 GHG mitigation 555 - Power 24 Mt-CO 2 eq GHG - Industry 43 Mt-CO 2 eq 500 GHG emissions (Mt-CO 2 eq) mitigation - Transport 41 Mt-CO 2 eq - Residential 4 Mt-CO 2 eq - Commercial 1 Mt-CO 2 eq 400 - IPPU 0.6 Mt-CO 2 eq - Waste 2 Mt-CO 2 eq Total GHG mitigation 300 115.6 Mt-CO 2 eq 439.4 200 100 0 2030BaU 2030INDC 16
Thailand’s NDC Roadmap 2030 Integrated Plans AEDP2015-2036 EEP2015-2036 PDP2015-2036 Smart Grid (2015-2026) Transport Infrastructure Development Plan 2030 Green Industry 2021 Waste MP 2016-2021 Invir Quality Improvement Plan 2017-2021 RAC NAMA 17
CMs in Energy sector and Transport Sector Unit: Mt-CO 2 e 4.3% 0.7% 0.2% 7.4% 7.8% 18
CMs in Waste sector Unit: Mt-CO 2 e 0.2 % 0.1% 28 28 19
CMs in Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) Unit: Mt-CO 2 e 0.1% 29 29 20
AIM/Enduse Analyses: Thailand’s NDC Roadmap EE NDC Roadmap in Buildings Energy Efficiency Measures
AIM/Enduse Analyses: Thailand’s NDC Roadmap EE NDC Roadmap in Transport Energy Efficiency Measures
AIM/Enduse Analyses: Thailand’s NDC Roadmap NDC Roadmap in IPPU Sector Material Substitution Measures
AIM/Enduse Analyses: Thailand’s NDC Roadmap NDC Roadmap in Waste Sector Management Measures
AIM/CGE Analyses: Effects of GHG mitigation targets on per capita GDP and GHG emissions 25
AIM/CGE Analyses: Effects of GHG mitigation targets on Energy Intensity and GHG Intensity 26
AIM/CGE Analyses: Effects of GHG mitigation targets on Energy Mix 27
AIM/CGE Analyses: Effects of GHG mitigation targets on GHG Composition 28
AIM/CGE Analyses: Co-benefits of GHG mitigation targets Black Carbon in 2030 29
AIM/CGE Analyses: Co-benefits of GHG mitigation targets Black Carbon in 2030 30
Energy Productivity (GDP/ktoe) Unit: million 2005 US$/ktoe BAU 31
Energy & Transport IPPU Waste 113 Mt CO 2 e 0.6 MtCO 2 e 2 MtCO 2 e 32
Strategy 1 Strategy 3 Strategy 5 Strategy 2 Strategy 4 AWARENESS LAW MRV ECONOMICS RD&D SUPPORTIVE POLICY/MEASURES TO 33 THAILAND’s NDC ROADMAP 2030
Thailand BUR2 (GHG Inventory) Energy Industrial processes Agriculture LULUCF Waste Net emissions (Include LULLCF) 400,000 GHG emissions (GgCO 2 eq) 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 -100,000 -200,000 -300,000 -400,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Thailand BUR1 (UNFCCC, 2017)
CO 2 emissions are decoupled from TFEC THAILAND Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste Total final energy consumption 550,000 100,000 500,000 90,000 Final energy consumption (ktoe) GHG emissions (GgCO 2 eq) 450,000 80,000 400,000 70,000 350,000 60,000 300,000 50,000 250,000 40,000 200,000 30,000 150,000 20,000 100,000 10,000 50,000 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Thailand’s National Communication (TNC) & AIM 36
37
38
39
40
Development of Nepal & Thailand’s AFOLU 41
Development of Thailand’s AFOLU Highlighted Countermeasures in Thailand’s AFOLU A. Enteric B. Manure C. Manure D. Rice cultivation E. Agricultural F. Field burning of G. Carbon Fermentation management Management soils agriculture sequestration in (CH4) (N2O) residues croplands 1.Improve feed 1. Good practices 1 Improve in 1 Water 1 Appropriate 1. Sequestration in 1. Enhance C input in solid manure animal efficiency management fertilizer woody plants in croplands 2. Improve dietary storage/managem 1.2 Mid season application additives ent systems 2. Good practices drainage 1.1. Appropriate 2. Reduce or 2. Increase crop in manure storage 1.2 Alternative fertilizer prevent burning of residue uses 3. Improve breeds 2. Anaerobic wetting and drying application for agricultural with high digester replacing 3. Improve (AWD) site-specific residues in the 3. Reduce C loss productivity or uncovered lagoon feed/diet for 1.3 multiple nutrient field from croplands with reduced CH4 lower N excreta /intermittent management emission 3. Dietary drainage (SSNM) additives 1.2. Appropriate 4. Microbial 2. Applied fertilzer technology 4. Good practices appropriate rate application for in wet/slurry and form of good agricultural manure organic materials practice management and good practices in rice cultivation 2. Application of urease inhibitors 4. Application of and nitrification sulfate fertilizers inhibitors, slow release fertilizers 5. Improve breeds with high 3. Improve crop productivity or productivity and reduced CH4 improve nutrient emission (N) use efficiency by crop variety 42 Source: ONEP (2017)
Flow Diagram of Nepal & Thailand’s CGE Definition of Variables 43 Source: Toshihiko Masui (NIES, 2017)
Recommend
More recommend
