Thailands NDC and AIM Bundit Limmeechokchai Sirindhorn - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Thailands NDC and AIM Bundit Limmeechokchai Sirindhorn - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 24, 2023 272 likes •717 views

The 23 rd AIM International Workshop November 27-28, 2017 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Thailands NDC and AIM Bundit Limmeechokchai Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology Thammasat University,

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Thailand’s NDC and AIM

Bundit Limmeechokchai Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology Thammasat University, Thailand

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The 23rd AIM International Workshop November 27-28, 2017 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

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Long-Term Economic Growth (2015-2036)

Source: PDP2015

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Population Forecast

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Thailand’s Climate Change Master Plan 2050

Approved by Cabinet on 14 July 2015

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Thailand CO2 emission targets

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  • PDP 2015
  • EEP2015
  • AEDP2015
  • Smart

Grids AEDP 2015

Biofuel & Heat (Non- electric)

EEP 2015 Fuel Efficient

(Non- electric) Thailand’s Transport Infrastructu re Developme nt Strategy 2015-2022

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  • 3.94% of the average GDP growth rate (2014-2036), was

estimated by NESDB

  • 0.03% of the average population growth
  • 89,672 GWh was saved by EEDP in 2036
  • 19,634 MW was set for the renewable energy development

target by AEDP in 2036

  • The power demand from BTS sky train, MRT train, and 10

mass rapid transit projects in Bangkok was included except those of the unclear high speed train projects.

  • Thailand smart grid master plan was included supporting

the renewable energy sites

Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version)

Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015)

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The Estimated Fuel Requirement for The PDP2015

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  • PDP2015 already

included the electricity demand from EEP

  • 30% energy

intensity reduction in 2030 compared to 2010

Final Energy Consumption Target by EEP

Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version)

Energy Efficiency Plan: EEP2015

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Electricity Savings in EEP2015

  • 89,672 GWh of electricity can be saved by 2036

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Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version)

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Alternative Energy Development Plan: AEDP2015

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Alternative Energy Development Plan: AEDP2015

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Thailand’s INDC Economy-wide GHG Emissions in 2030

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GHG reduction target in NDC Roadmap

555 439.4 100 200 300 400 500 600 2030BaU 2030INDC GHG emissions (Mt-CO2eq) BaU emissions 20% GHG reduction Waste IPPU Residential Commercial Transport Industry Power GHG mitigation

  • Power 24 Mt-CO2eq
  • Industry 43 Mt-CO2eq
  • Transport 41 Mt-CO2eq
  • Residential 4 Mt-CO2eq
  • Commercial 1 Mt-CO2eq
  • IPPU 0.6 Mt-CO2eq
  • Waste 2 Mt-CO2eq

Total GHG mitigation 115.6 Mt-CO2eq GHG mitigation

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Thailand’s NDC Roadmap 2030

  • AEDP2015-2036
  • EEP2015-2036
  • PDP2015-2036
  • Smart Grid (2015-2026)
  • Transport Infrastructure

Development Plan 2030

  • Green Industry 2021
  • Waste MP 2016-2021
  • Invir Quality Improvement

Plan 2017-2021

  • RAC NAMA

Integrated Plans

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CMs in Energy sector and Transport Sector

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Unit: Mt-CO2e

4.3% 0.7% 0.2% 7.4% 7.8%

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CMs in Waste sector

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Unit: Mt-CO2e

0.2 % 0.1%

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CMs in Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU)

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Unit: Mt-CO2e

0.1%

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EE NDC Roadmap in Buildings

Energy Efficiency Measures

AIM/Enduse Analyses: Thailand’s NDC Roadmap

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EE NDC Roadmap in Transport

Energy Efficiency Measures

AIM/Enduse Analyses: Thailand’s NDC Roadmap

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NDC Roadmap in IPPU Sector

Material Substitution Measures

AIM/Enduse Analyses: Thailand’s NDC Roadmap

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NDC Roadmap in Waste Sector

Management Measures

AIM/Enduse Analyses: Thailand’s NDC Roadmap

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AIM/CGE Analyses:

Effects of GHG mitigation targets on per capita GDP and GHG emissions

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AIM/CGE Analyses:

Effects of GHG mitigation targets on Energy Intensity and GHG Intensity

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AIM/CGE Analyses:

Effects of GHG mitigation targets on Energy Mix

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AIM/CGE Analyses:

Effects of GHG mitigation targets on GHG Composition

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AIM/CGE Analyses:

Co-benefits of GHG mitigation targets Black Carbon in 2030

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AIM/CGE Analyses:

Co-benefits of GHG mitigation targets Black Carbon in 2030

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Energy Productivity (GDP/ktoe)

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Unit: million 2005 US$/ktoe

BAU

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Energy & Transport 113 Mt CO2e

IPPU 0.6 MtCO2e

Waste 2 MtCO2e

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Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5 RD&D ECONOMICS LAW MRV AWARENESS

SUPPORTIVE POLICY/MEASURES TO THAILAND’s NDC ROADMAP 2030

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  • 400,000
  • 300,000
  • 200,000
  • 100,000

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GHG emissions (GgCO2eq) Energy Industrial processes Agriculture LULUCF Waste Net emissions (Include LULLCF)

Thailand BUR2 (GHG Inventory)

Source: Thailand BUR1 (UNFCCC, 2017)

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10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Final energy consumption (ktoe) GHG emissions (GgCO2eq) Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste Total final energy consumption

CO2 emissions are decoupled from TFEC THAILAND

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Thailand’s National Communication (TNC) & AIM

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Development of Nepal & Thailand’s AFOLU

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Development of Thailand’s AFOLU

  • A. Enteric

Fermentation

  • B. Manure

management (CH4)

  • C. Manure

Management (N2O)

  • D. Rice cultivation
  • E. Agricultural

soils

  • F. Field burning of

agriculture residues

  • G. Carbon

sequestration in croplands 1.Improve feed

  • 2. Improve dietary

additives

  • 3. Improve breeds

with high productivity or with reduced CH4 emission

  • 4. Microbial

technology

  • 1. Good practices

in solid manure storage/managem ent systems

  • 2. Anaerobic

digester replacing uncovered lagoon

  • 3. Dietary

additives

  • 4. Good practices

in wet/slurry manure management 1 Improve in animal efficiency

  • 2. Good practices

in manure storage

  • 3. Improve

feed/diet for lower N excreta 1 Water management 1.2 Mid season drainage 1.2 Alternative wetting and drying (AWD) 1.3 multiple /intermittent drainage

  • 2. Applied

appropriate rate and form of

  • rganic materials

and good practices in rice cultivation

  • 4. Application of

sulfate fertilizers

  • 5. Improve breeds

with high productivity or reduced CH4 emission 1 Appropriate fertilizer application 1.1. Appropriate fertilizer application for site-specific nutrient management (SSNM) 1.2. Appropriate fertilzer application for good agricultural practice

  • 2. Application of

urease inhibitors and nitrification inhibitors, slow release fertilizers

  • 3. Improve crop

productivity and improve nutrient (N) use efficiency by crop variety

  • 1. Sequestration in

woody plants

  • 2. Reduce or

prevent burning of agricultural residues in the field

  • 1. Enhance C input

in croplands

  • 2. Increase crop

residue uses

  • 3. Reduce C loss

from croplands

Highlighted Countermeasures in Thailand’s AFOLU

Source: ONEP (2017)

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Flow Diagram of Nepal & Thailand’s CGE

Definition of Variables Source: Toshihiko Masui (NIES, 2017)

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