Technology Horizons: Vision for Air Force 2010-2030 Capabilities - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Headquarters U.S. Air Force Technology Horizons: Vision for Air Force 2010-2030 Capabilities Enabled by Science & Technology Dr. Werner J.A. Dahm (Former) Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force AF/ST, Headquarters Air Force Air Force
Vision for Air Force 2010-2030 Capabilities Enabled by Science & Technology
(Former) Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force AF/ST, Headquarters Air Force Air Force Pentagon (4E130) Washington, D.C.
25 Jun 2011 AFA Presentation Public Releasable
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Advent of manned flight Gas turbine engine Aerial refueling Rocket flight Supersonic flow Night attack High-speed flight Long-range radar Communications ICBMs Space ISR 5th-gen fighters Global positioning Precision strike Space launch Stealth / LO Modeling & simulation Directed energy High-power lasers Hypersonics Blended wing-body Long-endurance ISR Unmanned systems Cyber operations 2
Space Vehicles Directed Energy Munitions Propulsion Human Effectiveness Information Air Vehicles Sensors AFOSR Materials & Manufacturing
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AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
Amounts shown are $2B/yr Air Force core funds; does not include $2B/yr customer funds
$1.9B Direct AFRL funds + $2.2B Customer funds + 324M Congress adds $4.5B total AFRL 6.1, 6.2, 6.3
AFA Presentation Public Releasable
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25 Jun 2011
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Air Domain 46%
Nearly one-quarter of all Air Force S&T investment now goes into the cyber domain
$541M
(core)
$566M
(core)
$862M
(core)
Cyber Domain 24% Space Domain 30%
AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
SecAF / CSAF Tasking Letter Terms of Reference (TOR)
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n “Technology Horizons” is the next in the succession of major S&T
vision studies conducted at the Headquarters Air Force level that define key S&T investments over the next 10-20 years
Toward New Horizons (1945) Project Forecast (1964) New World Vistas (1995)
Technology Horizons (2010)
1 3 6 7
Woods Hole Summer Study (1958) New Horizons II (1975) Project Forecast II (1986) 2 4 5
1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2010+
Low-impact studies High-impact studies AFA Presentation Public Releasable
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25 Jun 2011
“10+10 Technology-to-Capability” process gives a deductive 20-year horizon view
U.S. Counter- Capabilities Potential Adversary Capabilities
STEP 1 1
10-Years-Forward Science & Technology Projection 10-Years-Forward Capabilities Projection
STEP 2 2
10-Years-Back Science & Technology Investment Need
STEP 4 4
10-Years-Back Counter-Capability Technology Need
STEP 3 3
Capabilities Today (2010) S&T Advances in 10 Years (2020) Resulting Capabilities in 20 Years (2030) Future U.S. Capabilities
Air Space Cyber Cross-Domain Air Space Cyber Cross-Domain
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AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
n Capability increases, manpower efficiencies,
and cost reductions are possible through far greater use of autonomous systems
n Increase in degree of autonomy and range of
systems and processes where autonomous reasoning and control can be applied
n Adaptive autonomy can offer time-domain
using human planning and decision loops
n S&T to establish “certifiable” trust in highly
adaptible autonomous systems is a key to enabling this transformation
n Potential adversaries may gain benefits from
fielding such systems without any burden of establishing certifiable “trust in autonomy”
n As one of the greatest beneficiaries of such
autonomous systems, the Air Force must lead in developing the underlying S&T basis
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AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
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AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
n UAS moving beyond traditional
surveillance and kinetic strike roles
n Longer-endurance missions require
high-efficiency engine technologies
n In-flight automated refueling will be
key for expanding UAS capabilities
n May include ISR functions beyond
traditional electro-optic surveillance
n LO may allow ops in contested or
denied (non-permissive) areas
n Electronic warfare (EW) by stand-in
jamming is a possible future role
n Wide-area airborne surveillance
(WAAS) is increasingly important
n Directed energy strike capability is
likely to grow (laser and HPM)
n Civil uses include border patrol and
interdiction, and humanitarian relief
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AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
n Aerial refueling of UAVs from USAF tanker fleet is
essential for increasing range and endurance
n Requires location sensing and relative navigation to
approach, hold, and move into fueling position
n Precision GPS can be employed to obtain needed
positional information
n Once UAV has autonomously flown into contact
position, boom operator engages as normal
n Key issues include position-keeping with possible
GPS obscuration by tanker and gust/wake stability
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AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
n August 2006 initial flight tests of AFRL-developed
control algorithms for automated aerial refueling
n KC-135 with Learjet-surrogate UAS platform gave
first “hands-off” approach to contact position
n Subsequent positions and pathways flight test and
four-ship CONOPS simulations successful
n 120 mins continuous “hands-off” station keeping
in contact position; approach from ½-mile away
n 12 hrs of “hands-off” formation flight with tanker
including autonomous position-holding in turns
n Position-holding matched human-piloted flight
n New unmanned aircraft systems (VULTURE)
and airships (ISIS) can remain aloft for years
n Delicate lightweight structures can survive
low-altitude winds if launch can be chosen
n Enabled by solar cells powering lightweight
batteries or regenerative fuel cell systems
n Large airships containing football field size
radars give extreme resolution/persistence
DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept
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AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
n Natural human capacities are becoming
increasingly mismatched to data volumes, processing capabilities, and decision speeds that are offered or demanded by technology
n S&T to augment human performance will be
needed to gain benefits of new technologies
n May come from increased use of autonomous
systems, improved man-machine interfaces,
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AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
n S&T advances are needed in three key areas
to enable increased freedom of operations in contested or denied environments
n Basic and early applied research are needed
to support development of these capabilities
n Technologies for increased cyber resilience
n e.g., massive virtualization, highly
polymorphic networks, agile hypervisors
n Technologies to augment or supplant PNT in
GPS-denied environments
n e.g., cold-atom (Bose-Einstein condensate)
INS systems, chip-scale atomic clocks
n Technologies to support dominance in
electromagnetic spectrum warfare
n e.g., dynamic spectrum access, spectral
mutability, advanced RF apertures
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AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
PCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines PCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small Satellites PCA30: Persistent Space Situational Awareness
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AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
USAF Chief Scientist Conducting ELLA Integration Assessment in B-1B AFA Presentation Public Releasable
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25 Jun 2011
n Laser-based directed energy systems approaching
n Distinction between tactical DE (e.g., ATL in C-130)
n Tactical-scale systems enabled ultra-low collateral
damage strike and airborne self-defense
n Technology path from COIL lasers to bulk solid
state (e.g., HELLADS) to fiber lasers to DPALs
n Demonstration path leads to airborne test (ELLA)
2012 2017 2010
General Atomics Textron
Unit Cells
North Oscura Peak (NOP) White Sands Missile Range ELLA Flight Demonstration
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AFA Presentation Public Releasable 25 Jun 2011
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Director, ¡Security ¡& ¡Defense ¡Systems ¡Ini5a5ve ¡ Arizona ¡State ¡University ¡
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Director, ¡Security ¡& ¡Defense ¡Systems ¡Ini5a5ve ¡ Arizona ¡State ¡University ¡ ¡ Werner.Dahm@asu.edu ¡ 480-‑727-‑8598 ¡ For ¡addi5onal ¡informa5on, ¡please ¡contact: ¡