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Technical and Cost Impacts of Technical and Cost Impacts of Integrating Renewables: Integrating Renewables: A Case Study for California A Case Study for California Lori Smith Schell, Ph.D., Empowered Energy Lori Smith Schell, Ph.D., Empowered

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Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011

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Technical and Cost Impacts of Technical and Cost Impacts of Integrating Renewables: Integrating Renewables: A Case Study for California A Case Study for California

Lori Smith Schell, Ph.D., Empowered Energy Lori Smith Schell, Ph.D., Empowered Energy Joshua D. Eichman, UC Joshua D. Eichman, UC-

  • Irvine

Irvine Fabian Mueller, Ph.D., UC Fabian Mueller, Ph.D., UC-

  • Irvine

Irvine 30 30th

th Annual USAEE/IAEE North American Conference

Annual USAEE/IAEE North American Conference Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. October 2011 October 2011

TM

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Motivation Motivation

  • California has the most aggressive Renewable

California has the most aggressive Renewable Portfolio Standard ( Portfolio Standard (“ “RPS RPS” ”) in the United States ) in the United States

  • Legislative mandate for 20% retail sales by 2010

Legislative mandate for 20% retail sales by 2010

  • California Senate Bill 107, 9/26/2006
  • Actually achieved 15-16% by 2010
  • Targeted 33% by 2020

Targeted 33% by 2020

  • Executive Order S-14-08, 11/17/2008
  • Legislative mandate for 33% retail sales by 2020

Legislative mandate for 33% retail sales by 2020

  • California Senate Bill X1 2, 4/12/2011

“With the amount of renewable resources coming on-line, and prices dropping, I think 40 percent, at reasonable cost, is well within our grasp in the near future.”

California Governor Edmund G. Brown, Jr.

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Operational Reality Operational Reality

  • Electrical grid must continually be balanced

Electrical grid must continually be balanced

  • A variety of generating resources are required
  • Each generating resource has a preferred duty cycle

Natural Gas Combustion Turbine Fuel Oil Combustion Turbine Hydroelectric Pumped Storage Natural Gas Combined Cycle Hydroelectric Natural Gas Steam Turbines Thermal Other Generation Geothermal Coal Fueled Steam Turbine Nuclear

–Load-following

Load-following Baseload Peaking

–Intermittent –Peaking –Baseload

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New Challenges to Balancing the Grid New Challenges to Balancing the Grid

  • Intermittent renewable resources present new

Intermittent renewable resources present new challenges to maintaining a balanced grid. challenges to maintaining a balanced grid.

  • As renewables penetration levels increase

As renewables penetration levels increase what is the best way to balance the grid? what is the best way to balance the grid?

Low Load High Wind Low Solar Low Load Low Wind Low Solar High Load Low Wind Low Solar

  • Dec. Load
  • Dec. Wind
  • Dec. Solar
  • Dec. Load
  • Inc. Wind
  • Dec. Solar
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More Renewables, More Challenges More Renewables, More Challenges

Performance, Cost, Economic Life, Role of Complementary Technologies Portfolio, Management, Operation and Integration Generation Portfolio and Management Cost and Performance Minimal Effects Cost and Performance

20% 33% 50% 100% 0% Increasing Renewable Penetration Level

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STREAM: Integrated Model Flowchart STREAM: Integrated Model Flowchart

Renewable Generation Module Dispatchable Load Module

Renewable Generation Profile Electric Load Profile Gen Size Efficiency Operation Parameters Fuel Use Number of Generators Energy Generated

Cost of Generation Module Levelized Cost Of Electricity (“LCOE”) Balance Generation Module

Power & Energy

  • f Renewables

Dispatched Load Profile Energy Transmitted or Curtailed

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STREAM Model: Cost Module STREAM Model: Cost Module

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STREAM Model: Preliminary Results STREAM Model: Preliminary Results

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Higher Capacity, Lower Capacity Factors Higher Capacity, Lower Capacity Factors

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Lower Capacity Factors, Higher LCOE Lower Capacity Factors, Higher LCOE

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Preliminary Generation Portfolio LCOE Preliminary Generation Portfolio LCOE

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More Renewables, More Challenges More Renewables, More Challenges

Performance, Cost, Economic Life, Role of Complementary Technologies Portfolio, Management, Operation and Integration Generation Portfolio and Management Cost and Performance Minimal Effects Cost and Performance

20% 33% 50% 100% 0% Increasing Renewable Penetration Level

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Need for Complementary Technologies Need for Complementary Technologies

  • Preliminary findings demonstrate increased role of

Preliminary findings demonstrate increased role of complementary technologies as renewable complementary technologies as renewable penetration levels increase penetration levels increase

  • Complementary Technologies initially considered

Complementary Technologies initially considered in STREAM model will include: in STREAM model will include:

  • Demand Response (“DR”) Measures

– Peak Shaving – Load Shifting

  • Energy Storage

– Pumped Hydro – Compressed Air Energy Storage – Flow Batteries

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Demand Response Services Demand Response Services

  • What grid-related services can DR provide?

Peak Peak shaving shaving Energy shift Energy shifting ng Reserve margin Reserve margin

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  • Response magnitude

Response magnitude

  • Sustained response period

Sustained response period

  • Reserve margin: ~ 15-30 min
  • Peak shaving: up to 6 hrs
  • Energy shifting: hrs to days
  • Ramp period

Ramp period

  • Recovery behavior

Recovery behavior

  • Recovery period
  • Occupant impact

Occupant impact

DR Evaluation Metrics DR Evaluation Metrics

Reduction magnitude Response period Ramp time Recovery behavior

Occupant impact Occupant impact

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Energy Storage Services Energy Storage Services

  • Benefit: Shifts energy from high

Benefit: Shifts energy from high-

  • demand to low

demand to low-

  • demand periods

demand periods

  • Cost: Round

Cost: Round-

  • trip efficiency penalty may be high

trip efficiency penalty may be high

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STREAM Model: Energy Storage Module STREAM Model: Energy Storage Module

  • Energy Storage

Energy Storage

  • Operational parameter inputs:

– Efficiency – Ramp Rate – Power Capacity – Energy Capacity

  • Must calculate cost uniquely

for input parameters

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Conclusions Conclusions

  • A model to explore various renewable penetrations

A model to explore various renewable penetrations for California has been developed and verified for California has been developed and verified

  • Importance of renewables integration and

Importance of renewables integration and management increases with renewables management increases with renewables penetration level penetration level

  • Complementary technologies are required for high

Complementary technologies are required for high renewable penetration levels renewable penetration levels

  • Continued research needed

Continued research needed

  • Running various renewable penetration scenarios
  • Enabling renewable cost minimization
  • Exploring the resulting portfolio generation and cost

vectors

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Future Plans Future Plans

  • Impose an explicit renewable curtailment penalty

Impose an explicit renewable curtailment penalty

  • Capacity factor penalty implicit in current model
  • Include electric vehicles for energy storage

Include electric vehicles for energy storage

  • Value ability to control timing of charging
  • Include hydrogen production for energy storage

Include hydrogen production for energy storage

  • Grid-driven

– Produce as much hydrogen as warranted by grid benefits – Possible driver for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

  • Demand-driven

– As hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fleet size increases