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TECHNICAL ADVISORY GROUP Inaugural Meeting March 24, 2017 Princeton University, New Jersey Agenda Introduction of the Technical Advisory Group Members ICP Governance Framework and Terms of Reference of the Technical Advisory Group


  1. TECHNICAL ADVISORY GROUP Inaugural Meeting March 24, 2017 Princeton University, New Jersey

  2. Agenda � Introduction of the Technical Advisory Group Members � ICP Governance Framework and Terms of Reference of the Technical Advisory Group � New ICP Approach and the 2017 Comparison Cycle � ICP Research Agenda � Setting up ICP Task Forces 2

  3. TECHNICAL ADVISORY GROUP (TAG) MEMBERS 3

  4. TAG Members � ALAN HESTON , Professor Emeritus, University of Pennsylvania, Co-founder of the ICP � ANA REVENGA, Deputy Chief Economist of the World Bank � SIR ANGUS DEATON, 2015 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics, Princeton University [Chair] � D. PRASADA RAO, Professor, University of Queensland � PAUL SCHREYER, Deputy Chief Statistician of the OECD [ Alternate Chair] 4

  5. TAG Members � PRONAB SEN, former Chief Statistician of India � ROBERT C. FEENSTRA, Professor, University of California – Davis � W. ERWIN DIEWERT, Professor, University of British Columbia � WALTER RADERMACHER, former Chief Statistician of the EU & Germany � XIANCHUN XU, former Deputy Commissioner of NBS China 5

  6. ICP GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK AND TAG TERMS OF REFERENCE 6

  7. ICP Governance Framework GIA = Global Implementing Agency, RIA = Regional Implementing Agency, NIA = National Implementing Agency

  8. Governing Board � Strategic and policy-making body � Approves methodology � Sets policies and protocols for PPP production � Ensures that ICP results are consistent with agreed policies, protocols and methodology � Advocates, conducts outreach, promotes openness, raises funding 8

  9. Inter-Agency Coordination Group � Coordinating body for program implementation � Establishes data collection, validation, calculation and dissemination work plans � Develops common standards and protocols to ensure comparability across regions and countries � Provides quality assurance standards that national and regional data and metadata must satisfy to be included in the global PPP estimates 9

  10. World Bank Global ICP Unit � Coordinates and manages the ICP globally � Provides secretariat functions for governance bodies � Calculates and disseminates global results � Delivers technical support to regions � Implements the ICP dissemination and access policy 10

  11. Regional Implementing Agencies* � Coordinate and manage regional comparisons/ Eurostat-OECD program � Carry out regional capacity-building and technical assistance activities � Ensure adequate national and regional data and metadata quality as per the agreed standards � Calculate and disseminate regional results * and Eurostat and OECD 11

  12. National Implementing Agencies � Conduct country activities � Collect and compile the data and metadata required for estimating PPPs � Ensure adequate national data and metadata quality per the agreed standards 12

  13. TAG � Technical body � Assures methodological soundness and overall quality of the PPP estimates � Ensures transparency of the PPP estimation process � Supports the establishment of a permanent and more frequent ICP � The TAG, in collaboration with IACG, sets the ICP research agenda � The TAG establishes Task Forces to undertake research into specific technical issues on the research agenda and support the computation of ICP results. 13

  14. TAG Work Modality � TAG holds regular annual meetings to • Discuss Task Forces’ proposals on methodological improvements under the research agenda • Review the overall quality of PPP estimates � Ad-hoc meetings may be organized, if need arises � The Global ICP Unit serves as TAG secretariat 14

  15. NEW ICP APPROACH AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 2017 COMPARISON CYCLE 15

  16. Aspiration: Rolling Survey Approach � Spreads the price data collection over 3 years, in order to ease the burden on countries for any given calendar year � Allows regions the flexibility to conduct surveys according to their specific circumstances � Designed to make comparisons using a mix of actual and extrapolated data that have been collected over 3 years 16

  17. Interim ICP Activities � Keep ICP momentum through interim regional comparisons • Asia 2015/2016 • CIS 2014 • Western Asia 2016 (plus results for 2012/2013) • Eurostat-OECD regular PPP program � Maintain capacity through multiple regional workshops and E-learning course (underway) � Increase outreach through seminars, website, video tutorials, papers, leaflets, blogs, and newsletters 17

  18. ICP Timetable 2016-2018 � Conduct new ICP surveys � Incorporate interim surveys conducted in 2016, where possible End 2019 � Link results of interim regional exercises conducted during 2012-2016 and produce global PPP time series � Publish ICP 2017 results 2020 and beyond � Implement gradually the rolling survey approach to produce results every three years 18

  19. ICP 2017 Cycle ICP 2017 Cycle 2016 2017 2018 2019 Household consumption X => X < = X Housing volume and rentals X < = X PUBLICATION Government compensation X < = X Machinery and equipment X < = X Construction and civil engineering X < = X CPIs, PPIs and national account deflators X X X National account expenditures X X X 19

  20. Future ICP Cycles ICP 2020 Cycle ICP 2023 Cycle 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025 Household consumption X=> X <=X X=> X <=X PUBLICATION OF 2020 RESULTS PUBLICATION OF 2023 RESULTS Housing volume and rentals X X Government compensation X X Machinery and equipment X X Construction and civil engineering X X CPIs, PPIs and national account X X X X X X deflators National account expenditures X X X X X X 20

  21. ICP RESEARCH AGENDA CONTEXT 21

  22. Background � The last half-century has seen the ICP grow into a global statistical program � Each round of ICP has increased country participation, and improved the methods and governance of the program � ICP has reached a stage where it needs to identify its future direction and sustainability 22

  23. Opportunities � United Nations mandate • “A truly permanent global program” � Stable home • Global ICP Unit at the World Bank � Opportunity to modernize, innovate and improve • Data revolution 23

  24. Challenges � Establishing ICP within the work program of the global, regional and national implementing agencies and securing sustainable funding � Conducting frequent and regular cycles of ICP through the introduction of a rolling survey approach � Ensuring the quality, reliability and consistency of PPPs 24

  25. Consultations � IACG • Second meeting, Washington DC (September 2016) � Experts • Meeting in MIT, Boston (May 2016) • World Bank management and experts (March 2017) � Countries • Various regional workshops and events (2016-2017) 25

  26. Research Agenda � Focus on methodological aspects related to building PPP time series and fine-tuning established methods and procedures to improve quality � Innovations as a cross-cutting theme to ensure that new approaches, technologies, and data sources are utilized in the production of PPPs � Suggested Research Agenda includes: • Immediate term items • Medium term items • Ongoing and longer term items 26

  27. RESEARCH AGENDA FOR THE IMMEDIATE TERM 27

  28. I. PPP Time Series & Rolling Survey Approach � Issue: Extrapolations of PPPs at the aggregate level over long periods intervening the benchmark comparisons, coupled with major methodological changes between benchmarks, limit the ability to reconcile extrapolations from different benchmarks. � Three components: a. Moving Towards Rolling Price Surveys b. Linking Interim Regional Updates into a Global Comparison c. Building PPP Time Series for the Interim Period 28

  29. I.a. Moving Towards Rolling Price Surveys AREAS TO EXAMINE � Determine the frequency of data collection for the rolling survey for each aggregate of the GDP � Assess availability and quality of national account deflators, CPIs and other price indices to be used in extrapolation to the reference year � Determine how to link PPPs from regions with different timetables for data collection � Assess methods of extrapolating PPPs for the two years between individual benchmarks, before the full rolling survey approach is implemented 29

  30. I.b. Linking Interim Regional Updates AREAS TO EXAMINE � Effect of different timing of regional interim surveys � Impact of different degrees of coverage of the GDP � Effect of changing regional composition and of countries not participating in regional interim updates � Effect of discrepancies in global core list coverage by region on linking � Effect of methodological differences between regions on linking 30

  31. I.c. Building “Interim” PPP Time Series AREAS TO EXAMINE � Assess availability and quality of national account deflators, CPIs and other price indices by GDP component � Examine consistency of CPI weights and national account weights, and assess the weights’ effects on PPPs � Suggest steps for statistical capacity-building to ensure that CPIs and national account deflators are consistent over time and comparable across countries � Ensure consistency between the 2011 and 2017 results and the comparisons for the intervening years 31

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