Tacoma Power Energy Risk Management/Power Supply Update Q12020 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Tacoma Power

Energy Risk Management/Power Supply Update – Q1’2020

Ying Hall Energy Risk Manager Todd Lloyd Assistant Power Manager, Resource Operations & Trading May 27, 2020

Section 1

Power Supply

3

Power Supply Update

Graph 1: Tacoma System Inflows

(Tacoma System Hydro Inflows, Water Year 1929 – 2020)

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Inflows (cfs)

5th-95th Percentile Adverse Average 2020 2020 Projection

4

Power Supply Update

Graph 2: Federal System Inflows

(Federal System Hydro Inflows, Water Year 1961 – 2020)

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Inflows (KAF)

5th-95th Percentile Average 2020 2020 Projection

5

Power Supply Update

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Inflows (cfs) Adverse Average 1929 - 2019

2009 2010 2014 2012 2013 2011 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020

2020

2019

Graph 3: WY 2020 Tacoma System Inflows

(Tacoma System Inflows Annual Avg., Water Year 1929 – 2020)

6

Power Supply Update

Graph 4: Cowlitz Hydroelectric Project’s Elevation

(Cowlitz Elevation, Current vs. Historic)

640 660 680 700 720 740 760 780

Cowlitz Elevation (ft)

New "Full" (Seismic Limit) Full 2020 Historic Range Projection

7

Power Supply Update

Graph 5: Cushman Hydroelectric Project Elevation

(Cushman Elevation, Current vs. Historic)

690.0 695.0 700.0 705.0 710.0 715.0 720.0 725.0 730.0 735.0 740.0 1/1/2020 2/1/2020 3/1/2020 4/1/2020 5/1/2020 6/1/2020 7/1/2020

Lake Cushman Elevation (ft)

Maximum Allowed Elevation (2020) 2020

735 ft

Full Historic Range Historic Average

8

• 300
• 200
• 100

100 200 300 400 500 600 Jan-2019 Feb-2019 Mar-2019 Apr-2019 May-2019 Jun-2019 Jul-2019 Aug-2019 Sep-2019 Oct-2019 Nov-2019 Dec-2019 Jan-2020 Feb-2020 Mar-2020 Apr-2020 May-2020 Jun-2020 Jul-2020 Aug-2020 Sep-2020 Oct-2020 Nov-2020 Dec-2020

aMW

Actual Sales Budget Sales Actual Purchases Budget Purchases

Power Supply Update

Graph 6: Actual versus Budgeted Sales and Purchase Volumes

Section 2

Wholesale Net Revenues

10

Wholesale Net Revenues

Graph 7: Actual Revenue is $26M Below Budget Biennium-To-Date

(Monthly Actual vs. Budget Wholesale Purchases and Net Revenues)

• $4.00
• $2.00

$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20

Dollars (in Millions)

Actual Purchases Budget Purchases Actual Net Revenue Budget Net Revenue

11

Wholesale Net Revenues

Graph 8: Lower Load Expected Due to Stay-At-Home, Recession

(Moderate Recession Load Scenario)

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Load (aMW)

Previous Load Forecast Load Scenario - Moderate Recession

12

$79.3 $57.9 $106.1 $64.55 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Dollars (in Millions)

Budget Net Revenue (Adverse Water) Net Revenue Projection (Adverse Water) Net Revenue Projection (Expected Water) - 1/1 Net Revenue Projection (Expected Water) - 5/14 Actuals

Wholesale Net Revenues

Graph 9: High Q1 Revenues, Projections Remain Below Budget

(Cumulative Actual vs. Budget Wholesale Net Revenues, 2019 – 2020)

Expected Water (as of

• Jan. 1)

Expected Water (Current) Adverse Water (Budget) Adverse Water (Current)

13

Wholesale Net Revenues

Graph 10: Probability of Making Budget Has Increased to 13%

(Risk Model Simulation of Biennial Net Revenues, 2019 – 2020)

Wholesale Net Revenue (Million Dollars) Density 10 20 30 40 40 60 80 100 120 Biennium Budget $79.3M 5% $48.6M Mean $64.5M 95% $89.6M

13% probability of exceeding the biennium budget of $79.3M