Survey Conducted March 9-14, 2016 220-4366 Methodology 600 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Survey Conducted March 9-14, 2016 220-4366 Methodology 600 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Survey Conducted March 9-14, 2016 220-4366 Methodology 600 telephone interviews with likely November 2016 voters in San Juan Unified School District Interviews conducted March 9-14, 2016 Interviews in English and Spanish, and on


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Survey Conducted March 9-14, 2016

220-4366

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Methodology

  • 600 telephone interviews with likely November

2016 voters in San Juan Unified School District

  • Interviews conducted March 9-14, 2016
  • Interviews in English and Spanish, and on

landlines and cell phones

  • Margin of sampling error of +/- 4.0% at the

95% confidence level

  • Some percentages may not sum to 100% due to

rounding

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Nearly eight in ten are familiar with the school district.

Yes, very familiar 44% Yes, somewhat familiar 35% No 19% DK/NA 2% Are you familiar with the San Juan Unified School District?

Total Yes 79%

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Significant percentages need more information about local schools’ performance.

Excellent/ Pretty Good

42% 41% 24% I am going to read you a list of organizations and individuals. Please tell me if you think the organization or individual is doing an excellent job, a pretty good job, only a fair job, or a poor job.

7% 9% 34% 33% 21% 23% 17% 19% 13% 11% 12%

23% 31% 44%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

The San Juan Unified School District Your neighborhood school The San Juan Unified School District Board of Trustees

Excellent Pretty Good Only Fair Poor NHO/DK/NA

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Two-thirds think the school district is in need of additional funding.

37% 29% 7% 11% 16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Great need Some need Little need No real need Don't know/NA Great/ Some Need 66% Generally speaking, would you say that the San Juan Unified School District has a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funding? Little/ No Real Need 18%

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Here is a list of statements about your local schools. After I read each one, please tell me if you agree or disagree.

Respondents agree that San Juan USD schools are safe, but believe schools are in need of repair.

Total Agree

62% 61% 47% 69% 44% 46% 39% 26% 34%

37% 35% 32% 29% 26% 25% 21% 15% 12% 26% 26% 16% 40% 18% 21% 17% 12% 22% 10% 12% 9% 8% 8% 15% 19%

6%

10% 8% 11%

5%

6%

18% 12% 15%

7%

20% 19% 16% 39% 17% 29% 26% 27% 62% 35%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Gangs and drugs are problems in our local schools. My neighborhood schools are aging, deteriorating, run down, and in need of repair. District funds are not shared equally among our neighborhood schools. San Juan public schools are safe for students. Our schools and classrooms lack access to up-to-date technology. The San Juan Unified School District has a difficult time attracting and retaining quality teachers. San Juan Unified School District has passed a bond measure within the past few years. San Juan Unified School District finances are generally well-managed.

  • Strng. Agr.
  • Smwt. Agr.
  • Smwt. Disagr.
  • Strng. Disagr.

DK/NA

District funds are distributed equally so that all students have equal access to computers, science labs, and libraries.

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If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?

Conceptual Ballot Question Tested

SAN JUAN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT CLASSROOM REPAIR/STUDENT SAFETY MEASURE. To repair/upgrade all schools by repairing aging classrooms, leaky roofs, electrical wiring and deteriorating restrooms/plumbing; upgrading classroom technology, math/science/computer labs, fire safety/security systems; removing asbestos/lead paint; and repairing, constructing, and acquiring educational facilities/equipment, shall the San Juan Unified School District issue $600 million in bonds at legal rates, requiring independent financial audits, citizens’

  • versight, no money for administrators’ salaries and

pensions and keeping all funds local?

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42% 24% 4% 2% 7% 14% 7%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Definitely yes Probably yes Undecided, lean yes Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no Undecided

Total Yes 70% Total No 23%

Seventy percent of voters support a 55% requirement bond of up to $600M.

If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?

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If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?

The bond carries across genders.

0% 55%

Men Women

Total Yes Total No Undecided

Initial Support by Gender

(% of Sample) (48%) (52%)

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If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?

The bond carries among all age groups.

0% 55%

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75+ 18-49 50+ 65+

Total Yes Total No Undecided

Initial Support by Age

(% of Sample) (14%) (9%) (11%) (32%) (17%) (66%) (34%) (16%) (34%)

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If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?

The bond receives bipartisan support.

0% 55%

Democrats Independents Republicans

Total Yes Total No Undecided

Initial Support by Party

(% of Sample) (38%) (41%) (21%)

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If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?

There is no difference in support among voters who have children and those who do not.

0% 55%

Yes No/DK/NA

Total Yes Total No Undecided

Initial Support by Children at Home

(% of Sample) (24%) (76%)

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If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?

Support is strong among those with children in San Juan USD schools and those with kids in other schools.

0% 55%

San Juan USD Elementary School San Juan USD Middle School San Juan USD High School Total San Juan USD Other/DK/NA/ Refused

Total Yes Total No Undecided

Initial Support by School Attendance

(% of Sample) (12%) (18%) (5%) (8%) (8%)

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If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?

The measure receives strong support across all ethnicities.

0% 55%

Latinos Whites Voters of Color

Total Yes Total No Undecided

Initial Support by Ethnicity

(% of Sample) (7%) (16%) (79%)

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If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?

The measure receives strong support across all geographic lines.

0% 55%

Citrus Heights Sacramento/Folsom Unincorporated

Total Yes Total No Undecided

Initial Support by City

(% of Sample) (22%) (75%) (3%)

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Respondents support a potential $600M bond at higher rates than lower bond amounts.

Total Yes Total No 67% 26% 65% 27% If the San Juan Unified School District bond measure that I just described to you was for _________, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it? 41% 41% 25% 24% 9% 10% 16% 16% 7% 8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

$500 million $400 million

  • Def. Yes

Prob./Und., Lean Yes Prob./Und., Lean No

  • Def. No

DK/NA

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I am going to read you a list of types of projects…. Please tell me how important each is to you: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important.

Ext./Very Impt.

83% 83% 83% 74% 72% 75% 75% 73% 71%

43% 40% 40% 40% 37% 36% 36% 32% 32% 40% 43% 43% 35% 35% 39% 39% 41% 39% 9% 12% 11% 11% 17% 15% 12% 18% 21%

5%

12%

7% 7% 7% 6%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Retaining and attracting high-quality teachers Repairing leaky roofs Improving education for all students Removing asbestos and lead paint Repairing aging water pipes and drinking fountains Upgrading fire safety and school security systems Requiring all funds stay local Requiring annual, independent financial audits Repairing electrical wiring and Internet wiring

  • Ext. Impt.

Very Impt.

  • Smwt. Impt.

Not Too Impt. DK/NA

Teacher retention, high quality education, asbestos and lead paint removal, and leaky roof repairs are the most important funding priorities.

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I am going to read you a list of types of projects…. Please tell me how important each is to you: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. Split Sample

Repairing plumbing and upgrading fire safety are also of high importance.

Ext./Very Impt.

72% 72% 66% 69% 70% 68% 62% 57% 65% 60%

32% 31% 31% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 28% 28% 39% 40% 35% 40% 40% 38% 32% 26% 37% 32% 18% 15% 22% 18% 18% 24% 24% 18% 21% 26%

6%

8% 10% 8%

5%

9% 18% 10% 9%

6% 6%

5%

8%

5% 5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Repairing plumbing Upgrading fire safety systems Repairing aging classrooms Repairing deteriorating restrooms Upgrading math, science, and computer labs Improving vocational and career education classrooms Upgrading classroom technology Providing no money for administrators’ salaries

  • r pensions

Upgrading heating and air conditioning systems Ensuring all schools and classrooms meet California earthquake standards

  • Ext. Impt.

Very Impt.

  • Smwt. Impt.

Not Too Impt. DK/NA

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47% 30% 23%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Repairing existing schools so they are more modern and efficient, without incurring the costs and time delays of brand-new construction Replacing schools with new buildings equipped for today’s educational needs, which can cost less than repairing and maintaining aging school buildings and infrastructure Both/Neither/Don't know/NA

As you may know, most San Juan USD schools are at least 50 years old and in need of significant improvements. I am going to read you two statements about how to deal with this issue. Please tell me which comes closest to your way of thinking for the best approach for improving San Juan USD schools.

OR

A plurality favors repairing schools rather than building new ones.

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Q5/Q12/Q14. If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?

Support for the measure remains consistently strong after messaging.

70% 70% 67% 23% 25% 28% 7% 5% 5%

0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90%

First Vote Second Vote Third Vote

Total Yes Total No Undecided

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Messages

(ACCOUNTABILITY) [A] measure is subject to strict accountability requirements, including independent annual financial audits, review of all spending by a citizens’ oversight committee, and no funding can be used for administrators’ salaries or pensions. By law, all funds are required to be spent locally to improve neighborhood schools, and none of this money can be taken away by Sacramento politicians. (REPAIRS) Many local schools are over 60 years old and in need of significant repairs. A recent report showed that we have as much as $2 billion in need. Passing this measure will enable schools to fix deteriorating classrooms, leaky roofs, water pipes, plumbing, bathrooms, and electrical wiring; remove asbestos and lead paint; and replace outdated security and fire safety systems so children can learn in safe, healthy classrooms. (PROPERTY VALUES) [A potential bond] measure is a good long-term investment. Improving neighborhood schools strengthens local property values, and makes our community a more desirable place to live, do business, and raise a family. (NEXT GENERATION LEARNING) This [potential] local school bond measure will upgrade schools to meet twenty-first century academic standards. Funds will be used to provide students with equal access to clean, safe, and up-to-date classrooms, science labs, computer technology, and vocational and career education programs that prepare students for college and the workforce.

Messages About a Potential Bond and School Needs

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Messages

(MATCHING FUNDS) Passing this measure will ensure that local schools have access to state matching funds and allow them to take advantage of funds that would otherwise go to other districts. (SECURITY) This bond measure will make our schools safer. By improving school security and emergency communication systems, installing more security cameras and alarms, and improving emergency lighting and fencing, this measure will allow us to make essential security upgrades necessary to provide our children with safe learning environments, and to keep intruders out. (TEACHERS) Quality classrooms and good teachers are essential to classroom education. This measure will improve the quality of education for every student, and help attract and retain quality teachers by improving classrooms and teaching environments. (SECURITY #2) It seems like every day we hear about acts of violence in schools and public places across

  • America. We need to make our schools a place that our children can grow, play, and learn safely. This bond

measure will improve school security and emergency communication systems, install more security cameras and alarms, and improve emergency lighting and fencing essential to providing our children with safe learning environments, and to keeping intruders out. (WATER) California’s drought has made conserving water more important than ever. This bond will help the San Juan Unified School District use water more efficiently, including upgrading water conservation systems and repairing drinking fountains and water pipes, which saves money and protects our water supply.

Messages About a Potential Bond and School Needs

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50% 46% 45% 42% 40% 38% 37% 36% 29% 23% 30% 32% 34% 28% 35% 35% 33% 32%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Accountability Repairs Property Values Next Generation Learning Matching Funds Security Teachers Security #2 Water

Very Conv.

  • Smwt. Conv.

73%

Information about accountability, repairing schools, and improving property values resonate.

61% 69% 71% 73% 76% 77% 76% 68%

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Total Bel.

74% 65% 56% 56% 52% 53% 46% 58% 49% 52% 45% 44%

41% 31% 27% 22% 19% 18% 15% 14% 14% 13% 12%

8%

33% 35% 29% 34% 33% 35% 30% 43% 35% 39% 33% 36%

8% 10%

5%

10%

18% 17%

9%

14% 12% 14% 16% 18%

6%

7%

11% 18% 20% 20% 14%

10%

14% 13% 12% 22%

10%

5%

18%

9%

11%

8% 14% 18% 12% 7% 8% 14% 14% 17% 17% 16% 14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Your local school teachers Your local Parent-Teacher Association, or PTA The principal of your local school The local teachers’ union Local TV stations San Juan Unified School District Superintendent Kent Kern Your local Chamber of Commerce Local faith leaders San Juan Unified School District Board of Trustees Your local taxpayers’ association Local elected officials

Very Bel.

  • Smwt. Bel.

Not Too Bel. Not at All Bel. NHO No Opin.

Messengers who are connected to the schools are the most trusted messengers.

The Sacramento Bee newspaper

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  • The proposed San Juan Unified School District Classroom

Repair/Student Safety Measure is definitely viable for November 2016.

  • Seven in ten voters say they would vote “yes” on the measure, exceeding

the 55% threshold for passage.

  • Support cuts across all major demographics, including gender, age,

ethnicity, and party.

  • Voters prioritize retaining quality teachers, high quality

education, and removing asbestos and lead paint.

  • Many

voters are unfamiliar with the school district’s performance, providing a public education opportunity.

  • Messages related to accountability, repairing schools, property values, and

providing next generation learning are helpful.

Conclusions

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For more information, contact:

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