Summary of Results Survey Conducted: April 9-18, 2016 CONSULTANT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Summary of Results Survey Conducted: April 9-18, 2016 CONSULTANT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Summary of Results Survey Conducted: April 9-18, 2016 CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 220-4333 Results of interviews with 600 voters in Fresno Unified School District who are likely to cast ballots


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Survey Conducted: April 9-18, 2016

220-4333

Summary of Results

CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254

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CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254

  • Results
  • f

interviews with 600 voters in Fresno Unified School District who are likely to cast ballots in the June 2016 Presidential primary election

  • Interviews conducted April 9-18, 2016
  • Interviews conducted on landline and cell phones
  • Interviews conducted in English and Spanish
  • Margin of sampling error of +/- 4.0% for the full

sample

  • Due to rounding, not all percentages sum to 100%
  • Previous survey results are shown for comparison

purposes

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CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254

47% 45% 42% 37% 42% 41% 43% 33% 35% 42% 33% 37% 31% 26% 33% 35%

5%

10% 13% 7% 11% 9% 11%

5%

8%

6% 6%

9% 9% 11% 9%

5% 6% 6%

14% 13%

6%

10%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2016 2010 2016 2010 2016 2010 2016 2010

Very Acc.

  • Smwt. Acc.
  • Smwt. Inacc.

Very Inacc. DK/NA

Voters are aware of significant challenges facing Fresno Unified schools – particularly their physical condition.

  • Q8. I would like to read you some statements about local public education and schools in your community. Please tell me if you think

each of the following statements is accurate or inaccurate. ^Not Part of Split Sample

Repairing and upgrading neighborhood schools helps maintain local property values ^Many of our local schools are

  • ld, deteriorating and in need of

repair Many neighborhood schools are

  • vercrowded

Repairing and upgrading neighborhood schools creates good-paying local jobs

Total Acc. Total Inacc. 82% 8% 87% 8% 75% 19% 74% 19% 73% 13% 67% 20% 76% 18% 68% 22%

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43% 25% 8% 15% 9%

0% 15% 30% 45% 60%

Great need Some need A little need No real need Don't know/NA

Great/Some Need 67% A Little/ No Real Need 23%

Generally speaking, would you say that the Fresno Unified School District has a great need for more money, some need, a little need, or no real need for more money?

Two-thirds think Fresno Unified has a significant needs for funds, with more than four in ten describe this need as “great.”

Q3.

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THE CLASSROOM EDUCATION, NEIGHBORHOOD SCHOOL REPAIR AND STUDENT SAFETY MEASURE. To upgrade schools in every community by:

  • Improving classrooms, libraries, technology, and career/technical

education;

  • Improving electrical wiring, heating/air conditioning, fire safety

systems;

  • Replacing outdated portables;
  • Removing asbestos;
  • Increasing water conservation/energy efficiency; and
  • Repairing/constructing/acquiring facilities/equipment,

Shall Fresno Unified School District issue (HALF SAMPLE: $225 million) (HALF SAMPLE: $500 million) in bonds, at legal rates, requiring audits, no money for Sacramento, no money for administrators’ salaries/pensions, all funds used locally?

  • Q4. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure?

Ballot Language Tested

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43% 25% 5% 2% 6% 13% 6%

0% 15% 30% 45% 60%

Total Yes 74% Total No 20%

Q4 (Split Sample). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure?

There is support for both versions, but the hard vote for the $225 million bond is stronger with 43% voting “definitely” yes.

68%

Definitely yes Probably yes Undecided, lean yes Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no Undecided 34% 27% 6% 1% 7% 18% 6%

0% 15% 30% 45% 60%

Total Yes 67% Total No 27%

61% $225 Million: Maintain Tax Rate $500 Million: Increase Tax Rate

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Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure?

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Great Need Some Need Great/ Some Need Little/ No Real Need DK/NA

Total Yes Total No Undecided

(% of Sample) (43%) (67%) (23%)

Initial Combined Vote by Need for Funding

Perception of need is highly correlated with voting in favor of a Fresno Unified bond measure.

(25%) (9%)

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Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure?

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Men Women

Total Yes Total No Undecided

(% of Sample) (46%) (54%)

Initial Combined Vote by Gender

There is not a significant gender gap…

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Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure?

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Democrats Independents Republicans

Total Yes Total No Undecided

(% of Sample) (48%) (20%) (32%)

Initial Combined Vote by Party

…but there is a 23-point difference between Democrats and Republicans.

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Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure?

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75+ 18-49 50+ 65+

Total Yes Total No Undecided

(% of Sample) (18%) (14%) (44%)

Initial Combined Vote by Age

(14%) (12%) (27%) (55%)

There is solid support for a Fresno Unified bond regardless of age.

(28%) (14%)

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Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure?

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Latinos Whites Voters of Color

Total Yes Total No Undecided

(% of Sample) (30%) (54%) (43%)

Initial Combined Vote by Ethnicity

Eight in ten Latinos vote yes to approve the bond measure, and two-thirds of white voters support it.

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Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure?

Initial Combined Vote by School Board Member District

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Total Yes Total No Undecided

(% of Sample) (10%) (17%) (18%) (8%) (12%) (12%) (25%)

Two-thirds or more vote yes to approve a bond in six of the seven Trustee Districts.

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40% 39% 41% 36% 30% 36% 30% 35% 33% 46% 42% 45% 39% 40% 40% 37% 12% 9% 12% 14% 18% 14% 20% 20%

15%

6%

5%

13% 11% 9% 8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2016 2010 2016 2010 2016 2010

  • Ext. Impt.

Very Impt.

  • Smwt. Impt.

Not Too Impt./DK/NA

Ext./Very Impt.

73% 85% 83% 81% 69% 75% 77% 72%

Voters identify a number of basic health and safety repairs to Fresno Unified schools.

  • Q11. I am going to read you some of the projects, improvements and provisions that might be included in this school bond measure.

Please tell me how important it is to you that each project, improvement and provision be included: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. Split Sample

Upgrading security cameras, lighting, gates and fencing Removing lead paint and asbestos from schools Retaining and attracting qualified teachers Fixing deteriorating restrooms and plumbing systems Meeting handicap accessibility requirements

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35% 31% 33% 32% 33% 32% 34% 36% 37% 45% 35% 43% 46% 39% 18% 21% 16% 22% 18% 14% 18% 10% 11%

5%

10%

6%

7%

10%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2016 2010 2016 2010 2016 2010

  • Ext. Impt.

Very Impt.

  • Smwt. Impt.

Not Too Impt./DK/NA

Ext./Very Impt. 72% 68% 78% 67% 76% 78% 73%

Uses of Fresno Unified Bond Measure Funds, continued

  • Q11. I am going to read you some of the projects, improvements and provisions that might be included in this school bond measure.

Please tell me how important it is to you that each project, improvement and provision be included: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. Split Sample

Building and upgrading career/ technical education classrooms, technology and equipment Upgrading outdated classroom technology and computers Replacing outdated heating, air conditioning and ventilation systems to increase energy efficiency Building and upgrading vocational education classrooms, technology and equipment

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31% 31% 29% 28% 22% 28% 39% 40% 43% 37% 29% 33% 20% 17% 15% 16% 29% 22% 9% 12% 13% 19% 20% 17%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Upgrading electrical systems and wiring for computer technology and Internet access Upgrading fire and security alarms, safety doors and sprinkler systems Improving emergency communication systems in neighborhood schools 2016 2010 Retrofitting classrooms and schools to meet earthquake safety standards

  • Ext. Impt.

Very Impt.

  • Smwt. Impt.

Not Too Impt./DK/NA

Ext./Very Impt. 71% 71% 72% 65% 51% 61%

Uses of Fresno Unified Bond Measure Funds, continued

  • Q11. I am going to read you some of the projects, improvements and provisions that might be included in this school bond measure.

Please tell me how important it is to you that each project, improvement and provision be included: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. Split Sample

Improving water conservation by upgrading school campus irrigation systems

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28% 24% 27% 25% 24% 37% 37% 39% 41% 40% 22% 22% 24% 25% 20% 12% 17% 10% 9% 16%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2016 2010 Improving school libraries Maintaining playgrounds and green spaces for physical education, athletics, and recreational use Creating new elementary school libraries

  • Ext. Impt.

Very Impt.

  • Smwt. Impt.

Not Too Impt./DK/NA

Ext./Very Impt. 65% 61% 66% 66% 64%

Uses of Fresno Unified Bond Measure Funds, continued

  • Q11. I am going to read you some of the projects, improvements and provisions that might be included in this school bond measure.

Please tell me how important it is to you that each project, improvement and provision be included: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. Split Sample

Building new science labs

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  • Q12. I’m going to read some statements from supporters of THE CLASSROOM EDUCATION, NEIGHBORHOOD SCHOOL REPAIR

AND STUDENT SAFETY MEASURE. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote yes on this ballot measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample

Using bond funds to upgrade classroom technology, repair schools and improve career education programs resonate deeply with Fresno Unified voters.

51% 49% 48% 35% 33% 32%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Very Conv.

  • Smwt. Conv.

(TECHNOLOGY) Today’s competitive global economy requires students have a good education in technology. This bond measure will upgrade science and computer labs, libraries, and classroom technology, so students can learn the vital skills needed to go to college or compete for good jobs. ^(REPAIRS) Many Fresno Unified schools were built 60 to 70 years ago— these outdated buildings need important health and safety repairs. Funds will be used to install air conditioning, fix deteriorating bathrooms and leaky roofs; upgrade fire alarms and security systems; improve plumbing and electrical wiring to increase water conservation and energy efficiency; and make upgrades to meet current handicap accessibility and earthquake safety laws. ^(CAREER) This measure will upgrade and expand career and technical education programs, including agriculture, manufacturing, welding and metal working, mechanics, healthcare, technology skills training, and new careers in the green energy industry. This will ensure that local students who do not go to college have the opportunity to learn valuable job skills and can compete for good-paying jobs when they graduate high school.

86% 82% 80%

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  • Q12. I’m going to read some statements from supporters of THE CLASSROOM EDUCATION, NEIGHBORHOOD SCHOOL REPAIR

AND STUDENT SAFETY MEASURE. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote yes on this ballot measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample

Replacing outdated portables and keeping students safe are also highly convincing themes.

46% 46% 39% 34% 31% 30% 35% 33%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Very Conv.

  • Smwt. Conv.

(PORTABLES) More than 20,000 Fresno Unified students at all grade levels go to class in outdated and deteriorating portables every day, and a quarter of neighborhood elementary schools have more portables than permanent classrooms. Passing this measure will build quality permanent classrooms, science and computer labs, job training classrooms, and improve libraries so students in every neighborhood school have the resources they need to learn. ^(SAFETY) Gangs, drugs and juvenile crime are a major problem in our

  • community. This bond measure will allow programs to be expanded to

increase access to safe, supervised activities that keep young people off the streets, away from drugs and gangs, in school and on track to graduate. (ACCOUNTABILITY) This bond measure is subject to strict accountability requirements, including a public expenditure plan, independent annual audits, review of all spending by an Independent Citizens’ Oversight Committee and the requirement that no money can be spent on administrator salaries or pensions, and all funds must be used locally to improve neighborhood schools. (LOCAL ECONOMY) This measure will strengthen the local economy by protecting local property values. Repairing and upgrading neighborhood schools will also create good-paying local jobs for a number of years. In addition, local contractors and small businesses, stores and service providers will receive much of the money spent on school improvements.

77% 76% 74% 67%

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Yes, a lot 13% Yes, some, 7% Yes, a little 6% No/DK/NA 74%

When asked about lease-leaseback, only 13% say they know “a lot” about it.

Q9.

Have you recently read, seen or heard anything about Fresno Unified School District using a program known as lease-leaseback to build schools?

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43% 25% 5% 2% 6% 13% 6%

0% 15% 30% 45% 60%

Total Yes 74% Total No 20%

Q4 (Split Sample). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure?

Total support for a $225 million bond remains consistent after additional information, but the intensity of support increases.

68%

Definitely yes Probably yes Undecided, lean yes Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no Undecided 53% 17% 5% 4% 3% 13% 6%

0% 15% 30% 45% 60%

Total Yes 75% Total No 19%

70% Initial Vote Vote After Information

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For more information, contact:

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