Summary of presentation COUNTY VARIATION IN THE EARLY STAGES OF - - PDF document

Summary of presentation COUNTY VARIATION IN THE EARLY STAGES OF OREGON DEPENDENCY CASES: CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES Leslie Harris Professor, University of Oregon School of Law Juvenile Court Representation Task Force Nov. 23, 2015 I. Goals of presentation

• a. Show variations in county caseloads and practices in the early stages
• f dependency proceedings (removal, charging, and preadjudication

developments) and some consequences for how families are treated by the system and for the workloads and effectiveness of courts

• b. Then, will talk about what sources of this variation may be
• c. Information presented has been collected as part of research project

being conducted by Prof. Erik Girvan at UO Law School and me II. Based on our data, on a day-to-day basis, most of the time juvenile court judges at shelter hearings are deferring to DHS recommendations. This doesn’t necessarily mean that judges are not exerting influence, since it’s likely that over time the DHS workers in a court learn what the judge expects and conform their recommendations to this. Moreover, at least sometimes lawyers for children, parents and the state are having an impact over time through their advocacy in and out of court. The repeat players at these hearings in a county together shape the norms of when children will be removed and where they will be placed in early stages of

• cases. We are more confident that this collective process is occurring if

the hearings are longer than if they are quite short. The OJD data show that the mean length of shelter hearings varies significantly, ranging from lows of 10 minutes in Josephine and Coos Counties, 11 minutes in Lane County and 12 minutes in Klamath County to highs (in counties with substantial numbers of cases) of 32 minutes in Multnomah County, 21 minutes in Clackamas, and 19 in Jackson. (See table 1) III. So, it is important to look at the decisions that are being made before the shelter hearing that affect placement rates, particularly the rates at which DHS removes children from home and the rates at which dependency petitions are filed. Also important to look at the rates at which petitions are dismissed very early in the case (at or by the time of the adjudicatory

hearing) because it casts light on how the first two decisions are being made.

• A. Data on removal and petition rates, i.e., the number of children

removed per 1,000 children in the county and number of dependency petitions filed per 1,000 children (see table 2)

• 1. First, as expected, there is a very strong correlation between

a county’s removal rate and its dependency petition filing rate

• a. Of the counties with the 11 lowest petition rates, 10 are

in the group with the lowest removal rates.

• b. Similarly, on the high side, Klamath, Malheur, Wasco,

Columbia, Coos, and Lake Counties all have high removal and petition rates.

• c. The correlation is not perfect. In some counties the

petition rates are high compared to the rates of removal (Marion, Harney, Curry, Lane, Grant, Jackson, Lincoln and Baker). Several of these counties have such small removal and petition numbers that this difference may not be meaningful, though, as one or two cases case significantly affect the rate (Harney, Curry, Grant, and Baker). And in Jefferson County, the petition rate is low compared to the removal rate in contrast.

• d. Possible reasons for high petitioning rates: higher

number of cases petitioned although the child is left in the parent’s home or more multiple petitions for one family. The data don’t tell us what’s going on, and further examination is

• warranted. We don’t know if these differences result from

differences in DHS or state’s attorney practices.

• 2. Early dismissal rates by county are shown in table 3. This

rate varies substantially among the counties.

• a. Early dismissal rates range from none in Cook County

to a third of the cases in Yamhill. In four counties a quarter of the cases are dismissed early, and in another four a fifth of the cases are dismissed early.

• b. Early dismissals could occur because there is

insufficient evidence to support the allegations or because an easy nonjudicial resolution is available. Either would suggest the need for better screening before petitions are filed. Alternatively, early dismissals could show very effective early case management.

• B. Factors affecting removal rates and petition rates (child abuse

reporting rates, race and poverty_

• 1. Relationship between child abuse report rates and removal rates

(tables 4 and 5)

• a. Table 4 -- There is a correlation, especially at high and low

ends of the removal rate scale, between rates of reports and rates of removals, but even there there are exceptions. Jefferson, Grant and Douglas have higher removal rates than the child abuse report rates would predict, while Marion, Polk, Multnomah, and especially Linn have lower rates of removal, compared to report rates.

• b. Table 5 -- There is a fairly strong correlation between founded

report rates and removal rates. The outliers on the high side of removal are, again, Jefferson and Douglas Counties, joined by

• Curry. On the low side are once again Multnomah and Linn.

The founded report rates and removal rates in Marion and Polk are more consistent because they have a lower percentage of founded reports than many counties. And even though Harney and Lincoln have pretty high founded rates, their removal rates are not very high.

• 2. Race and poverty are the demographic factors most likely to affect

both removal and petitioning rates

• a. Poverty is positively related to increases in removal rates. (table

6) The correlation was moderate, meaning meaningful but not really

• high. Outliers: Marion, Umatilla and Morrow have high poverty rates but

low removal rates. On the high side, Gilliam, Columbia, Wasco, and Coos all have high removal rates but lower poverty rates. Curry also has a lower poverty rate but moderately high removal rates.

• b. Race and removal rates (table 7) Overall, counties with the

highest percentages of white people have the highest removal rates. Increased removal rates are not associated with increases in the percentage of the population that is Black, Native American or Hispanic. (Note that all counties with largest percentage of Blacks are among the largest in population, which have lower rates except for Lane.) However, the combination of a higher poverty rate and a higher rate of Black people or Hispanics produced increases in removal rates. There is some suggestion that counties with relatively higher populations of Native Americans tend to have higher removal rates, but because the percentage

• f population that is Native American is so small, hard to be sure.

• 3. So, likely that poverty and higher rates of minorities in population

have some impact on removal and petitions, especially poverty, as

• expected. But the correlations are not very high, meaning that we need to

look beyond these demographic factors to explain differences in county removal and petitioning rates.

• C. Preliminary findings from the data we collected by looking at files in

courts in four counties.

• 1. Correlations between removal and petitioning rates and the

allegations in the petitions: Three of the major types of allegations are domestic violence, drug involvement of some kind, and mental health. Even in these four counties, there is substantial variation in how often these allegations are made in petitions.

• a. There is no obvious correlation between allegations and

removal rates, but there is with petitioning rates. The county with the highest petitioning rate has a significantly higher percentage of allegations of mental health problems and medium high levels of the

• ther two kinds of allegations. The county with the lowest petitioning

rate has the lowest rate of drug allegations but the highest of DV

• allegations. The two in-between counties, like the highest county,

have high rates of drug allegations but are quite different from each

• ther on both DV and mental health allegations.
• b. So, it appears that higher rates of drug allegations are

associated with higher rates of petitioning but not removal, and it seems mental health allegations have an impact on petitioning rates, but the specifics are not clear.

• 2. Correlations between removal and filing rates and socioeconomic

factors: In County Y a high filing rate is associated with a high poverty rate and lower median household income. Similarly, County Z, with its low rates, also has a relatively lower poverty rate and, significantly, a higher median household income. Overall, it appears that there may be some relationship between lower removal and filing rates and median household income, but no relationship with unemployment rates.

• IV. Implications for policies regarding attorneys

Table I. Average Shelter Hearing Time by County (OJD data) Court SH Time Baker 45 Benton 30 Clackamas 21 Clatsop 31 Columbia 16 Coos 10 Crook 16 Curry 18 Deschutes 22 Douglas 19 Gilliam County 12 Grant 73 Harney 67 Hood River NA Jackson 19 Jefferson 19 Josephine 10 Klamath 12 Lake 23 Lane 11 Lincoln 23 Linn 16 Malheur 31 Marion 13 Morrow County NA Multnomah 32 Polk 27 Sherman County NA Tillamook 56 Umatilla 44 Union 43 Wallowa 15 Wasco 65 Washington 16 Wheeler NA

County Yamhill 16

Table 2. Removal rates, total petitions, and petition rates Sorted by removal rate Court remove/1000 petitions 2014 petitions/1,000children Wallowa 0.8 2 1.6 Hood River 1.41 8 1.41 Yamhill 1.64 40 1.68 Washington 1.67 291 2.13 Benton 1.83 37 2.51 Deschutes 2.26 88 2.43 Clackamas 2.35 289 3.31 Marion 2.59 418 5.04 Umatilla 2.66 56 2.81 Polk 3.21 74 4.09 Multnomah 3.48 587 3.84 Linn 3.83 127 4.55 Tillamook 4.12 22 4.53 Union 4.78 38 6.72 Crook 5.43 20 4.93 Jefferson 5.46 17 3.2 Harney 5.46 16 10.92 Curry 5.69 41 11.67 Clatsop 6.26 66 8.99 Douglas 6.51 170 8.13 Lane 6.54 709 10.4 Grant 6.61 14 10.29 Jackson 6.89 429 9.69 Lincoln 6.91 74 9.3 Josephine 7.19 144 8.77 Baker 7.42 41 13.23 Klamath 8.56 227 15.93 Malheur 8.59 71 9.23 Wasco 10.74 71 12.5 Columbia 10.81 149 13.31 Coos 11.36 149 12.92 Lake 11.37 25 17.77 Key: Blue = r rate less than 412 Green = rate between 44.12 and 8.2 Red = rate greater than 8.2

Table 3. Rates at which petitions are dismissed before or at adjudication

Court Petition Dismissal Rate Crook Josephine 3% Tillamook 7% Harney 7% Malheur 7% Wasco 7% Columbia 9% Lane 10% Deschutes 11% Umatilla 11% Clatsop 11% Multnomah 12% Jefferson 12% Grant 13% Jackson 13% Polk 14% Marion 14% Clackamas 15% Douglas 15% Lincoln 15% Coos 15% Klamath 15% Washington 20% Benton 22% Linn 22% Curry 22% Union 24% Baker 24% Lake 24% Hood River 25% Yamhill 35% Wallowa 50%

Table 4. Child abuse reports and removal rates Sorted by number of reports Court Reports Reports/1,000 cFounded %founded Removalrate Baker 122 39.38 46 38 7.42 Benton 312 21.20 63 20 1.83 Clackamas 2,052 23.50 458 22 2.35 Clatsop 284 38.67 63 22 6.26 Columbia 569 50.81 209 37 10.81 Coos 515 44.65 139 27 11.36 Crook 167 41.20 53 32 5.43 Curry 112 31.89 19 17 5.69 Deschutes 1,047 28.88 229 22 2.26 Douglas 620 29.66 152 25 6.51 Grant 37 27.19 12 32 6.61 Harney 53 36.18 21 40 5.46 Hood River 111 19.53 36 32 1.41 Jackson 1,600 36.12 488 31 6.89 Jefferson 134 25.23 28 21 5.46 Josephine 857 52.19 205 24 7.19 Klamath 827 58.03 194 23 8.56 Lake 174 123.67 35 20 11.37 Lane 2,200 32.28 623 28 6.54 Lincoln 348 43.75 118 34 6.91 Linn 1,157 41.46 239 21 3.83 Malheur 323 42.02 104 32 8.59 Marion 2,471 29.81 514 21 2.59 Multnomah 5,354 35.06 1,250 23 3.48 Polk 580 32.09 101 17 3.21 Tillamook 307 63.26 58 19 4.12 Umatilla 530 26.60 107 20 2.66 Union 213 37.68 65 31 4.78 Wallowa n/a n/a 8 #VALUE! 0.8 Wasco 159 28.00 57 36 10.74 Washington 2,405 17.58 628 26 1.67 Yamhill 631 26.49 75 12 1.64 Key: Blue = Removal rate of < 4/1,000 children Green = Removal rate of 4‐ to 7/1,000 children Red = Removal rate of more than 7/1,000 children

Table 5.Founded child abuse reports/1000 children and removals/1000 children, sorted by founded percentages Court Reports Founded %founded Founded rpt/1000 Removalrate Yamhill 631 75 12 3.15 1.64 Benton 312 63 20 4.28 1.83 Washington 2,405 628 26 4.59 1.67 Clackamas 2,052 458 22 5.25 2.35 Jefferson 134 28 21 5.27 5.46 Umatilla 530 107 20 5.37 2.66 Curry 112 19 17 5.41 5.69 Polk 580 101 17 5.59 3.21 Marion 2,471 514 21 6.20 2.59 Deschutes 1,047 229 22 6.32 2.26 Hood River 111 36 32 6.33 1.41 Douglas 620 152 25 7.27 6.51 Multnomah 5,354 1,250 23 8.18 3.48 Linn 1,157 239 21 8.56 3.83 Clatsop 284 63 22 8.58 6.26 Grant 37 12 32 8.82 6.61 Lane 2,200 623 28 9.14 6.54 Wasco 159 57 36 10.04 10.74 Jackson 1,600 488 31 11.02 6.89 Union 213 65 31 11.50 4.78 Tillamook 307 58 19 11.95 4.12 Coos 515 139 27 12.05 11.36 Josephine 857 205 24 12.48 7.19 Crook 167 53 32 13.08 5.43 Malheur 323 104 32 13.53 8.59 Klamath 827 194 23 13.61 8.56 Harney 53 21 40 14.33 5.46 Lincoln 348 118 34 14.84 6.91 Baker 122 46 38 14.85 7.42 Columbia 569 209 37 18.66 10.81 Lake 174 35 20 24.86 11.37 Wallowa n/a 8 #VALUE! n/a 0.8 Key: Blue = Removal rate of < 4/1,000 children Green = Removal rate of 4‐ to 7/1,000 children Red = Removal rate of more than 7/1,000 children

Table 6.Removal rates, race and poverty, sorted by poverty rate Blue‐‐ less than 4.2, Green = 4.2 to 8.2, Red = greater than 8.2

County RemRate White Black NatAM Asian Islander Mixed Race Hispanic Poverty 1.50% 19% 2.70% 32.40% 15.40% Malheur 8.59 63.10% 0.70% 18.50% 2.10% 32.80% 0.30% 1.80% 0.10% Morrow 4.1 63.90% 0.20% 0.50% 0.60% 0.10% 1.50% 0.80% 0.80% 2.10% 4.40% 14.90% Jefferson 5.46 58.10% 0.70% 14.80% Harney 5.46 91.30% 0.50% 3.30% 0.80% 0.20% 1% 0.40% 0.10% 1.90% 7.20% 15% 3.50% 25.20% 14.60% Crook 5.43 88.60% 0.10% 14.50% Umatilla 2.66 68% 0.40% 2.20% 0.70% 0.10% 1% 0.80% 4.10% 5.10% 3.30% 6.80% 14.30% Douglas 6.51 88.90% 0.20% 14.20% Josephine 7.19 87.60% 0.10% 1.40% 0.30% 1.40% 0.50% 0.20% 3.50% 7.30% 3.30% 7.80% 14.20% Lake 11.37 86.80% 0.50% 14.10% Clatsop 6.26 86.10% 0.60% 0.40% 1.10% 0.10% 0.60% 1.90% 0.40% 3.50% 25.10% 3.80% 11.60% 13.90% Marion* 2.59 66.80% 0.80% 13.80% Jackson 6.89 81.50% 0.80% 0.30% 0.80% 0.50% 0.20% 3% 3.20% 2.30% 2.50% 13.40% Grant 6.61 95.10% 0.30% 13.30% Wheeler NA 88.60% 0.40% 0.10% 0.50% 1.90% 4.60% 12.80% 2.10% 8.20% 13% Polk 3.21 78.40% 0.20% 12.80% Linn 3.83 86% 0.20% 1.20% 1.50% 0.20% 1.80% 0.10% 3.70% 4.90% 3.10% 4.30% 12.80% Sherman NA 98.40% 0.10% 12.80% Union 4.78 90.40% 0.50% 0.40% 0.90% 0.80% 0.90% 2.40% 0.30% 3.80% 7.90% 4.10% 10.90% 11.90% Lane 6.54 82.90% 1% 11.70% Mltnmah 3.48 70.50% 5.30% 0.50% 6.50% 0.50% 1.30% 0.50% 2% 3.50% 4.70% 11.70% 11.70% Baker 7.42 92.30% 0.30% 11.60% Klamath 8.56 79.80% 0.50% 2.30% 0.90% 0.40% 0.60% 1.40% 0.30% 1.60% 7.50% 3.60% 8.20% 11.30% Deschutes 2.26 85.80% 0.30% 10.70% Lincoln 6.91 82.80% 0.30% 2.50% 1.30% 0.20% 0.50% 0.10% 0.10% 2.10% 2.50% 2.90% 5.80% 10.70% Wallowa 0.8 95.70% 0.40% 10.70% Coos 11.36 86.30% 0.60% 3% 1.20% 0.20% 4.20% 1.10% 0.60% 16% 3.60% 6.10% 10.20% Wasco 10.74 76% 0.30% 10% Curry 5.69 88% 1.90% 0.50% 1.10% 0.70% 0.20% 3.50% 15.20% 3.10% 7% 9.70% Yamhill 1.64 77.40% 0.70% 8.90% Benton 1.83 82.70% 1.20% 0.60% 5.40% 0.20% 1.30% 0.90% 0.20% 3.20% 4.40% 1.30% 9.50% 8.70% Columbia 10.81 89.40% 0.10% 8% Tillamook 4.12 86% 0.30% 1.10% 1.10% 0.60% 0.10% 2.10% 1.80% 29.70% 3.60% 15.90% 7.90% Hood River 1.41 64.30% 0.60% 6.70% Washington 1.67 67.40% 1.90% 0.40% 8.80% 0.50% 0.30% 3.90% 0.20% 2.90% 8% 1.20% 8.10% 5.60% Clackamas 2.35 82.10% 0.90% Gilliam 35.33 88.10% 0.50% 0.80% 0.30%

Table 7.Removal rates, race and poverty, sorted by percentage of population that is white Blue‐‐ less than 4.2, Green = 4.2 to 8.2, Red = greater than 8.2

County RemRate White Black NatAM Asian Islander Mixed Race Hispanic Poverty 3% 3.20% 2.10% 2.50% 10.70% Wallowa 0.8 95.70% 0.40% 0.50% 0.10% 0.10% 0.50% 0.20% 2% 3.50% 11.70% Grant 6.61 95.10% 0.30% 14.90% Baker 7.42 92.30% 0.30% 1.30% 0.50% 3.30% 0.80% 0.20% 2.10% 4.40% 13.80% 3.10% 4.30% 12.80% Harney 5.46 91.30% 0.50% 8.90% Union 4.78 90.40% 0.50% 0.40% 0.90% 0.80% 1.30% 0.90% 0.20% 3.20% 4.40% 4.10% 5.10% 14.50% Columbia 10.81 89.40% 0.10% Douglas 6.51 88.90% 0.20% 1% 0.80% 1.90% 7.20% 14.80% 5.60% Crook 5.43 88.60% 0.10% 1% 0.40% 0.10% 0.80% 0.30% 1.20% 8.10% 3.60% 6.10% 10.20% Gilliam 35.33 88.10% 0.50% 14.30% Curry 5.69 88% 1.90% 0.50% 1.40% 0.30% 3.30% 6.80% 3.50% 7.30% 14.20% Josephine 7.19 87.60% 0.10% 10.70% Lake 11.37 86.80% 0.50% 1.40% 0.50% 0.20% 3% 1.20% 0.20% 2.90% 5.80% 3.30% 7.80% 14.20% Coos 11.36 86.30% 0.60% 8.70% Clatsop 6.26 86.10% 0.60% 0.40% 1.10% 0.10% 1.10% 1.10% 0.60% 1.30% 9.50% 2.10% 8.20% 13% Tillamook 4.12 86% 0.30% 11.60% Linn 3.83 86% 0.20% 1.20% 1.50% 0.20% 0.60% 1.40% 0.30% 1.60% 7.50% 3.80% 7.90% 12.80% Deschutes 2.26 85.80% 0.30% 11.30% Lane 6.54 82.90% 1% 0.90% 2.40% 0.30% 2.50% 1.30% 0.20% 3.60% 8.20% 3.10% 7% 9.70% Lincoln 6.91 82.80% 0.30% 6.70% Benton 1.83 82.70% 1.20% 0.60% 5.40% 0.20% 0.30% 3.90% 0.20% 2.90% 8% 3.80% 11.60% 13.90% Clackamas 2.35 82.10% 0.90% 11.70% Jackson 6.89 81.50% 0.80% 0.30% 0.80% 2.30% 0.90% 0.40% 4.70% 11.70% 4.60% 12.80% 13.30% Klamath 8.56 79.80% 0.50% 10% Polk 3.21 78.40% 0.20% 0.50% 1.90% 1.10% 0.70% 0.20% 3.50% 15.20% 16% 10.70% Yamhill 1.64 77.40% 0.70% 11.90% Wasco 10.74 76% 0.30% 4.20% 1.10% 0.60% 0.50% 6.50% 0.50% 4.10% 10.90% 3.50% 25.20% 14.60% Mltnmah 3.48 70.50% 5.30% 7.90% Umatilla 2.66 68% 0.40% 2.20% 0.70% 0.10% 0.40% 8.80% 0.50% 3.60% 15.90% 3.50% 25.10% 14.10% Washington 1.67 67.40% 1.90% 8% Marion* 2.59 66.80% 0.80% 0.60% 1.90% 0.40% 0.10% 2.10% 1.80% 29.70% 2.70% 32.40% 15.40% Hood River 1.41 64.30% 0.60% 18.50% Morrow 4.1 63.90% 0.20% 0.50% 0.60% 0.10% 0.30% 1.80% 0.10% 2.10% 32.80% 1.50% 19% 15% Malheur 8.59 63.10% 0.70% Jefferson 5.46 58.10% 0.70% 1.50% 0.80% 0.80%

Table 8. Removal and petitioning rates/1,000 children and allegations in petitions County Removal Rate Petition rate DV Drugs Mental Health W 6.54 10.4 27.5% 69% 48% X 3.83 4.55 15% 71% 12% Y 6.26 8.99 26% 79% 31.5% Z 3.48 3.84 33% 59% 35%

Table 9. Removal and petitioning rates/1,000 children and socioeconomic status measures County Removal Rate Petition rate Hsld Poverty Unemploymt Income rate W 6.54 10.4 $43,459 12,8% 5,7% X 3.83 4.55 $45,130 13% 6.5% Y 6.26 8.99 $43,065 14.2% 6% Z 3.48 3.84 $54,024 11,9% 6.3%