Study Basin Study Team Meeting May 31, 2018 Monterey Peninsula - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study Basin Study Team Meeting

May 31, 2018

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Meeting Purpose

• Provide update on activities

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

• Basin study overview
• Task 1: Orientation, kick-off, and review of background information
• Task 3: Objectives/metrics (acceptance of objectives)
• Task 4: Climate change/sea level rise
• Task 5: Study scenarios
• Task 6: Modeling tools
• Summary of future tasks
• Update on study schedule

Meeting Agenda

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Basin Study Overview

Stakeholder processes

• 1. Develop

Study Metrics

• 4. Develop

Modeling Tools & Inputs Orientation, meetings, background

• 6. Develop

Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies

• 5. Evaluate

Supplies, Demands & Operations

• 7. Evaluate

Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies

• 8. Basin

Study Report

• 3. Develop

Study Scenarios 2. Characterize Climate Change

SCRBS Sequence of Tasks

Sequence of tasks that rely on input from preceding tasks

9. Communicati

• n & Outreach

Plan

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Stakeholder processes

• 1. Develop

Study Metrics

• 4. Develop

Modeling Tools & Inputs Orientation, meetings, background

• 6. Develop

Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies

• 5. Evaluate

Supplies, Demands & Operations

• 7. Evaluate

Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies

• 8. Basin

Study Report

• 3. Develop

Study Scenarios 2. Characterize Climate Change

Tasks Requiring Technical Input by Study Partners

9. Communicati

• n & Outreach

Plan

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Task 1. Review of Background Data

Review of Cost Share Studies

• Proposed cost share studies

–

Studies completed April 2014 and later

–

2015 Basin Study proposal

• 11 studies plus staff resources
• $3.2 million

–

Revised cost share studies

• 13 studies plus staff resources
• $3.7 million

–

Studies prior to April 2014 separate list

• $3.3 million
• Summarized cost share studies described in table format

–

Report description

–

Background on study area

–

Water supplies

–

Water demands

–

Strategies

• Draft technical memorandum released March 28, 2018
• Not a static list
• Comments?

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Task 3 Objectives and Metrics

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

• Objectives are needed to evaluate adaptation and mitigation strategies
• Early identification of objectives to ensure modeling and analyses will

provide needed information

• TM No. 1 Study Metrics identified proposed study objectives
• We are seeking your comments and approval to proceed

Approach to Basin Study Objectives

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Key Terms

• Objectives:

Essential reasons for & purposes of an organization or activity in broad, inclusive terms.

• Performance Measures (Metrics):

Indicators of how well the organization is achieving its Objectives. Should be quantifiable criteria for assessing performance.

• Performance Targets:

Quantified & agreed-upon levels of performance that indicate Objectives are being achieved.

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

• The Basin Study must primarily satisfy the requirements of the Federal

legislation that authorized the Basin Study program.

• Basin Study also addresses local water resources objectives that have

been identified within the study area.

• Objectives have been identified at the local level through:

– IRWMPs – Existing groundwater management plans – Sustainability Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) requirements.

Approach to Developing Study Objectives

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

• IRWMPs:

– Monterey Peninsula, Carmel Bay, and South Monterey Bay – Greater Monterey County – San Luis Obispo County

• Groundwater Management Plans

– Monterey Groundwater Management Plan – Paso Robles Basin Groundwater Management Plan

• SGMA

– Sustainable Management Criteria BMP – List of “undesirable results”

Sources of Local Objectives

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Category Objective Performance measure

Water supplies and demands

Improve reliability and sustainability

Frequency, duration, and extent of shortfalls

Diversify supplies

Number of sources of supply and magnitude

Maximize conservation

Water demand compared to demand target

Groundwater management

Attain or maintain groundwater levels and storage

Groundwater elevation and volume in storage

Reduce/prevent seawater intrusion

Distance inland from coast

Maintain water quality

Actual water quality compared to criteria

Prevent land subsidence

Amount of subsidence

Attain or maintain beneficial use of interconnected surface water

Amount and direction of interflow

Flood protection

Prevent damage to urban areas and agriculture

Flow levels compared to maximum allowable flows Damage costs compared to baseline

Climate change

Understand and plan for climate change impacts

Met by Basin Study

Water quality

Drinking water standards

Actual water quality compared to standards

Waste discharge criteria

Actual water quality compared to standards

Reuse criteria

Actual water quality compared to standards

Environmental

Invasive species management

Extent of invasive species

Maintain species and habitat

Amount of species and protected and improved habitat

Maintain instream flows

Instream flows compared to baseline

Power/energy

No impact to existing hydropower generation

Change in output

Energy efficiency

Level of demands

Stakeholder support and regional collaboration

Collaboration between urban, rural, and agricultural, as well as regional, state, and federal entities

Extent of collaboration and support

Cost effective adaptive management strategies

Identify effective adaptation and mitigation strategies

Extent of effectiveness

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

• Metrics are quantifiable outputs from the modeling and technical analysis
• “Metrics” address the “Performance Measures” of each “Objective”
• Metrics will identify how well a mitigation measure meets a “Performance

Target”

• TM No. 1 identified the proposed Metrics to be measured in the models

“Metrics” Identified in TM No. 1

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

• Table 7. Components of Basin Study Climate Metrics: Climate Variable,

Spatial Scale, Temporal Scale, and Statistic

– Table 8. Geographic Areas Considered in Computing Basin Study Climate Metrics – Table 9. Weather Station Locations Considered in Computing Basin Study Climate

Metrics

• Table 10. Water Demand Metrics
• Table 11. Water Supply Metrics
• Table 12. Water Management Metrics
• Table 13. Basin Study Objectives and Associated Metrics

Metrics Provided by the Modeling Tools

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

• The metrics presented TM No. 1 are compared to the Objectives in Table

13 to see the extent that the metrics serve to measure the success of strategies in meeting objectives

• Table 13 Excerpt:

Metrics Correlated to Proposed Objectives

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Discussion, comments, or concerns with the objectives?

• Please review the final draft of TM No. 1 that is forthcoming
• The Project Team needs to proceed with the proposed objectives

– Incorporate quantifiable objectives in the models – Develop Performance Measures to be applied to qualitative objectives – Develop screening approach for mitigation actions

“Approval” of Objectives

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Task 4 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Why consider climate change?

• Climate is a major driver of

water supply and demand

• Overwhelming scientific

consensus that climate is changing and will continue to change

• Climate change will impact

key drivers of water supply and demand

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Climate Change vs. Climate Variability

• Climate Variability

Natural fluctuations from season to season, year to year – no change in long- term climate statistics (stationarity).

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Climate Change vs. Climate Variability

• Climate Variability

Natural fluctuations from season to season, year to year – no change in long- term climate statistics (stationarity).

• Climate Change

Trend in climate conditions – change in long-term climate statistics (non- stationarity).

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Climate Change vs. Climate Variability

NOAA

• Climate Variability

Natural fluctuations from season to season, year to year – no change in long- term climate statistics (stationarity).

• Climate Change

Trend in climate conditions – change in long-term climate statistics (non- stationarity).

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Development of Global Climate Projections

Initial Conditions GHG Emissions / Atmospheric Composition (time-varying)

Global Climate Model

Boundary Conditions

Projected (Simulated) Future Climate Conditions

NOAA

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Development of Global Climate Projections

Initial Conditions GHG Emissions / Atmospheric Composition (time-varying)

Global Climate Model

Boundary Conditions

Projected (Simulated) Future Climate Conditions

NOAA

Estimate of Atmospheric, Land, & Ocean Conditions at Start of Simulation Climate VARIABILITY is sensitive to initial conditions

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Development of Global Climate Projections

Initial Conditions GHG Emissions / Atmospheric Composition (time-varying)

Global Climate Model

Boundary Conditions

Projected (Simulated) Future Climate Conditions

NOAA

Reflects assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions (population, industry, technology, policy/regulation, etc) Climate VARIABILITY and CHANGE are both sensitive to emissions/composition

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Development of Global Climate Projections

Downscaled ~100 km Grid ~10 km Grid GCM projections are downscaled for use in impact analyses

• Improve spatial

resolution

• Resolve local-scale

spatial and variability

• Remove biases due to

GCM resolution, incomplete physics

NOAA

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Climate Projection Datasets

CMIP3

• Completed in 2005
• 23 GCMs, 16 Modeling Centers, 12 Countries
• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (2007)

** There was no CMIP4!

CMIP5

• Completed in 2012
• 61 GCMs, 27 Modeling Centers, 15 Countries
• IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (2013)

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Climate Projection Datasets

LOCA: Localized Constructed Analogs

• CMIP5
• 64 projections

➢ 32 models ➢ 2 emissions scenarios ➢ 1 projection per model/scenario combo

• 1/16° grid (~6 km)

BCSD-5: Bias-Correction & Spatial Disaggregation

• CMIP5
• 234 projections

➢ 37 models ➢ 4 emissions scenarios ➢ multiple projections for some model/scenarios

• 1/8° grid (~12 km)

MACA: Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs

• CMIP5
• 40 projections

➢ 20 models ➢ 2 emissions scenarios ➢ 1 projection per model/scenario combo

• 1/16° grid (~6 km)

BCSD-3: Bias-Correction & Spatial Disaggregation

• CMIP3
• 112 projections

➢ 16 models ➢ 3 emissions scenarios ➢ multiple projections for some model/scenarios

• 1/8° grid (~12 km)

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Projected Changes: Basin Average

• Precipitation increases in some projections,

decreases in others – no clear consensus

• Many projections show an increase in variability and

extremes

• Potential impacts on supply – floods and droughts
• Temperature increases in all projections – strong

consensus

• Many projections also show an increase in

variability and extremes

• Potential impacts on demand – esp. ag demand

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Change in Monthly Averages Relative to 1980-2010

Projected Changes: Sub-Area Averages

2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Change in Monthly Averages Relative to 1980-2010

Projected Changes: Sub-Area Averages

2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Projected Changes: Spatial Patterns

Percent change in water-year average precipitation (relative to 1980-2009) (median of 64 LOCA projections)

Change [%]

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Projected Changes: Spatial Patterns

Percent change in water-year average temperature (relative to 1980-2009) (median of 64 LOCA projections)

Change [˚C]

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

• Objective: Distill large number of climate projections into a manageable

number of scenarios for detailed analysis.

• Approach: Combination of ensemble-informed and transient methods
• Develop time-varying climate change signal from

selected subsets of climate projections

• Impose climate change signal on observed historical

climate variability

Development of Climate Scenarios (Ongoing)

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Development of Climate Scenarios (Ongoing)

Select Subsets of Projections Compute Climate Change Signal for each Scenario (by grid cell and month)

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Sea Level Rise (Ongoing)

• Two main drivers:

– Melting of glaciers and ice sheets – Thermal expansion of seawater

• Both drivers are strongly associated with

change in global temperature

• Currently reviewing recently updated

sea level projections for California

• Sea level scenarios will be paired with

climate scenarios based on projected temperature change

https://www.nap.edu/read/13389/chapter/3

Observed Trend: 1.5 mm/yr (5.9 in/100 yr)

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Task 5 Study Scenarios

Study Scenarios

• Develop three future socioeconomic scenarios (for today’s presentation)

– Reflect a range of potential future 2100 conditions

• Urban
• Agriculture
• Develop five future climate scenarios (future presentation)
• Develop five future sea level scenarios (future presentation)

Socioeconomic Scenarios

• What we have to do:

– Project through 2100 a range of potential:

• Population
• Agricultural land use
• Urban water demand
• Agricultural water demand
• High, middle and low estimates
• How are we going to do this?

– Look at example studies – Look at historical trends – Identify other relevant studies and data sources – Obtain input from Basin Study Partners – Prepare strawman white paper for review

Example – Pacific Institute, 2012

Example– Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers Basin Study, 2016

• Scenarios to 2100

– Expanded growth

• High population growth rate, low urban density

– Current trends

• Current population growth and land use changes
• Extend DOF 2050 projection to 2100

– Slow growth

• Low population growth rate, high urban density

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Example– Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers Basin Study, 2016

Population Irrigated Land Area Central Valley population projected to increase by 9 M by 2100 in Current Trends Irrigated acreage projected to decline for all scenarios

Expanded Growth Current Trends Slow Growth Tulare San Joaquin Sacramento

Example - California Water Plan Update 2013

• 2050 projection
• 3 population growth estimates
• 3 views of future development density
• Projections made for Central Coast HR

California Water Plan Update 2018 – Growth Scenarios

• Future scenarios to 2100
• Population and land use will be

based on Central Valley Basin Study

• Initial population projection

released

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

• Dept. of Finance Population, Monterey and

San Luis Obispo Counties

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Population

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Population Annual Growth Rate, Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties

• 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059

Annual change, %

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Historical Data - DWR Agricultural and Water Use Estimates

Detailed Analysis Units

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Irrigated Crop Area in Basin Study per DWR

• 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Irrigated Crop Are, acres

USGS California Land-change Projections

• USGS 1970 to 2101 modeled projections of land use

– Land Use and Climate Scenario Simulator (LUCASS) – Business as usual

• high, medium, and low growth rate
• agricultural contraction and expansion
• Urbanization

– Modified business as usual

USGS California Land-change Projections

Required Model Tool Data for Socioeconomic Scenarios

• Urban Demands

– Population – Per capita water use

• Agricultural Demands

– Cropped area – Crop distribution

• Number of data sources

– USGS 2100 projection – California Water Plan

• Local study partner involvement

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Task 6 Model Tools

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

General Modeling Approach

• Boundary

Inflows

Watershed Model

• Changes in Aquifer

Storage and Surface Water

Groundwater Model

Models hydrologically connected through boundary conditions (e.g., Paso Robles to Salinas Valley). Models operationally connected through cross basin ASR and reservoir operations.

Climate Land Use Projects Operations

Model Metrics

Coupled Hydrologic Models

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Map of Modeled Areas

Hydrologic Model Boundaries

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Watershed Models

• MPWMD has developed PRMS Model for Carmel River Basin
• USGS Has developed HSPF model for Paso Robles Salinas Valley (PRSV-

HSPF)

• San Luis Obispo County (Geoscience) has developed a HSPF model for the

Paso Robles Watershed Modifications for SCRBS

• PRSV-HSPF will be extended to cover Monterey Peninsula
• PRSV-HSPF will be coupled to Paso Robles Groundwater Basin

to provide consistent approach for entire watershed

Watershed models provide boundary conditions to groundwater basins for each simulation

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Groundwater Basin Models

• MPWMD has developed a Groundwater-Surface Water Flow Model

(GSFLOW) for Carmel River Basin

• USGS Has developed a One-Water model (MODFLOW-OWHM) model for

Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin (SVIHM)

• San Luis Obispo County (Geoscience) has developed a MODFLOW-2005

model for the Paso Robles Groundwater Basin Modifications for SCRBS

• Seaside basin will be examined as subdomain of SVIHM
• Paso Robles Groundwater Basin will be converted to One-Water

to compute agricultural demands

Groundwater basin models examine basin response to study scenarios

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Salinas\Seaside Basin Models

• USGS has developed an Integrated Hydrologic Model from 1967-2014
• Includes Seaside Basin as a subdomain to be analyzed separately.
• Integrated model has two components
• Watershed model PRSV-HSPF with 576 Hydrologic Response Units

(HRUs)

• One-Water Hydrologic Model with 600 X 600 ft uniform model grid
• USGS has added a reservoir operations framework to SVIHM with the

current configuration of San Antonio and Nacimiento Reservoirs.

• USGS has embedded the current operational rules for the reservoirs into

the reservoir operations framework (e.g., Flood Releases, Conservation, Salinas River Diversion Facility).

Salinas Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHM) will be used for the Basin Study

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Paso Robles Basin Model

• Geoscience developed a hydrologic model from 1981-2011
• Agricultural demands specified outside of model
• This approach decouples climate and land use
• USGS is partnering with San Luis Obispo County to
• update the MODFLOW-2005 model to One-Water and
• estimate agricultural demands internally using the MODFLOW

farm process (FMP4)

• Couple the model to PRSV-HSPF for surface water inflow

boundary conditions

A modified version of the Paso Robles Groundwater Basin Model will be used for the Basin Study (PRIHM)

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Carmel Basin Model

• MPWMD and USGS have partnered to develop an

Integrated Hydrologic Model

• GSFLOW model is comprised of Precipitation Runoff

Modeling System (PRMS) and MODFLOW-NWT

Carmel River GSFLOW Model will be used for Basin Study

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Basin Characteristics Model

• Climate data is downscaled to 270m
• maximum temperature (Tmax)
• minimum temperature (Tmin)
• Precipitation
• Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is estimated
• Priestly Taylor
• Bias correction to California Irrigation Management

Information System (CIMIS) station data.

• With solar radiation model that incorporates slope,

aspect, and topographic shading (to define the percentage of sky seen for every grid cell) (Flint and Childs 1987).

• Downscaled using Gradient Inverse Distance Squared (GIDS)

approach (Nalder and Wein, 1998)

Basin Characteristics Model (BCM) tools are used to prepare spatially distributed climate input for hydrologic models

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Study Climate Scenario Implementation

Interpolated to PRSV-HSPF and One-Water Boundary Conditions PRSV-HPSF One-Water

Model Replicate

Mapped to Climate Stations Climate Distributed to HRUs Internally Boundary Conditions GSFLOW

Climate Realization BCM Tools Spatially Distributed PET, Tmax, Tmin, & Precipitation (270m)

Rest of Domain CRB- Only Entire Study Domain

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Coupling Regional Operations

Carmel River Basin (CRB) has diversions to an aquifer storage and recovery system (ASR) in the Seaside Basin which is a part of the SVIHM.

USGS has developed a framework with MPWMD for a feed forward input structure for the Seaside Basin Cal-AM ASR operations.

• Specified flow dependent diversions will be passed as time series to Seaside Basin
• MPWMD will develop a demand time series to recover water from Seaside Basin
• ASR water will be provided to CRB based upon this time series.

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Current Status of Tools

Basin Model Built Model Calibrated Cross-Basin Operations Land Use/Demand Scenarios

SVIHM In Progress Seaside Basin In Progress ASR Operations Monterey Peninsula Adding to PRSV-HSPF In Progress N/A CRB In Progress ASR Operations PRB Waiting on Contract N/A N/A

Model Analysis Tools Conceptual Model Scripting

Computing Workflow Input automation for climate Input automation for scenarios Output analysis for metrics Output analysis for climate Explanation Finished In Progress Not Started Not Applicable N/A

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Summary of Future Tasks

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

• Task 3. Objectives/metrics

–

Release draft TM with consolidated objectives

• Task 4. Climate change/sea level rise

–

Release draft TM

–

Linkage to IRWMPs

• Task 5. Study Scenarios

–

Develop socioeconomic scenarios

• Task 6. Modeling tools

–

Work underway

–

Targeting early 2019 for draft TM

• Task 7. Water supply and demand and operations

–

Start late 2018

• Task 8. Adaptation and mitigation strategies

–

Linkage to DCP input

–

Coordinate with GSAs

• Public outreach

–

Release draft outreach plan

–

Public meeting in October 2018

Upcoming Activities

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Schedule

Metrics TM Draft Climate Change TM Socioeconomic Scenarios Outreach Plan

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt District Monterey County Water Resources Agency San Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWs Monterey One Water Bureau of Reclamation

Salinas and Carmel Basins Study Additional Information:

Reclamation’s Basin Study Web Site: www.usbr.gov/watersmart/bsp/index.html Reclamation Basin Study Contact Information: Arlan Nickel – Project Manager (916) 978-5061 Email: anickel@usbr.gov