Studies on Climate Change and Studies on Climate Change and Related - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 7th AIM International Workshop The 7th AIM International Workshop The 7th AIM International Workshop 15 15 15-

• 17 March 2002

17 March 2002 17 March 2002, , , Ohyama Ohyama Ohyama Memorial Hall Memorial Hall Memorial Hall National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Studies on Climate Change and Studies on Climate Change and Related Activities Related Activities

Tsuneyuki Tsuneyuki Morita Morita

National Institute for Environmental studies, Japan National Institute for Environmental studies, Japan

International Activities International Activities

• IPCC SRSDCC (Jun. 01, Washington)

IPCC SRSDCC (Jun. 01, Washington)

• Energy Modeling Forum (Aug. 01, Snowmass)

Energy Modeling Forum (Aug. 01, Snowmass)

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Oct. 01, (Oct. 01, Capetown Capetown) )

• IPCC TGCIA (November, Barbados)

IPCC TGCIA (November, Barbados)

• Global Modeling Forum (Dec. 01, Macao)

Global Modeling Forum (Dec. 01, Macao)

• Tyndall Center Workshop

Tyndall Center Workshop (Feb. 02, Southampto (Feb. 02, Southampton) n)

Linkages between Climate Change Linkages between Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development Mitigation and Sustainable Development

• Avoided CC impacts
• Costs and distribution of costs
• Ancillary benefits
• Forestry/agriculture impacts
• Environmental & economic policies
• Human and social capital
• Infrastructure
• Innovation and technology

CCM SD policy CCM policy SD

Multiple Users Among Multiple Users Among Conventions Conventions

Ramsar Ramsar CCD CCD FCCC FCCC IPCC IPCC SBSTA CBD CBD

SBSTTA

CST STRP MA

Research, UN Data, National and International Assessments

Socioeconomic Drivers

・ Demographic Change ・ Economic growth/decline ・ Governance ・ Behavior ・ Trade, market,and policy framework ・ Institutional and legal framework ・ Science and Technology

Interventions

Proximate Forces

・ Climate Change ・ Land Use & Cover Change ・ Factor inputs (e.g., irrigation, fertilizers) ・ Pollution ・ Resource Use ・ Nutrient Release ・ Species Introductions

Interventions

Ecosystem Structure, Processes and Resilience

・ Biodiversity ・ Biogeochemical cycling ・ Evolution and speciation ・ Primary production ・ Soil formation ・ Species distribution and population dynamics

Interventions Demand Impacts on Society

Food Security, Health, Employment, Tourism, Vulnerability

Ecosystem Goods and Services

・ Food, Fiber, Fuel ・ Water Supply (Quantify and Quality) ・ Vector Control ・ Carbon sequestration ・ Storm buffering

Supply Feedback

Framework of Ecosystem Assessment

Assessment Outputs Assessment Outputs

• Conceptual Framework (2003)

Conceptual Framework (2003)

• Assessment Reports (2004)

Assessment Reports (2004)

• Sub

Sub-

• global Assessment

global Assessment

• Condition/Trends Assessment

Condition/Trends Assessment

• Scenario Assessment

Scenario Assessment

• Response Options Assessment

Response Options Assessment

• Summary Volume (

Summary Volume (SPMs SPMs of 4 reports)

• f 4 reports)
• Synthesis Reports

Synthesis Reports

• Biodiversity (2004)

Biodiversity (2004)

• Desertification (2005)

Desertification (2005)

• Wetlands (2005)

Wetlands (2005)

• Private Sector (2005)

Private Sector (2005)

• Human Well

Human Well-

• being (2005)

being (2005)

C O 2 E m i s s i o n s

0 . 0 0 2 . 0 0 4 . 0 0 6 . 0 0 8 . 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 1 4 . 0 0 1 6 . 0 0 1 8 . 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 GtC A 1 B - 4 5 0 A I M A 1 T - 4 5 0 M E S S A G E B 1 - 4 5 0 I M A G E B 2 - 4 5 0 M A R I A A 2 - 4 5 0 P E T R O A 1 F I - 4 5 0 M i n i C A M A 1 B - 5 5 0 A I M A 1 T - 5 5 0 M E S S A G E A 2 - 5 5 0 A S F B 2 - 5 5 0 M E S S A G E B 1 - 5 5 0 W

• r l d S c a n

A 1 F I - 5 5 0 M i n i C A M B 1 - 5 5 0 L D N E A 1 B - 6 5 0 A I M A 2 - 6 5 0 P E T R O A 1 F I - 6 5 0 M i n i C A M A 2 - 7 5 0 A S F A 1 F I - 7 5 0 M i n i C A M

S O 2 E m i s s i o n s

0 . 0 0 2 0 . 0 0 4 0 . 0 0 6 0 . 0 0 8 0 . 0 0 1 0 0 . 0 0 1 2 0 . 0 0 1 4 0 . 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 MtS A 1 B - 4 5 0 A I M A 1 T - 4 5 0 M E S S A G E B 1 - 4 5 0 I M A G E B 2 - 4 5 0 M A R I A A 2 - 4 5 0 P E T R O A 1 F I - 4 5 0 M i n i C A M A 1 B - 5 5 0 A I M A 1 T - 5 5 0 M E S S A G E A 2 - 5 5 0 A S F B 2 - 5 5 0 M E S S A G E B 1 - 5 5 0 W

• r l d S c a n

A 1 F I - 5 5 0 M i n i C A M B 1 - 5 5 0 L D N E A 1 B - 6 5 0 A I M A 2 - 6 5 0 P E T R O A 1 F I - 6 5 0 M i n i C A M A 2 - 7 5 0 A S F A 1 F I - 7 5 0 M i n i C A M

Post-SRES scenarios for climate change simulations

CO CO2

2

SOx SOx

Recommendation on new IPCC SRES Recommendation on new IPCC SRES

• Scenarios with a starting year updated from

Scenarios with a starting year updated from 1990 to 2000 1990 to 2000

• More sophisticated socio

More sophisticated socio-

• economic

economic scenarios with scenarios with spatial dynamics spatial dynamics

• Adding other substances, such as

Adding other substances, such as black black carbon, organic carbon, nitrate aerosols, carbon, organic carbon, nitrate aerosols, mineral dust mineral dust

Necessary improvement of post Necessary improvement of post-

• SRES analyses

SRES analyses

• analyses of

analyses of costs and benefits of different time paths costs and benefits of different time paths for for stabilization; stabilization;

• analyses of

analyses of ancillary benefits and costs ancillary benefits and costs, notably those , notably those related to local and regional air pollution (ozone, PM, related to local and regional air pollution (ozone, PM, ammonia, SO ammonia, SO2

2,

, NO NOx

x, etc.);

, etc.);

• implications of stabilization of

implications of stabilization of radiative radiative forcing rather than forcing rather than CO2 concentration CO2 concentration; ;

• detailed analyses of

detailed analyses of land land-

• use policies

use policies accounting for accounting for biofuel biofuel supply in mitigation scenarios and the demand for food, supply in mitigation scenarios and the demand for food, fiber fiber and water resources; and water resources;

• analyses of

analyses of different regional emissions distributions different regional emissions distributions based based

• n different equity principles.
• n different equity principles.

A few proposals for A few proposals for new emission scenario development new emission scenario development

• IPCC TGCIA

IPCC TGCIA

• Kassel

Kassel University University

• Energy Modelling Forum

Energy Modelling Forum

Forum for Globally-Integrated Environmental Assessment Modeling

Environment & Nature Global Economy Human Element

Institutions

Environment & Nature Global Economy Human Element

Institutions

New Modeling Forum for General Environmental Audiences Dutch initiative More attention to sustainability rather than innovation Less focusing on developing regions Qualitative approach want to increase its voice

Keywords in the Tyndall Workshop Keywords in the Tyndall Workshop

• Ancillary benefits and innovation

Ancillary benefits and innovation for the cost reduction of Kyoto for the cost reduction of Kyoto

• Adaptation effects

Adaptation effects for determine for determine the long term stabilization level the long term stabilization level

• f global climate, which is close
• f global climate, which is close

related related to the target for the to the target for the second term commitment second term commitment

Recent trends of IAM research Recent trends of IAM research

• From climate change studies to

From climate change studies to sustainable sustainable development studies development studies

• Increased importance of international IA process,

Increased importance of international IA process, especially on especially on North North-

• South platform to create common

South platform to create common scientific basis scientific basis

• More attention to the

More attention to the international interaction international interaction between between economy and environment economy and environment

• Greater focus on

Greater focus on dynamic spatial economy dynamic spatial economy-

• environment interactions

environment interactions as well as as well as ecosystem ecosystem

• More expectation of

More expectation of innovations innovations such as advanced technology such as advanced technology introduction, environmental industry encouragement, introduction, environmental industry encouragement, consumption shift, and market restructuring consumption shift, and market restructuring

• Necessary response to the policies for

Necessary response to the policies for Kyoto protocol, Kyoto protocol, the the 2 2nd

nd

term commitment, term commitment, and to the and to the new scientific discoveries new scientific discoveries